Society

Friday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories need a top-quality politician to shadow Ed Miliband

Gordon Brown’s decision to create a new department of Energy and Climate Change and place one of his most talented protégés in charge of it is a sign that Labour plan to make a major push on the issue. This should worry the Tories. Tory energy policy is far too woolly at the moment; the party has still has not decided where it stands on nuclear power. Alan Duncan, for all his energy expertise, has not provided the intellectual leadership that the Tories desperately need on the issue. There will be a temptation for the Tories just to move up one of the shadow DEFRA or BERR team into this

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Does Gordon Brown remember the fable of the Scorpion and the Frog?

Just in case he doesn’t, here is a reminder for him: “Hellooo Mr. Frog!” called the scorpion across the water, “Would you be so kind as to give me a ride on your back across the river?” “Well now, Mr. Scorpion! How do I know that if I try to help you, you wont try to kill me?” asked the frog hesitantly. “Because,” the scorpion replied, “If I try to kill you, then I would die too, for you see I cannot swim!” Now this seemed to make sense to the frog. But he asked. “What about when I get close to the bank? You could still try to kill

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The return of Mandelson shows that Brown knows just how deep a hole he is in

Well, who thought that Brown had it in him? The return of Peter Mandelson to the Cabinet is the kind of bold move that Brown has seemed incapable of making since becoming Prime Minister. It, along with the apparent departure of Damian McBride, sends out a message that Brown is going to try and rise above Labour factionalism. The appointment of Nick Brown as Chief Whip looks very different when seen through this prism.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Palin makes it through the night

The insta-polls are scoring the VP debate to Joe Biden but theMcCain campaign will be mighty relieved that Palin got through the evening without making any major gaffes. The question now is can Palin proceed to regain control of her public initiative and get back to being an asset for the Republican ticket.

Thursday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Couric vs Palin

The slow drip torture is, as you would expect it to be, agonising. But here’s the latest from Katie Couric’s destruction of poor Sarah Palin. You can see why CBS kept these juicy bits back, but, christ, it’s painful to read*, let alone watch. COURIC: What other Supreme Court decisions [than Roe v. Wade] do you disagree with? PALIN: Well, let’s see. There’s –of course –in the great history of America rulings there have been rulings, that’s never going to be absolute consensus by every American. And there are–those issues, again, like Roe v Wade where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So you

Alex Massie Alex Massie

UN Report Makes Sense: Can it Actually Exist?

Well, this is common-sense. So, obviously, don’t expect it to have an impact. A report on cannabis prepared for next year’s UN drug policy review will suggest that a “regulated market” would cause less harm than the current international prohibition. The report, which is likely to reopen the debate about cannabis laws, suggests that controls such as taxation, minimum age requirements and labelling could be explored. The Global Cannabis Commission report, which will be launched today at a conference in the House of Lords, has reached conclusions which its authors suggest “challenge the received wisdom concerning cannabis”. It was carried out for the Beckley foundation, a UN-accredited NGO, for the

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Biden vs Palin: The Debate for Which the World is Not Yet Prepared…

You know what anticipation breeds, campers? That’s right, disappointment. Steel yourselves for a let-down. It’s almost inconceivable that tonight’s Brouhaha in Missourah can meet expectations. We’re not expecting a “debate” are we? We want a WWF show. Or, as the Politico boys put it: With all their potential for pitfalls and insta-classic moments, the pair has made the build up to the showdown, to take place here Thursday night at Washington University, feel more like a NASCAR race than a serious political forum: the audience may be tuning in as much in anticipation of cringe-inducing pile-ups as they are to watch the typical parry-and-thrust of debate. Expect Dullsville then. Which

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If Palin chokes tonight the presidential race could be over

There are signs that the presidential race is on the verge of tipping decisively Obama’s way. A string of polls in battleground states have shown Obama moving into strong leads and even those swing states like Missouri and Florida that were leaning McCain are now going Obama’s way. In a sign of the McCain’s campaign difficulty, McCain is reportedly pulling out of Michigan—long regarded as his best chance for flipping a large, normally Democratic state—which would seriously limit his options for getting to 270 Electoral College votes. One of the reasons that the McCain campaign is in such trouble is Sarah Palin. She has gone from being an asset to

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Reshuffle rumours | 2 October 2008

