Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

8 Mar 2017

Steerpike

Is David Cameron to blame for Philip Hammond’s Budget blues?

This afternoon Philip Hammond has found himself the subject of much bad press over his decision to break a 2015 Tory manifesto pledge and raise national insurance for the self-employed. But is Hammond the person to blame? Mr S only asks as it turns out that those involved with the 2015 Conservative manifesto might not have put that much thought into the original pledge. Speaking to the Sun‘s Tom Newton Dunn last year, Ameet Gill — David Cameron’s former Head of Strategy — revealed that the promise to not raise National Insurance for five years was only implemented because they had a ‘hole in the grid’: ‘Towards the end of the

Steerpike

George Osborne’s right-hand man gives his Budget verdict: ‘think we can rule out a snap election’

Oh dear. Although today’s Budget was expected to be rather boring, it’s shaping up to be a lot more interesting than Philip Hammond had intended. The Chancellor’s decision to break a 2015 Tory manifesto pledge and raise National Insurance Contributions (Class 4) by two per cent for self-employed workers has left many in uproar. But surely Hammond can rely on former Treasury staff to have his back at this testing time? Perhaps not. Rupert Harrison, George Osborne’s former chief of staff in the Treasury, has offered his snap verdict: While Harrison — who now works alongside Osborne at BlackRock — says the dividend changes are likely to encounter opposition in Tory heartlands. What’s more,

James Forsyth

Philip Hammond must act fast to avoid a repeat of the pasty tax row

The government is in trouble over the National Insurance increase for the self-employed. Journalists are busy pointing out that the Tory manifesto explicitly said that there would be no increases in National Insurance. But Philip Hammond’s allies are—rather absurdly—claiming that the Budget keeps this manifesto promise as the post-election tax lock law only refers to Class One National Insurance contributions, and what is being raised is Class 4 ones. This is the wrong ground for the government to fight on; and they’ll end up losing if they remain camped out here. It is rather ironic that a Budget which promises to clamp down on misleading special offers that take advantage

Ross Clark

Biggest loser from this Budget? The credibility of Tory tax promises

There is a very big winner from today’s budget. Not adults in social care, not schools, but Ukip. Philip Hammond has handed a huge political opportunity: to position itself as the party of the self-employed: the taxi driver, the brickie, the plumber, the small shop-owner. These used to be natural Tories. From today, with Hammond imposing a two per cent extra tax on their income, and breaking a manifesto commitment in the process, they will be looking for a new political home. No wonder Suzanne Evans was tweeting about the change within seconds of it being made. The Treasury’s argument for raising National Insurance Contributions on the self-employed is that

Isabel Hardman

Philip Hammond brews trouble with his National Insurance hike

Philip Hammond had, in his first few months of Chancellor, gained rather a reputation for being an ‘Eeyore’ about the consequences of Brexit. In the run-up to today’s Budget, it was briefed that he would be much more upbeat about things, while also storing up a ‘war chest’ to guard against any future shocks to the economy caused by Britain leaving the European Union. In the event he barely talked about it at all. He told the Chamber that ‘as we start our negotiations to exit the European Union, this Budget takes forward our plan to prepare Britain for a brighter future’, and ’our task today is to take the

Fraser Nelson

Budget 2017 in five graphs

Some thoughts on today’s Budget: Hammond breaks Tory promise not to raise National Insurance. Breaks his word, hits 15pc of workforce, raises a pittance. The pledge was made no fewer than four times in the 2015 Conservative Manifesto: no rises in VAT, income tax or National Insurance. And after the election, a law was then passed to stop tax rises, which I thought odd at the time. Did Osborne really need legislation to restrain himself? If Tories have made a manifesto promise, as solemn a promise as you can get in this kind of world, why pass a law? We now know the answer: manifesto pledges are seen as expendable (at least by

Isabel Hardman

Jeremy Corbyn’s bleak Budget response fails to trouble the Chancellor

Jeremy Corbyn now has more experience of responding to Budgets than the Chancellor of the Exchequer who he stood opposite today. So did the Labour leader offer a good response to Philip Hammond’s statement today? The answer will depend on how you evaluate Budget responses. If you’re expecting the Leader of the Opposition to look like a Prime Minister in waiting, then you’re expecting too much. If you’re measuring him against his own record, which remains largely that of an obscure and unimpressive backbencher who was never promoted for very good reasons, then this was a passable Budget response. It’s been a few years since we had a decent Budget

