Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Gavin Mortimer

For the good of France, Macron must go

This evening Emmanuel Macron will almost certainly be searching for his sixth prime minister since January last year. Francois Bayrou’s decision to call a vote of confidence in his government looks like a calamitous misjudgement, one that will plunge France into another period of grave instability. Comparisons are being drawn with the tumult of the Fourth Republic when, between 1946 and 1958, France went through more than twenty governments. The French are fed up with their political class Bayrou’s coalition government has limped along this year, achieving little other than creating more disenchantment and contempt among the long-suffering electorate. The French are fed up with their political class. Above all, they’re

Prince Harry returns, but does Britain want him back?

“Success”, Winston Churchill was once reputed to have said, “is the ability to go from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.” By this metric, Prince Harry must be about the most successful figure in public life today. Despite a series of myriad embarrassments and humiliations, which have included his Sentebale charity descending into chaos, his well-publicised legal shenanigans (which, apparently, cost him over a million pounds, for little reward) and a consistent ranking as Britain’s third most unpopular royal (ahead only of his disgraced uncle and perennially disliked wife), he is returning to Britain this week, for his first significant visit to 2022. Harry is “determined to press the

Why do so many Brits hate Jews?

If you’re a Brit who doesn’t hate Jews – a smaller number than you might think – then you may be surprised by a poll published over the weekend by the Campaign Against Antisemitism, to coincide with its protest march through London. The CAA’s YouGov poll found that the number of people who admitted – perhaps a better word is boasted – they hate Jews has doubled since 2021. The reaction to the Holocaust did not destroy Jew hate. It merely buried it They didn’t put it like that, of course, but it’s what they meant. Respondents were shown a dozen different statements, as prescribed in the ‘Generalised Antisemitism Scale’,

Is Jacinda Ardern hiding from Covid scrutiny?

During the five years Jacinda Ardern led New Zealand, much was made of her ‘transparent’ style of touchy-feely leadership and willingness to deal with thorny questions. Yet on the biggest issue of her record – her zero Covid policies – the former Prime Minister has gone missing. A planned week-long public hearing at an inquiry in New Zealand into the nation’s Covid response was abandoned last month, after Jacinda Ardern and other senior figures from her government unexpectedly refused to testify. Ardern’s no-show came as a surprise to many, including the country’s prime minister, Christopher Luxon, who said his predecessor’s decision was ‘not right’. Summarising her decision not to speak

James Heale

Starmer’s reshuffle has Morgan McSweeney’s fingerprints all over it

After 48 hours, the final appointments have been made to complete the government’s reshuffle. A raft of rising stars from the 2024 intake like Josh McAlister, Josh Simons and Kate Dearden have all been handed junior ministerial posts. Kanishka Narayan, a tech enthusiast and Labour’s only Old Etonian, has gone to the Department for Science. Blair McDougall, who ran the Better Together campaign in 2014, is now in Business and Trade. These have been balanced with appointments for more long-serving colleagues too. Chris Elmore joins Yvette Cooper in the new-look Foreign Office team, while Anna McMorrin has replaced Nia Griffith in the Welsh Office. It is instructive to look at

Event

Speaker Series: An evening with Bernard Cornwell

  • Monday 27 October 2025, 7:00pm
  • Westminster, London
  • £27.50 - £77
Book now

Britain can learn from France on migration

12 min listen

It’s the big day for Starmer’s one-in, one-out migrant deal with France. The scheme, which was agreed during the state visit last month, comes into effect today – but Yvette Cooper and other figures in Whitehall remain suspiciously evasive when it comes to putting a number on returns to France. Immigration is, of course, the problem of highest salience across the country, and made even more pressing by recent riots at migrant hotels, giving far-right opposition parties plenty of ammunition. Polling shows that 40 per cent of Reform supporters would consider voting for Labour next time if the number of small boat arrivals fell. So, will it work? Will it

James Heale

Sacré bleu! We have a migration deal with France

15 min listen

On today’s podcast: sacré bleu – we have a one-in, one-out migration deal with France. In a press conference yesterday, Keir Starmer and President Macron announced a deal they hope will curb Channel crossings. But, as ever, the devil is in the detail, with some key concerns about the numbers and the time frame. Digital ID cards are also back on the agenda – after an intervention from former MI6 boss Alex Younger on Newsnight. The argument is that they could deter the ‘grey labour force’ and make it harder to work in the UK for those arriving via unauthorised means. It’s the Blairite policy that refuses to go away

Can Keir defrost the ‘entente glaciale’?