The financial crisis has rather got Brown out of his reshuffle hole. The word in Westminster is that there will be a relatively minor reshuffle tomorrow. To my mind, the most interesting question is who will Brown make Chief Whip? That choice will give us a good idea of how secure Brown thinks his position is and how he intends to handle the rebels, who haven’t gone away but are just biding their time. Anyway, here’s a little list of the speculation that’s out there: John Hutton to move from BERR (Telegraph) Hillary Benn to go from DEFRA (Boulton and Co) Tony McNulty to Chief Whip (The Sun) There’s a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron shouldn’t be so complacent about the quality of his top team

The Telegraph is reporting that David Cameron won’t reshuffle the shadow cabinet. This is a mistake. There’s some dead wood in the shadow cabinet that needs chopping out – last year The Spectator revealed that Cameron only thought 10 of its members were up to being ministers – some apparent conflicts of interest that need resolving and some talent that needs including. Cameron should start by telling his top team that the level of scrutiny on them is going to be turned up in the coming months so any second jobs that could in anyway be seen to overlap with their responsibilities must go. Anyone who isn’t prepared to comply with

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Glowing press coverage for Cameron’s speech

Team Cameron will be beaming about the press coverage that the  speech has garnered. The Sun pretty much endorses Cameron in a leader entitled ‘He’s ready.’ It offers him The Sun’s highest praise, declaring that his “speech could have been lifted straight from a Sun editorial.” The Mail is not quite as keen but does appear to be warming to Cameron.It concludes that “Mr Brown has an increasingly impressive rival for Number 10.” The traditionally conservative broadsheets, yes I know but there isn’t another word for them yet, give the speech a good review too. The Times writes that “His pitch for the top job was formidable enough that it

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Senate passes the bailout bill, the House expected to vote Friday

The revised Paulson plan passed the Senate by the comfortable margin of 74 to 25 with both Obama and McCain voting for it. Most people expect that the House will now OK it on Friday, the addition of various tax breaks and an increase in the Federal Deposit Insurance limit have made it more palatable to House Republicans who voted against it by a two-thirds margin on Monday.

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Quote for the Day | 1 October 2008

Comes from that wise bird, Tyler Cowen: 11. If someone is pushing conclusions and not identifying the potential weak points in his or her arguments, be suspicious.  Also beware of anyone pretending to offer you simple answers. He’s referring to the current finanical crisis, but of course this is broadly true of any public policy question.

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Change We Can Believe In?

Ben Brogan suspects the financial crisis is an advantage for Gordon Brown. Perhaps it is. In the short-term. Make that in the very short-term. But in the medium to long-term it’s another millstone dragging him to the bottom. Danny Finkelstein is, I believe, correct: This election will not be fought in the middle of a crisis. It will be fought in the depressed aftermath that results from the crisis. The politics of these two moments are quite different. In a crisis people will be small ‘c’ conservatives, clinging to experience. They fear losing what they have got. But the literature on loss aversion suggests that in the depressed aftermath, when

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The fundamentals still favour Cameron

The financial crisis might be giving Gordon Brown a temporary boost but when you consider the issues the next election is likely to be fought on you see that Cameron has quite a distinct advantage. By the time of the next election, the economy will be—or will have been—in recession, shining a light on Brown’s actual economic record and making it harder for him to claim that all the trouble has come from America. Huge amounts will still have been spent on public services without the desired results and the problems of a broken society will, sadly, still be with us. This is not where the Tory advantage ends. As

James Forsyth James Forsyth

A good speech but not a decisive one

The continuing inability of any politician to seize the moment produced by this financial crisis continues. David Cameron’s speech today was fine—well crafted and delivered with just the right amount of passion—but an opportunity to demonstrate his command of the economic question was missed. It was always going to be impossible for Cameron to top the drama of last year’s effort and he was sensible not to try. The section on his personal values was strong and a reminder of how good he is going to be on the campaign trail during the general election. His remarks on the NHS conveyed the right amount of anger and passion. While his

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s chance

These are not the circumstances that David Cameron would have wanted or expected to deliver his conference speech in. But today does provide him with an opportunity to show the electorate that he is ready to lead in these economically challenging times. Up to now, talking about the economy has not been Cameron’s strong point. For a PPE graduate and former Treasury special advisor he sounds oddly hesitant on the subject. (Perhaps this is why he turned down the shadow chancellorship when Michael Howard offered it to him after the 2005 election defeat). But Cameron must now show that he can do it, as the economy is going to be

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Liabilities

Martin Wolf’s column in the FT this morning well-worth reading, one statistic in it really does bring home the problem of over-leveraging: “the gross liabilities of the US financial sector have soared from just 21 per cent of gross domestic product in 1980 to 116 per cent in 2007.”