Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Kate Andrews

America’s surprisingly disappointing GDP growth

America’s economy has officially recovered to its pre-pandemic levels, as Q2 GDP figures saw an annualised increase of 6.5 per cent. This is a positive update, on the face of it, but that’s more or less where the good news stops. The country’s GDP figures have come in notably below the consensus of what was expected, which was something closer to 8.5 per cent.  The news comes just a day after the International Monetary Fund forecast the United States and the UK would lead advanced countries with their rate of economic recovery, revising its estimates for the States upwards to 7.0 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent next

James Forsyth

The problem with not vaccinating teenagers

In the last week, the number of people testing positive for Covid has dropped by 36 percent. A fall in cases following the final stage of unlocking was not what most models had predicted. There are several possible causes for this, including people adjusting their behaviour to avoid being pinged. But one significant factor is that schools in England are now out for summer. When schools do return in September, cases will likely rise. But with an ever-greater percentage of the population vaccinated, this shouldn’t cause too many problems. And the end of classroom bubbles means that whole classes will no longer be sent home just because one pupil tests positive.

Lara Prendergast

Turning the tide: how to deal with Britain’s new migrant crisis

40 min listen

Is there a humane solution to Britain’s migrant crisis?(00:52) Also on the podcast: Why is the WHO so down on e-cigarettes?(16:23) and finally… after a year and a half inside how angry will strangers make us?(27:01) With Douglas Murray; award winning film maker and producer for the Trojan Women project Charlotte Eagar; Christopher Snowdon; Clive Bates the director of The Counterfactual and previous head of ASH; Damian Thompson; and Stuart Prebble creator of the hit TV show Grumpy Old Men. Presented by Lara Prendergast Produced by Sam Holmes

Steerpike

How green is Labour’s environment spokesman?

It’s the issue facing all MPs this recess: what do you do for your summer hols? It’s not just Covid causing confusion this year, with approved travel lists going from green to amber at a moment’s notice – there’s also the environmental question to consider. Some MPs are reluctant to cast aspersions on their eco-credentials by jet-setting abroad at a time when constituent homes remain flooded, in this, the year of COP26, when Net Zero (and its associate costs) are all the rage. Indeed for Labour MP Luke Pollard, the floods have served as a ‘wake up call’. The shadow environment secretary has been everywhere this week, furiously firing off quotes proclaiming the

Kate Andrews

Vaccine passports could threaten the employment recovery

Alongside the UK’s latest step in reopening, optimistic forecasts have been rolling in concerning the economy’s timeline for returning to pre-pandemic levels. This morning, we got another positive indication that businesses are resuming normal operations. The latest update on furlough figures shows 1.9 million workers are still on the scheme as of the end of June — the lowest level of people having their wages paid by the state since furlough was first introduced during last year’s spring lockdown. The number of people on the scheme fell by half a million last month, and by roughly three million since March. The continued fall is hardly surprising, as each month since

James Forsyth

Should Britain be vaccinating teenagers?

Last week there was acute concern in government about the country’s re-opening. Would restrictions need to be reimposed when schools return in September? Ministers fretted. But those nerves have now been replaced by cautious optimism. Case numbers have been falling for a week straight and it increasingly looks as if this wave has peaked. No one in Downing Street wants to declare mission accomplished. What will happen to the numbers when people’s fear of being ‘pinged’ by Test and Trace eases and they start to socialise more? Cases need to be falling consistently between now and schools returning. Privately, scientists are stressing risks remain. They warn that there is still

Steerpike

Floods force Labour reconciliation

The morass of flooding politics have claimed a fair few scalps over the years. Those with long memories will recall the struggles of former Culture Secretary Chris Smith, whose lacklustre tenure as chair of the Environment Agency was ended ignominiously back in 2014 after flooding in Devon, Cornwall and the Somerset Levels. Now Labour is having to grapple once more with this issue, with a number of constituencies affected by Sunday’s floods being held by the party’s leading lights. Stella Creasy has been vocal in Walthamstow while Sam Tarry cited the floods as his reason to (belatedly) drop out of the online launch of the controversial Redbridge Palestinian Solidarity Campaign last night.  Sir Keir Starmer has meanwhile

Stephen Daisley

Can Cole-Hamilton prevent the death of the Scottish Lib Dems?

As expected, Alex Cole-Hamilton has put himself forward to lead the Scottish Lib Dems, announcing his candidacy with an obligatory walking-and-talking video introducing himself to party members. It’s unclear whether anyone else will stand before the August 20 nominations deadline and it could well be that Cole-Hamilton wins by default. The rules certainly favour that outcome, with only Members of the Scottish Parliament allowed to stand, and the party having only four of those. Cole-Hamilton represents a generational shift from outgoing leader Willie Rennie, an old-fashioned social democrat at a loss to keep up with — or, frankly, understand — the lively array of identity-centric grievances threatening to replace liberalism

Steerpike

Are MPs safe against a hack attack?

