Politics Archives

Friday

25 Mar 2011

Miliband’s two big risks

Who would have thought it? Miliband’s short speech in Nottingham today went largely unheralded, and doesn’t seem to be getting a whole lot of attention now — and yet it tells us more about his approach to Opposition than almost anything he has said previously. Fact is, the Labour leader is taking two risks that may be either bold or foolhardy, depending on your point of view. These risks could come to define his Labour party. The first is splashed right across the entire speech. Miliband dwells on three “challenges” that the country will face over the coming decade: the “cost of living crisis”; declining prospects for the next generation;

James Forsyth

Welcome revisions to IPSA’s rules

If you want to get an MP going, just ask them what they think of IPSA — the new expenses watchdog. The body is hated: when Cameron joked at PMQs this week that it should be relocated to Croydon there was laughter across the House. IPSA is regarded as rude and inefficient. When Tory MPs were in a particularly grumpy mood before Christmas, David Cameron went to the ’22 and promised that IPSA would either have to mend its ways or be mended. Today’s revisions to the rules by IPSA (£) will go some way to addressing the concerns of MPs. The old rules only allowed children to be treated

Peter Hoskin

Now the questions are Nato’s to answer

Now, at least, we know: Nato will be taking charge of the no-fly zone that has been erected around Libya. And we might even welcome the news. As soon as the Americans made it clear that this was not their conflict to command, a new leadership arrangement was always going to be required — and Nato were the obvious choice. The only real barriers to their assumption of power have been French enthusiasm and Turkish reluctance, but they now appear to have been reconciled. In so far as this has clarified the next steps in Libya, it is a good thing. But confusion remains, and in wholesale quantities. It’s not

Thursday

24 Mar 2011

Matthew Hancock-Mp

What Portugal means for the UK

Last night, Portugal’s parliament voted to reject its latest measures to deal with its deficit. It was the fourth time that the Portuguese parliament had been asked for more taxes and for more spending cuts. The result has been a further loss of confidence in Portugal’s ability to pay its debts. Market interest rates have risen to over 8 percent. European leaders are meeting this weekend to work out a path forward. The lessons for us here in the UK are starkly clear. First, it is better to set out all the difficult decisions needed to deal with the debt crisis, even if these take place over a number of

David Blackburn

Cleggballs

Amid allegations of Clegg being a Tory stooge, this Brown-esque mic-boob is likely to run. It’ll also be reprised at the next election, whoever leads the Liberal Democrats. Hat-tip: Channel Four.

Matt Oakley

Please sir, can we have some more?

There were few surprises in yesterday’s Budget. As expected, it focused on growth and the majority of the policies announced had been heavily trailed in the weekend newspapers. The fiscal picture did not change much. Potential over-optimism from the Office for Budget Responsibility on inflation and the output gap aside, the Chancellor is still on course to eliminate the deficit by the end of this Parliament. This is very good news. The biggest danger during a fiscal consolidation programme is that governments water down their proposals due to political opposition or economic difficulties. In a 2009 report, Controlling Spending and Government Deficits, Policy Exchange argued that the preferred ratio

Mats Persson

Cameron’s €4 billion Portuguese challenge

As if the budget and Libya weren’t enough, the UK Government woke up today with another major challenge on its hands – yet another flare-up in the eurozone debt crisis, which has been continuing to bubble away under the radar. Yesterday, Portugal’s Prime Minister José Sócrates literally walked out of Parliament, during a debate on EU-backed austerity measures. The austerity package was subsequently voted down and shortly afterwards Sócrates announced his resignation. Portugal is now facing the prospect of being without a government for months, as its electoral rules require a 55 day break between the dissolution of Parliament and new elections. The episode has increased the already

Peter Hoskin

The IFS delivers an ambivalent judgement on the Budget

Away, away from Drill Hall in central London, where the Institute for Fiscal Studies has just delivered its briefing on yesterday’s Budget. And, as useful as this event always is, there’s no denying that another independent body — the Office for Budget Responsibility — has taken some of the sting and surprise out of it. Not only did the OBR poach the IFS’s former director, Robert Chote, for themselves, but their supplementary Budget document has already done an IFS-style job on the government: highlighting the trends and tremors that might otherwise go unspoken. And so we heard, again, about how overall spending has risen slightly after yesterday’s Budget; about the

Matthew Sinclair

Merging Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions – Simples?

“I am announcing today that the Government will consult on merging the operation of National Insurance and Income Tax.” The word ‘consultation’ in the Budget drew the longest, loudest sigh from me. Some commentators had hinted that Osborne was considering merging Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions (NICs), which would be a fantastic move towards simplifying our tax system. Of all the pre-Budget leaks, this was one that sounded truly exciting and innovative. But, alas, this idea is only in infancy and all that was promised was a consultation. Of course, the Chancellor can’t rush into this. He has to get this right if it goes ahead, so a consultation

Peter Hoskin

Laws gives another signal on 50p

Usually, the task of David Laws Watch is to judge just how close the former minister is to a return to government. But, today, his article for the FT is worth highlighting for a different reason altogether. Referencing George Osborne’s signals on the 50p rate in the Budget speech, Laws has this to say (my emphasis): “The chancellor also signalled that excessive marginal rates of income tax – of 50 per cent, even 60 per cent – are on their way out. The Treasury believes that the majority of expected revenue from the current top rate is lost in avoidance. But the government is rightly cautious about the timing of

