Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The most revealing line in Dowden’s resignation letter

The resignation of the party chairman Oliver Dowden is so damaging for Boris Johnson because the issue in Tiverton was not the campaign that CCHQ ran. You can’t put a 30 point swing down to the choice of candidate or the campaign tactics. Dowden is a party man through and through, a loyalist to the core. He worked at CCHQ, then in David Cameron’s Downing Street before becoming an MP. He has helped prepare the last three Tory leaders for PMQs. He isn’t seen as particularly personally ambitious which makes his resignation all the more telling: no one can accuse him of being on leadership manoeuvres. In 2019, Dowden’s backing of

Steerpike Steerpike

Tory party chair: runners and riders

So. Farewell then Oliver Dowden. The Hertsmere MP resigned as co-chairman of the Conservative party this morning, following last night’s by-election defeats in Tiverton and Wakefield. He was appointed to the post in September and was tasked with guiding the Tory machine through the mid-term blues and focus CCHQ on winning the next general election. Now though, he’s gone, and a successor must be appointed. The Tories have opted in recent years to adopt a co-chairmanship model. Typically one is an oleaginous, wealthy individual whose job is to raise funds from other oleaginous, wealthy individuals. This role was performed with aplomb by Lord Feldman during the Cameron years and is now

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Is Boris Johnson heading for a 1997 moment?

10 min listen

In a major blow, the Conservatives have lost two seats in the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections. Immediately after, the Conservative party chairman, Oliver Dowden resigned citing ‘a deeply personal decision’ following a ‘run of very poor results for our party’. The Lib Dems overturned a huge Tory majority in Tiverton and Honiton, Devon, their third by-election victory over Boris Johnson’s party in a year. What does this suggest about the public mood towards their current government? ‘At the moment, Boris Johnson motivates the anti-Tory vote more than the Tory vote’ – James Forsyth Isabel Hardman is joined by Katy Balls and James Forsyth

Steerpike Steerpike

Tory MPs: don’t blame Boris for these by-elections

The partygate scandal has left a long hangover. Westminster is waking up to the news that Tory seats in both the ‘red’ and ‘blue wall’ have fallen respectively to the Lib Dems and Labour. In true form, Sir Ed Davey is claiming the Tiverton result is the ‘biggest by-election victory we’ve ever seen’ (it wasn’t) while it transpires that harping on about Harold Shipman in Wakefield isn’t a good strategy for holding a northern marginal either. Oliver Dowden, the Conservative party co-chair, has already bit the bullet this morning by resigning – but there’s one person who definitely isn’t to blame according to some of his colleagues: Boris Johnson. Already the

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Tories shouldn’t bin Boris yet

If only they had waited until today. Had Tory MPs cleared the threshold for a confidence vote in Boris Johnson this morning – amid the smouldering embers of two blazing by-election defeats – rather than earlier in the month, then he would surely be toast. As it is, all that the Prime Minister’s many critics in the Conservative parliamentary party can do is seethe and wait a while for another opportunity to topple him. As someone determined to continue in office, Johnson is able to do so unchallenged until 6 June, 2023, absent of an emergency change in 1922 Committee rules. Some Tory MPs will now push for such a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What will the anti-Boris rebels do now?

Looking at these Tory losses, it is hard not to conclude that the rebels would have got the 180 votes they needed to oust Boris Johnson if they had been organised enough to wait until after the by-elections before going for a vote of no confidence. But having had a vote two weeks ago, it is not credible to suggest changing the rules immediately to allow another one. However, judging from the conversations I have had with Tory MPs this morning, more of them would now like the option of having another vote sooner than a year from now. Some talk about the autumn, others about March. In a way, Oliver

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is Boris heading for a 1997 moment?

