Society

Wednesday

19 Nov 2008

The dangers of high spending

The Independent’s Hamish McRae – who’s been on the money more often than most commentators during this downturn – today outlines the reasons to be wary of a Government spending boom in the PBR. They’re worth quoting in full: “The first is international. Trust is vital and there is a danger of a systemic loss of confidence in British financial management. Already sterling has fallen by as much as it did in 1992 when it was ejected from the ERM. We are going into this downturn with an exceptionally high budget deficit of around 4 per cent of GDP and that could rise to 6 per cent or more in

Stephen Vines

Twelve steps to market meltdown

At times of financial crisis there is often a feeling that all the old certainties have been blown away. But what is striking about the entire history of stock-market crises is that they fall into a pattern — and this pattern makes it possible to make broad predictions about the panic cycles that have been remarkably consistent for more than a century. American experts have dominated the sub-genre of identifying panic cycles, notably the market historian Charles Kindleberger and the economist Hyman Minsky. Based on their work, it is possible to identify the stages of the cycle — but not, to pre-empt the obvious question, to know exactly when it

Judi Bevan

‘These clouds will have a silver lining’

Judi Bevan meets Sir John Parker, who chairs National Grid and the Court of the Bank of England — and takes an optimistic view of the deepening recession Few people would have dared to walk out of lunch at the Savoy Grill leaving behind the irascible Lord King. Sir John Parker, the softly spoken Irish charmer who now chairs National Grid, did just that. When he took over as chief executive at the ailing engineering firm Babcock & Wilcox in 1993, he first had to deal with the late John King, then chairman, who believed he should still call the shots despite the decline of the company under his command.

Catherine Blyth

Don’t confuse conversation with dialogue or quips

Catherine Blyth says that conversation is an art: its essence is the acrobatic business of reading and changing minds — talking with people, not at them How would you feel if you arrived at a dinner party to find your plate garnished with a menu? Impressed, irritated or inspired to discover a new level in social intimidation? Imagine that menu listed not dishes, but conversation topics to wash down each course, such as, ‘Which of my ambitions is likely to remain unfulfilled?’ or ‘Is sex overrated?’ According to Alain de Botton, writing in Standpoint, topic menus promise the salvation of the art of conversation. Sartre reckoned hell is other people.

Christopher Lloyd

For a bit of perspective, try thinking Jurassic

Bees do democracy best. They vote, you know. Not that they bother with anything as trivial as electing a new president. Nor do they worry about the colour of their ruler’s stripes. In the natural world of a beehive there are no unnecessary arguments about popular succession, no expensive lobbying or financial fuss. When election season comes, the question they vote on is simply this: where on earth to site a new nest? Now what’s the most natural way of expressing an opinion? Let’s see… buzzing very loudly? But that might get a bit too noisy. Scribbling on a piece of paper? Not a bad idea — after all, it

Bryan Forbes

Where is our inspiration when we most need it?

Bryan Forbes remembers listening to Churchill as a 14-year-old evacuee and now looks with envy at Obama’s capacity to galvanise hope. Where are his UK counterparts? All across America, galvanised by an inspirational candidate, people stood in line for up to four hours in order to vote, many for the first time in their lives, and oh how I longed for an iota of that fervour and commitment to infect our own political scene. Instead, on our side of the pond, in our own hour of need, we were subjected to the same tired rhetoric that has long since been unfit for purpose. In this month of remembrance is there

Daniel Finkelstein

The great Tory tax and spend battle: seconds out…

In the wake of Cameron’s decision to drop his pledge to match Labour spending, Fraser Nelson and Daniel Fin kelstein of the Times trade rhetorical blows over the issue that is gripping and troubling the Conservative party as it adjusts to the transformed economic context Dear Fraser, I feel we really need to have a word about tax. It was something you said that set me off. Something you used to underpin your argument that the Tories need to start announcing tax cuts. Could I detain you for a moment, and ask for an explanation? Perhaps you remember your words. ‘The Tories were daft to focus so much on borrowing

Martin Vander Weyer

Thank goodness we can have a run on the pound when we need one

Martin Vander Weyer looks ahead to next week’s Pre-Budget Report and reflects on George Osborne’s contentious remarks about the devaluation of sterling. It looks like Gordon Brown is getting away with his borrowing binge — leaving the Tories isolated On Monday afternoon I rang a distinguished City economist and asked him a rather technical question about the relationship between issuance of gilt-edged stock and movements in the dollar-sterling exchange rate. ‘Not really my specialist field,’ he replied suavely. ‘But I’ll give you my overview: George Osborne is a prat.’ And that, I’m afraid — expressed with varying degrees of bluntness or circumlocution — was pretty much the consensus of all

Tuesday

18 Nov 2008

Alex Massie

One Nation Republicanism?

