Politics Archives

Wednesday

14 May 2008

The Wendy (and Gordon) Farces Never Close…

I wasn’t quite sure what to say about this. This being the Scottish Labour party’s latest attempt to finesse their position on the matter of an independence referendum. Happily, J Arthur MacNumpty summarises Labour’s position with admirable clarity: Labour are Unionists, so don’t want an independence referendum, but aren’t afraid of the verdict of the people, so want a referendum now, while waiting for the Calman Commission to present its findings, so want to set the timing and question of a referendum which they do want in a Bill which they can’t introduce and may even be ultra vires, and as they can’t introduce it, they have scored a victory

Fraser Nelson

Brown hits the airwaves

If you’ve had enough of Brown, stay away from television or radio tomorrow morning. No10 has been hawking him to every outlet from hospital radio upwards, and, if that’s not enough, a press conference is being organised. This is the Blair run-into-fire strategy, but I suspect it won’t work for Brown because the more he talks, the worse it gets for him. I don’t mean that as an insult, but a serious observation. Cameron’s aides take huge comfort from figures suggesting the more their man is on TV the better their ratings, while the reverse is true for Brown. This is regarded as a key factor in the Tory general

James Forsyth

The Blair era memoir that really will be worth reading

The memoirs of Cherie Blair, Lord Levy and John Prescott have all made this week even more difficult for Gordon Brown than it otherwise would have been. But I suspect that none of these books will survive the test of time. Alistair Campbell’s diaries might once the full version comes out but I suspect that the really great memoir of the Blair era will be Peter Mandelson’s. Mandelson was at the heart of events throughout and his shift from Brown to Blair can be seen as the moment when it became clear that the power that relationship had shifted. Those who think that it would be a hagiography of Blair should

Fraser Nelson

Is this how to help low-income earners?

As if proof were needed that this government has lost its grip, the centrepiece of today’s Not The Queen’s Speech is a plan to lure thousands of low-paid workers into state-sponsored negative equity. The government expects the housing market to crash by up to 10%, as we know from Caroline Flint. Yet today, Brown sets aside £200m to buy unsold houses, at the top of the market. And £100m to lure first time buyers into this crashing market with a shared equity scheme – or shared negative equity, as it will be. Only open to the lowest earners, i.e .those who can least afford negative equity. From the man who

Fraser Nelson

Can Purnell rescue Labour?

Can anyone take Labour out of this mess? I have previously dismissed the younger leaders on the grounds that they’d wait for Labour to lose, then try and get back. But with Brown’s ability to hit rock bottom and start drilling, they may be ushered forward anyway. There is never a right time, the best leaders are often decanted too early. David Cameron has grown into his job. So, too, could someone for Labour. And in tomorrow’s Spectator, we choose one: James Purnell. I can just feel the CoffeeHouser comments coming on now: he’s a spiv, more FHM than PM, A Stepford clone, a perfect example of Peter Oborne’s identikit

James Forsyth

Team Brown’s plan to stop the bleeding

The invaluable Ben Brogan has a great post up outlining how Team Brown plans to steady the ship. You realise quite how bad things have got, that the Brownites are now spinning that a narrow defeat in Crewe and Nantwich would be a result on which they could build.

Fraser Nelson

Brown survives PMQs | 14 May 2008

Last week, I said that Cameron should embark on a “save the Brown” exercise and be dull in PMQs, so as to cast the Prime Minister a lifeline. Perhaps he agrees. He was quite flat today, and Brown quite defiant. As always, I measure them against their usual standards – but this was not the scene of a Brown meltdown… Brown started on Burma, which – if you ask me – he should have stuck to non-stop in the last few days. “I have asked Ban Ki Moon to hold an emergency summit such as Kofi Annan held. I have asked him – and I believe he is considering this

James Forsyth

How low can they go?

Jonathan Freedland’s piece in The Guardian suggesting that it might be best for Labour to lose the next election is well worth reading. But this section particularly jumped out at me: One senior cabinet minister’s first reaction to the 24% share in the May 1 polls was to say, “It can get worse.” He conjures the figure 16% as a possible rock-bottom for Labour’s standing. One gets the feeling that the panic has truly kicked in with some. Brown’s fate hinges on whether they are resigned to their fate or if they see a way to save themselves and their party.

Peter Hoskin

PMQs video

Thanks to the indispensable Politics Home, here’s footage of the Brown vs Cameron exchange in PMQs today. Expect Fraser’s write-up shortly.

Peter Hoskin

Are people seeing through Darling’s new clothes?

The biggest worry surrounding Darling’s 10p tax con is that people will fall for it; that it will be the vote-winner Brown so clearly wants it to be. There were immediate signs yesterday that this might be the case. I highlighted a Political Betting graph which showed that – in the betting markets, at least – Labour’s hopes of winning in Crewe and Nantwich had been boosted by Darling’s move. However (and thanks to CoffeeHouser ‘Ian C’ for pointing this out), a new graph over at Political Betting reveals that the markets have settled right back to where they were before Darling’s statement. The con-trick may not have worked, after all. I think Mike Smithson’s exactly

Peter Hoskin

Morning, Darling

There’s plenty of comment rattling around this morning on Darling’s 10p tax compensation. The Guardian calls it “crude, simple and costly”, whilst the Mirror strains to remind us, “The bottom line is that 22 million low and middle-income earners will be £120 better off this year.” The best take, though, is Peter Riddell’s in the Times. Here’s his “bottom line”: “So the Treasury will have to raise a very large amount next year. This means either higher taxes or lower spending since higher borrowing cannot be continued. The public finances are not in a healthy state after the sharp rise in public spending since 2000. The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Tuesday

13 May 2008

Alex Massie

Where’s Blair?