13 min listen

Zut alors! The French are in town. Emmanuel Macron is on his state visit this week, spending time today with the King and tomorrow with the Prime Minister. His itinerary includes a state dinner and an address to both Houses of Parliament this afternoon. All the pageantry, of course, is for a reason: to defrost what Tim Shipman calls the ‘entente glaciale’ and the stalemate over migration. Keir will be hoping to get the French to sign a ‘one in, one out’ migration deal – with Labour seemingly surprised that, upon coming into power, the French didn’t roll over and make concessions on small boats when a left-wing government took

Jonathan Miller

Le Pen is still the biggest winner in France’s elections

Ignore most snap verdicts from last night – the big winner in the French parliamentary election was still Marine Le Pen, whose third-place finish was perfectly placed. True, egged on by polls showing it on the verge of an absolute majority, the Rassemblement National (National Rally) over-promised and underdelivered. But, in the topsy-turvy world of French politics in 2024, to lose was to win. Dirty work is about to be done at the Elysée Le Pen fought a competent campaign and her voters aren’t blaming her for failing to take the top of the podium. She’s demonstrated again that she’s highly resilient. Not achieving a majority has done her a

Gavin Mortimer

Britain is heading the way of France

The backlash against Keir Starmer has begun. Some senior figures within the Labour party have criticised the Prime Minister’s warning on Monday that Britain is in danger of becoming an ‘island of strangers’. Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, and Eluned Morgan, the first minister of Wales, are among those who believe the PM is being alarmist.  Morgan said one should not use ‘divisive language when it comes to immigration.’ She added that reducing immigration, in the manner Starmer outlined on Monday, would damage Wales’s care sector. And also presumably the country’s hairdressing industry. Yesterday it was reported that the town of Porth in south Wales (population 5,970) will soon

James Heale

Marine Le Pen: justice or lawfare?

14 min listen

Marine Le Pen, president of Rassemblement National (National Rally) was found guilty this week of embezzling EU funds to boost her party’s finances. The guilty verdict was widely expected, however her sentence was far harsher than even her strongest critics expected – part of which saw her banned from standing for office for five years, with immediate effect. Le Pen had been the favourite to win the next French presidential election in 2027. Pursuing Donald Trump through the courts was widely seen as backfiring as he went on to win the presidential election, and many have argued that there is a double standard with many more figures and parties facing investigation from

Jonathan Miller

More booze won’t save France’s dying village life

Reach for the pastis, Jacques. A law is making its way through the French parliament to relax alcohol licensing, to make it easier to open bars and cafes in French towns and villages. French politicians are desperate to try anything to stimulate commerce in villages that are dying, the life sucked out of them by shopping centres with everything just five minutes away in the car. That more bars will be helpful is likely to be wishful thinking. The days when the Café de la Paix was at the centre of village life are long passé. It is easy to over-sentimentalise the role of the café in France’s 40,000 small

Jonathan Miller

Donald Trump humiliated Emmanuel Macron

The orca killer whale is known for playing with its prey before killing it, always with a smile. An image that came to mind on Monday when French President Emmanuel Macron arrived at the White House to plead the cause of Ukraine to a grinning President Donald Trump. The French media is dutifully repeating the Elysée line that Macron had rekindled a bromance with the American president, but this is disconnected from reality. Macron returns to Paris today with, as far as I can tell, nothing but platitudes.  This was nothing like Macron’s visits to Washington during the Biden administration, when the French president used to deal with Biden’s sympathetic secretary

Gavin Mortimer

There’s something hypocritical about Macron attacking Musk

Europe’s leaders rounded on Elon Musk on Monday as the American tech billionaire continued to air his views on the state of the Old Continent. Although Musk – who in a fortnight’s time will be president Donald’s Trump efficiency tsar – has focused most of his ire on Britain, he’s also endorsed Alternative for Germany (AfD) in a newspaper column ahead of next month’s parliamentary election. Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Store, said in an interview that he finds it ‘worrying that a man with enormous access to social media and large financial resources is so directly involved in the internal affairs of other countries’. According to Store: ‘This is

