Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Duncan Gardham

Why has Southport not been declared a terror attack?

Axel Rudakubana, the alleged Southport killer, has been accused of possessing a terrorist document, yet the police still insist there is no evidence of a terrorist motive. How can both be the case? The document Rudakubana is accused of downloading is a version of the 180-page ‘al-Qaeda training manual’. It is also known as the ‘Manchester manual’ after it was found for the first time by police on a computer in a flat in Cheetham Hill, Manchester in May 2000, more than a year before 9/11. How can both be the case? Scotland Yard arrested a man called Abu Anas al-Libi, who rented the flat, as part of an investigation

Coffee House

As it happened: Rachel Reeves raises taxes by £40 billion in Labour’s first Budget

Taxes will rise by £40 billion following Labour’s first Budget for 14 years. The Chancellor announced: • An increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions from April to 15 per cent, raising £25 billion • That the freeze on income tax and National Insurance thresholds will not be extended past 2028 • That the lower rate of capital gains tax will be raisedfrom 10 per cent to 18 per cent, and the higher rate from 20 per cent to 24 per cent • That fuel duty will remain frozen for the next two years • The introduction of VAT on private school fees from January

Andrew Watts

Who do US psychics predict will win the election?

A week away from the American election, and the polls cannot tell us who will be president. But can they ever? A poll is, as the pundits always remind us, a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction. Nate Silver himself said that anyone dissecting an individual poll is ‘just doing astrology’. So what predictions are actual astrologers making about the election? She looks relieved when she draws the High Priestess: a trump card, but possibly not a Trump card Under the electoral college system, nationwide data is not as important as predictions for the swing states, so I look for astrologers in the seven states which will decide the election.

Daniel McCarthy

Vibes don’t matter. Donald Trump is still the underdog

Hillary Clinton has a simple but bitter lesson to teach Donald Trump’s supporters in 2024: the best way to lose an election is to assume you’ve already won it a week before it happens.  ​The MAGA movement ­– aiming to Make America Great Again, namely by Making Trump President Again – has never been more confident. Opinion polls have Trump faring much better against Kamala Harris than he ever did against Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. Indeed, the polling averages actually place Trump ahead, which wasn’t the case at this point in either of his earlier elections.  And since the polls underestimated his share of vote the

Euan McColm

The gross hypocrisy of the SNP

If there’s one thing the SNP truly excels at, it’s maintaining double standards. The extraordinary case of the Scottish government and the missing legal advice makes clear just how hypocritical the SNP is when it comes to conduct in public life. Scottish nationalists are swift to condemn opponents at the slightest whiff of impropriety but, as this matter demonstrates, when it comes to their own morality, they’re more easy-going. Back in 2021, then first minister Nicola Sturgeon was cleared of breaching the Scottish parliament’s ministerial code over her involvement in the case of complaints made by female civil servants against her predecessor, the late Alex Salmond. Inevitably, opposition parties demanded

Steerpike Steerpike

Reeves snubs Thatcher Chancellor pic for ‘Red Ellen’

To the subject of office decor, with Rachel Reeves now in the spotlight for matters other than her Budget. It now transpires that the Chancellor has made some rather controversial alterations to her workspace’s wall art — in replacing a portrait of Margaret Thatcher’s chancellor with a founder of the, er, British Communist party. Good heavens. The swapping out of Nigel Lawson’s portrait for one of Ellen Wilkinson was revealed after the Treasury published a picture of Reeves in her No. 11 study ahead of Budget day. While it had been reported that the Chancellor had removed Lord Lawson’s portrait over the summer, there had been no confirmation over what

Ian Williams Ian Williams

Why billionaires are fleeing China

‘To get rich is glorious’ is perhaps the most over-used slogan attributed to Deng Xiaoping, the paramount leader who reformed China and opened its economy up to the world. There is no evidence that he actually said it, but regardless it seemed to capture the mood of that era. In the China of Xi Jinping, to get rich is decidedly dangerous, which may account for why the number of super-rich (or at least those admitting to it) is in sharp decline, with many now clambering for the exit to protect their wealth and their liberty. According to a rich list compiled by Hurun, a research group, the number of dollar