Of course he’s off saving the world or, as Robert Harris puts it today, “He is already on to the next big thing in his career, with the premiership (in Alan Bennett’s wonderful phrase) merely a stage in his spiritual journey.” Time to give this a fresh airing then: Harris makes a serious point: the absence of any kind of Blair legacy is itself a problem for Gordon Brown. And it’s also the case that despite Brown’s hapless performance and his seemingly doomed ministry I’ve yet to hear a single person express the wish that if only that nice Mr Blair could return… [Hat-tip: Clive Davis]

James Forsyth

Mocking Balls

David Cameron’s joke-filled appearance before the Commons press gallery is getting pretty good write ups. Boulton and Co highlights one joke that I rather imagine would go down as well with certain members of the Cabinet as it did with the hacks: “Ed Balls is the man with the most appropriate surname since Trevor Crapper invented the lavatory.” This might be Punch and Judy politics but it does serve the Tories’ tactical purposes. First, gags like this help keep Tory morale high. Second, Balls tends to rise to the bait—he did so with disastrous effect during Cameron’s response to the Budget. Third, Balls is phenomenally close to Gordon but a divisive figure

Peter Hoskin

Darling boosts Labour’s Crewe hopes

Political Betting have put together a neat graph, showing the effect that Alistair Darling’s 10p compensation package has had on Labour chances in Crewe and Nantwich. As far as the betting markets are concerned, the move has boosted Labour hopes. Which is exactly what Brown & Darling wanted in the first place…

Fraser Nelson

The start of scorched-earth policy?

So, does this make Crewe the most expensive by-election in British history? It will cost £2.7 billion for Darling’s move to try win back votes lost from his 10p tax debacle – but the money isn’t there. So what does he do? Blithely slaps it on the national deficit. Now and again, Labour bangs on about a “black hole” in Tory proposals of one or two billion. And yet they jack up the national debt in this way without so much as blinking. I suppose the more Brown thinks Labour will lose the next election, the more minded he will be to vandalise the public finances. This may be the

Peter Hoskin

Women and politics poll

I’d recommend you take a look at Grazia magazine’s new poll – ‘Women and politics survey 2008’. As you’d expect – with a title like that – all the respondents are women, and they come out broadly in favour of Cameron & Co. For instance, 33 percent would vote Tory if there was a general election tomorrow, compared to only 14 percent for Labour. And 26 percent think David Cameron will keep his promises, compared to 16 percent for Brown. And that’s before we get to which politician would ‘deliver the best performance in bed’… There is one grain of comfort, though, for Brown. He beats Cameron on the question

Fraser Nelson

The high cost of living

In his highly entertaining press conference yesterday, Ed Balls referred to “low inflation.” Today’s inflation bombshell makes such a claim impossible. Against expectations of 2.6% CPI for April, the figure is 3% – the highest rise in six years. This is hugely political. The cost of living is top doorstep issue – so it’s important to establish why Gordon Brown speaks with forked tongue when he blames it all “global turbulence”. Today’s inflation report repays closer examination. My thoughts:- 1) Plunging pound. Since Brown took over the pound has nosedived and is now 12% weaker in general – literally Black Wednesday magnitude. Who’s to blame for that? Opec? Bush? Brown

James Forsyth

What’s next? | 13 May 2008

John Rentoul, who has always been sceptical of Brown’s chances and abilities, thinks that Frank Field’s attack on Brown might have been a tipping point: “But his personal unkindness may have broken some kind of barrier, and now all the scenarios for how Brown might go are being canvassed and seem plausible. What, now, if ministers were to resign, saying that the party cannot win with Brown as leader?” In the febrile atmosphere at Westminster at the moment, anything seems possible. Rumours that would have been dismissed out of hand just a few weeks ago, now seem plausible. If Labour does lose the Crewe and Nantwitch by-election, the temperature will

James Forsyth

Brown loses his Compass

Given the speed and nature of current events, there is a real danger that we in the press start to hyperventilate, declaring the Brown government doomed before breakfast every day. But the piece by Neal Lawson, the chair of Compass, in The Independent calling on Brown to return to the Treasury for the good of the movement does seem like a seismic moment. (Although, Compass has been critical of Brown recently this is the first time it has called on the leader to step down) Compass cannot be dismissed as a fringe group. It is representative of the broad left—just look at the list of speakers it has lined up

Monday

12 May 2008

Alex Massie

The Brown Chronicles: The Laughing Stock Years

Memo to Gordon Brown. This sot of caper explains why people are beginning to think you are in fact a fool: div#related-article-links p a, div#related-article-links p a:visited { color:#06c; } Gordon Brown will not receive the Dalai Lama in Downing Street in an effort to avoid confrontation with China over Tibet, The Times has learnt. The Prime Minister will, instead, see the Tibetan spiritual leader in Lambeth Palace, home of the Archbishop of Canterbury, enabling him to claim to the Chinese that he is receiving the Dalai Lama in a spiritual rather than political capacity. What is the point of this nonsense? It’s like the decision to sign the Lisbon