Gavin Mortimer

Macron governs only for himself

Emmanuel Macron will this afternoon host the leaders of France’s political parties as he searches for his fourth prime minister of the year. The last one, Michel Barnier, fell last week after just three months in office. Not everyone, however, has received an invitation to the Elysée Palace. Marine Le Pen is persona non grata after her National Rally party joined the left-wing coalition in last Wednesday’s vote of no confidence in Barnier’s government. Macron hasn’t forgiven Le Pen, although he is more conciliatory towards the left-wing parties that conspired to bring down his government. The Communists, the Greens and the Socialists will all enjoy the president’s hospitality this afternoon.

Gavin Mortimer

Banning Marine Le Pen from politics would be a grave mistake

Paris prosecutors last week recommended that Marine Le Pen be jailed and banned from public office for five years. The court also wants similar sentences for 24 members of the party who, along with Le Pen, are accused of misusing public funds. The prosecutor accuses Le Pen of using money intended for EU parliamentary aides to instead pay staff who worked for the party between 2009 and 2016. The defence’s argument is that it’s hard to differentiate between what constitutes EU work and party work as the two often overlap. The judges will study the evidence and a verdict is expected in early 2025. Le Pen was probably not surprised

Gavin Mortimer

It’s rich of the French to call Trump ‘vulgar’

There has always been a touch of snobbery in the way the French elite regard American politics. The word one reads and hears most often in the mainstream media is ‘vulgarity’. This is particularly true of Donald Trump, who is abhorred as much by the right-wing press as by the left. ‘Trump, vulgarity on the loose,’ was the headline in a recent article in the centre-right Le Figaro. This snootiness is long-standing, but it became more acute two decades ago during the war in Iraq. France’s refusal – correct, as it turned out – to join George W. Bush’s ‘coalition of the willing’ led to a torrent of abuse in Washington. The French

Will France’s school uniform experiment foster égalité?

As the new school year begins in France, pupils across the country are putting on school uniforms for the first time in decades. In a pilot program spearheaded by the government, approximately one hundred schools across the country are testing whether uniforms can reduce bullying, improve classroom tranquillity, and foster equality. While some see uniforms as common sense, others – particularly on the political left –dismiss them as a superficial fix to deep-rooted social issues. The schools participating in the experiment are primarily located in right-leaning towns, where support for the initiative has been strongest, while more left-leaning areas are resisting uniforms. Brigitte Macron, herself a former schoolteacher, is said

John Keiger

Does France need a government?

France has been without an official government for seven weeks, the longest in the history of the Fifth Republic. A caretaker prime minister and government have been running the country for what President Macron declared the ‘Olympic truce’. That truce is now over, yet the President is in no hurry to appoint a new prime minister. One can understand why. A clear majority of French voted for alternatives to Macronist policies in the European and legislative elections, something the President refuses to accept. Whichever government is eventually appointed will unpick much of the President’s policies over the last seven years. And given that the locus of power will shift from

Gavin Mortimer

Europe is worried that Britain’s riots might spread

The riots that have erupted across England in the last week have been splashed across Europe’s newspapers and broadcast on the primetime news. There have been editorials in France’s Le Monde, video reports in Spain’s El Pais and podcasts in Sweden’s Aftonbladet. The Italian newspaper, La Stampa, published video footage of disturbances in Plymouth on Monday night, and described the rioters as a mix of ‘extremists and hooligans’. Why did the anti-immigration riots not explode first in France or Germany? Some of the coverage has been superficial. The editorial in Le Monde read: ‘The current riots raise the painful question of the underestimated influence of the far-right in the UK, in a country that likes to recall its traditions

Gavin Mortimer

Why can’t French progressives be more civil?

