Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Thursday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

‘The strategy is do everything now’: Truss’s big mini-Budget

Liz Truss is in a race against time. It’s not just the prospect of an election in two years. It’s the political problems – from party management to events outside of one’s control – that quickly clog up a prime minister’s in-tray. It’s why for all the efforts to play down Friday’s fiscal event as a mini-Budget, it is likely to be anything but small. Truss and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng plan to push through as much as possible while their stock is highest. The official budget – complete with a long-awaited OBR forecast – will come later this winter, but, inside government, Friday is viewed as the bigger event.

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Why the interest rate rise might frustrate Liz Truss

Rising interest rates is a key pillar of Trussonomics. Liz Truss herself has always stopped short of saying this explicitly, pointing fingers instead at the Bank of England for its failure to curb spiralling inflation. But the economists advising her have made clear, in no uncertain terms, that they think interest rates have been too low for too long.  Right from the start of her leadership campaign, Truss was far more vocal about her criticisms of the Bank; a point made even clearer once she entered No. 10 and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng set up bi-weekly meetings with the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey. With this new pressure being applied on the

Ian Acheson Ian Acheson

Northern Ireland’s future isn’t Catholic or Protestant

For the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, Catholics now outnumber Protestants. Census data on national identity and religious from 2021, which was published today, shows that Catholics born into or practising their religion make up 45.7 per cent of the population, with Protestants at 43.5 per cent. In the bleak zero-sum world of Irish confessional demographics, that translates into a headcount victory for those champing at the bit to end British rule there. There’s no denying the figures are momentous. They will be gleefully weaponised by those who have no interest in a truly shared or reconciled future. But the headline numbers don’t reveal everything about the state of

Andrew Tettenborn

Is the EU’s crackdown on Hungary a bluff?

Brussels appeared to be finally getting serious with a rogue member state this week. A couple of days ago it announced that it would use its power – which it obtained last year – to withhold €7.5 billion (approximately £6.4 billion) from Hungary unless Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz government cleaned up its act on corruption. The EU, it is fair to say, has a point. Like a number of other eastern European countries, Hungary is not known for the trustworthiness of its officials, or for its scrupulous avoidance of nepotism and favouritism in awarding state contracts. Nevertheless, as is often the case with EU affairs, outward appearances can be misleading. The

Katherine Bayford

Putin’s conscripts won’t fix the Russian army’s big flaw

Vladimir Putin’s decision to call up reservists is a sign of Russia’s desperation. It is also unlikely to do anything to address the real problem facing the country’s military: the woeful way in which its troops are organised. ‘No plan of operations,’ wrote Moltke the Elder in 1871, ‘extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.’ The Russian military struggled from the outset in Ukraine, but particular structural issues within the army itself have exacerbated their woes. Sending more troops to Ukraine risks simply plugging gaps left by poor military structuring. The war in Ukraine has highlighted many weaknesses in the command of Russia’s armed

Wednesday

The Spectator

In search of Trussonomics

When Liz Truss entered the leadership race there was no such thing as ‘Trussonomics’. She began her campaign with no real expectation of winning and without any serious guiding philosophy. Rishi Sunak did her a great service by portraying her throughout the leadership campaign as a crazed tax-cutter, a disciple of Ronald Reagan. But in truth, her economic policy was nowhere near as coherent as Sunak made out. Truss just about scraped through the soundbite war of the debates, but without any real pro-growth, tax-cutting agenda. All she pledged to do during her campaign was to freeze forthcoming corporation tax rises and shave 1 per cent off National Insurance. This

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Wes Streeting: we need the private sector to help reform the NHS

When Labour MPs gossip about who could be their next leader, Wes Streeting’s name invariably comes up. Like Angela Rayner, the party’s deputy leader, Labour’s shadow health secretary spends half his time insisting he’s not running for the top job. Also like Rayner, he’s never actually stood for it – yet. But there have been plenty of moments in the past year when some of his comrades have wished he was the leader of the opposition rather than Keir Starmer. Streeting became suspiciously more visible as the ‘Beergate’ investigation into whether Starmer and Rayner breached Covid restrictions reached its climax earlier this year. When I mentioned his frequent media appearances

Julian Jessop

The Energy Price Guarantee may cost much less than is feared

Critics of ‘Trussonomics’ – and there are many – have been quick to claim that the new energy price plan puts its economic credibility at risk. Indeed, early estimates suggested that the ‘Energy Price Guarantee’ could cost the taxpayer £150 billion or more over two years, making it the most expensive economic policy in history. More than the furlough scheme, more than even the bank bailouts. Fortunately, the bill looks like it will be a lot smaller and sceptics are set to be proved wrong. The Prime Minister proposes to cap the unit price of energy for households for two years, starting next month, with the government compensating suppliers for

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Liz Truss’s first big test

Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are determined to show that Britain’s economy is under new management. They want to indicate through their decisions – such as cancelling the corporation tax rise and reversing the National Insurance rise – that they are breaking away from the fiscal approach of recent years. More broadly, they want to emphasise that growth is their priority. In contrast to Boris Johnson’s attempts at people-pleasing, Truss is happy to declare she is prepared to be unpopular if that is what it takes to get the economy moving. She is dismissive of arguments about the distributional impact of tax cuts. At the same time, Kwarteng is scrapping

Oliver Basciano

Brace yourself for a coup in Brazil

‘Jail, death or victory.’ These are the three alternatives Brazil’s incumbent leader says await him. It is an unusual rallying call for an election campaign, but this is Jair Bolsonaro, the ‘Trump of the Tropics’, and he may well be right. Bolsonaro was elected in 2018 when his initial rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the country’s former president, was jailed midway through the campaign on corruption charges. Bolsonaro, a relative unknown, beat the replacement Workers party candidate by a ten percentage point margin. His formula was to focus on anti-corruption and conduct his campaign predominantly via social media. The use of YouTube, Facebook and, most importantly, the gargantuan WhatsApp

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Is this really the moment to scrap bankers’ bonuses?

