Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
Ukip has arrived at Westminster. Douglas Carswell held his Clacton seat after defecting from the Conservatives, and in Heywood and Middleton Ukip came just 617 votes short of victory. Which was the more startling result, and what does it all mean for the parties’ chances at the general election? Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss in this View from 22 podcast special: listen to ‘Podcast: Ukip’s Clacton victory’ on audioBoom
Last night’s by-election results were bad for both the main Westminster parties. The Tories did not manage to make significant inroads into Douglas Carswell’s majority, and their vote collapsed in Heywood. Their main saving grace is that the Rochester by-election has united the party in fury and is a fight they think they can win. This means troublemakers will stay quiet for the time being. But the relative unity that is expected today will evaporate if they then fail to win a seat the party has briefed it is likely to win. listen to ‘Podcast: Ukip’s Clacton victory’ on audioBoom
listen to ‘Podcast: Ukip’s Clacton victory’ on audioBoom
Ukip has won its first by-election: Douglas Carswell is the party’s first elected MP. In a stunning night for the party, it also ran Labour mighty close in Heywood and Middleton—coming in just 617 votes behind. listen to ‘Douglas Carswell’s Clacton victory speech’ on audioBoom
Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I’m interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here’s something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum. The SNP won’t take safe Labour seats: they’re hugely behind – we’re talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner
News that the soon-to-be-ex-Tory MP Brooks Newmark has sent pictures of his genitals to a second (presumed female) contact has centred yawningly around ‘rights’, ‘exploitation’, ‘power’ and so on. Aristotle can take us back to basics. The ancients did not do ‘rights’ anyway: they did the law. If there was no law against what you were doing, go ahead. But that did not mean that your action was therefore praiseworthy. How, then, should a man, especially one in the public eye, judge his actions? Aristotle suggested there were four main criteria: whether the actions in question were legal, advantageous, honourable and appropriately motivated. That Newmark’s action was ‘legal’ is undeniable. That
2.50am Douglas Carswell’s victory speech, after winning a 12,404 majority, was not triumphalist: there was no tub-thumping. Instead, he said that Ukip must be the party of 1st and 2nd generation Britons, that its passion must be tempered by compassion and argued that the era of dominant cartel was coming to an end in everything from banking to politics. listen to ‘Douglas Carswell’s Clacton victory speech’ on audioBoom 2.45 Ukip win Clacton, Douglas Carswell is Ukip’s first elected MP with more than 60% of the vote 2.35am Result coming very soon now 2.15 The BBC’s Chris Mason is reporting that Douglas Carswell will have a 12 thousand plus majority, a quite remarkable
Douglas Carswell is not like normal politicians; he’s authentic, genuine and in touch with real people. Or so the spin goes. So what was today’s by-election-day stunt at a polling station in Clacton all about? Emerging with his thumbs up, Ukip’s soon-to-be-MP for Clacton looked every inch the candidate, taking part in the usual election-day voting photocall. Except Carswell is not eligible to vote in the constituency, as he lives in Fulham and rents a house that falls just outside the boundary of the seat. And surely the authentic and genuine Mr Carswell did not deliberately leave the village where he really lives off of the statement-of-persons document that anyone
I see that London is now the ‘childbirth capital of Europe’, with the highest birth-rate on the entire continent. London, and the UK generally, previously enjoyed very low birth-rates, among the lowest in Western Europe (together with the other law-abiding, sexually restrained, protestant people of the North West). The cause of this change is, of course, mass immigration. And, one would expect, non-European immigration. This change had not been anticipated by the people who predict what our population is going to be 20, 30 years down the line. It now looks like life in Britain – the 2037 figure of just below 75 million, as predicted by the Office for
In this week’s issue, Fraser Nelson and Nick Cohen examine how police are using the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (Ripa) to run wild in the public’s mobile phone records. Like many curtailments of British liberties, this started off in the name of fighting terrorism. It has now emerged that police forces used these anti-terror powers to obtain phone records from a number of journalists to work out who they were speaking to. Camilla Swift speaks to Fraser and Lord Falconer, the former Lord Chancellor, who was involved in enacting the original Ripa legislation. Have the police gone too far? And can we really trust them to use this legislation responsibly?
