It’s yet another 20-ish point for the Tories in the latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. They’re on 46 percent (up 1 on last month); Labour are on 27 (up 2); and the Lib Dems on 16 (down 2). I guess it’s fair to say that Brown’s economic recovery package – or what we’ve seen of it so far – isn’t making much difference.
The problem for Brown is that the foreseeable future doesn’t present many opportunities to close the gap. He’d have pencilled in the party conference as a chance to do something – anything – to get some of the public back on side; be it a wave of policy announcements or a rousing speech. Problem is, the leadership speculation – which lay dormant only temporarily – is back with a vengeance, and should now completely dominate the conference narrative.
Of course, a lack of opportunites for Brown translates to greater opportunities for the Tories. As the Government performs its ferrets-in-a-sack act, the Tories have plenty of space to outline a policy agenda which will not only solidify their current support but attract a few more swing voters as well. On that front, one finding in the YouGov poll stands out. 28% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Conservative if the Tories announced they’d cut public spending to make room for tax cuts. Only 7 percent said they’d be less likely.
It’s good news for team Osborne – who’s expected to outline such a move in his conference speech – and another sign that the “Labour investment vs. Tory cuts” message of the past decade is breaking down. But the YouGov poll shows that Tories still have work to do on the economic policy front. 19% of respondents thought a Tory government will bring lower taxes for “people like me”, whilst 23% thought their taxes would be increased.
In truth, this scepticism about the Tories’ ability to cut taxes is most likely because they haven’t yet fleshed out their economic framework – a nebulous phrase like “sharing the proceeds growth” just doesn’t really say much about anything. But now that formula is more or less obsolete, the Tories have got to start convincing people that – under their new programme – any spending cuts will bring appreciable benefits; and that those benefits will be felt across society.
Luckily for the Tories, the Government’s difficulties mean both that they can spend time, with few distractions, fine-tuning this message, and that they have a more receptive audience than ever. But with that, there’s even more pressure to pitch the message right. Will the Tories do so? We’ll find out at the end of the month, when Cameron and Osborne take to the stage in Birmingham.
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