Politics

Exams regulator Ofqual is due to publish its findings on the gradings in the GCSE English paper today. The afternoon is yawning along, though, and there’s still no sign of the report, so while you’re all waiting with bated breath, here’s an update on the wider picture on GCSE reform. Michael Gove rather shocked the rest of the coalition government earlier this summer when his plan to abolish GCSEs and replace them with a two-tier O level-style exam system appeared on the front page of the Daily Mail. Since then, he and his advisers have been deep in negotiation with the Liberal Democrats on what an acceptable reform might look

The really curious thing about this year’s US presidential election is that it looks set to defy all political forecasts. While the most respected political science models have predicted victory for Mitt Romney, polls have consistently suggested otherwise. Political science and predictive models seldom receive much attention in the UK but they enjoy a strong tradition in the US. And they normally get it right. Most spectacularly, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model in 2000 successfully predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. Since its inception in 1980, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model has successfully predicted the results of the last eight

Nick Clegg may or may not be thrilled that Paddy Ashdown has urged party members to stand by their leader after Lord Oakeshott’s rather vicious attack on him yesterday. It depends slightly on the Deputy Prime Minister’s reading of history: as Tim Montgomerie observed last night, the endorsement of a former party leader can sometimes seem like a death knell. It is interesting, though, that it was Lord Oakeshott who launched the first public attack on Clegg’s leadership (that is, if you discount the helpful suggestions from ex-MP Lembit Opik). Not surprising, of course: the party’s former Treasury spokesman in the Lords is not known for delicacy when it comes

The Office of Budget Responsibility was created to be George Osborne’s friend. The theory was that under the leadership of Sir Alan Budd, the OBR would urge the Chancellor to cut. Budd would be listened to more than Robert Chote, who was then running the IFS. But when Sir Alan quit unexpectedly, Chote took over. Since then, the OBR has become the in-house prophet of doom. It not only points to a growth-free future for Britain, but keeps getting its forecasts wrong. It is proving laughably unreliable as a means for working out the likely effect of UK government policy. In the Telegraph today, Doug McWilliams who wrote the original brief for

This year more than ever, Nick Clegg is looking around for a policy to ensure he does not, to quote Nye Bevan, go naked into the conference hall when his party meets in Brighton. He does not have Lords reform to rouse his party ranks, the grassroots are nervous about the threat of an extra £10 billion in welfare cuts and there’s a row brewing on airports that will at some stage move from grumpy sniping to something rather uglier. So in his interview with the Guardian, the Liberal Democrat leader decided to talk tax, calling for a ‘time-limited contribution’ from the wealthiest in society. That this was a pre-conference

Every honours list throws up some controversy or other, such as whether a knighthood is linked to a political donation (a media favourite) or can be interpreted as some kind of political favour. Despite this, the Public Administration Select Committee took evidence which suggests that the honours system is broadly popular (81 per cent) and trusted by the public (71 per cent). This does not mean that the honours system is politically uncontroversial, with some MPs regarding it as corrupt and class-based, with others regarding the relationship with the Queen and the Empire Order as distinctly British and something to defend. (The present prime minister just restored the British Empire