There was a muted reaction among the French political class to the attempt on Donald’s Trump’s life. Keir Starmer sent his best wishes to the former president in the early hours of Sunday morning, but it was another six hours before president Emmanuel Macron followed suit. The caretaker prime minister of France, Gabriel Attal, made no comment, nor did the man who dreams of having his job, Olivier Faure, the secretary of the Socialist party. Politics in France is a squalid business One or two figures from the left-wing coalition did offer their lukewarm support to Trump. Sandrine Rousseau, for example, a Green MP, wished him a ‘speedy recovery’ and

Gavin Mortimer

How Marine Le Pen rebranded herself

Marine Le Pen was called a ‘bitch’ this week and threatened with sexual violence. It’s what passes for rap music these days in France. The threats won’t unduly concern Le Pen. She’s experienced worse. When she was eight, far-left extremists tried to kill her and her family with five kilos of dynamite. The Le Pens survived, but their Paris apartment didn’t. Say what you like about the leader of the National Rally, and many do, but Marine Le Pen is a tough cookie. She was assaulted on the campaign trail during the 2017 presidential election, a minor setback compared to her subsequent disastrous performance in the television debate with Emmanuel

Cindy Yu

Starmer’s Europe dilemma

13 min listen

As Europe comes to terms with the fallout from Marine Le Pen’s victory in the first round of their parliamentary elections, Cindy Yu talks to Freddy Gray and Katy Balls about what it all means for Keir Starmer. If he does win the UK’s own election on Thursday, he faces a European landscape that could be harder to navigate. What do the results mean for the UK and what reaction has there been? Produced by Cindy Yu and Patrick Gibbons.

John Keiger

Macron’s power in Europe is draining

In Brussels over the last two days EU heads of state and government have been carving up the ‘top jobs’. France is represented by President Emmanuel Macron, whose party took a lashing in the European elections, diminishing further his international standing. By contrast, Marine Le Pen’s victorious Rassemblement National, now on track to win the 7 July general elections, was not present. When RN forms a government it will have to live with the consequences of the President’s decisions for at least five years. It is no coincidence, therefore, that on Wednesday night Marine Le Pen gave an interview opening the way to a constitutional struggle with the head of state

Gavin Mortimer

The shooting of Nahel Merzouk still haunts France

One year ago today, a 17-year-old called Nahel Merzouk was fatally shot by a policeman as he sped away from a vehicle checkpoint in western Paris. What followed shocked France. Days of rioting, looting and burning across the country. Not just in the inner cities but in provincial towns such as Montargis in central France, where a mob vandalised the town hall and pillaged scores of shops. ‘I still have people who almost a year later don’t want to come back to the centre because of the riots,’ said one shopkeeper this week. ‘They’ve been apprehensive ever since, traumatised, even though we’re a fairly quiet town.’ For millions of French

Gavin Mortimer

France under Macron keeps getting worse

The warnings continue to come thick and fast in France about the disaster that could befall the Republic on 7 July if Emmanuel Macron and his government are not returned to power. From the celebrity world to the corporate world – including American investment bank Goldman Sachs – the belief is that France is doomed if either Marine Le Pen’s ‘union of the right’ or Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left-wing coalition is elected to government. Several former senior French politicians have joined the fear-mongering, among them Dominique de Villepin, who was Jacques Chirac’s centre-right prime minister in the 2000s before leaving politics for a lucrative career working with Qatar. In an interview

John Keiger

Is France’s left-wing coalition more dangerous than Le Pen?

French and international media cannot break their fixation with the ‘extreme right’. They continue to target the Rassemblement National (RN) as the ultimate menace for the 7 July legislative elections. But as of Friday, a more potent threat to French political and financial stability has raised its head: the radical left-wing ‘New Popular Front’ (NPF). This coalition of greens, communists, socialists and Trotskyists dominated by the radical-left La France Insoumise party (LFI), surprised many by their agreement to field common constituency candidates and a common manifesto.   Following the bitter breakup two years ago of the radical left-wing NUPES coalition, prospects for a new agreement were slim. Something close to civil war had

Gavin Mortimer

Why are French politicians obsessed with world war two?

