Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Waiting on AV

Every conversation I have about the durability of the Coalition comes back to the AV referendum. The conventional wisdom is that if AV is defeated then it will be very hard for Clegg to keep his party in. For this reason, people pay extremely close attention to the Tory leadership’s attitude to AV. We are waiting to see if there is even a hint that Cameron is prepared to soften his position on the issue to strengthen the Coalition.   So Danny Finkelstein’s blog this morning suggesting that ‘AV might provide the answer to the otherwise impossible question – if the parties stay together, how can they fight the election

David Blackburn

The rookie gambler turns pro

George Osborne is an enigma. For many, his politics and personality are defined by a photograph of him sneering in the Bullingdon’s clashing colours. The determined face that presented the Budget contradicted that stereotype; it suggested that Osborne was coming of age.    Paul Goodman was part of Osborne’s Shadow Treasury team and one of the ‘Gang of Four’ who prepared IDS and Michael Howard for PMQs, along with Boris, Cameron and Osborne. He has written an extensive appraisal of Osborne the man and politician. Read the piece: it’s enthralling, a detailed account of Osborne’s political adolescence through the years of defeat and a candid analysis of his tactical expertise.

Peter Hoskin

Hugh Orde’s rhetoric is encouraging for Osborne

Whatever happened to Sir Hugh Orde?  A few months ago, he was threatening to resign over the Tories’ plans for elected police commissioners.  But later, in a speech to the Association of Chief Police Officers, he seems to have come over considerably more cooperative.  On spending cuts, he stresses that police numbers will likely be reduced, but adds that “we fully understand that all will have to share the pain.”  And on elected police commissioners, the worst he can bring himself to say is that “the test is reconciling it with operational independence for policing … we have an absolute right to clarity on how this system will work.”  There

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

First Commons rebellion against the Coalition a small affair

In the last few days, there’s been much speculation about how many Lib Dem MPs would vote against the VAT rise. In the end, only two did—Bob Russell and Mike Hancock. I suspect that the Lib Dem whips will be quite happy that the rebellion was so small. Other Lib Dems with misgivings about the policy are clearly not yet prepared to cross the Rubicon of rebellion. One thing we know is that once an MP has defied the whip in government once, they find it much easier to do it again. Few in Westminster would be surprised if Russell and Hancock began regular rebels. But it will be a relief

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Harman the hawk

Harriet Harman’s response to David Cameron’s statement on the G8 and G20 was noticeable for her attacking the Prime Minister for talking about bringing British troops home from Afghanistan within five years. Her criticism was that talking about withdrawal undermined the troops in the field, she sounded more like John McCain than I ever expected Harriet Harman to. She chose to reinforce her point by using quotes from Liam Fox about the effect that timelines have on military morale. Her use of the Fox quotes suggests that Labour see the Cameron Fox relationship as a weak point in the government. Certainly, Ben Brogan’s blog and Conservative Home’s description of the

Peter Hoskin

Different Miliband, similar deceit

First, David Miliband was telling Brownies about the public finances.  Now, his brother’s at it too.  Here’s what he told the Daily Politics earlier: “Over thirteen years, Labour did increase spending on public services … In the coming five years, the Conservative coalition wants to undo all of that increase in spending.  So they want to return to a time before 1997.” But here’s what Labour’s spending increases (and those Tory spending cuts) look like once you’ve accounted for inflation: And, even as a percentage of GDP, the Tories are hardly “undoing” all of Labour’s spending:

Peter Hoskin

Miliband the conman

Who’d have thought it? There’s David Miliband getting all self-righteous about the “cons” in George Osborne’s Budget, when – oh dear – he slips in a small con of his own.  Here’s the relevant passage: “[The Budget] was avoidable. Labour set out plans to cut the deficit by half over the next Parliament. The Tories have chosen to cut the whole of the deficit and more to the tune of £32billion in public services and £11billion in welfare.” And here, going off Labour’s own plans, is what he should have written: “[The Budget] was avoidable. Labour set out plans to cut the structural deficit by ‘more than two-thirds’ over the

David Blackburn

War of words | 28 June 2010

Yvette Cooper has condemned IDS’ ‘nasty’ rhetoric this morning and claimed that the government’s proposals are about ideological cuts, not welfare reform. It’s simple, but effective. IDS’ reforms are both radical and necessary. The plan is to incentivise movement out of areas of welfare dependency with regional tax breaks and housing guarantees. There is a clear link between this policy and the non-EU migrant cap, which will protect at least some low skilled or unskilled jobs. A policy that encourages fairness, aspiration and a first chance in life for those condemned to worklessness by accident of birth. But the coalition is losing the rhetorical argument. When used in conjunction with

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 28 June 2010

…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson believes that Cameron is planning a dignified exit from Afghanistan, and sees no change in Afghan policy from the G8. James Forsyth says that the Lib Dems have survived their toughest week yet, and reveals why Obama did not consider withdrawing from Afghanistan. David Blackburn relates how IDS plans to smash the welfare ghettos, and says that Cameron and Clegg’s love-in is deepening. Daniel Korski considers Turkey’s evolving foreign policy, and And Susan Hill is adamant that all is not fair in an Orange world.