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng – keen to sharpen the City’s competitive edge, we’re told – wants to remove the legislative cap, imported from Brussels in 2014, that limits bankers’ bonuses to 100 per cent of their base salary, or up to 200 per cent with shareholder approval. That raises interesting questions. Was the cap a good idea in the first place? If not, why wasn’t it binned as soon as we left the EU? Is now the ideal moment to do so? And are bankers still a breed of greedy bastards? The answer to the first question is certainly not. This column called the cap a ‘boneheaded’ measure that would merely

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Labour has a problem – but it’s not Keir Starmer

I see that Green campaigning groups are angry that the Conservative party has received donations from the aviation industry, because they are not in favour of aeroplanes. Or, at least, these campaigners are not in favour of aeroplanes until they need to use one to get somewhere. A holiday at some eco lodge in Indonesia, perhaps, where they get to gurn at an orangutan and chide the locals about logging. The protestors, then, simultaneously want the aviation industry not to exist but still to avail themselves of its services: this is another marvellous example of the left’s flight from reality. It is all a little like the various institutions which

Matthew Lynn

The painful road to lower inflation

In the end, it could have been worse. The Federal Reserve might have followed Sweden’s lead, with a whole one point rise in interest rates, or it could have even decided to short-circuit the whole process and go straight for a 1.5 per cent increase. Instead, it opted for the safer course, imposing a 0.75 per cent increase in rates much as the market expected. Even so, it made one thing absolutely clear. It is not going to let up in its battle to bring inflation back under control – and the rest of the world will have no option but to follow its lead. The markets were primed for

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Will Truss’s plans to spend big work?

Big spending announcements tend to come alongside big press conferences. During the pandemic years, furlough announcements, extensions and business support were delivered in front of a podium, with rough figures usually attached to each policy. It was the same for the energy crisis, at the start. But as the costs of the support schemes rose, we started to lose transparency. The £9 billion announcement in February came with a headline figure and a rough breakdown of where the money would come from. The £15 billion announcement in May came with a headline figure, but much of the funding stream was glossed over, assumed to be borrowed. These multi-billion pound support

Katy Balls Katy Balls

What’s behind Putin’s mobilisation?

15 min listen

Vladimir Putin warned the West that, if pushed, Russia would use a nuclear weapon. How seriously should we take his threat? And reports emerged overnight that Liz Truss will cut stamp duty to increase demand for housing. But will that help more people get onto the housing ladder? Katy Balls speaks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman. Produced by Max Jeffery.

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Something extraordinary is happening in Iran

The images coming out of Iran are remarkable. Women are ripping off their hijabs and burning them in public. They’re dancing in the streets and shaking their freed hair as onlookers whoop and cheer. These are stunning acts of defiance in a theocratic state in which women are expected to mildly, meekly accept their status as covered-up second-class citizens. Of course these heart-stirring protests are a response to something unimaginably awful: the death of Mahsa Amini. Mahsa, a beautiful 22-year-old Kurdish woman from the city of Saqqez in Iranian Kurdistan, was arrested by the morality police in Tehran last week for failing to wear her hijab in the ‘appropriate’ way.

William Atkinson

Oxford’s Oriental name change is a mistake

Oxford’s Faculty of Oriental Studies has had a name change: it will now be known as the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies. University bigwigs opted to drop the word ‘oriental’ over fears that it might be too outdated and potentially offensive. This is a small-minded attack on a great and important subject. It’s also a distraction from the university’s real problems. The word’s presence in the faculty’s name hasn’t stopped Oxford from accepting more students from China, India, and the rest of what we once knew as the ‘Orient’ than ever previously – just as Cecil Rhodes’ statue hasn’t prevented the university from having more black students than ever before. So if

Bob Seely MP

How should the West respond to Putin’s nuclear threats?

Can this really be happening? Sadly, the answer is yes. President Putin has just reiterated his threat to use nuclear weapons and announced that Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory will become part of the Russian Federation. Is nuclear weapon use likely or certain? No, not by any means, and we should speak with a sense of proportion and care. Putin wants us to be frightened. But we also need to stop burying our heads in the sand, as we have done with Russia for too long. To minimise the chances of nuclear use – tactical or strategic – we must assume that the threat is real and that at some point, probably

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Kay Burley’s ‘gotcha’ backfires

After a brief hiatus during the course of the country’s morning period, it appears that the British broadcasters are back to doing what they know best: namely, trying to catch out politicians. Mr S wonders though if some of them may need a bit better material. This week the new Secretary of State for Digital, Michelle Donelan appeared on the broadcast round where she was grilled by Sky’s Kay Burley. In the interview, clearly thinking she was onto a winner, Burley quizzed Donelan about her brief 36-hour period as education secretary before she resigned over the Chris Pincher scandal, which entitled her to a severance payout of just under £17,000.