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Three tests for Reeves’s first Budget

It’s Budget day in Westminster. The question being asked by Labour MPs: can Rachel Reeves pull it off? This lunchtime, the Chancellor will stand at the despatch box and pitch Labour’s first Budget for 14 years as necessary tough choices to ‘fix the foundations’ while also ensuring ‘working people don’t face higher taxes in their payslips’ (see Mr Steerpike for who Labour’s working people definition misses out). Reeves will use a report by the Office for Budget Responsibility to argue that the Tories left such a bad economic inheritance she had to take action. The Tories will try to argue in turn that Labour planned a tax raid (to the

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Will there be a surprise in Rachel Reeves’s Budget?

Most chancellors pull a rabbit out of a hat during their Budget statements – something to delight their own MPs and leave the opposition feeling outmanoeuvred. Such has been the atmosphere of doom and gloom generated by Rachel Reeves in advance of hers that there is a temptation to envisage her plonking a boiled bunny on the Commons despatch box and exclaiming: ‘It’s Halloween tomorrow, so grab a load of that!’ And yet Ms Reeves will surely at least attempt to conjure up the vista of some sunlit economic uplands after four months of exaggerated complaints about the financial inheritance passed down by the Tories. Better resourcing of ‘Our NHS’

Limor Simhony Philpott

Israel is right about UNRWA

The Israeli parliament resumed its work on Monday after a long recess, and one of the first items on the agenda was voting on a bill that enjoyed rare widespread popularity. The bill decreed that Israel will severe ties with the UN relied and work agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA), which will heavily restrict the organisation’s ability to operate in Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank. It passed with a majority of 92 for and 10 against, with even opposition members of the Knesset supporting the bill. The bill was criticised by the UN, which threatened to suspend Israel’s membership. It was also criticised by Israel’s allies, including the US, UK

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Why this Budget could be worse than you fear

It is tempting to think of this Budget as a triumph in expectation management. Rachel Reeves’s minions have briefed us on so many potential tax rises that surely the actual speech, when finally delivered, can’t be as bad as feared. Having been conditioned to expect the worst, we will all end up feeling pathetically grateful to Reeves for having spared us. But having run through a few figures I am not so sure. Rather, I fear we may be in for whatever is the opposite of a rabbit out of the hat – a toad out of the hat, perhaps. Over the past few days we have been told to

Tuesday

James Heale James Heale

Teen accused of Southport murders facing terror charge

The teenager accused of murdering three girls in Southport in July is now facing two further charges. Axel Rudakubana, 18, already faces three charges of murder, 10 charges of attempted murder and one charge of possession of a knife. But today the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) announced that he has also been charged with the possession of an al-Qaeda training manual and production of the poison ricin. Rudakubana is due to appear tomorrow at Westminster Magistrates’ Court, with his trial expected to begin in January. Both the ricin and the study of the training manual were found as part of searches of the suspect’s house in the Lancashire village of

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Is Russell Findlay the Kemi Badenoch of Scotland?

When Russell Findlay stood to be Scottish Conservative leader, he talked the familiar language of ‘change’. I predicted that this would translate to a rightwards shift for the party and his first major speech in the job confirms it. Findlay is not entirely comfortable with the ‘right wing’ label – he is a Tory, after all – but it is the readiest descriptor of the positions he is setting out. Since he took over in September, the Tories have become the only party in the Scottish parliament to oppose free bus travel for asylum seekers, additional aid for schools in Africa and early prisoner releases to tackle overcrowding. Findlay says:

Ahron Bregman

Could Israel bring down Iran’s regime?

