Society

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Pre-Budget Report live blog

Welcome to Coffee House’s live blog of Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report speech.  Things will kick off at 15:30 and end at around 16:30.  We’ll be following it up with plenty of analysis.  Stay tuned. 15: 35 Brown is grinning away as the Tories barrack Darling for saying that the Americans admit this all started in America, a distortion of the quote–JGF 15: 40 Darling admits that ‘regulation needs to be made more effective’–JGF   15:42: The volumne level rsies as Darling, incredibly, claims that Britain is ‘well-placed’ to handle this crisis–JGF 15:43 Excellent to see Tories very noisy, shouting down Darlings more preposterous claims “living within our means,” “blame it

James Forsyth James Forsyth

After today, Brown is no longer the master of his fate

Brown has revelled in the economic crisis. A Prime Minister who was presumed to be a dead man walking found himself in a position where people had to listen to him. the combination of the severity of the situation and the institutional authority of his office revived him. Since September, Brown has played his cards masterfully. He has forced the Tories onto the back foot and is now in striking distance of them in the polls. But the PBR forces the government to fully lay out its plan for how it plans to get the country out of this mess. After today we won’t be waiting for hints of what

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tories step around the elephant trap Brown had set for them

The 45p gambit is all about politics not raising revenue. Brown knows jolly well that even on a static calculation it only raises two and a bit billion and in reality will bring in far less. However, Brown is hoping that the move will either lure the Tories into vocal opposition, allowing him to paint them as defenders of the privileged rich, or cause division in their ranks.  (The move, though, does only increase one’s annoyance that the Tories didn’t move to counter-act this by offering their own middle class tax cut over the summer.) Its shameless pre-leaking was also designed to distract attention from the far more significant tax

Helen Thomas

Will the splurge work?

We have become used to dealing in £billions since the onset of the banking crisis. With the economy facing such a dire economic outlook, there is a sense that many more £billions should be thrown at the problem – but the danger is that, in our desperation for a solution, we rush headlong into potentially more destabilising circumstances. The UK is in a particularly tricky situation, with the European Commission expecting our deficit to deteriorate to 6.5% in 2010 (the second highest borrowing forecast among the 27 member states), and the Financial Times reporting a probable rise in public borrowing to £120bn. This causes a problem with regard to credibility:

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 24 November – 30 November

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 24 November 2008

Here are some of the posts made over the weekend on Spectator.co.uk: Fraser Nelson says Gordon Brown is blasting out his false message, and surveys the prospects for Reykjavik on Thames. James Forsyth asks whether Brown’s political positioning on VAT is any good, and outlines the coming Tory attack on Brown. Peter Hoskin reports on a more encouraging opinion poll for the Tories, and suggests how Brown might spin himself as our Value Added Saviour. Daniel Korski outlines the real choices. Melanie Phillips gives her take on Broken Britain. Clive Davis asks whether Gordon Brown is right or wrong. And Americano backs Caroline Kennedy for London.

Peter Hoskin

Playing politics

An effective article by Bruce Anderson in today’s Independent on how Brown’s playing politics with the public finances.  Here’s a key passage: “[Brown] is happy to risk further damage to the economy as long as he can inflict damage on the Tories. The only recovery which interests him is the recovery in his poll ratings. Today’s measures are not economic. They are political. That is why they are based on a wrong diagnosis. In fact, the current ailments are not fiscal; they are monetary. Even before today’s increases, government borrowing was likely to break through the £100 bn barrier, so it would be absurd to claim that fiscal policy is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories mustn’t fall into Brown’s trap

The Tories will be desperately tempted to vigorously oppose the new 45p top rate for those earning more than £175,000. But this is just what Brown wants them to do–as Fraser pointed out this measure has far more to do with politics than raising revenue. Brown is hoping to create a situation in which the perception is that he is trying to save the economy while the Tories are just trying to protect their rich friends. Yes such a narrative is rubbish, but it could be politically potent. Falling that, Brown is trying to provoke a Tory split; hoping that Tory backbenchers will demand that the leadership oppose it at all

Sunday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Days of a Do Nothing Presidency, Alas, Are Gone

Gail Collins, short of an idea for a column this week, clutters-up the NYT op-ed page with the fanciful suggestion that George W Bush stand down now and let the cool new guy takeover. Well, fine. Whatever dreams tickle your fancy. Collins also drops this in, however: “Doing nothing is almost the worst thing a president can do,” said the historian Michael Beschloss. This is almost the worst advice you could give a President. Doing stuff is often the problem. One of the better things about Candidate Bush in 2000 was his apparently modest agenda. Of course, it didn’t work out that way. But with the exception, one might argue,

Alex Massie Alex Massie

A Protestant fish for a Protestant people?

I’ve had occasion to salute the glories of the Scottish fish and chip shop before – where else can you obtain a deep-fried kebab pizza? – but when it comes to naming chippies, I’m not sure there’s many that can beat this Belfast emporium: That’s right folks: For Cod and Ulster, where the King Billy’s Family Feast will only set you back £16.90 (of course!). In an ecumenical touch – in keeping with the patina of the times –  they do however serve a Gerry Adams burger.

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Who’s Not Coming to Dinner?