David Frum is leaving National Review to set up a new online venture called NewMajority.com which will launch once Obama takes the oath of office in January. Frum explains himself here: Over the past three years, I have been engaged in some intense rethinking of my own conservatism. My fundamental political principles remain the same as ever: free markets, American leadership in the world, and intense attachment to inherited moral and cultural traditions. Yet I cannot be blind to the evidence that we have seen free markets produce some damaging and dangerous results in recent years. Or that the foreign policy I supported has not yielded the success I would

Alex Massie

The Importance of the Reverse Ferret

I’m pleased to see that Jack Shafer is calling the New York Post’s sudden admiration for President-elect Barack Obama a fine example of the time-honoured tabloid tradition of the Reverse Ferret. (See TDL here and here for more on the importance of ferrets to tabloid newspapers). But there’s nothing terribly surprising here: Obama is enormously popular and the NYP publishes in a city that voted for the new guy overwhelmingly. It would be nuts to be anything other than gushingly enthusiastic about the new President’s prospects. Remember too that the tabloids can’t live on cynicism and manufactured outrage alone. No, they need a thick streak of sentiment too. Hence their

James Forsyth

In other news…

It won’t get as much attention as it should because of today’s announcement on spending by the Tories, but Michael Gove’s speech this evening pledging to allow state schools to choose alternative exams to GCSEs and A-Levels is important. It offers a way away from the race to bottom in examination standards that has so bedevilled the education system in recent years. It will also be a genuinely meritocratic reform; no longer will it just be pupils from independent schools who have access to things like the IB, the Pre-U and IGCSES. Education is the policy area where the Tories are most consistently innovative. The fluency of their thinking on

Peter Hoskin

A Book A Week

Just to flag up a little task I’ve set myself over at the Spectator Book Club. The plan is for me to read a book each week, and review and discuss it on the site’s discussion board. The first book will be Tom Bower’s biography of Gordon Brown, and the thread for it – along with more information about my future reads – is here. It ‘s certainly not obligatory, but ‘twould be nice to see some CoffeeHousers over there – if only so you can make sure I don’t skip a week…

Peter Hoskin

Is this what the Labour counterattack will look like?

The Standard’s Paul Waugh blogs on how Labour might outflank the Tories on spending cuts, in rhetoric if not in deed: “Downing Street has just revealed that Yvette Cooper led a Cabinet discussion on the post-Gershon efficiency review – and made plain that the Chancellor will next week suggest that he wants to go beyond the £30 billion in savings (aka cuts) already announced. Ms Cooper explained to colleagues how “there may be scope to go beyond” the £30 billion, Number 10 said… …the politics are clear. This is Labour saying ‘we are already getting maximum value for money for the taxpayer and cutting spending back as much as possible.

James Forsyth

The Tories should move all their MPs to Witney or Tatton

One of the underappreciated factors in Obama’s success is that his campaign was not based in the Washington area. This meant there were fewer journalists around, fewer bits of gossip were picked up in bars and restaurants and those who moved to Chicago to work for the campaign were focused on getting Obama elected and not worried about protecting their own reputations among the political and journalistic elite. It all aided the ‘No drama with Obama’ mantra and meant that when he hit a rocky patch the effect wasn’t amplified by a string of stories filled with blind quotes from staffers about worries within the campaign. By contrast, when the

Peter Hoskin

Should the Tories fear these poll numbers?

Courtesy of Political Betting, the headline figures from the latest MORI poll: Conservatives — 40 percent (down 5) Labour — 37 percent (up 7) Lib Dems — 12 percent (down two) Opinion polls have been varying wildly over the past couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to see if – and how – they settle after the PBR. In the meantime, numbers like these will fuel the idea that Brown’s set to call an early election.

James Forsyth

Credit where credit’s due

Today’s news that the Tories will no longer pledge to match Labour’s spending plans will, I’m sure, be welcomed by CoffeeHousers. The word on the street is that there will be more announcements coming soon that will indicate a more robust Tory approach on the economy. But it is worth noting that it is also confirmation of another ConservativeHome scoop following on from the news that the Tories are, as Tim reported back in September planning to downplay—or dump—green taxes. (Personally, I’m not convinced this is a good idea. Those of us on the right should be in favour of shifting the tax burden from work to waste.) These scoops are further proof

Peter Hoskin

Osborne delivers a clear Tory message

This from George Osborne, speaking on the Beeb just now: “Spending restraint under Conservatives, tax rises under Labour” This bluntly effective message – that Brown’s tax-cuts-now translate to tax-rises-in-future – is perhaps that best chance the Tories have to set the economic narrative. Hat-tip: Politics Home

Peter Hoskin

Cameron dumps Labour spending plans

I wrote earlier that David Cameron needed to do more to to outline how the Tories will respond to the fiscal and economic downturn. He just has. In a keynote speech, the Tory leader announced that his party will ditch their commitment to match Labour spending plans for 2010/11. The emphasis now, as he put it, is on building a low tax, low debt, low interest rate economy Now, this marks a massive strategic shift for the Cameroons. To all intents and purposes, the nebulous “sharing the proceeds of growth” concept has been jettisoned. The emphasis now is on cutting back the size of the state and, one assumes, using

James Forsyth

The social effects of recession

David Brooks has a typically masterful column in the New York Times this morning on the social consequences of recessions. His warning about the possible impact on people’s perceptions of democracy and the market system in developing countries are particularly worth paying attention to. But it was this statistic about the US that jumped out at me: “The recession of the 1970s produced a cynicism that has never really gone away. The share of students who admitted to cheating jumped from 34 percent in 1969 to 60 percent a decade later.” I’d be fascinated to know what the statistics on this are for Britain today compared to 50 years ago.

Peter Hoskin

The Tory attack operation warms up

There’s a punchy op-ed from David Cameron in today’s Guardian, centred around this three-pronged attack on Brown’s borrowing binge: “But excessive borrowing, adding to permanent national debt, to cut taxes or boost spending is the wrong approach. There are three reasons for this. The first is that we simply cannot afford it. We’re already mired in debt thanks to Brown’s age of irresponsibility – £2.4 trillion at the last estimate – so we have nothing to fall back on. Paying back Brown’s planned £15bn borrowing binge will mean the equivalent of an additional £880 tax bill for every family in Britain. Imagine the toll this would take on people. Think