So, the long-awaited Israeli strike on Iran is finally over, and if we trust the Israeli post-attack analysis, then it went well. Buckling under American pressure not to attack Iranian nuclear or oil facilities, which could have led to massive escalation and a spike in oil prices (both undesired outcomes on the eve of US elections), Israel focused instead on military targets. Its 100-aircraft armada knocked out all of Iran’s S-300 air defence system, reduced Iranian ballistic missile production by 80 per cent, and struck air defence systems in the vicinity of Abadan, an oil production centre. This air attack caused not only physical damage but also sent a clear

Nick Tyrone Nick Tyrone

Should the Lib Dems be conservative?

Having won 72 seats at the general election, political pundits have been asking what the Lib Dems are going to do with their vastly increased presence in the House of Commons. The answer so far: not much. It’s remarkable how quiet the party has been, both in parliament and in the media. However, the Budget has seen them spread their wings a little – and what they have revealed is interesting. They have attacked Labour from the right: decrying the rise in employers NI; attacking the government’s policy on inheritance tax; criticising VAT on private school fees. So, does this mean that the party is going to position itself to

Oscar Edmondson

The problem with Labour’s ‘sticking plaster politics’

14 min listen

Wes Streeting has been out on the airwaves this morning, giving us a better idea of what will be in the Budget when it comes to the NHS. In an attempt to resuscitate a ‘broken but not beaten’ NHS, he has announced a cash injection reported to be up to £7 billion – including £1.57 billion for new surgical hubs, scanners, and radiotherapy machines. The Health Secretary did stress, however, that this will not be enough to save the NHS from a winter crisis. How far will this money go? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Isabel Hardman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Steerpike Steerpike

Have Labour’s budget leaks breached the ministerial code?

Well, well, well. Budget announcements are meant to be made in the House of Commons chamber – yet despite all Sir Keir Starmer’s talk of ‘grown up politics’, his Labour government has opted to trail a number of announcements in advance of Rachel Reeves’s big speech. As Mr S wrote on Monday, Speaker Lindsay Hoyle made a furious intervention to scold the Chancellor over the leaks, raging that announcements should have been made ‘in the first instance in this house and not to the world’s media’. That’s them told… Now the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Laura Trott, has used an urgent question to further bash the lefty lot

Kemi Badenoch

My plan to win back power for the Tories

Perhaps the strongest asset of the Conservative party is its members (reader, I married one!) and the best part of this leadership contest has been meeting so many of them. On the campaign trail, I’ve encountered three types of party member. The first want to refight the last election, but with different policies. The second worry about the party’s ability to survive, let alone fight the next election. The third are there for the show – and the selfies. And when it comes to leadership hustings, we Tories lay on pretty regular shows. I sympathise with those in the first group: I’d love to go back in time and have better arguments. But

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Yet another NHS Budget boost – but where’s the reform?

We won’t have to speculate about the details of the Labour’s first Budget much longer. But one tradition as old as time has been confirmed by the Treasury: the National Health Service is getting more cash. ‘Our NHS is the lifeblood of Britain,’ the Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said ahead of unveiling her full Budget tomorrow. ‘That’s why I am putting an end to the neglect and underinvestment it has seen for over a decade now.’ This is set to include £1.57 billion of capital spending to expand surgical hubs and provide more equipment. An additional £1.8 billion worth of funding will also be announced to help Labour make good on its

Steerpike Steerpike

Badenoch: My superpower would be reading minds

The Tory leadership contest has entered its final week and both finalists are ramping up their media appearances in a last ditch attempt to pick up votes. While she initially opted not to spend too much time on the airwaves, Kemi Badenoch has in recent days accepted more interview invites as concerns about voter turnout grow. The leadership hopeful has now appeared on today’s episode of BBC Newscast – in which she was quizzed on her temperament, ‘principles-first’ approach and, er, superpower. Priorities, priorities… ‘If I could pick one single superhero power, it would be to read peoples’ minds,’ the straight-talking candidate admitted to the Beeb’s Adam Fleming and Chris