The same, but completely different. That’s the electoral paradox that emerges from a
couple of opinion polls on the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election this morning. The same, because both
the Lord Ashcroft survey for the Sunday Telegraph and the ICM survey for the Mail on Sunday produce the same result as in the general election: Labour first, the Lib Dems second and the Tories in
third. Completely different, because this is no longer the achingly close contest that it was back in May.
Both polls have Labour soaring 17 percentage points above the yellow bird of liberty.
Of course, the polls aren’t always right. Yet these latest will surely furrow some brows in Coalitionville. While neither forecast the nightmare scenario for Nick Clegg – a third-placed finish for the Lib Dems – a hefty Labour lead would still provoke a similar sort of backlash. A seventeen-point advantage for the party whose previous candidate was dethroned by the courts, triggering the by-election in the first place? Many would exploit it as proof that the coalition has hobbled the Lib Dems as an electoral force.
For Labour, of course, these polls are considerably more encouraging. A convincing performance in Oldham could be just the tonic for Ed Miliband’s stuttering leadership so far. But the Labour leader shouldn’t rest complacently on one by-election result. The Ashcroft survey also discovers that, even in the Labour hotspot of Oldham, David Cameron is seen as the most effective party leader, with the best economic prospectus. So, even a dam-bursting victory for Labour might just propel a narrative that I speculated about last week: that the party’s successes are coming in spite of, not because of, their leader’s efforts.
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