Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Monday

John McHugo

How will HTS rule Syria?

Yesterday we woke to the astonishing news that the rebels from the Syrian opposition had taken Damascus and President Assad had fled. The joy is huge and infectious, even if tempered with trepidation. In 2007, I was assured by a soldier in Damascus that the Ba’athist regime had the solidity of rock. That could be said to be the line Assad repeated throughout the civil war from 2012 onwards. Yet in a few days from 27 November to 8 December this year, opposition forces spearheaded by HTS – Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (‘the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant’) – swept out of their bases in rebel-held Idlib and the Turkish controlled

Steerpike Steerpike

Suella Braverman’s husband joins Reform

Well, well, well. In a rather curious turn of events, it now transpires that Rael Braverman – husband of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman – has started campaigning for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. How very interesting… Farage took to Twitter to announce that Braverman had not only been canvassing for the party on the streets of Hertfordshire on Sunday, but had actually become a member of the right wing group, noting:  He has received a great reception after joining the fastest growing movement in British politics. Good heavens. It’s certainly a good time to be in Farage’s group after a FindOutNow voting intention survey put Reform in second place, ahead

Sunday

John Raine

Assad’s demise, Isis’s rise?

The Iranian-dominated Shia arc has collapsed. The keystone to the arc was Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the partnership that his father Hafiz al-Assad forged with the Iranian regime in the 1980s.  That alliance gave Tehran for decades its only state-level Arab ally, one that shares a border with Israel.   It was also critical in enabling supply of Hezbollah and providing forward bases and freedom of movement for Islamic Revolutionary Guard personnel. In return Assad’s Syria gained strategic depth in the form of an Islamic partner and patron. The survival of Assad’s Syria was a point of strategic convergence between Russia and Tehran. That triangular relationship proved invaluable in 2015. It was the the IRGC-QF Commander Qasim Soleimani who tipped Russia into saving Assad.  But Iran may no longer be the key player in the region.  With the disappearance of Assad, any hope Tehran

Joe Bedell-Brill

Sunday shows: Rayner ‘welcomes’ fall of Assad

Deputy PM ‘welcomes the news’ that the Assad regime has fallen Rebel forces in Syria have captured Damascus, and Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled the capital, ending a regime that begin in 2000. On Sky News this morning, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner told Trevor Phillips she ‘welcomes that news’, but stressed that a political resolution is needed that protects civilian lives and infrastructure. Rayner said a plan had been in place to make sure any UK citizens were evacuated from Syria ahead of the weekend’s developments. Priti Patel: ‘The Turkish footprint is relevant here’ Trevor Phillips also asked Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel about Syria, and the wider implications

Owen Matthews

Putin’s Middle Eastern house of cards

The Kremlin’s involvement in Syria’s civil war was always, first and foremost, about posing as a great multi-regional power rather than actually being one. Vladimir Putin’s deployment of a single squadron of warplanes to Hmemim airbase in Syria in 2015 brought a gun to a knife-fight. The Assad regime had been fighting insurgents with poison gas and infamous ‘barrel bombs’ rolled out of helicopters. Russian Su-24 and Su-35 fighter-bombers and Kamov helicopter gunships were quickly able to turn the tide against the growing rebellion and undoubtedly saved Bashir al-Assad’s regime. Unlike America’s multi-trillion dollar investment in Iraq and Afghanistan, Putin was able to change the fate of a nation by

Jason M. Brodsky

This is Iran’s annus horribilis

Iran’s Axis of Resistance is falling apart. Israel has significantly degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities and decapitated its leadership. Hamas has been left decimated in Gaza. The regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. Intact for now are the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. Such a situation is not only a product of geopolitical trends but also an indictment of the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. This will necessitate a reorienting of Iranian strategy. 2024 has been Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s annus horribilis. Tehran began this year in a stronger regional position, with Israel seemingly entrapped in an endless conflict with Hamas

