Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Reshuffle, Kerfuffle

Melissa Kite’s story in the Sunday Telegraph about a coming Tory reshuffle has ruffled feathers. This morning, via the indispensable Conservative Home, comes a highly personal attack on Kite from Alan Duncan who accuses her of “shoddy journalism”, “poor judgement” and tops things off with the line that, “If she really thinks this is authoritative then I doubt she will soon either enjoy much respect or access”.  Duncan’s full-frontal assault is spectacularly ill judged. Cameron is going to have reshuffle soon, even if only in response to the coming reshaping of government under Brown, and considering that Kite has great Tory contacts and a record of breaking stories she is almost

The Spectator

Paralysis at Holyrood?

The Scottish Parliament is often reported by London newsreaders as a proxy for Scottish public opinion. In truth, it’s an institution held in wide contempt – and the desultory 52% turnout (in what was a knife-edge election) speaks volumes. This is the first fact to consider when judging the problems which Alex Salmond is facing this week. Look at the final results. The SNP was supported by just 17% of the electorate (and 32.9% of votes cast against Labour’s 32.2%). It was the largest party by just 15,800 votes of the 2.02 million cast. It is the thinnest imaginable mandate. Sensing this weakness, the Scottish LibDems have refused to enter

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

How Sarko will cause trouble for Brown and Cameron

Nicolas Sarkozy is going to cause problems for both Gordon Brown and David Cameron. The headache for Cameron, as Matt pointed out the other day, is that Sarkozy sounds far more right-wing than he actually is. His victory speech was full of the kind of red-meat rhetoric that much of the Tory grassroots and press are yearning to hear. Just take this passage, which would—with Britain substituted for France—have them on their feet roaring for more at conference: I am thus going to restore the status of work, authority, standards, respect, merit. I am going to give the place of honour back to the nation and national identity. I am

Sunday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The latest buzz on Reid’s resignation

The latest Westminster gossip: he was told by Gordon Brown he wouldn’t be Home Secretary or Foreign Secretary—the only acceptable alternative for him. Perhaps Brown thought his cabinet would be too Scottish, perhaps he wanted to make way for these new young faces and have ”maximum flexibility” (Reid’s words not Brown’s) for his reshuffle. Or perhaps, Brown didn’t want to govern with a rival power base in the cabinet, which the indomitable Reid would certainly have become. So Reid chose the back benches over demotion, just as Charles Clarke did. I gather Reid won’t be giving interviews in the next couple of days, so we’ll have to wait for the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Exit polls predict Sarkozy win

Belgium TV are reporting that Nicolas Sarkozy has got 53-54% of the vote in the French presidential election according to early exit polls. These are only exit polls but they got the first round result pretty much spot on. France’s purely proportional system makes these polls far less prone to error than they are in this country or the States. More analysis coming soon.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Reid resigns

The unravelling of New Labour starts here. John Reid’s decision to quit the cabinet today is loaded with unanswered questions. He has said he’ll back Gordon Brown as leader, but did he decide he couldn’t work with Brown? Did they have a fundamental disagreement about the level of autonomy he’d receive as Home Secretary? Did Reid—keeper of the Blairite flame—decide the show is over and that it’s time to leave the stage? Reid is a rare talent in the government, easily the best communicator in the cabinet. There’s no doubt that Gordon Brown’s government will be the weaker for his absence. Will he now retire to his house in the

Matthew Dancona

Brown’s media management

When John Major was at his most paranoid, he used to have every edition of the Evening Standard brought to him by a flunky in his study – whereupon he would jab at the page and blame specific colleagues for specific leaks. In his final months, Iain Duncan Smith acquired a similar habit, saying to Tory frontbenchers: “I see you got a good write up on page 23, paragraph four” – or words to that effect. So this interesting piece on Gordon and the press does not inspire confidence.

Saturday

Clemency Burtonhill

Cameron is taking on Brown

Nothing much is certain in British politics these days, but assuming that the next general election will pit Gordon Brown against David Cameron, we can be sure of one thing: its result will be a referendum on rebranding. Can the slick young pretender convince the cynics out there that the Conservatives are no longer a party of posh toffs with nasty views on immigration and labour markets? Can the dour old Scot loosen up a bit and stop making the electorate feel so very uncomfortable? Even with a couple of years to go (Brown being increasingly less likely to call a snap election with Labour as much in the doldrums

The Spectator

A legacy for us all

It is bleakly symmetrical that Tony Blair’s tenth anniversary as Prime Minister should have fallen in the same week as the Scottish, Welsh and local elections. But it was no less apt that the PM should have passed this milestone the day after the conviction of five British Islamists who plotted to blow up a crowded nightclub or shopping centre: the fruits of Operation ‘Crevice’ by the police and security services in 2004. The contrast between the sunlit expectations of 2 May 1997 and the angry mood of the electorate this week could scarcely be sharper. The Blair decade has been one of dashed expectations. But it has also been

Friday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The ideal result

When I was a reporter in the Scottish Parliament seven years ago, I wrote a piece on the life of the poor Hansard reporters up there. The MSPs were not the most educated types and the Official Report staff had to un-garble their words every night. They claimed some was Scots. But one phrase made it through to the record: a Scottish Nationalist saying his rival was “elected by a ba hair of 38 votes”. Today, the SNP won the Scottish Parliament by a ba’ hair of one seat: 47 seats to 46. Or, 32.2% to 32.9%. Savour this result: it is just enough to oust Labour, give them  a spanking

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is it too painful to say the Tories did well?