Fraser Nelson

Osborne gets his man

So Martin Sorrell is set to move WPP back to Britain. This was always part of Osborne’s Budget plan, as I revealed in my News of the World column and also mentioned on Coffee House. As I said in the newspaper: “The Chancellor has been on bended knee, pursuing Sorrell with energy that would make Berlusconi blush. ‘What do we need to do?’ he asks. Sorrell’s answer is to cut the tax on overseas profits. So Osborne will, hoping to lure back companies who generate most of their cash abroad.” Today, Sorrell will announce that he’ll come back from Ireland if the Budget is made law. Of course it will

Wednesday

23 Mar 2011

The Spectator

Budget 2011 round-up

Coffee House ran a live blog of the Chancellor’s statement and the Leader of the Opposition’s response. In addition to that, here is a selection of posts from Spectator.co.uk on the Budget: Fraser Nelson says Osborne’s cuts have got softer. James Forsyth considers the Budget’s political implications, and witnesses Ed Balls’ mischievous response. Peter Hoskin asks if Osborne has done enough to deal with inflation, and examines the macro-economic picture. The Adam Smith Institute issues a qualified positive. The Resolution Foundation says that Osborne the Reformer is an unfinished work. The Institute for Economic Affairs says the Budget was disappointing for promoting growth.

James Forsyth

Balls replies with mischief

Ed Balls has just delivered Labour’s Budget briefing. His main point was that the Office of Budget Responsibility now forecasts higher levels of unemployment than it did last autumn. He claimed that this would lead to a £12.6bn increase in spending on unemployment benefit. He also argued that the decision to increase tax thresholds by CPI rather than RPI was an effective tax increase and that it will hit the middle hardest. In a classic piece of Ballsian mischief, he reveled in pointing out that the Office of Budget Responsibility says that it received news of the extra cut in corporation tax and the 1p cut in fuel duty too

Patrick Nolan

Giving up before the race has begun?

How will history judge George Osborne’s second Budget? Once the headline writers have moved on to the next story and the longer-term consequences of the measures become apparent, will this budget be seen as doing the right thing? Unfortunately the answer is, at best, “not really.” By sticking to the target of eliminating the structural deficit in this parliament, George Osborne got the big call right. As Andrew Haldenby has written, “It’s always easier to set a target at first but as people get tired of austerity there is a real temptation to stop before the job is done. Writing for Reform last year, Paul Martin, the Prime Minister

Peter Hoskin

The big question: has Osborne done enough to deal with inflation?

“We understand how difficult it is for so many people across our country right now.” If you weren’t sure which direction George Osborne’s Budget was going to head in, then he clarified it right from the start of his speech. This was one to tackle the rising cost of living. And much of it — such as the raise in the personal allowance and the fuel duty cut — was welcome. But there is a nagging question hovering above Osborne’s announcement today: has he done enough? The Chancellor will certainly hope so. After all, by scrapping the fuel duty escalator he has effectively encoded a tax cut into all of

James Forsyth

Lib Dems bringing home the bacon

There are a few big Lib Dem policy wins in this Budget, most notably the rise in the personal allowance and the introduction of land auctions. But there are also a few bits of rather unseemly pork barrel politics. Nick Clegg’s Sheffield gets an enterprise zone, which is probably fair enough. But we are also told that ‘following a thorough review, the government is approving the revised Sheffield retail quarter regeneration scheme.’ The south west, which has a disproportionately large number of Lib Dem seats, gets help to keep water bills down. Remote areas of Britain, which is expected to include the constituency represented by the Lib Dem chief whip

James Forsyth

Osborne pulls it off

George Osborne beat the expectations game today. His abolition of the fuel duty escalator for this parliament should — Elizabeth Taylor and Libya permitting — get him the front pages he wants. Aside from the headline measures, I think there are three stories that will run on from this Budget. First, the government is accepting the Hutton report’s recommendations on public sector pensions in full. This puts the ball firmly back in the unions court, who had previously accused the government of trying to cherry pick from it. Second, the requirement that all planning decisions will have to be reached within one year will have a big impact. A

Lloyd Evans

Dave’s rave

Friskier than a spaniel. That’s how Cameron seemed at today’s PMQs. The Gadaffi debacle has given him a Falklands bounce – prematurely one senses – and he was glowing like freshly made toast from the praise lavished on his performance on Monday. He seemed to want to share the good cheer with everyone else, even his opponents, and he offered thanks to Ed Miliband for his contribution, ‘which I thought was extremely powerful.’ Miliband sensed that attacking Cameron today would be like serving a writ on a man at his birthday party. He tried to pester the PM for ‘removing the mobility element from DLA’ but Cameron cut him down

Peter Hoskin

Budget 2011 live blog

1348, PH: And Ed Miliband comes to a close, still sounding the same note: that the growth downgrades prove the coalition is bad for the nation’s health. We’ll come to a close there, too. Thanks for tuning in. More Budget coverage on Coffee House all afternoon, starting with these graphs. 1244, PH: Ed Miliband is suggesting that Labour were tougher on the banks because their bonus tax raised £3.5 billion. Problem is, it’s esimated that, after other tax effects, the actual amount that ended up in Treasury coffers was more like £2 billion — if that. 1342, PH: Oh, Miliband’s back on growth again: “The OBR has factored in every

James Forsyth

Osborne’s white rabbit

We can expect at least one rabbit out of the hat in George Osborne’s Budget speech. The Chancellor is a canny enough operator to have held at least one big announcement back. Already this morning, we have had news that all councils will freeze or reduce their council tax next year. But I expect there is one more on fuel to come in the speech itself, possibly the suspension of the fuel duty escalator for this parliament. This move would be expensive but it would also say I feel your pain and stop Osborne having to come back to the price of petrol every year. For Ed Miliband, today will