Politics

Just back from covering the campaign in the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election – where, I suspect, the Lib Dems will not do quite so badly as many either hope or fear. It seems to be the Tory vote which is collapsing; odd, really, as the seat should be a three way marginal. One of the interesting sideshows is the three-way split on the far right, between the BNP, UKIP and the newcomers on the block, the English Democrats. The BNP did very well in Oldham five years ago, but their support locally (and nationally) has dwindled since then. They are competing with the English Democrats for the disillusioned Labour

David Cameron was on Marr this morning (with yours truly doing the warm-up paper review), talking about the “tough and difficult year” ahead. Others have been through the interview for its general content. What interested me was its economic content: not the most sexy subject in the world, I know, but, as Alan Johnson unwittingly demonstrated on Sky this morning, the Labour Party looks unable to scrutinise the government’s economic policy. Anyway, here are ten observations:   1) “Because of the budget last year, we are lifting 800,000 people out of income tax, we’re raising income tax thresholds. That will help all people who are basic rate taxpayers.” Thanks to

The same, but completely different. That’s the electoral paradox that emerges from a couple of opinion polls on the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election this morning. The same, because both the Lord Ashcroft survey for the Sunday Telegraph and the ICM survey for the Mail on Sunday produce the same result as in the general election: Labour first, the Lib Dems second and the Tories in third. Completely different, because this is no longer the achingly close contest that it was back in May. Both polls have Labour soaring 17 percentage points above the yellow bird of liberty. Of course, the polls aren’t always right. Yet these latest will surely

Neal Lawson¹s Comment is Free blog-post/essay/manifesto on the ‘good society‘ is causing a flurry of interest in Labour circles. The head of Labour leftish pressure group Compass has been banging on about this for four years now. Borrowed ultimately from Aristotle, this re-heated utopianism is a tempting route for post-socialists tired of the compromises of the Blair years. Neal Lawson is a passionate man, who can claim with some justification to have been developing Labour¹s version of the ‘big society’ for some time. Here is Neal at his emotional, tub-thumping best: ‘To take back some semblance of control, we can’t start from a position of trying to humanise a turbo-consumer

By my count, it’s the fourth speech that Nick Clegg has delivered specifically on the subject of deflating the state since last May. And like his last three, today’s number was stuffed with words like “liberty” (23 times), “freedom” (19) and “power” (14). Much of the more specific content was familiar, too: like the confident asides about ID cards and a Freedom Bill. What we really wanted to hear, though, was what Clegg would say about control orders. And what he said was … well, not much. Like the PM earlier this week, the Deputy PM suggested that control orders are an imperfect mechanism – and that “they must be

How much bigger does Britain’s inflation have to become before Mervyn King realises it’s a problem? The VAT rise should have lifted prices by 2.1 percent – but shopkeepers over Britain have been applying far larger rises. Why? Because one of the most important factors in economics – expectation of inflation – is back. People are bracing themselves for another year of rising heat, transport and staff costs – so retailers hike up prices in anticipation, and a vicious spiral of inflation begins. The Retail Price Index was up 4.8 percent last November, and Consumer Price Index 3.3 percent. The price of this failure of monetary policy is paid by

David Cameron has reiterated that Control Orders are to be scrapped. He told an audience in Leicester yesterday: ‘The control order system is imperfect. Everybody knows that. There have been people who’ve absconded from control orders. It hasn’t been a success. We need a proper replacement and I’m confident we’ll agree one.’ Whether the new arrangement will replace both the name and the letter of the law remains to be seen, but the government is expected to lessen some of the more severe elements of Control Orders. When this story broke at the weekend, Cameron was happy to spin the reforms as a Lib Dem initiative, despite considerable Tory input.

It is to his credit that nuance is a word inimical to Lord Tebbitt. The unashamedly independent voice of the past has written a cutting piece about the coalition, the Lib Dems and the Oldham East by-election. He says: ‘A Lib Dem win would tilt the Coalition even farther Left and away from Conservative policies.’ Many Tory ministers joke that they thought themselves right wing until meeting their Liberal colleague. This is a radical government that many on the right can cheer. Iain Duncan Smith’s welfare reforms are intended to make work pay and break the cycle of dependency; Michael Gove’s education reforms are market orientated; Grant Shapps’ housing reform

I have been arguing for a return of the Thatcher-era Enterprise Allowance scheme for two years, so I was delighted to see David Cameron announce the extension of the New Enterprise Allowance today. It always made sense to allow as many people as possible to come off the dole and set up their own businesses. I only hope the inducements will be attractive enough. I recently came across some brilliant public information films about the original scheme. You can check one out here if you want to be reminded of the last time the country faced mass unemployment. The original EAS was effective because it was a straightforward bribe. Recipients