Last night I said that it looked like being a mediocre result for David Cameron, well it looks like it was substantially better than that. The Tories have quietly rattled up 875 gains, far more than the 600 or so that they were expected to get. So the Tories must be considered, alongside the SNP, as the big winners. But you wouldn’t know that from listening and watching the Beeb today, who have diverted their eyes from anything as distasteful as a Tory triumph. This isn’t the first time the BBC has downplayed Tory local election success. They did exactly the same in 2003 when Crispin Blunt resigned straight after

Matthew Dancona

The worst possible start for Brown

I started the day unsure that the political landscape had changed but 12 hours is a long time in politics. Few moments deserve to be called historic, but the fall of Scotland to the SNP is amongst them. In theory this brings Scottish independence closer than at any time since the Home Rule Bill of 1913. But its greater significance is personal. However he wriggles and squirms, Gordon Brown cannot escape the tartan brush with which he has just been rudely tarred. Scotland was meant to be his fiefdom and it has fallen out of Labour hands – just as Dunfermline and West Fife, which Labour lost in a by-election

The Spectator

Why PR is bad

The situation about to unfold in Scotland is why I can’t stand PR. First of all, not one voter will get the government they actually voted for. Instead, politicians will disappear off into the modern equivalent of smoke-filled rooms and thrash out a deal while the public desperately tries to see in the window. Also, the Greens—despite only having two MSPs, down from seven last time, and a miniscule percentage of the vote—will hold the balance of power if the Lib Dems and the SNP can come to an agreement. It is a truly perverse system that makes a party that lost 70 percent of its seats into the kingmakers.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

SNP the biggest party in the Scottish Parliament

So, finally we know the news from Scotland and it’s not good for Gordon Brown. The SNP have 47 seats to Labour’s 46. During the campaign, the Lib Dems made clear that they would enter coalition talks with the largest party first. But even if the SNP and Lib Dems make a deal they still be 2 seats short of a majority. The horse-trading is about to begin. 

Hywel Williams

Welsh Tory Revival

It wil be a while before Welsh Tories officially rename themselves  ‘Ceidwadwyr Cymru’ . But their renaissance on the political map shows them coming home with last night’s results representing the party’s best result since the general election of 1983 when they got 13 seats. Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen west with Pembrokeshire south are both part of the old undivided seat of Pembroke-a famously maverick constituency which went independent Labour in the 60’s and then Conservative in the 70’s. Tories now have a good chance of winning these two Westminster seats at the next general election. The same goes for Clwyd West in north-east Wales which also went Tory last night: this

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Respectable not sensational

I went to bed at 5.30am thinking “Well, I’ll wake up and know the result”. It’s now Friday lunchtime, and we’re none the wiser. Who won Scotland? Labour and SNP are on a knife-edge with 100,000 supposedly spoiled ballots. An incredible drama is unfolding, a Scottish version of the “hanging chad” nonsense that bedevilled George W Bush’s election in 2000. Whatever happened last night, there was no Labour bloodbath. Its results were bad, but not calamitous. The Tories had a few respectable gains, but as far as I can see those four cities – Gateshead, Manchester, Liverpool and Knowsley – remain Tory-free zones. Ming Campbell is trying his best not

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The forgotten party of British politics

Conservative Home asks why there isn’t more speculation about Ming Campbell’s future. It does seem odd how easy a ride he’s been given considering that the Lib Dems must be sorely disappointed by the results. But no one talking about why Ming must go is actually the worst possible news for him as it demonstrates how he and the Lib Dems are the forgotten folk of British politics. When the press can’t even be bothered to even fuel leadership speculation you know you’re in trouble. The situation is just going to get worse for the Lib Dems. For the next few months the media will fixate on Blair’s departure and

Matthew Dancona

How good a night was it for the Tories?

The general view so far which I myself posted earlier is that this has been a respectable rather than seriously impressive night for the Tories. However, see Iain Dale’s analysis for a different perspective which should give all Tories cause for cheer.

The Spectator

Required viewing for all MPs

It’s a pity that the elections yesterday coincided with Molly Dineen’s documentary ‘The Lie of the Land’ because I imagine that the minister of agriculture (or minister of Naff, Maff, Defra or whatever it’s called now) was too busy with politics to be watching Channel 4 last night. Shame. The film looked at a way of life — farming — that is facing extinction. ‘They [the government] want the land as a playground for people in the towns,’ said one Cornish farmer. We have become ‘unreal about animals…treating meat as something that comes in cellophane’, as another put it. We spent a third of our income on food in the