Comes from that wise bird, Tyler Cowen: 11. If someone is pushing conclusions and not identifying the potential weak points in his or her arguments, be suspicious. Also beware of anyone pretending to offer you simple answers. He’s referring to the current finanical crisis, but of course this is broadly true of any public policy question.
Ben Brogan suspects the financial crisis is an advantage for Gordon Brown. Perhaps it is. In the short-term. Make that in the very short-term. But in the medium to long-term it’s another millstone dragging him to the bottom. Danny Finkelstein is, I believe, correct: This election will not be fought in the middle of a crisis. It will be fought in the depressed aftermath that results from the crisis. The politics of these two moments are quite different. In a crisis people will be small ‘c’ conservatives, clinging to experience. They fear losing what they have got. But the literature on loss aversion suggests that in the depressed aftermath, when
The financial crisis might be giving Gordon Brown a temporary boost but when you consider the issues the next election is likely to be fought on you see that Cameron has quite a distinct advantage. By the time of the next election, the economy will be—or will have been—in recession, shining a light on Brown’s actual economic record and making it harder for him to claim that all the trouble has come from America. Huge amounts will still have been spent on public services without the desired results and the problems of a broken society will, sadly, still be with us. This is not where the Tory advantage ends. As
The continuing inability of any politician to seize the moment produced by this financial crisis continues. David Cameron’s speech today was fine—well crafted and delivered with just the right amount of passion—but an opportunity to demonstrate his command of the economic question was missed. It was always going to be impossible for Cameron to top the drama of last year’s effort and he was sensible not to try. The section on his personal values was strong and a reminder of how good he is going to be on the campaign trail during the general election. His remarks on the NHS conveyed the right amount of anger and passion. While his
These are not the circumstances that David Cameron would have wanted or expected to deliver his conference speech in. But today does provide him with an opportunity to show the electorate that he is ready to lead in these economically challenging times. Up to now, talking about the economy has not been Cameron’s strong point. For a PPE graduate and former Treasury special advisor he sounds oddly hesitant on the subject. (Perhaps this is why he turned down the shadow chancellorship when Michael Howard offered it to him after the 2005 election defeat). But Cameron must now show that he can do it, as the economy is going to be
Martin Wolf’s column in the FT this morning well-worth reading, one statistic in it really does bring home the problem of over-leveraging: “the gross liabilities of the US financial sector have soared from just 21 per cent of gross domestic product in 1980 to 116 per cent in 2007.”
The Senate is expected to vote on a mildly revised version of the bailout proposal sometime today. The bill will include tax breaks for both businesses and people designed to help the bill garner more support in the House when it returns there. With both Obama and McCain backing the bill as well as the leaderships of both parties, the plan should pass the Senate comfortably.
The US Treasury chief sees his interventionism as a case-by-case response to unprecedented events, says James Doran, but his critics see it as inconsistent, dangerous and ‘un-American’ It’s hard to keep up with Hank Paulson, the grim-faced US Treasury Secretary and would-be architect of a new financial order. Over the past eight months, since the collapse of the investment bank Bear Stearns, Paulson has been confronted with an escalating crisis that has engulfed Wall Street, plunged markets into chaos, and threatened to push the global economy into deep recession. And at each milestone on the road to ruin, Paulson — Hermes-like — has presented a different face. When he accepted
Swearing and shouting are underrated, says Giles Coren. Four-letter words can be immensely satisfying and extraordinarily effective When I was ever so small and sweet, romper-suited and frilly-booted and really quite an angel to look at, I must have had a gob on me like an angry plasterer, because the only piece of advice I can remember my mother ever giving me is: ‘If you’ve got nothing nice to say, Giles, then keep your mouth shut.’ This was most often said at table, I think, when I was passing comment on the ickiness of the boil-in-the-bag cod mornay or the pooey colour of the butterscotch Angel Delight, perhaps on the
The Medjugorje story begins early in 1976 when a Franciscan monk in the former Yugoslavia, Father Tomislav Vlasic, starts an affair with a nun who becomes pregnant. Frightened he will be exposed as the child’s father, Father Vlasic persuades her to move away to Germany. She hopes he will honour his promise to leave the ministry and marry her. She writes a sequence of increasingly anxious letters when this does not happen, telling her former lover she is so miserable that she is praying she will die in childbirth. But he piously orders her to ‘be like Mary’ and accept her destiny in a foreign land — and never to