The Spectator

Philip Hammond’s Budget announcement, full transcript

Mr Deputy Speaker, I report today on an economy that has continued to confound the commentators with robust growth. A labour market delivering record employment. And a deficit down by over two-thirds. As we start our negotiations to exit the European Union, this Budget takes forward our plan to prepare Britain for a brighter future. It provides a strong and stable platform for those negotiations. It extends opportunity to all our young people. It delivers further investment in our public services. And it continues the task of getting Britain back to living within its means. We are building the foundations of a stronger, fairer, more global Britain. Mr Deputy Speaker,

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit breakfast blunder

We all know that Brexit means Brexit – but not if you’re Jeremy Corbyn, it seems. During his response to Philip Hammond’s Budget announcement, the leader of the opposition made a blunder which Mr S suspects he’s not going to be allowed to forget any time soon. ‘Our economy is not prepared for breakfast,’ Corbyn told the Commons – before quickly correcting himself. Mr S does have some sympathy with Corbyn. After all, the Labour leader isn’t the first politician to fall into the trap of equating Brexit with breakfast. Welsh Tory leader Andrew Davies did just that at the Conservative party conference last year when he told delegates: ‘Mark my words,

Isabel Hardman

A perfect example of how Corbyn’s inability to think on his feet lets him down

Today’s Prime Minister’s Questions was a good example of how Jeremy Corbyn’s inability to be nimble on his feet lets him down. The Labour leader had a perfect peg for his questions about social care, which was last night’s leak of recordings in which Surrey Council leader David Hodge spoke of a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’. His first question was a good one, asking the Prime Minister to explain the difference between a ‘sweetheart deal’ and a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’. May denied that there was a special deal for Surrey, and repeated that denial in subsequent answers. But what Corbyn didn’t pick up on was the careful wording of May’s denial. She said:

Steerpike

International Women’s Day: Lord Heseltine mansplains to Theresa May

Given that Theresa May is known to take issue with anything she perceives to be ‘mansplaining’, men are well-advised to refrain from speaking in a condescending manner when in the Prime Minister’s presence. But Lord Heseltine appears to hold no such qualms. After receiving the sack from the government over his Lords rebellion on the Article 50 bill, Michael Heseltine appeared on Sky News to put forward his side of the story. Alas, while explaining that he had never met May, the Conservative peer hit a bum note when he described Brexit as a ‘man-sized job’: ‘I don’t in any way criticise her for this, she’s got a man-sized job to do

Tom Goodenough

What’s in Philip Hammond’s Budget box?

Philip Hammond doesn’t do box office. Unlike his predecessor George Osborne, he doesn’t do burgers either, with his austere pre-budget picture showing the Chancellor looking characteristically gloomy as, we’re told, he prepares Britain to be ‘match fit’ for the future. So what do we know about Hammond’s first – and last – spring Budget? For those who have accused Hammond of being too downbeat, there’ll be some glimmers of hope. It’s expected that the Chancellor’s ‘upbeat assessment’ of Britain’s economic outlook which he will deliver at the despatch box will mean the country’s growth forecast will be revised upwards – giving the Chancellor an extra £12bn to play with over

Tuesday

7 Mar 2017

Katy Balls

Government suffers its second Article 50 defeat in the Lords

Tonight the government suffered its second Article 50 bill defeat in the House of Lords. Peers backed an amendment calling for a ‘meaningful’ parliamentary vote on the final terms of withdrawal from the EU by 366 votes to 268. Heralding the result, Lord Heseltine said Parliament must be the ‘custodian of national sovereignty’. The bill will now return to the Commons where Theresa May will hope to overturn the amendment, along with the issue of guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens. The government had been braced for defeat on both of these issues but regardless this now presents them with a headache — convincing pro-Remain MPs not to rebel. It’s thought May will face the

Nick Cohen

The opposition-shaped hole in British politics

If you want to judge the extent of the crisis that is paralysing the left, look at this morning’s Guardian. On the one hand you have an article from Abi Wilkinson, who tellingly doesn’t even mention the Labour leader’s name. Convincingly to my mind, Wilkinson argues that the May government ought to be in all kinds of trouble. May herself is an evasive and awkward politician. She is presiding over an NHS that has had more austerity than it can stand. The British Red Cross may have been guilty of hyperbole when it said the UK faced a ‘humanitarian crisis’ across the whole of its health service. But individual patients are finding that, as far

Isabel Hardman

Will Theresa May change her mind on an early general election?

