Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Grumblings from the grassroots

LabourHome’s poll of Labour members – featured on the cover of today’s Independent – has caused quite a stir.  UK polling report summarises the criticism that a few Labour figures have levelled against it – i.e. that it’s not sufficiently scientific – but also points out that similar polls by ConservativeHome have proved quite accurate in the past.  Either way, the results are well worth a read.  Here are some of the headline findings: 46.2% want Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election. 53.8% would prefer someone else.   45.3% believe a change of leader would improve Labour’s General Election prospects. 27.7% believe a change would harm Labour’s prospects.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Reasons for Brown to be cheerful

The Brown demise is on a downward rollercoaster trajectory: it stabilises before it plunges again. I suspect that a period of stabilisation, and maybe even an upswing, is now on the cards. Yesterday went very well for him, and from the quotes I have seen he managed to get through even Jeff Randall on the Sky interview to be broadcast at 8pm tonight. Also, he may soon have another merger deal to point to.  EDF, which walked away from British Energy in July, will meet during the Labour Party conference to discuss a higher offer. Creating an entente nuclear is one of Brown’s main ambitions – something which justifies his

Thursday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown’s charade is working

At 8pm on Friday, Sky will broadcast an interview with Gordon Brown which seals off what will be his best day for months. The risible idea that he somehow played matchmaker between HBOS and Lloyds TSB proved irresistible to news editors last night. It fuses together the political crisis with the financial one and has been written into the script. Him bumping into the part-time chairman of board of Lloyds (not Eric Daniels, who actually runs the company) has been puffed up into the moment when (as one newspaper put it) Brown ordered banks to merge. It’s the perfect myth, which allows him to say “I’m your man for the economic meltdown.”

Peter Hoskin

An indebted nation

As Fraser and I point out in this week’s cover piece, Brown’s major legacy will be to saddle the next government – and the country – with unprecedented levels of debt.  There’s the prospect that around £100 billion of public money will be sunk into Northern Rock; there’s another £110 billion set aside for PFI projects, much of which is scandalously kept off the balance sheets; and that’s before we get onto the offical total government debt figure of around £600 billion. Problem is, that last figure is set to rise exponentially.  The latest public finance statistics (out today) reveal that from April to August this year the deficit grew by £28 billion –

Peter Hoskin

The Labour form book: David Miliband 

With the Brown premiership on the ropes, Coffee House takes a look at those who might succeed him as party leader.  In the run-up to the Labour Party conference this weekend, we’ll be profiling each of the main contenders.  And, once we’ve got through them, we’ll give you the chance to vote on which one you think would be the best for Labour.  We kick things off with the bookies’ favourite… David Miliband, 43, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Pros Youth: According to the “Milibama” strategy, Miliband’s youthful vim and vigour will go some way to rejuvenating the Labour project itself.  At the very least, it offers a stark

Peter Hoskin

Will Wheeler force the Tories to talk about Europe?

The major Tory donor Stuart Wheeler is to deliver an ultimatum to David Cameron tonight.  If the Tories fail to make two particular pledges in their next manfiesto, he’ll take his money elswhere.  And those pledges are:  1. A promise that if the Lisbon Treaty is not law when they come to power, they will hold a referendum on whether to withdraw UK ratification. 2. A promise that if the Lisbon Treaty is law when they come to power, there will be an immediate, massive renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with the EU. If the UK did not get what it wants, the UK should pull out of the Union altogether.

Peter Hoskin

The Blairites lurk in the shadows – for now

Rather than wading into the fray, Alan Milburn steps gingerly towards it with his article for the think tank Progress today.  Sure, he writes that “change beckons once again”, but he also holds back from questioning Gordon Brown’s leadership.  Why so timid?  I somehow doubt it’s because he supports Brown.  But rather because Blairites – like Milburn – have to be careful not to give No.10 any opportunity to portray the current rebellion as one masterminded by a rightist cabal.  This, I suspect, is the main reason why many major figures are biting their tongues for the time being.  Until the widest-possible coalition against Brown is built, their explicit involvement

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Not in My Name

Tom Harris, urbane and sensible blogger and, despite that, Labour MP for Glasgow South, writes: It’s called “Scotland’s shame” for a reason: sectarianism makes you feel embarrassed to be Scottish. I hate it when the subject is even raised when I’m with English friends because I imagine they must look at us as a backward nation. That is, after all, a logical conclusion: what kind of people still think it’s remotely acceptable even to care about what religion other people follow, never mind object to that religion? What kind of nation still tolerates this kind of mindset? This, of course, is the standard formula used by politicians and pundits. Sectarianism

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Political Advertising. Episode 1.

British observers of American politics tend to love the Yanks’ political advertising, even if many of those same observers might think it quite a good thing that we don’t permit (alas!) such advertising in Britain. Anyway, with the election now just six weeks away, this seems like a good time for an occasional series spotlighting classic, or at least memorable TV ads from previous elections. First up, Ronald Reagan’s famous “Bear” advertisement:

Peter Hoskin

Hutton PPS to resign

The Evening Standard reveals that Eric Joyce – the Falkirk MP and John Hutton’s PPS – is to step down from his government role after the Labour Party conference.  There’s been a lot of speculation over the past few days that Hutton himself will be the first Cabinet minister to resign in protest at the Brown premiership.  This can only fuel that rumour.

