Society

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

An L-shaped downturn?

Much of the talk about bank bailouts blithely presupposes there will be good times just around the corner – and the state will sell the dodgy assets at a profit to the taxpayer as happened in New Zealand, Hong Kong etc. It’s the “buy on the dips” mentality – the idea that what goes down must go up and the only question is whether we’re in a U-shaped downturn or a V-shaped downturn. Yet there is a third, horrible possibility: an L-shaped downturn. This prospect should be taken seriously, and here’s why. Despite all the media references to Britain being “on the brink” of recession, we probably entered one in

James Forsyth James Forsyth

All tactics, no strategy

As Matt notes, there is now a truce in the Labour party; the reshuffle has earned Brown the right to die another day. When you look at the reshuffle it becomes clear that Brown has appeased every faction in the Labour party: the Blairites get Mandelson back and McBride moved upstairs, Compass get Jon Trickett as Brown’s PPS, the Unions get Adonis moved from education and Gordon Brown himself gets a Whip office staffed by his praetorians. But it still remains totally unclear what Gordon plans to do next. Brown’s lack of direction and decision can be seen in the fact that apart from him there now appear to be

Peter Hoskin

Darling speeds up recapitalisation plans

Having finally caught onto what the banks want, it seems that Alistair Darling is going to dance to their tune and speed up plans for a recapitalisation package.  According to the Standard, around £50 billion could be pumped into the sector “within days”. Sure, the dither-o-meter has just receded a notch.  But now comes the separate question of whether recapitalisation is the right course of action.  Truth is, it could help stabilise the markets for the time being (they’re currently plummeting on the back of banking losses).  But will the effect be anything other than temporary?  Can the public finances afford the hit?  Will future taxpayers be shielded from any undue burden?  I, for one, have my doubts.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

No specifics from Darling, as the markets nosedive

So there we have it – at close, the FTSE share index had dropped by 7.85 percent, its largest one-day fall since 1987.  The banks were, predictably, the big losers.  HBOS plummeted by 20 percent; the Royal Bank of Scotland by 20 percent; and Barclays by 15 percent. Meanwhile, Alistair Darling gave a statement in Parliament (watch it here) which was full of the same obfuscating language that Angela Merkel’s been employing recently.  Will the Government provide a 100% guarantee for all UK savings?  Hm, it’s hard to tell.  Apparently, they’ll take “whatever measures are necessary to maintain the stability of the financial system”.  And, reassuringly, they’ll also do “whatever it takes” and “everything we can”.  You can read into

James Forsyth James Forsyth

When did Mandelson change his mind about Brown?

I don’t think anyone disputes that Mandelson used to not have a very high opinion of Brown’s premiership. As Danny blogged on Sunday, the Corfu story was in circulation before Mandelson’s shock return but not considered particularly surprising by anybody. But if Kevin Maguire is to be believed, Mandelson was still sticking the knife into Brown only ten days before returning to the Cabinet: “I heard an intriguing tale during Labour’s conference in Manchester. After Brown’s acclaimed speech a TV crew asked Mandy for a comment. The then Euro Commissioner continued walking straight ahead, lips sealed. About an hour later Mandy bumped into the same crew. “Did you get what

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 6 October – 12 October

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local

Peter Hoskin

The turmoil continues

Brace yourselves for another day of financial turmoil.  At time of writing, the FTSE 100 share index has fallen by just under 6 percent; as has Germany’s DAX index.  And all this despite the German finance ministry’s €50 billion rescue package for one of the country’s biggest banks, and Angela Merkel’s announcement that the government will ensure that all savings account deposits are “safe” (although it’s still unclear whether this will translate into an Irish-style savings guarantee). The big question now is whether the UK government will also guarantee all deposits in this country.  As numerous commentators have pointed out, there are various reasons against such a measure – the Damoclean sword it would

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 6 October 2008

Here are some of the posts made over the weekend on Spectator.co.uk: Matthew d’Ancona reveals that Peter Mandelson consulted Tony Blair about his return to government. Theo Hobson defends the Church of England. Fraser Nelson highlights an encouraging poll for the Tories, and asks whether the Mandelson gamble will pay off for Brown. James Forsyth looks into Peronigate, and rails against the salary being paid to the head of Newham council. Melanie Phillips gives her take on the departure of Sir Ian Blair from the Met. Clive Davis details how not to behave on a train.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

‘Emergency Labour’

Jackie Ashley coins the telling phrase ‘Emergency Labour’ to describe the party post-Mandelson’s return.  Looking at the reshuffle as a whole one is struck by how little ideological direction there is to it. It does not mark, whatever the headline appearances might suggest, a return to Blairism. Yes, Mandelson is back but at the same time Lord Adonis—the man who was doing more to push forward public service reform than anyone else in the government—has been moved out of his role. Indeed, Brown’s strategy appears to be to rely on the public believing that only he and his team of ‘serious people’ can see the country through the financial crisis.

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Obama will determine the potency of the novice line

‘This is no time for a novice’ was undoubtedly the line of the conference season. It is the one that people will remember six months from now. But the effectiveness of it will to a significant extent depend on events outside of Brown or Cameron’s control. It looks as if the US presidential race is breaking decisively in Barack Obama’s favour. Obama’s lead in the polling averages is now the largest it has been since June and his numbers are trending upwards. Obama and Cameron’s levels of experience are roughly comparable and so his election will become a test of whether novices can lead in these troubled times. If by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

How can a borough where half the children live in poverty justify paying its chief executive £240,000 a year?