Downing Street has rejected William Hague’s call for a snap general election. The former Conservative leader argues in his Telegraph column today that this would ‘strengthen the government’s hand at home and abroad’, but Number 10 says this isn’t something Theresa May ‘plans to do or wishes to do’. Theresa May is often compared to Gordon Brown, but one thing she will have learned from that previous Prime Minister was that to talk about an early election is a very bad idea, especially if it then turns out that it isn’t something that you wish to do either. But is she secretly keen on an early election? Those who are

Emma Simon

What can we expect to see in Philip Hammond’s first – and last – Spring Budget?

After this week, the centrepiece of the financial year is being shunted to the Autumn. Good news, no doubt, for the city bigwigs, fund managers, chief executives and financial hacks and flacks who’d rather be betting on which horse will romp home at Cheltenham than which tax relief, pension allowance or benefit will be axed this time. But for those wanting to take a punt on what will be in Philip Hammond’s Budget Box tomorrow, here are some likely runners and riders. Despite having an extra billion or two to play with thanks to higher than expected economic growth and bumper tax receipts, it seems a racing certainty that there

Steerpike

Revealed: Rebecca Long-Bailey pushed out in Gorton

Although the Corbynites are at pains to promote Rebecca Long-Bailey as Jeremy Corbyn’s socialist successor, not everyone seems so convinced. In fact, Mr S understands that Labour moderates yesterday took action to stop the shadow business secretary from joining an upcoming by-election selection panel. After Manchester Gorton MP Gerald Kaufman passed away this month, the hunt is on to select a Labour candidate to stand as a successor. Hoping for that candidate to be a Corbynista, the Leader’s Office suggested Rebecca Long-Bailey, the MP for Salford, join the selection panel. Alas Steerpike understands that this suggestion was turned down by the officers’ group when they chose the panel — much to

Nick Hilton

Coffee House Shots: What’s in Philip Hammond’s Budget box?

There has been precious little excitement surrounding Wednesday’s budget announcement, which will be Philip Hammond’s first as Chancellor. The man nicknamed ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ has played down expectations, indicating from the off that he will leave major announcements to the new Autumn Budget. But whilst casual observers may find Wednesday less scintillating than under George Osborne, anticipated revisions to education, business rates and social care will still significantly affect the country’s fiscal position. On this episode of Coffee House Shots, Fraser Nelson is joined by James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman to shine a light through the gloaming of Hammond’s caution. And if you enjoyed this edition of Coffee House Shots, please subscribe on iTunes to get the best

Alex Massie

The SNP’s rosy-tartaned independence vision comes unstuck

In 2013, the Scottish National Party claimed an independent Scotland would be the sixth richest country on earth. Like many extravagant suggestions, this contained the essence of its own downfall. It would be lovely if it were true but didn’t it seem just a tiny bit too good to be true? At the same time, and for the next 18 months or so, SNP politicians assured the Scottish people that there was no need to worry about the economic case for independence. They had the numbers to prove it. Granted, no one was ever encouraged to ask awkward questions about the assumptions made to generate this rosy-tartaned vision. For instance,

Liam Halligan

A Parliament veto on Brexit would guarantee a stinker of a deal

Theresa May is warning Tory rebels that if Parliament gets a meaningful vote on Brexit, the European Union will be ‘incentivised’ to offer the UK a ‘bad deal’. She is right. But that doesn’t mean the Prime Minister should dismiss the prospect of the House of Lords inflicting a second defeat on the government, with peers today set to back an amendment requiring Parliament to endorse the UK’s final Brexit deal. May should, in contrast, turn what looks like an inconvenience to her political and diplomatic advantage. Theresa May responded to the first Parliamentary defeat to the government’s Article 50 bill, on an amendment designed to guarantee residency rights for all EU