Peter Hoskin

Have the Tories hit 50 percent?

UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells is reporting a rumour that the Tories could have broken the 50 percent mark in tomorrow’s MORI poll.  The (very much unconfirmed) figures have the Tories at 52 percent, Labour at 24 percent and the Lib Dems at 12 percent.  That would give the Tories a hefty lead of 28 percent – which is significantly up on the 20-ish point leads they’ve enjoyed recently, and can only pile more pressure on Brown.  Watch this space. UPDATE: Poll results confirmed.

Peter Hoskin

The good, the bad and the jokes

In the end, I’d say Nick Clegg’s speech at the Lib Dem conference was so-so.  The very good parts were offset by the very bad parts, and there was a chunk of neither-here-nor-there material in between.  And all delivered in the now-ubiquitous, walk-around-the-stage-with-no-notes manner.  If you want to read the whole thing, there’s a copy of it here.  I’ll just deal with the two extremes: The very bad Clegg’s speech began like a stand-up routine.  And a terrible one, at that.  There was joke, after joke, after joke, at the expense of both Labour and the Tories.  The Government were likened to the “living dead -They are a Zombie government. A cross between

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

HBOS-Lloyds, as arranged by Gordon Brown?

Is Gordon Brown trying to take credit for the HBOS-Lloyds merger? Sounds implausible, but the blog of Robert Peston, Brown’s biographer, has this snippet: “I am hearing that this deal has been negotiated at a very high pay grade level, with the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, talking to Sir Victor Blank, chairman of Lloyds TSB, about how helpful it would be if Sir Victor could bring himself to end the uncertainty hanging over HBOS by buying it.” If this is true, I’m amazed the takeover went ahead, given that Brown tends to be 180 degrees wrong about any financial deal – whether it be selling gold at the bottom of

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Labour’s behaviour reminds me of the blind football at the Paralympics

The party’s MPs are fatally conflicted over Gordon Brown’s leadership, says Rod Liddle. Their craven conduct reflects the awkward fact that they overwhelminglychose him in the first place There was an interesting story in the newspapers this week about an American dog which rang 911, the emergency services, when his owner had a seizure. The details were a little hazy; we know that the dog was a German shepherd, but we do not know his or her name. Nor was it clear whether the animal used a landline to summon assistance, or if it had its own mobile phone. According to the emergency services, the dog, having successfully contacted 911,

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Gauging the Palin Effect

American readers may consider themselves fortunate that they have no idea who Tavish Scott is. English readers may do likewise. For that matter, so may many Scots. Nonetheless, Mr Scott, the new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats (titter ye not) did provide one public service at his party’s UK conference last week. He demonstrated the extent to which the Sarah Palin phenomenon has rippled across the world. In a speech watched by dozens, he told party delegates that if Scottish politics were American politics: you would observe that the only difference between Alex Salmond* and Annabel Goldie** is lipstick What a wag. *SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Future is Youthiness

Jonathan Rauch has a terrific, hilarious column about the McCain campaign. Highly recommended. Excerpt: “We need to go on offense. Our theme is that Barack Obama is too old for the job and that the public needs a younger, more vigorous brand of leadership. OK, here are some scripts we’re looking at.” “Wait, wait, wait. Wait. Do you need time off? I can give you a few days. Take some time. You’ve earned it.” “No, Senator. If you’ll just look at these scripts –“ “Steve, April Fool’s Day is seven months off. You want me to say Obama is too old to be president and I’m not?” “Yes.” “I’m younger

Peter Hoskin

Cairns to resign

Just to confirm the earlier story, the BBC are reporting that David Cairns – the Minister of State at the Scotland office – is going to resign in protest at Brown’s premiership.  As Iain Dale points out, the question now is of whether or not this will open the floodgates

Peter Hoskin

Does No.10 know what’s going on?

The whirlwind of rebellion rumours, claims and counter-claims continues to rampage around Westminster.  Will Caroline Flint act as a stalking horse?  Is John Hutton about to resign?  Which minister referred to Team Brown as “thugs”?  I, for one, don’t have the answers.  But you’d have expected No.10 to be more clued in than most.  Not so, if Ben Brogan’s latest blog post is anything to go by: “Somebody close to Jim Murphy called me a short while ago to assure me that the Minister for Europe is not about to resign. Now, I suppose you could say the same about quite a few members of the Government. What’s curious is that nobody had

Monday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Lib Dems’ tax cut con

Nick Clegg is right when he says that “Labour are on the wrong side of the biggest issue in British politics – the argument about the big state versus the smaller state.” But which side are the Liberal Democrats on? His plans for tax cuts look about as sound as a No10 soufflé. The 4p cut in income tax would be replaced by a local income tax – so a tax shift, not a tax cut. The £20 billion cuts in Whitehall spending are not all for tax relief, some of this (they don’t say how much) would be diverted to other state spending. Compared against the £679bn of state