So frequently does one hear of public money being wasted that it is all too easy to become inured to it. But the Sunday Telegraph’s revelation that the head of Newham council, Joe Duckworth, is paid £240,000 a year should be enough to shock anyone out of their complacency about waste. It is quite simply immoral that in a borough where half the children live in poverty, council tax money is being used to pay for such a grossly inflated salary.  The idea that £240,000 is the market rate for this job is risible. First of all, as the Telegraph points out, the Audit Commission found that the quality rating

Saturday

Alex James

Slow Life | 4 October 2008

The tent had been a big hit over the summer. They called it a tent, but it was big enough for elephants and tightropes: a big top as big as a ballroom and just as plush, lined and interlined like a lush pair of curtains, certainly ridiculous, but pretty and practical. Our friends from LA had been back here for summer. They pitched it in their garden in June and didn’t strike it until September, more or less living in it on rugs and cushions for the whole time they were here, in the garden but out of the rain. We’d been to two parties in it, parties where everyone

Jeremy Clarke

Low Life | 4 October 2008

‘My life’s over, doctor,’ I said. ‘A young man like you! Nonsense!’ he said, peering at me over his half-moon glasses. He was that wonderful combination: a fat man squeezed into an old-fashioned waistcoat. Occasionally, he mopped the perspiration from his brow with the handkerchief he kept in the outside breast pocket of his jacket. ‘How old are you?’ he said. I told him. He wrote the figure down. ‘And how old is your partner?’ I told him. He raised his eyebrows and wrote this figure down underneath. ‘How long have you been together?’ ‘About three months,’ I said. ‘And how long have you been having difficulties?’ ‘About three months,’

Taki

High Life | 4 October 2008

In praise of older women When I read that actor Robert Wagner had had a four-year-long affair with Barbara Stanwyck back in 1952, my first reaction was that of envy and more envy. Wagner is 77 this year and Babs would have been 101, so when they were canoodling together he was 22 and she was 47. Excellent. Perfect. Young men need older women for sex as much as older men need younger ones later on. It is nature’s fit, a perfect combination which carries the eloquence of the unspoken. I am now 72 but 50 years ago I would have given two legs and an arm to bed Babs.

Tamzin Lightwater

Diary of a Notting Hill Nobody | 4 October 2008

Tamzin Lightwater’s unique take on the week Sunday Am exhausted already. It’s this earpiece. Every time I get settled into watching a debate or fringe event I hear Gary’s voice shouting orders and I’m running off to some other place where an alleged BCR (Breach of Complacency Rules) is taking place. This morning I ran between the hotel and conference centre five times for a mixture of offences. I had to wrestle buck’s fizz out of the hands of three shadow ministers who will remain nameless — Dave knows who you are! — and a whisky from a shadow cabinet member who claimed it was ‘hair of the dog’. This

Penny Smith

Diary – 4 October 2008

I was without my dance partner last week. John Stapleton had abandoned me on the GMTV sofa for the comforts of a hotel in Manchester and a well-stocked mini-bar. Apparently this particular Labour party conference was like a family having problems, putting on a brave face for Christmas, according to one of those attending. I sat on the sofa in splendid isolation, and talked about global meltdowns. Greg Wise came in to do an interview on GMTV Today. He is one of the nicest men in showbiz. And possibly the most handsome. Last time he was in, I bored him to death with plays I had seen. I thought I

The Spectator

Letters | 4 October 2008

The Church is culpable too Sir: Will Rowan Williams start his call for ‘fresh scrutiny and regulation in the financial world’ (‘Face it: Marx was partly right about capitalism’, 27 September) by glancing at the institution he heads? I am told that the 2007 Church of England target for its investment arm was 6 per cent above Bank of England base rate. It should have been clear to the Archbishop that this could not be achieved without the Church getting involved in the murky world of City finance. The Church of England was made to look even more ridiculous when the Archbishop of York called short-sellers ‘bank robbers and asset

Toby Young Toby Young

Status Anxiety | 4 October 2008

Disciplined, cheerful, humble and truly nice -— Simon Pegg is everything I’m not It is a strange experience interviewing the actor who has just played you in the film of your life. Simon Pegg has been cast as yours truly in How to Lose Friends & Alienate People and the first thing he does is remind me that there is a scene in the film in which he makes a complete hash of an interview with a famous actor. That inevitably raises the question: if I mess up this interview, and the makers of the sequel want to include this scene in the film, who will be cast as ‘Simon

Mary Killen

Dear Mary | 4 October 2008

Q. Last week I gave lunch to my dear goddaughter and her equally dear mother in a fashionable restaurant. Both my goddaughter and I were rendered speechless when her mother produced a plastic bottle of water from her handbag and commenced to swig from it. The situation was quickly remedied when we both upbraided her soundly and water was obtained from the management. My question is: what should we have done if we had not been in a position to be so frank with the swigger, given the live-forever industry’s continued insistence on the constant public overconsumption of this fluid? J.S., Goring Heath A. You would have calmly said to

James Forsyth James Forsyth

McCain has to shake the race up

Sarah Plain survived the VP debate on Thursday night but the trajectory of the race still favours Obama-Biden. If things continue as they are, they will win in something approaching a landslide on November fourth. Over the last few weeks, Obama has built a sizable national poll lead, the polling average puts him 5.7 percent ahead, and moved into a lead in most of the key battleground states. McCain needs a game-changer. As one McCain aide told the Washington Post, “There’s no question that we have to change the subject here”. McCain’s next best chance to change the dynamics of this race comes on Tuesday in the second presidential debate.