Politics

This morning the chances of an early election have receded considerably but it is not over yet. Gordon Brown receives internal polling today and tomorrow and if these numbers look good he might still go for it. Indeed, if one was a Labour Pangloss one might even say that there is a benefit in the Tory bounce in that if Brown called an election now the first polls of the campaign would see the Tories falling back as the memories of conference faded. The person guiding Gordon through these polling numbers will be Deborah Mattinson. Mattinson is one of Brown’s closest advisers and runs many of the Citizen Juries on

The Tories have issued a document defending their plan to pay for the £3.5bn cost of their inheritance tax cut by taxing non dom. Still, the only source they can cite for their claim there will be 150,000 non doms to tax is Accountancy Age magazine. That’s because there is no reliable data: the Tories and the Treasury are fighting each other by stabbing in the dark. No one knows how many non doms there are, how much they earn or how many would skedaddle if asked to give £25k a year to a Tory government. I’m relaxed about funding inheritance tax cuts, though. The state will take £553bn this

I must have been watching some other conference. Judging by the general view taken of David Cameron’s speech to the Tory conference yesterday this was a masterly exercise in understated urbanity. What I heard instead was a rambling and diffuse statement of aims, conspicuous only in its failure to communicate energy and ambition. Of course it’s true that post-Blair we’ve become suspicious of false messiahs and glib oratory. Nowadays we shudder at those creepy millenarian visions the former prime minister used to dish out when addressing Labour conferences. But a political leader seeking to take his party into government after long years in opposition needs star qualities of drive rather

Martin Bright sheds light on what Brown’s inner circle are thinking about an early election in this week’s New Statesman. What stands out, though, is how thin-skinned they are.  Danny Finkelstein’s story about the influence of Bob Shrum on his conference speech has clearly got under their skin. One aide tells Bright that, “The behaviour of the Tories and some sections of the media shows they are already electioneering. Why should Gordon put up with another six months of this when he can’t fight back?” Also note how Camilla Cavendish reveals in The Times this morning that, “The Prime Minister’s penchant for calling certain journalists in the early hours of

A few hours on from the end of conference and the new political landscape is becoming clearer. David Cameron has succeeded in uniting the Conservative party and the right more broadly behind him. The policies announced in Blackpool mean that Conservatives of all stripes now have positive reasons to want a Tory government. The leadership has also succeeded in distilling the work of the policy groups without anyone’s toys disappearing out of the pram. The more challenging bit comes now: they have to win over the country. As Tim notes, the news segments on the speech have been positive but watching them it is hard to feel that the case

What planet am I from? What have I been smoking? Matt and Fraser understand politics far better than I can ever hope to, but after reading their blogs I can scarcely believe we all witnessed the same event this afternoon. What I saw was a car crash, or at any rate an accident in a school playground. On Monday, with George Osborne’s pledge on inheritance tax, the Tories had the metropolitan Guardian vote more or less in the bag, and for 24 hours they looked like possible winners. Today they look like losers again. David Cameron’s speech was a feat of memory but of nothing else. It was the same

Hilariously, Labour is briefing that Gordon Brown did not watch Cameron’s speech. I suspect they wouldn’t be saying that if Dave had bombed. The more people I speak to, the greater the reception seems to be. George Osborne was joking that he should photograph and frame yesterday’s papers, the best he’d see in a while. Tomorrow’s may be just as good for Cameron. PS Cameron now sitting a few seats down from me on the train in goat class. Letwin in first. Correction: Though Letwin told me he was going to First (“It is a business trip”) he ended up sitting behind Cameron when the leader took his place in