Society

Sunday

Ross Clark Ross Clark

How can ‘test and trace’ stop a virus spread by the asymptomatic?

The government has placed a lot of hope in its test and trace system, but even disregarding teething problems with the smartphone app and reports of some of the 25,000 contact tracers being left idle, is it even possible for it to achieve its objective? The problem with Covid-19 all along, and the reason it has managed to evade the efforts of containment which had worked with previous novel viruses such as SARS and avian flu, is the sheer number of people who seem to be infected but who show no symptoms. Some studies have shown that 80 percent of cases might fall into this category. Worse, there is plenty

Douglas Murray

What the response to London’s young graffiti cleaners reveals

Further Black Lives Matter protests took place yesterday in the UK, in response to the death of a man at the hands of a Minnesota cop a fortnight ago. So far the tally from the London protest includes not only the now traditional mass-breaking of the government’s Covid guidelines, the graffiti-ing of the Cenotaph, the statues of Sir Winston Churchill and Abraham Lincoln, but also the injuring of 27 police officers in what the BBC nevertheless persists in calling ‘largely peaceful anti-racism protests’. Which brings to mind something important that has been too little discussed in the days since the last London protests, four days ago. That is the video

Saturday

Robert Peston Robert Peston

Can Britain avoid a second lockdown?

What comes next, now that the transmission rate and prevalence of Covid-19 have fallen significantly? (Before you shout at me, yes I know there is frustration and some bemusement among scientists that illness incidence and numbers of deaths have not dropped faster in the UK, but they have nonetheless reduced significantly, if not uniformly, everywhere). There are detailed plans from the government for when and how to restart certain businesses and social activities in the coming six weeks. But there is not a clearly articulated strategy for how we are expected to live and work between now and the end of the year (and beyond). So I’ve tried to piece

John Lee John Lee

Science, doubt and the ‘second wave’ of Covid

In taking a position on an issue, most of us like to think that we accumulate evidence, consider the pros and cons, and then rationally come to a view that we’ll be willing to change if and when the evidence demands it. But it turns out that this is very much a minority way of going about things. The psychological evidence is very clear. What most people do is take a position very soon after being presented with an issue, and then accumulate evidence and reasoning to justify that position. This goes some way to explaining the increasing polarisation of views about coronavirus, which have been hardening over the last few

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Professor Sunetra Gupta interview: There’s not enough diversity of opinion on Sage

This week, the government has come under criticism from a number of its scientific advisers for easing the lockdown too quickly. Meanwhile, both chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific officer Patrick Vallance have emphasised the need to move cautiously at this point in the lockdown easing. However, not every scientist takes this view. On the latest Women with Balls podcast, I’m joined by professor Sunetra Gupta to discuss her career – and her assessment of coronavirus.  The professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford is the lead scientist behind the Oxford study, which in March that offered an alternative view to Imperial College’s dire coronavirus predictions. It suggested that the

Friday

Tom Slater Tom Slater

Lego, George Floyd and the politics of playtime

Time was that toys would be recalled, removed from sale or quietly had their advertising pulled if they were covered in lead paint, defective, or in the case of Disney’s hilariously misjudged 1999 ‘Rad Repeatin’ Tarzan’ doll, appeared to be masturbating. Today all it takes is for them to be potentially perceived by someone, somewhere, as insensitive. The Culture War has so seeped into every corner of modern life that Lego has actually pulled marketing of its police and White House toys – presumably in an effort not to stoke more civil unrest – in the wake of George Floyd’s death. Amid the protests and riots that continue to roil

Ross Clark Ross Clark

One in ten Brits may have had coronavirus

All through the Covid-19 pandemic we have been hampered by a lack of data on just how many people have had the disease. Given that several studies have indicated that as many as 80 per cent of people who are infected show no symptoms whatsoever, it is extremely difficult to estimate this crucial figure – which determines the mortality rate of Covid-19 and also how far away we might be from achieving a position of herd immunity. Today, however, comes some very substantial data. The Medical Research Council’s Biostatistics Unit has published estimates of infections derived from serological studies on samples collected from the NHS Blood Transfusion Service.  It estimates

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

New study suggests Covid infections were falling before lockdown

When lockdown was first imposed, there was little science to base it on. The virus was assumed to be growing at an exponential rate, with each infected person passing it on to about four others. The controversial assumption: only mandatory lockdown could stop this. Graphs were drawn, showing the infection rate barely dented by voluntary measures (like handwashing, keeping socially distanced etc.) but lockdown making things safe instantly. Imperial College’s cliff-edge graph had huge traction (the below is a BBC reproduction) and made an open-and-shut case for lockdown. The above assumptions were the basis of a recent Sunday Times investigation entitled ‘UK’s lockdown dithering led to worst death toll in Europe.’