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Lib Dems’ toughest week so far

This, in the admittedly short life of the Coalition, has been the most difficult week so far for the Lib Dems. The Coalition agreement had the Lib Dems winning huge concessions from the Tories. Afterwards, all the talk was of Lib Dem negotiating skills, what a good deal that they had won for themselves. But after the Budget, the mood was very different. It is now clear that this is, first and foremost, a fiscally conservative government. One of the problems as Andrew Rawnsley notes in his column is that the Lib Dems are now being depicted as dupes by large sections of the media and the Labour party. However

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cameron meant what he said on Afghanistan

Although David Cameron said later that he didn’t mean it, there was no mistaking the sincerity when he told Adam Boulton that “We cannot be there for another five years having effectively been there for nine years already”. In my News of the World column  today, I say that it’s pretty clear his Afghan strategy is to secure the earliest dignified exit. But I also say that this does not necessarily bode ill for defence more widely. I gather that George Osborne, fresh from the success of his Budget last week, is working on a plan that will freeze defence budget in cash terms (an 11% real terms cut over

David Blackburn

The trimmers mobilise

The Independent on Sunday reports that a cabal of four disgruntled/horrified Lib Dem MPs have held secret talks with Labour to amend contentious elements of the Budget, such as the VAT hike. Four rebels will not be enough to defeat the government, but it is the first indication that Simon Hughes’ call to arms will be answered by the social democrat wing of the party, damaging the coalition’s long-term prospects. Of course, it is healthy that government backbenchers scrutinise and improve government legislation for whatever cause – the odd amendment to public borrowing clauses would have been welcome over the last decade. Scrutiny does not imply revolution, stressed Andrew George, the four

Saturday

The Spectator

The road to recovery

The most heartening part of George Osborne’s Budget was perhaps one of its least glamorous proposals. The most heartening part of George Osborne’s Budget was perhaps one of its least glamorous proposals. In his speech, the Chancellor started to bemoan the regional disparities within Britain. Ten jobs in the private sector are created in the south for every one in the north, he said — all too true. One was braced, next, for some doomed proposal for a new Silicon Valley in Teesside, or a harebrained attempt to incubate green energy forms in the Welsh valleys. But no: he would cut the taxes of companies starting up in these areas.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Post-Budget polls show drop in Lib Dem support

ICM’s post Budget poll for the Sunday Telegraph confirms YouGov’s finding that the Lib Dems have dropped after the Budget. It has them down five to 16. By contrast, the Tories are up two to 41. Labour have also risen four to 35. YouGov has the Lib Dems on 16, the Tories 43 and Labour 36. These polls matter because they will add to the jitteriness that some left-leaning Lib Dem feel about such a fiscally conservative Budget. There is a feeling in Lib Dem circles that they could do with some things to please and reassure their base in the coming weeks. The Coalition is planning a policy push

David Blackburn

Cameron and Clegg’s love-in deepens

What began as a coalition of expediency is maturing into a pact of principle – or at least that’s what Cameron and Clegg would have you believe.  Of course, relations may sour and enormous efforts are being made to preserve Cameron and Clegg’s public cordiality. Journalists are being briefed that plans are in progress to enable Cameron and Clegg to speak at each others’ party conferences.   It will be little more than a public relations exercise if it goes ahead, and an extremely hollow one in all probability. What are they going say? It’ll be a cartoonist’s dream, as Clegg is politely applauded by the contemptuous Colonels, and Cameron,

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne is becoming the true Tory leader

There’s one subject that you don’t raise with David Cameron’s circle if you want the conversation to last: the election result. They don’t like to be reminded that they failed to win a majority. The Cameroons have been persuading themselves that coalition government is the best possible result. No. 10 has been dubbed ‘the love nest’ by the rest of Whitehall. The Tories inside gush about their new Liberal Democrat colleagues. But just next door, there is a man who is still obsessing about how to win a Tory majority. George Osborne has digested the election result, does not regard it as a success, and is seeking to learn from

Jrh Mcewen

Fowler’s match: 100 years on

This week marks the centenary of what might just be the greatest cricket match of all time: Fowler’s match, the epic battle between Eton and Harrow in 1910. This week marks the centenary of what might just be the greatest cricket match of all time: Fowler’s match, the epic battle between Eton and Harrow in 1910. On 8 and 9 July that year, Lord’s was packed to the gunwales. It was the social and sporting event of the year. Back then, Eton vs Harrow mattered a lot — and not just for the public-schooled elite. Everyone supported one school or the other. That year, Harrow won the toss and elected

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Meet the real Diane Abbott — metropolitan, faux-left and middle-class

Years ago I used to spend one evening a month in some dank and frowzy local authority hall attempting to prevent crazed and scary lesbians from becoming my local MP or councillor. This was during my time as a Labour party activist in south London — and attendance at the staggeringly dull ward meetings was compulsory for a small group of us who hoped that one day the party might select candidates who had not whizzed in from the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Zone, that strange, dark and cold place on the edge of our solar system from which all manner of trouble emanates. But we were in a

Jonathan Davis

Time to invest in the UK again — or to spread your money abroad?

Jonathan Davis thinks this week’s Budget will prove positive for British investors, but that it’s increasingly important to take a global view of markets and currencies There was nothing in George Osborne’s emergency Budget on Tuesday to contradict the idea that the transition from Labour to Conservative (or in this case Conservative-led) governments tends to be good for the investing classes. The fall of the Callaghan government in 1979 was followed after an initial period of uncertainty by the start of an 18-year bull market that was resilient enough to survive two nasty recessions, the 1987 crash and our undignified exit from the ERM in 1992. There were similar bull

Richard Northedge

Cadbury Rules not OK for investors

Kraft Foods’ takeover of Cadbury was only a quarter the size of last year’s biggest bids — BHP Billiton’s for Rio Tinto, for example — but the offer for the confectioner has assumed disproportionate importance and could permanently tilt the playing field for future British acquisitions, by protecting companies at the expense of investors’ profits. Kraft Foods’ takeover of Cadbury was only a quarter the size of last year’s biggest bids — BHP Billiton’s for Rio Tinto, for example — but the offer for the confectioner has assumed disproportionate importance and could permanently tilt the playing field for future British acquisitions, by protecting companies at the expense of investors’ profits.