Tonight Clacton is set to return the first elected Ukip MP to the House of Commons. The Conservatives have already tried to factor in Douglas Carswell’s defection as something they can cope with – and this has been made quite a lot easier by the tribal anger that Mark Reckless provoked when he announced he was doing the same thing. But the consequences for Ukip of having an MP in terms of their appeal to the electorate are not so easily dismissed. They can now tell voters they really are a serious party, rather than a bunch of no-hopers. Nigel Farage sees it as a ‘Krakatoa’ moment. And one important
[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_9_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss Lib Dem tactics” startat=782] Listen [/audioplayer]The last Liberal Democrat conference before the general election has been dominated by denunciations of the ‘nasty’ Tories. Lib Dems claim they are shocked to find George Osborne proposing a freeze in working age benefits. But can they really be so very surprised? Given that they themselves blocked the Tories from implementing this policy in the current parliament, they must have suspected that Osborne would want to do it in the next. But through all the platform rhetoric, the outlines of a second Tory/Lib Dem coalition have become clear in the past fortnight. The parties now agree
For what is technically peacetime, there’s a lot of shelling going on round here. Donetsk airport is still held by the Ukrainian army and the rebels of the Donetsk People’s Republic bombard it furiously every day. The Ukrainians reply by lobbing back artillery shells and Grad missiles. Both sides bristle with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, so the war is a static one, fought by a series of artillery duels, first world war-style. Underneath the smart new airport built by Turks for the Euro 2012 championships is a warren of deep Soviet-era bunkers and tunnels, where the Ukrainian defenders retreat with their howitzers when the barrages get too heavy. Construct your
An opinion poll to be published next week will reveal that Labour leader Ed Miliband is slightly less popular with the public than the vibrant Islamic State commander ‘Jihadi John’ and the late BBC disc jockey Jimmy Savile, and only two points more popular than His Infernal Majesty, Satan. The same poll will also put Labour slightly ahead of the Tories and therefore on course to be the largest party in a hung parliament come next May, with Ed Miliband as prime minister. This is but one reason why the next general election will be the most fascinating within living memory; the pollsters do not really have a clue what’s
The Liberal Democrats might be in the single digits in the polls, but they were distinctly chipper this week. There’s one simple explanation for this, the political landscape gives them hope that there will be another hung parliament and they will be in government again after 2015. But I think there is another factor behind this Lib Dem cheer: they’ve come to terms with what they’ve done in government. Large parts of Clegg’s speech today seemed designed to prepare activists with lines to use on the doorstep. When it came to the tuition fees, the tone was—despite Clegg’s earlier apology—strikingly defiant. He said, ‘when you meet people who still
listen to ‘Podcast: Nick Clegg’s speech’ on audioBoom
listen to ‘Podcast: Nick Clegg’s speech’ on audioBoom There were no rabbits in Nick Clegg’s speech today. Instead, there was just an unerring emphasis on the Liberal Democrats’ message that they are the only party that will provide ‘a stronger economy and a fairer society’ and that’s why you need them in government. Clegg began by thanking Ed Miliband and George Osborne for setting up the Lib Dem conference so well. He told activists that Miliband (by forgetting to mention the deficit) and Obsorne (by saying he would close the deficit through spending cuts alone) had opened up the political space that the Liberal Democrats need. Indeed, at times Clegg
listen to ‘Podcast: Nick Clegg’s speech’ on audioBoom Before I say anything else, I’m sure I speak on behalf of all Liberal Democrats when I say that our hearts and condolences go out to the family and friends of Alan Henning and David Haines for their tragic loss. These were good men. In the work they did they stood for hope and compassion – the things that everyone in this room believes are more important than anything else. We have to take on the cowards who took their lives. We have to defeat their barbarity to help protect the millions of people who now live under the threat and fear
listen to ‘Podcast: Nick Clegg’s speech’ on audioBoom Nick Clegg put in an appearance at Glee Club last night – albeit only in 2-dimensional form as a cardboard cutout – while Lib Dem activists sang a timely (or perhaps inappropriate) song about bombing Iraq called the ‘Iraqi-cokey’: Mr Steerpike was in attendance, too, although he struggled to keep up with some of the more exuberant celebrations: As well as their rousing land value tax song, the Libs also produced a charming eulogy to the failure of the last possible Lib-Lab pact, which mostly consisted of the party’s youth members shouting that ‘Tony Blair can f*** off and die!’
The former Bishop of Rochester, Dr Michael Nazir-Ali, has agreed to talk to members of Ukip about ‘Magna Carta and the Perfectly Virtuous Pages of our History’. I blogged earlier about the bishop’s bravery in calling on Rome to defend Christians from Islamism, and in the process endorsed the Catholic Ordinariate for ex-Anglicans. But this demonstrates courage of an entirely different order. The Church of England is divided on the subject of bloodthirsty radical Islam but of one mind when it comes to Ukip: They’re the BNP in blazers and that’s that. Vicars know perfectly well that members of their congregations will vote for Britain’s new third party next year but they’d rather