La Calisto Royal Opera House Tosca Opera North, Leeds It’s not often that you find the Royal Opera going as far back as the 17th century, no doubt for the good reason that operas written then are not suitable for performance in such large houses. That hasn’t daunted the director David Alden, who, together with his set designer Paul Steinberg, has located the action of Cavalli’s La Calisto in a grand hotel, with gods behaving badly in 1920s clothing. The era of the grand Art Deco hotel, with its atmosphere of illicit trysts and shady goings-on, is so potent that even when staying in a Travelodge I still have hopes
Churchill’s Wizards, by Nicholas Rankin Deception plays a large part in war, just as feinting plays a large part in sport. The British excel at it, and used it with much success in both the 20th century’s world wars, particularly in the second. That war’s conspiracy theorists are fond of suggesting even more deceptions than did in fact take place; luckily, there are now two sound history books by which they can be confuted. If a wartime deception is not mentioned either in Michael Howard’s Strategic Deception of 1990 or in Thaddeus Holt’s The Deceivers of 2004, it is hardly likely that it happened: useful sticks with which to beat
Radley Balko is right. If this story isn’t the sort of cheery goodness you’ve been craving in these troubling, turbulent times then, well, what the hell’s wrong with you? It’s the sort of tale that restores your faith in the power of free enterprise and, frankly, the United States of America. To wit: State attorneys say John LaVoie should be forever barred from the massage business because he ran a house of prostitution camouflaged as a church. But in his latest court argument, the Tucson man says he hired women at Angel’s Heaven Relaxation Spa — near University Medical Center — not to sell sex but to comfort the afflicted
I really don’t know enough to tell whether it was a good thing that the bailout plan failed yesterday or not. Mebbes aye, mebbes naw as a great man was fond of putting it. But the absurdity of a dozen Republicans changing their votes because wee Nancy Pelosi was mean about their daddy can only confirm the public’s low opinion of Congress and, in the end, damage the Republican “brand” still further.
A crisis presents politicians with an opportunity. But no politician on either side of the Atlantic has seized the one presented by the current financial turbulence. Gordon Brown is benefitting not from anything he has said or done but because he is ‘experienced’ and voters think that because he was Chancellor he must know the way home from here. David Cameron and George Osborne have made the right noises and struck the right tone. But as opposition politicians they are limited in what they can do. They also have not been ahead of the curve on this. In the US, Bush’s leadership has been pitiful, Hank Paulson has been politically
Amid all the justified clamour about the global financial crisis, let us not forget that (for instance) children will still have to be educated. So do read Michael Gove’s fine speech on his plans for a Swedish-style schools revolution, expanding on the themes he discussed in Fraser’s interview last week. As one Cameroon put it to me: ‘We can’t let the end of the world distract us from saving the nation’.
Currently, the markets seem to be holding up as well as could be expected. At the time of writing: — FTSE is at +0.44 percent — Dow Jones has opened around 2 percent up. — Nasdaq is at +2.48 — Dax is at -1.17 Perhaps the most significant financial indicator of the day is that Libor – the rate at which banks lend to each other – has risen to an all-time high. In other words, it’s more expensive than ever for banks to borrow from each other – increasing the chances that more of them will need bailing out.
There is talk coming out of Washington that the Senate will pass the bailout bill and send it back to the House, almost daring it to vote it down again. Speaking this morning, President Bush made it clear that he’s going to keep pushing for a bill, and enough House members might have been scared by yesterday’s fall on the Dow to get this passed second-time out.
We’ll be providing market updates here on Coffee House and Trading Floor today, as the financial turmoil continues. So, just to recap: — The Dow Jones index closed at -6.98 percent yesterday evening. — Nasdaq closed at -9.14. — The Nikkei index closed this moring at -4.12 — Hang Seng closed at +0.76 And so far today: — After an early plummet, the FTSE is hovering around the 0 percent mark. It’s currently at +0.17 percent. — Dax is at -0.98 Today’s biggest loser so far has been HBOS – at time of writing, shares in that company are down around 10 percent. As Paul Waugh points out, that could be causing a few headaches
There are few events that can break through the conference bubble but the failure of the $700bn bailout has undoubtedly been one of them. Most worryingly, no one knows what happens next. In Washington, the bailout seems doomed. It was never politically popular to begin with and neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will want to cop the flak for passing it. It says something about President Bush’s lack of political authority these days that not only did House Republicans vote the bill down but only four of the Texas delegation voted for the bill. Indeed, politically it is hard to see what upside there is to voting for the