It’s parliamentary recess at present but the work doesn’t stop for MPs. Post bags and inboxes remain piled high, with our long-suffering legislators forced to slog through a backlog of Covid-related constituent issues. Still, the stresses of the job are even greater for those five Tory MPs who have been sanctioned by the Chinese state. Tom Tugendhat, Neil O’Brien, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Nusrat Ghani and Tim Loughton were among a group of nine UK citizens to face sanctions in March for raising awareness of human rights abuses. The latter three are all members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) – a group of more than 200 legislators around the

How Boris can save Northern Ireland

Over the past few weeks and months, there has been plenty of focus on the Northern Ireland Brexit Protocol, and the impact it is having on the province. Less attention has been paid, however, to the equally serious problems in Northern Ireland which still need to be solved. It is an uncomfortable truth, but the problem with Northern Ireland is largely in Westminster. The institutionalised neglect over the past few decades has brought the region to where it is now. How do you know Northern Ireland has been neglected? Easy. Look up the time it takes to travel between just about any town in the province to Belfast by public transport.

It’s time to upgrade the office of the Welsh first minister

Some of the most revealing detail from newly released 1997 government files relate to Welsh constitutional affairs. The Home Office advised against the Queen opening the new Welsh Assembly, for instance, judging the institution to be ‘wholly subordinate’ to Westminster even before the people of Wales had voted for it. Tony Blair and John Prescott even thought the leader of the Assembly should be known as ‘Chief Executive’, unlike the ‘First Minister’ title bestowed in Scotland. It has taken more than two decades, but attitudes to Welsh politics have finally changed, from both the public and politicians in Wales and Westminster. The Assembly-cum-Parliament now has primary law-making powers; our national

Why the SNP fraud allegations matter

A common refrain from opponents of the Scottish National party is that ‘the SNP is not Scotland’. But it often seems they haven’t got the message, especially when Nationalist activists take it on themselves to stand guard on the border against the plague-ridden English. This week, the people who may really wish they’d done more to police the borders between themselves and the SNP are none other than grassroots separatists in the ‘Yes movement’. If you missed this story, the long and short of it is that a few years ago the SNP went on a fundraising drive. They secured hundreds of thousands of pounds in donations on the basis

Freddy Gray

Who is Ron Klain and is he running America?

21 min listen

President Biden’s chief of staff, Ron Klain, is set to have a large bash for his 60th with a whopping guest list of the rich and powerful, a list he has been compiling since the Clinton administration. But who is the real Ron? A man helping an elderly president or king of the Washington Swamp? Freddy Gray in conversation with Matthew Continetti, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and founding editor of the Washington Free Beacon.

Kate Andrews

Whitehall’s Covid gloom could harm our economic recovery

As the government continues to put forward an extremely cautious narrative about re-opening, more evidence emerged today that the economy is surging ahead. The International Monetary Fund has once again upgraded its forecast for Britain’s growth this year: its April prediction of 5.3 per cent growth in 2021 has now been revised upward to 7 per cent. If correct, the UK could boast one of the fastest growing economies amongst major countries, with a recovery looking to be on par with the United States. Today’s update from the IMF fits a trend. Just this weekend the EY Item Club forecast 7.6 per cent growth this year – the fastest rate

Katy Balls

Why the Tories are losing support

Boris Johnson hoped to mark his two year anniversary with a series of big domestic policy announcements as part of his plans for the post-Covid recovery. Instead, the Prime Minister had to spend it in self-isolation on a weekend in which a series of polls pointed to a dip in support for his government.  The most striking was a YouGov poll on Friday that suggested the Tory lead had fallen by six points to 38 per cent of the vote: Since then, a series of other polls have emerged that also seem to point to a narrowing of the poll gap between the Tories and Labour, with Survation finding support for Labour

Nick Tyrone

Why is Vince Cable so liberal towards Chinese illiberalism?

On Monday, Vince Cable appeared on Nigel Farage’s ‘talking pints’ segment on GB News. This, if you haven’t seen it, is where Farage places a guest in front of a pint of beer while having his own and the two figures talk politics for a quarter of an hour. Really, it’s like any other political segment on a British news channel, only with Farage and alcohol involved. It started off well for Vince. Farage asked him about the coalition, and unlike most Lib Dem politicians who would have unveiled a litany of apologies for that government having ever come into existence, Cable staunchly defended it. ‘As a government, it worked

Steerpike

Five experts who predicted daily Covid cases would hit 100,000

A lot was said and written about the UK’s decision to press ahead with July 19, the so-called ‘Freedom Day’ when restrictions on social contact were lifted. Some greeted this date with a mix of horror, outrage and fury with 1,200 scientists signing a letter which effectively declared the unlocking as ‘a threat to the world.’ Much of the commentary focused on claims that there would be 100,000 positive Covid tests a day by July 19 and that a mass unlocking would only increase this. The full effect of the unlocking will only be seen in the fortnight after July 19 and the possibility remains that case numbers will go back up again – as