Julius Strauss

Syria is up for grabs

After 13 years of war that began with street protests during the heady days of the Arab Spring and morphed into one of the bloodiest civil conflicts in the Middle East’s recent history, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian strongman, collapsed in just over a week. Sunni rebels – some of them former jihadists – who had broken out of the north-west province of Idlib swept into the capital Damascus after overrunning the major cities of Aleppo, Homs and Hama on their way south. On the road into the city witnesses described seeing uniforms, military equipment and even tanks abandoned by the Syrian Army. On the country’s borders, queues

Jonathan Spyer

How Assad fell

The astonishing and abrupt fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus is a moment of historic importance for the Middle East, in which the shifting of tectonic plates can be plainly felt. But which plates in particular? And what are the immediate implications? Firstly, it is important just to contemplate the dimensions of what has just taken place. The Assad regime’s beginning is usually dated to 1970.  In that year Hafez Assad, father of the now deposed Bashar, launched a coup to topple his former ally, Salah Jadid, and proclaimed himself president. His family then ruled Syria, uninterruptedly, until this week. But it’s worth remembering that the Ba’ath party, through which both Assad and

James Snell

Syria is emerging from a nightmare

Gradually, and then suddenly, the regime of Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. This century’s most evil tyrant has fled Syria, and Damascus has fallen to the opponents of the regime. Across the country, a new political reality reigns. In towns and cities across Syria, the regime’s torture chambers are being opened, and the prisons liberated. Men whose adulthoods have been stolen from them by the tyrant are emerging into the fires of day. Brothers are being united after being separated for 40 years. They were separated when one was 18 and the other younger, because the elder of them fell foul of a regime patrol and was taken away for torture

Mark Hollingsworth

The Russian nuclear threat is looming once more

It is 00.40 pm, 26 September 1983. Lieutenant-Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty commander in charge of monitoring the Soviet Union’s early warning satellites designed to identify American missile attacks, is carefully checking his panels. Suddenly, the alarms roar into loud action. The word ‘Launch’ flashes onto his screen in large red letters. For the next 15 seconds, one of the satellites reports that five American Minuteman missiles have been launched and are heading towards the Soviet Union. Based in a secret bunker hidden deep beneath the woods just outside Moscow, Petrov is transfixed and stares at the screen in disbelief and shock. The automatic order to launch in retaliation is also sent to Soviet

Katja Hoyer Katja Hoyer

Olaf Scholz’s dreams of election victory are wishful thinking

Three years ago today, Olaf Scholz was sworn in as Germany’s chancellor. He had narrowly won the election by presenting himself as Angela Merkel’s natural successor. Appearing as the continuity candidate was good enough to clinch it in 2021, but Scholz is unlikely to pull that off again in Germany’s snap election, expected to be held on 23 February next year. Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) appears to have reached a nadir. Polls give it 15 or 16 per cent of the vote share, third place behind the centre-right CDU/CSU in first place and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in second. You’d have to go back to the 19th century

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Will Kemi’s ‘Operation Slow Burn’ help her see off Farage?

It was quite possible that Kemi Badenoch could have proved an instant hit with the British public and taken the Tories straight into a sizeable opinion poll lead. External factors could have fallen in her favour, enabling her not only to capitalise on the unpopularity of Keir Starmer and Labour, but also to win back support from Nigel Farage and Reform. There are several combinations of circumstances which could have led to such an outcome. These versions of the future would have seen Badenoch swiftly become regarded by voters as the obvious Next Big Thing that Britain needs to lift it out of the doldrums, Thatcher-style. But it hasn’t panned

Saturday

Nigel Jones

Will Syria’s new rulers show mercy?

The late Henry Kissinger said of the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s that it was a shame that both sides couldn’t lose. Much the same is true of the current situation in Syria, where the long established regime of the brutal but secular Assad dynasty looks increasingly likely to fall to a sudden Islamist rebel offensive. Syria has been convulsed by a vicious and multi-sided conflict since 2012 when riots against the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad turned into a full-scale civil war. Assad, a London trained ophthalmologist, had reluctantly become the heir apparent to his iron-fisted father Hafez al-Assad (the surname means ‘the lion’) after the death of his more

Carson Becker

How Finland joined the West

Finland’s entry into Nato in 2023 dealt a major blow to Russia in the Baltics. For years, President Putin had warned his Finnish counterparts that a decision to join the alliance would be met with an appropriate response, but the implicit threat has been slow to materialise. In February, Russia reconstituted its Leningrad Military District, a Soviet-era administrative region tasked with defending Russia’s northwestern territories, but otherwise there’s been a palpable quiet in the far north. In recent weeks, this has begun to change. On 18 November, the sole fibre optic cable linking Finland and Germany was severed, and hours after a cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was also cut.