Why was the Tory defeat in 1997 so heavy? One of the reasons was that the anti-Tory vote tended to coalesce around the candidate most likely to defeat the Tory in each place. Tactical voting in 1997 cost the Tories 30 seats, turning a bad defeat into a catastrophe. Last night provides evidence that this is happening again, that in British politics there are now two blocs, the Tories and the anti-Tories. Take Tiverton. In the last two elections, Labour came second there. But in this by-election, they lost their deposit as their vote share dropped by 16 per cent.  This isn’t because voters in rural Devon are particularly unpersuaded by

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

By-election results in six graphs

Last night’s by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton have proved disastrous for the Tories. Labour took Wakefield by 4,925 votes – a swing of almost 13 per cent. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile put another dent in the ‘blue wall’ taking Tiverton by 6,144 and achieving a massive 30 per cent swing. The Tiverton and Honiton result highlights the trouble Boris’s government finds itself in. The seat has been Conservative – and with a large majority – since its creation in 1997. But even before that seats in the area had been Tory since Queen Victoria was on the throne. Turnout was well below general election levels. In Wakefield, just 39

Nick Tyrone Nick Tyrone

These by-elections were not a revolt against Brexit

The optics this morning could not look any worse for the Conservative party. They have been defeated by Labour in a red wall constituency – demonstrating how vulnerable they are to losing seats newly won in 2019. And they have suffered a crushing defeat against the Lib Dems in a formerly (very) safe seat. The Tories appear to be in danger of leaking seats in several different directions at the next general election. There are clearly lessons to be learned and things the party can do to turn this around. The problem is the Tories don’t have any solutions at the moment. There are some who are saying that these

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The plan to keep Boris in No. 10

What now for Boris Johnson? He’s lost two by-elections and a cabinet minister before breakfast, and isn’t even in the country. His response from the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Rwanda was that he would keep going, saying:  I’ve got to listen to what people are saying, in particular to the difficulties people are facing over the cost of living, which is I think for most people the number one issue. I understand that the No. 10 plan to move on from these results had been to push up talk of an early general election in the autumn of this year. The Prime Minister had certainly been giving those

Oliver Dowden

‘We cannot carry on with business as usual’: why I’m resigning as Tory chairman

Below is Oliver Dowden’s letter to Boris Johnson, explaining why he is resigning as chairman of the Conservative party, following this week’s two by-election losses.  It is with great sadness that I must resign as Chairman of the Conservative Party with immediate effect. Yesterday’s Parliamentary by-elections are the latest in a run of very poor results for our party. Our supporters are distressed and disappointed by recent events, and I share their feelings. We cannot carry on with business as usual. Somebody must take responsibility and I have concluded that, in these circumstances, it would not be right for me to remain in office. It has been an honour to

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Why Oliver Dowden’s resignation matters

Boris Johnson has been clear that he will not resign in the face of by-election losses. But his party chairman just has done, saying someone needs to take responsibility for losses in both and Tiverton & Honiton. Tory chairman Oliver Dowden announced he is quitting as ‘we cannot carry on with business as usual’. In his resignation letter, he says ‘our supporters are distressed and disappointed by recent events and I share their feelings’. Dowden does not offer an endorsement of the Prime Minister – instead saying he remains loyal to the Conservative party. No Tory MPs really believe a lack of organisation is the key factor in these two

Katy Balls Katy Balls

The by-elections are a disaster for Boris

Boris Johnson is suffering a further blow to his leadership this morning after the Conservatives lost two by-elections overnight. Labour took Wakefield from the Tories by 4,925 votes – a swing of 12.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats managed to overturn a Tory majority of 24,239 in Tiverton and Honiton – beating the Conservatives by 6,144 votes, with a swing of nearly 30 per cent. Tory MPs with seats where the Lib Dems are the second largest party will be particularly nervous The opposition leaders have been quick to herald their successes. Labour’s Keir Starmer has said the result is ‘a clear judgement’ on the Tory government while Liberal

Thursday

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

Can the government prevent a ‘bummer summer’?

10 min listen

Today, British Airways staff have voted have a strike of their own, adding to the government’s woes as rail workers continue to strike throughout this week. On the podcast, James Forsyth adopts a term from the Americans and asks: can the government prevent a ‘bummer summer’, where nothing quite works? Cindy Yu also talks to Katy Balls, who gives the low down on the risks the Prime Minister is taking on with his eight days foreign trip at a time of two by-elections back home. Produced by Cindy Yu.