Christ, I’m glad I* don’t eat at the restaurants Thomas Friedman frequents: So, I have a confession and a suggestion. The confession: I go into restaurants these days, look around at the tables often still crowded with young people, and I have this urge to go from table to table and say: “You don’t know me, but I have to tell you that you shouldn’t be here. You should be saving your money. You should be home eating tuna fish. This financial crisis is so far from over. We are just at the end of the beginning. Please, wrap up that steak in a doggy bag and go home.” Of

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Hands off

There is a lot of waste and needles expenditure in Whitehall but it is, frankly, pathetic of Greg Hands to try and make a fuss about Hazel Blears having a couple of Spanish lessons before attending a summit in Spain or Peter Mandelson being taught how to use a Blackberry. The reputation of politicians is low-enough without MPs spending time and money on this kind of absurd gotcha exercise. Hands really should reflect before asking any more of this kind of question; they might get his name in the paper but what good do they serve? However, as Iain Dale notes, The Sunday Times story about Stephen Ladyman does not

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tactical success for the Tories as Brown boxes himself in on 2009 election

The PBR is being spun like a pre-election budget but today on the Politics Show today Brown came very close to closing the door on the prospect of a 2009 election. Here’s the key quote: “”I am not thinking about that at all. It is almost completely wrong even to consider this. Our undivided attention is on getting these problems sorted out.  I am not planning it at all. I do not think people would think much of me,” he said.” Brown has left himself a tiny bit of wiggle room but it is hard to see how Brown can now go to the country without raising questions about his

Peter Hoskin

A more encouraging poll result for the Tories

Opinion polls are varying so much at the moment that it’s probably futile to read too much into any one set of figures.  After the MORI poll last week, though, today’s ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror will please quite a few Tories, and fits back into what UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells calls the “broad sweep” of recent polls.  Here are the headline numbers: Conservatives — 42 percent (down 1 from last month) Labour — 31 percent (up 1) Lib Dem — 19 percent (up 1) As I wrote last week, it will be interesting to see how the poll numbers settle in the aftermath of the PBR.

Peter Hoskin

How Brown might spin himself as our Value Added Saviour

As James indicated earlier, the problem for Brown is that his VAT cut just won’t get noticed (and that the eventual rise in VAT – to 22.5 percent? – will be).  That’s why you can expect the rejuvenated Labour spin operation to work overtime trying to make it look like the measure’s curing all our economic ills.  How might they go about it?  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near repeat of Brown’s “working to lower oil prices” message from earlier this year.  Then, he chatted with some Saudi princes, made a big show of it, and – hey presto! – oil prices started to fall dramatically.  Of course,

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is Brown’s political positioning VAT good?

I’m unconvinced that a cut in the VAT rate will be that big a political winner for Labour. First VAT is a hidden tax, a lot of the time people don’t realise they are paying it as it is incorporated in the price. Second, sterling’s weakness means that imports are going to become more expensive regardless of this cut. The attraction for Brown, in purely partisan terms, is that it throws the Tories for a loop. Note how David Cameron couldn’t say whether he opposed or supported it on Marr this morning (his, reasonable, explanation was that he had to see the details of the scheme first). Labour will also

Saturday

Melissa Kite

Real life | 22 November 2008

The boots I have been looking for all my life turned up the other day. They were in a little shop round the corner from my house, which goes to show that what we are seeking is often right under our nose. I had not gone out looking. I had just popped into the shop to browse and there they were, standing casually by the door. Tan, knee high, a slight western feel, perfect in every way. Except for one. Why is it that when you find the thing your heart desires most it beckons to you with the allure of being meant for you then announces that it is

Jeremy Clarke

Low life | 22 November 2008

I have three friends whom I’ve kept up with since we sat together, aged five, in Mrs Asplin’s class at the local county primary school. After Mrs Asplin, we were taught by Mrs Dobson, then Mrs Asplin again, then Mr Seager, then Mrs Dobson again, then Mr Middleton and then Mr Farrell. These teachers were all kind except Mr Seager, who was Welsh and shouted at us and made us write out hymns. After that we were swallowed up by a huge, new and somewhat terrifying comprehensive school and in the second year I moved away from the area.  These friends have been easy to keep up with, however, because

Taki

High life | 22 November 2008

Arletty was a great French star of the silver screen during the Thirties and Forties, but she was also known for a few outspoken apophthegms about having sex with a German officer during the occupation. ‘If you hadn’t let them in, I wouldn’t have slept with him,’ and the better known, ‘My heart is French, but my arse is international.’ Like immortal ancient Greeks such as Socrates, Plato, Taki, Aristophanes and Pericles, Arletty used only one name, but fans knew her as ‘la môme de Courbevoie’, due to her childlike appearance at the start of her career. A new book out in France includes the love letters of Arletty and

Tamzin Lightwater

Diary of a Notting Hill Nobody | 22 November 2008

Monday Hooray! We are the party of spending cuts and proud of it — at last! It really was a stroke of genius by Dave to put Mr Letwin in charge of drawing them up because Mr Letwin is just about the cleverest economic brain we have, aside from Mr Redwood of course! He certainly won’t be going into hiding this time. Just as soon as he’s dusted off his £20 billion package from 2001 and tarted it up a bit we’ll be shouting it from the rooftops. And people say we haven’t changed! We’re constantly changing. If dumping our commitment to pretend to match Labour spending plans for a