Society

Niall Ferguson’s diary: Brazil is overtaking us – but it no longer feels like that

 São Paolo It was back in 2001 that my good friend Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs coined the acronym ‘Bric’, short for Brazil, Russia, India, China. These were the emerging markets that were going to surpass the developed economies. And so they have. Well, nearly. I, too, am partial to a good acronym and it has always seemed to me very unfortunate that there isn’t a matching one for the four biggest established economies. According to the International Monetary Fund, these are currently the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom (based on last year’s GDP figures). I therefore propose ‘Juugs’. The rise of the Brics and the fall

Stop bribing Ukraine – and start helping

The last time Viktor Yanukovych was removed from power in Ukraine, following a corrupt election nearly a decade ago, it was called the Orange Revolution. This time around it should be called the Golden Revolution. Never has an episode of political upheaval been followed quite so sharply by offers of riches from abroad. The past few days have resembled one of those charity auctions where high-net-worth individuals, tanked up after a good dinner, whip out their chequebooks and try to outdo each other’s generosity. The only differences are that in this case it is our money that they are brandishing, and that instead of going to a children’s hospital or

The great art of country houses is still getting better

Last year 114,000 people flocked to Houghton Hall in north Norfolk for a once-in-a lifetime opportunity. Part of the great collection of paintings sold by the Walpole family in 1779 to Catherine the Great of Russia was back, thanks to a generous loan from the Hermitage. It was an un-usual triumph — a blockbuster exhibition in a private house rather than an art gallery. Most art before that last century was made to be seen in houses or churches. ‘Houghton Revisited’ was a compelling reminder that it looks best in those settings. Since art in our country houses hits the headlines only when it’s sold or stolen, it’s often assumed that

The night that saved England

Thanks to the centenary of the first world war, counter-factuals are much in vogue. How different might history have been had Archduke Franz-Ferdinand never been assassinated, had Britain kept out of the conflict, had the Allies been defeated? Questions such as these are more than just a parlour game. They serve to cast the shadow of contingency over events that otherwise can seem all too predetermined. Deep and strong though the tides of history are, there have indeed been moments in the past when their flood-surge might have been diverted along profoundly different courses — moments when the fate of nations did truly hang in the balance. The protagonists of one

From Caligula to Yanukovych

Tyrants never learn, do they? From Caligula through Gadaffi to the ex-Ukrainian prime minister Viktor Yanukovych, they rule not to serve the people but themselves — and all in virtually identical ways. The emperor Tiberius populated Capri with palaces and grottos where lovers entwined themselves for the pleasure of his guests, like Yanukovych’s gardens dotted with love-seats and colonnades. Caligula had built a vast barge in the form of a floating palace on a lake, complete with marble, mosaics, and a hot and cold bath system; Yanukovych had a floating restaurant designed as a galleon. When Rome burned down in ad 64, Nero collared the grounds in the centre to construct

Watching car crash compliations with my grandson

My boy was downstairs cooking Sunday roast. Earlier, I had been clambering about on a woodpile, stepped awkwardly, and twisted my knee. So I was upstairs lying on my bed stinking of Deep Heat. Then my grandson appeared in the doorway to report that lunch would be ready in an hour. I held out my arms to him. The lad dutifully removed his shoes and came and lay next to me. I cuddled him passionately until he’d had enough of it, then I reached for the iPad and asked him what he would like to watch on YouTube. ‘Car crashes,’ he said. Apart from making Batman attack vehicles out of

Bridge | 27 February 2014

To any player with even the smallest sadistic streak, squeezing your opponents is hugely satisfying. But there’s something even more enjoyable: pseudo-squeezing them. With a genuine squeeze, you make them squirm, but they can console themselves afterwards that there was nothing they could have done. That’s no fun. With a pseudo-squeeze, you get to see them squirm and kick themselves when they realise they’ve been duped. On this recent deal, the UK star Gopal Venkatesh was hoodwinked by Bulgaria’s Valio Kovachev: [*2♠ was a game try; 2NT a relay; 3♣ asked for help in clubs] Venkatesh (West) led the ♥9.  Even with the ♥K onside, Kovachev had only nine tricks:

Ukrainian knights

This week I pay tribute to the chess grandmasters from Ukraine, led by Vassily Ivanchuk, many times a candidate for the world championship. Ukraine occupies an honourable place in the history of chess, for example winning the gold medals in the chess Olympiad of 2010, held in one of the World Chess Federation’s favourite venues, Khanty-Mansisk in Siberia. Ivanchuk played an interesting role in last year’s world championship qualifier in London. Blessed with extraordinary creativity, yet almost equally erratic, Ivanchuk seemed headed for a disaster, based on his ability to lose on time in promising positions. Nevertheless, he played a pivotal role in deciding who should challenge Viswanathan Anand for

No. 303

White to play. This position is from Moiseenko-Noah, Khanty-Mansisk Olympiad 2010. Even though the game is not yet out of the opening, Black has already blundered. What did White now play? Answers to me at The Spectator by Tuesday 4 March or via email to victoria@spectator.co.uk or by fax on 020 7681 3773. The winner will be the first correct answer out of a hat, and each week I shall be offering a prize of £20. Please include a postal address and allow six weeks for prize delivery.   Last week’s solution 1 Nxf6 Last week’s winner James O’Fee, Bangor, Northern Ireland

Why does everything suddenly need ‘resilience’?