Debbie Hayton

Hungary offers a lesson in crying wolf on ‘transphobia’

Transphobia is a word thrown around far too easily. But Hungary’s move to end legal recognition of trans people really is something to worry about. While Britain has been embroiled in a heated debate over proposed changes to the Gender Recognition Act, which allows people to change their legal gender on the production of medical reports and a diagnosis of gender dysphoria, in Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz government has swept such rights away.  On 19 May, the Hungarian National Assembly voted 133 to 37 to ban transgender people from changing the gender on their identity documents. The word ‘nem’ – meaning sex or gender – was replaced by the unambiguous term, ‘születési nem’, meaning sex at birth. Hungary’s government’s communication office explained

Merlin Hanbury-Tenison

After the flood: The age of the beaver

It is a moment of cautious and much-contested transition in our Covid saga. I don’t mean the move from lockdown to a slightly more ‘nation as usual’ situation that’s being thrashed out in parliament, but in my father, Robin Hanbury-Tenison, and his mode of transport from mobility scooter to ‘yomping with confidence’. In the last ten days, he has shifted from merely surviving the virus back towards thriving in his old youthful manner. It will still be some months before he is the vigorous and inexhaustible octogenarian that we took for granted in February but every day marks a small step forward in his journey back to health. The shift from

Katy Balls Katy Balls

With Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta

30 min listen

Sunetra Gupta is Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford. An expert in the fight against infectious diseases, she is the lead scientist behind the Oxford study that disputed Imperial College’s dire coronavirus predictions. She is also a novelist and translator. On the podcast, she talks to Katy about her writing and how it was inspired by her intellectual father; her dispute with the mentor of Imperial College’s Neil Ferguson; and how she has found being in the public eye.

Thursday

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

Our duty to Hong Kong: time to grant citizenship

40 min listen

As China looks to push through its national security law, is it time to offer Hong Kongers a way out? (01:00) And with the Black Lives Matter protests continuing to rage in America, can they unseat Donald Trump? (15:30) And last, do animals have culture? (29:10)

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: MPs return, dentists reopen and racing resumes

Home Primary schools were allowed to reopen but many did not want to. MPs voted to return to their physical presence in parliament. The government told people they were allowed to meet in gardens or on rooftops, up to the number of six, as long as those from different households remained two metres apart. About 2.5 million vulnerable people in England and Wales, who had been advised to stay at home, were now advised that those living alone might meet another single person out of doors. Rosie Duffield, the Labour MP for Canterbury, resigned as a whip after she was found to have gone for a walk with her current

The Spectator

Has Covid-19 evolved to become less deadly?

Covid deaths Has Covid-19 evolved to become less deadly?— Global infections reached a new peak on 29 May, with 125,473. The daily average for the past seven days is 108,965, 36% higher than in the week beginning 14 April.— However, deaths peaked at 8,429 on 17 April. The daily total for the past seven days is 3,902, 43% lower than in the week beginning 14 April.Source: Worldometers Quiet hospitals How did NHS activity change in the last quarter of 2019/20 compared with a year earlier?Hospital admissions -9.6% Elective admissions -9.7%GP referrals -13.9% Other referrals -8.3%Source: NHS England Busy beaches Beaches were packed, leading to fears of social distancing. What are

The Spectator

Letters: the NHS shutdown is hurting patients and costing lives

Poor treatment Sir: My recent experience supports Dr Max Pemberton’s view that the NHS is letting down thousands of patients (‘Nothing to applaud’, 30 May). I am a 71-year-old living alone, with no symptoms of coronavirus. For several weeks I have, however, been experiencing severe pain in my left hip. A consultation with my GP diagnosed that I needed a shot of cortisone to reduce the inflammation, but I was told that the NHS was unable to offer clinical consultations due to a focus on the crisis. I was unable to cope with the pain any longer, so my daughter arranged a private consultation and an injection at a cost

Susan Hill Susan Hill

There’s no point in bishops – Covid has shown us so

It is a relief to parents that young children are allowed out a bit now as the length of the lockdown has wreaked havoc with tempers. Birthdays have been particularly difficult. Zoom parties, with every guest in their little on-screen box like stamps in an album, are a poor substitute for a roomful of overexcited kids eating jelly. My granddaughter was eight last week and at last could meet her best friend, who lives next door, in the new paddling pool. They have managed uncomplainingly via walkie-talkies through a window so this was a joyful reunion. But what about the other would-be dressed-up party guests, not to mention gift-bearers? Allow

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

The real problem with Newsnight

The Twitter feed of BBC Newsnight editor Esme Wren (remember, I read this stuff so you don’t have to) is full of plaintive whining that no cabinet minister will agree to appear on her benighted programme. The Twitter feed of her chief presenter, Emily Maitlis, is largely a screed of bile and petulance directed at the government, some of which is usefully later recycled into her opening programme monologue. Unless Esme has had her brain scooped out with a soup spoon you might expect her to have found a connection between these two facts. Not a bit of it. ‘Cabinet minister, what is it about Newsnight, with its left-wing presenters,

Jeremy Clarke

An 11-year-old’s birthday party was hijacked by Brexit

Saturday night we ate outside next to the floodlit rock face. Four adult guests came puffing up the path and one child, George, celebrating his 11th birthday. A string of low-wattage coloured bulbs hung above our heads. Chicken curry. Dahl. Pink wine. Yellow champagne. Little brass oil lamps on the table. John Mayall & the Bluesbreakers — trite lyrics, sublime guitar — for the birthday playlist. A cream-filled birthday cake in the fridge awaited the right moment. Dominic Cummings was all the rage that day and every one of our adult guests was an ardent Remainer. As passionately tribal in their globalist philosophy as football fans, they’d gone into confinement

Janet de Botton

Bridge | 6 June 2020

When did we change from being a nation of curtain-twitching old biddies into one of full-on super-snitches? First a retired teacher (male) reported Dominic Cummings to the police (I mean — can you imagine actually doing that?) for getting into his own car with two members of his own household and driving 260 miles to ensure the safety of his child? One day after doing almost the same thing himself? Another professional snitch, who invented a second sighting, has now said he made up the story as ‘a little bit of comedy value’. Whatever gets you through lockdown, I guess. Hands like this are getting me through. Luckily for South,