War talk is all the rage in France. The conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are often cited, but the war that has come to increasingly obsess the political class in recent weeks is the one that began in 1939. Almost every day brings another reference to a period that barely anyone in the Republic experienced first-hand. The latest example was a radio interview on Tuesday morning between Marion Maréchal, Vice President of Eric Zemmour’s Reconquest party, and a journalist from France Inter, a radio station that describes itself as ‘progressive’. ‘What difference is there,’ the journalist asked Maréchal, ‘between the defence of the family that you propose and that proposed by Marshal

Gavin Mortimer

France has become Europe’s Wild West

New Caledonia must not become the ‘Wild West’ declared Emmanuel Macron last week during his flying visit to the Pacific Island. For two weeks the indigenous people, the Kanaks, have been in revolt against a voting reform they believe will marginalise them. The French President’s visit achieved little. Not long after Macron’s departure an insurgent was shot dead by police. Seven people have been killed in the unrest and the material damage is estimated at more than one billion euros. It is not only the Overseas French Territory that is in danger of resembling the Wild West. Mayhem has become a characteristic of Macron’s France, and rarely does a week

Gavin Mortimer

Germanophobia is growing in France

There was a time earlier this century when few politicians in France would dare criticise Germany. The country was the powerhouse of Europe and Angela Merkel was the de facto president of the continent. Today there is political mileage to be had in attacking Germany, and the assaults have increased this year as campaigning intensifies ahead of June’s European elections. Relations between the two countries are at their lowest ebb in decades In an interview last week Marion Maréchal, the European candidate for Eric Zemmour’s Reconquest party, said that as far as Germany is concerned, ‘France is looking more and more like a battered wife who can’t manage to leave

Gavin Mortimer

The plot to bring down Emmanuel Macron

Last week Emmanuel Macron inaugurated the Olympic aquatic centre that will host the swimming and diving events at this summer’s Paris games. The President was delighted with what he saw, boasting to the press pack that the centre is ‘exemplary from an environmental point of view’. Macron’s party expect the Republicans to make their move in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, from a financial point of view, the centre is anything but exemplary. The initial estimate in 2017 was that the centre would cost €70 million to construct, a figure that was soon revised to €90 million. the final expenditure was €188 million. It is not just the Olympic aquatic centre

Gavin Mortimer

Enforce the borders, stop the boats, save lives

Rishi Sunak has failed in his pledge to ‘Stop the Boats’, and the £480 million deal he signed with France in March is nothing more than a gargantuan waste of money. In fact, the French have intercepted fewer migrants in the Channel this year than they did in 2022. If the Prime Minister is truly committed to stopping the boats he must look to Australia and not France for inspiration. It is ten years this summer since Australia solved its own small boat problem. It did so with determination, courage and a refusal to be cowed by howls of outrage from those who champion a borderless world.  The people smugglers will be

John Keiger

The French riots threaten the state’s very existence

How dangerous are riots to the very existence of the French state? Most commentators avoid the question and concentrate on causes. The more whimsical attribute cause to that clichéd French historical reflex of insurrection; the sociologists to poverty and discrimination in the banlieues (suburbs); the far-left to French institutional racism and right-wing policies; conservative politicians to excess immigration, the ghettoization of France and the state’s retreat from enforcing law and order. But a growing chorus now evokes an unmentionable potential consequence: civil war. Of most concern is that those voices include groups with first-hand knowledge of the state of the country: the police, the army, domestic intelligence. On Friday, following three days

Gavin Mortimer

Is Macron heading for his Margaret Thatcher moment?

There was a sense of foreboding in France at the start of this week. After the anarchy of last Thursday and the extraordinary violence in western France on Saturday, where radical environmentalists fought a pitched battle with police, what would the next seven days bring?  Much of the media speculated that the 10th day of action organised by unions in protest at the government’s pension reform bill would result in the sort of scenes witnessed across France five days earlier, with city halls torched, shops sacked and police stations attacked. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing La France Insoumise, was accused by the government on Monday of tacitly encouraging the

Gavin Mortimer

Can Macron get through the day without insulting the Brits? 

The editorial in today’s Le Figaro heralds the dawn of a 21st century Entente Cordiale and the newspaper carries an interview with Rishi Sunak. Speaking ahead of today’s Anglo-French summit in Paris, Sunak says he wants to ‘open a new chapter with France’.   Le Figaro pins the blame for the deterioration in relations between the two countries since the last summit in 2018 on the British, specifically Boris Johnson and his ‘anti-French populism’. The French believe that is now a thing of the past with Sunak in No. 10. This conveniently overlooks the fact that if Johnson was the bête noire of the French, Emmanuel Macron hasn’t exactly been the most diplomatic