Steerpike Steerpike

Whitehall exodus follows Rees-Mogg’s decree

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s war on Whitehall continues apace. The Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency has embraced his new role with relish, firing off notes to officials refusing to return to the office and launching his new ‘EU law dashboard’. But it’s his intention to trim the size of the state which has caused most upset among the Sir Humphreys of SW1, with Rees-Mogg pledging to cut the civil service headcount back to where it was before the pandemic. That would mean 91,000 job cuts: a figure that was briefed to the Daily Mail, which splashed on the story on Friday 13 May. This announcement, via the media, angered many

Steerpike Steerpike

Labour mayor’s eco-hypocrisy press row

To Bristol, the right-on Remain capital of liberal Britain. The local Labour mayor Marvin Rees has been having a bit of a bad time recently. Elected in 2016, his constituents think he’s done such a good job that they, er, voted to abolish the mayoralty in a referendum last month. Awkward. Since then, Rees has made national headlines for the first time in his life after flying 9,000 miles to Canada to deliver a 14-minute speech on cutting carbon emissions. The irony of such folly appears to have been lost on Rees, whose team don’t take too kindly when the mayor’s eco-hypocrisy is pointed out. A perfect example of this

Lara Prendergast Lara Prendergast

Putin’s billions

35 min listen

In this week’s episode: Are Russian sanctions backfiring?The Spectator’s economics editor, Kate Andrews and Elisabeth Braw from American Enterprise Institute discuss why sanctions against Russia may be playing into Putin’s hands. (0.57)Also this week:Does Carrie Johnson get a hard time from the British public? Spectator columnist, Matthew Parris talks with the Daily Mail columnist about the role of a Prime Minister’s wife and why they are given such a bad time. (13.56)And finally:What’s so special about our cars?Juliet Nicolson & Tanya Gold, a Spectator contributor chat about their shared love for cars. (24.06)Hosted by Lara Prendergast & William MooreProduced by Natasha Feroze Subscribe to The Spectator today and get a

Julian Jessop

Of course we can afford to cut taxes

The latest data on the UK’s public finances have provided more ammunition for those arguing that the government cannot afford to cut taxes. However, the economic reality is far more nuanced – especially when it comes to interest payments. The bad news is that the government borrowed another £14 billion in May, £3.7 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This reflected both lower-than-expected tax receipts, despite the increase in National Insurance contributions, and higher spending, including £7.6 billion in debt interest costs. This means that the government has already borrowed £35.9 billion in the first two months of the new fiscal year, or £6.4 billion

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

MPs should watch Rees-Mogg’s EU law dashboard closely

Jacob Rees-Mogg this week unveiled something that has variously been mocked as either a ‘vanity project’ or the Johnson administration’s equivalent of the Major government’s Cones Hotline. The Cones Hotline was a policy designed to tackle the great social evil of traffic cones loitering without intent – and became emblematic of that government’s tiredness and lack of proper ideas.  The Brexit Opportunities Minister has come up with a ‘retained EU law dashboard’, which he told MPs yesterday was ‘of both political – and in my view – historic constitutional importance’. The dashboard allows the public to see which out of more than 2,400 pieces of EU legislation have been kept

Steven Barrett

Raab’s Bill of Rights unpicks Blair’s messy reforms

For years, the Human Rights Act has cast a shadow over British politics. Its supporters claim, in the absence of a single written document in Britain’s constitution, that it upholds key freedoms; its detractors say it has been misused and hands too much power to the courts over elected politicians. Soon, this debate may be over: Dominic Raab’s Bill of Rights kills off the Human Rights Act. ‘The Human Rights Act 1998 is repealed,’ paragraph 2 of Schedule 5, of the Act says. Under the old Human Rights system, the courts were allowed to ‘interpret’ any Act of Parliament ‘in line’ with Human Rights legislation. That was always a conceptual