Charlie Gammell

Will the Syrian Civil War create another ISIS?

There are unintended consequences, and then there are unintended consequences. What we are seeing in Syria, as Aleppo and Hama fall (and Homs braces itself) to a coalition of anti-regime forces whose DNA is to be found in al-Qaeda et al, is an unintended consequence of Israel’s bombardment in Syria of Iran-funded pro-Assad groups, and the pulverising of Hezbollah in Lebanon. An unintended consequence of the weakening of Iran and its Axis of Resistance. For the three pillars on which Bashar al-Assad props up (for the time being) his murderous kleptocratic narco-state – Iran, Hezbollah and Russia – are, respectively, on their ‘best’ behaviour in the hope of talks with

Iain Macwhirter

Are the SNP exploiting Labour woes?

13 min listen

The SNP presented their budget this week in Holyrood with the news that all pensioners would receive a winter fuel allowance and a pledge to scrap the two-child benefit cap. Questions remain about how they will make this budget work financially, but it is clear that they have one eye on the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. How could this impact Labour north, and south, of the border? And, after a torrid year for the SNP, can First Minister John Swinney turn things around?  Iain MacWhirter and Lucy Dunn join James Heale to discuss.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Matthew Parris Matthew Parris

Alexandra Shulman, Sean Thomas, Matthew Parris, Adrian Dannatt and Philip Hensher

34 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Alexandra Shulman reads her fashion notebook (1:13); Sean Thomas asks if a demilitarised zone in Ukraine is inevitable (6:02); Matthew Parris argues against proportional representation (13:47); Adrian Dannatt explains his new exhibition Fresh Window: the art of display and display of art (21:46); and Philip Hensher declares he has met the man of his dreams: his Turkish barber (28:17).  Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Sahil Mahtani

We can’t rely on migration to fix the economy

The very wicked French novelist Michel Houellebecq recently asked: “It should be strange for the British: they voted for Brexit to have no more immigrants and you have more?” Yes Michel, it is strange – and not just for Britain. Migration to the western world has reached record levels, despite popular blowback in nearly every country. Migration demonstrably lowered wages for native workers Even excluding refugees (from Ukraine and elsewhere), permanent migration to the OECD hit a new high in 2023. Over a third of OECD countries registered their highest levels ever, particularly the United Kingdom, but also Canada and France. The unlikely key to this story isn’t politicians but economists. There

Leon Mangasarian

How Angela Merkel broke Germany

Angela Merkel, who last month published her memoirs on her 16 years as German chancellor, was a great tactician. But she was dead wrong on many of the strategic questions hurled at Germany during her time in charge. Merkel is the architect of a Germany that’s again the sick man of Europe, now in a second year with a shrinking economy and surging parties on the far-right and far-left. Merkel doesn’t do mea culpas and this has annoyed some reviewers of her book. Those who hoped for admission of failures misunderstand Merkel. She’s a physicist, who disassembles problems before making, what she sees, as fact-based decisions. Her manner of deflecting

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Donald Trump was right about Paris

Donald Trump is in Paris today to attend the official reopening of the renovated Notre Dame cathedral. The president-elect has what could be described as a love-hate relationship with the French capital. He loves the place but it – more precisely its mayor and most of its right-on residents – hates him. This contempt first manifested itself days after he defeated Hillary Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Hundreds of protestors took to the streets of Paris, banging pots and pans and chanting ‘No Trump, no hate, no KKK’ and ‘Hey hey, ho ho, Donald Trump has got to go’. The organisers of the rally listed why they believed Trump