They were talking on the wireless about Brazilians in the flooded areas, or so I thought. Once the kettle had finished boiling, it turned out that they wanted resilience in new houses in floody places. That meant fitting electrical sockets above waist height and not using plasterboard downstairs — things they have been doing in Venice for years. Schoolchildren should have resilience too, according to the MP Tristram Hunt, who, I always have to remind myself, sits on the Labour benches. ‘The teaching of resilience and self-control and character is more and more important,’ he said a couple of weeks ago. You can’t have too much of it these days.

Portrait of the week | 27 February 2014

Home Moazzam Begg, a former Guantanamo detainee who won substantial compensation after suing the British government, was arrested in Birmingham on suspicion of terrorism offences relating to Syria. John Downey, accused of killing four soldiers in the IRA Hyde Park bombing in 1982, will not be prosecuted, because he was given, in error, a guarantee he would not face trial; an Old Bailey judge ruled it was in the public interest to make state officials keep their promises. Harriet Harman, the deputy leader of the opposition, said she had ‘regrets’ that the Paedophile Information Exchange continued to be affiliated to the National Council for Civil Liberties during her time as

2151: Sources

Three theme words which must be deduced each suggest three unclued lights (including one of two words and ignoring one definite article). The word which connects the three theme words must be highlighted in the completed grid. Unchecked and cross-checking letters in all unclued lights could spell: KOREANS CAN SOON LEARN.   Across   1    Sadly embracing such silly sweethearts (8) 8    Bit of door said to stick (4) 11    Refined orgy’s rendered with Homeric adjective (12, hyphened) 14    Cut segment of mollusc is sore (7) 17    Bone a northern Parisian’s read about (4) 18    Speed ingested by extremely naughty old slapper (6) 22    Publish English Scriptures (8) 23    They

to 2148: Eighth of February

Unclued lights can each be abbreviated so that together they give the letters of FEBRUARY: FAHRENHEIT (19), EARTH (32), BASS (35), RÖNTGEN UNIT (41), UNIVERSITY (1D), ATOMIC WEIGHT (4), RECTOR (12) and YEN (7A). First prize Hilda Ball, Belfast Runners-up Roderick Rhodes, Goldsborough, N. Yorks;B. Taylor, Little Lever, Bolton

Alex Massie

Standard Life becomes the latest firm to bully Scotland. But is it bluffing?

No-one should be surprised that Standard Life has warned it might leave Scotland should the country vote for independence later this year. It is not exactly a secret that Edinburgh’s financial services industry is concerned by the possible – indeed plausible – implications of independence. The suggestion – sorry, the threat – that it might leave Scotland is already being characterised by nationalists as yet more bullying, this time of the corporate rather than political kind. No doubt this is a blustering bluff too.  But what if it isn’t? The sorry truth is that Edinburgh’s financial sector is not quite what once it was. The Bank of Scotland is a small part of the

Mary Wakefield

Would you screen for the ‘gay’ gene?

How would you feel about a couple doing IVF just in order to find the embryos most likely to to be gay… and chuck them out? Does that sound like eugenics to you? What about the other way round: what if a gay couple wanted to maximise their chance of a having gay baby — would you let them screen for and select embryos with the genes that made it more likely they were gay? Then bin the rest? It’s time to make your mind up because after decades of panic about ‘designer babies’ (remember Gattaca?) the future is finally here. On the one hand, as I write in the

Nature belongs at the heart of school life

History, Edmund Burke wrote, is ‘a pact between the dead, the living and the yet unborn.’ Nowhere is this pact more important than in our relationship with nature. Conservative governments have always sought to protect and enhance the natural environment – whether through Disraeli’s Public Health Act, which sought to limit the environmental impact of the industrial revolution; or Eden’s Clean Air Act, which helped lift the London smog.  We shouldn’t forget it was Margaret Thatcher’s drive to cut sulphur emissions that stopped the acid rain which was damaging our woodlands and killing the fish in our lakes and rivers. It’s not just a safe and secure environment we are

Camilla Swift

Podcast: Cameron’s Northern Alliance, Christianity and the left, and the end of two-party politics

Is David Cameron’s new gameplan to look to the northern states for allies? Fraser Nelson is joined on the podcast by Stephen Booth of Open Europe, to discuss the influence that people such as the Dutch PM Mark Rutte – who has a clear and impressive reform plan – and Angela Merkel are having on our PM. Could Cameron really be serious about making Britain an honorary member of Scandinavia? And could this strategy really be enough to pull him through the next election? Ed West and Andrew Brown of The Guardian also discuss the church’s left-wing bias. Ed has written frequently about this issue in the Catholic church. But is this, in fact, an