All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
In the unlikely event of Martin McGuinness becoming President of the Republic of Ireland, this would surely be the Irish equivalent of Air Force One. It’s also basically how Sinn Fein/IRA hope voters will mark their ballots… [Hat-tip: David Cochrane of Politics.ie]
It’s difficult for the outside world to understand the huge significance that Gilad Shalit’s release, this morning, has for Israel. A soldier captured by Hamas five years ago, he has become a huge cause célèbre — to the extent that black cabs in London were even commissioned with his picture on it. Books that he wrote aged 11 were printed and bought in their thousands by Israelis. He was wanted back so badly that Israel has agreed to release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, among them hardcore terrorists. Events stemming from the Arab Spring have made both sides eager to do a deal, which experts say might contribute — even if in
A flurry of news yesterday evening, among it Slovakia’s rejection of the euro bailout and even more ado about our Defence Secretary. But nothing nearly as striking as the alleged Iranian plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington. Drugs, money, geopolitics, potential mass slaughter — this is a web of the most tangled and terrifying kind. And, according to US officials, it all leads back to Tehran. Assuming that that’s the case, there can few more alarming reminders of the threat posed by Iran. Here is a regime that is bent on terror and destabilisation — and bent, also, on acquiring a nuclear weapon. Little wonder why politicians from
UPDATE: Strathclyde Police have responded to all this and their version of events is quite different. So much so, in fact, that they dispute every aspect of what’s related here. Hark at this terrorist threat! The photograph above was taken by Chris White at Braehead shopping centre near Glasgow last Friday. It may look an innocent family snap to you because, well, that’s what it is and that’s his daughter in the picture. But that reckons without the blessed vigilance of the staff at this retail-hellhole who, wisely, considered Mr White a threat and duly called in Strathclyde police. The police duly hassled Mr White, reminding him that they were
Since I’ve always thought Shaun Woodward a nasty little toad it’s reassuring to discover the man will do nothing to earn a reassessment. Is anyone surprised he is entirely relaxed about Martin McGuinness’s campaign for the Irish presidency? Of course not. why would ayone be surprised? As the dreadful Woodward made clear, speaking at a fringe event at the Labour conference, McGuinness’s campaign is in some sense the next step in the “peace process”. Yes, really, Martin McGuinness, mass murderer, is a “fit and proper” person to be Head of State. According to Woodward: But what I can do as a fellow-member of the [Labour] race and somebody who was
US-Pakistani relations will deteriorate even further following today’s claims by Admiral Mike Mullen, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the Pakistani ISI aided and abetted the attack on the US embassy in Kabul. Mullen told a Senate panel that, “With ISI support, Haqqani operatives planned and conducted a truck bomb attack, as well as the assault on our embassy.” This charge was part of broader criticism of what Washington sees as Pakistan’s strategy of exporting its internal problems. Mullen summed up his concerns thus: “In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan – and most especially the Pakistani Army
From the Department of Irony Overload: Congressman Peter King says he admires the United Kingdom’s counter-terrorism efforts: King also praised the United Kingdom’s government for its work on stemming Muslim radicalization, noting that its “Prevent” strategy “offers a candid assessment of the problem and a model for effectively addressing and countering this problem.” The Prevent strategy is one part of the UK’s Home Office counterterrorism program, and focuses on preventative measures to stop people becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism. Better late than never, I suppose and even a sinner such as Congressman King may be permitted a moment of repentance and all that. Still, the gall and the irony and
After all the nerves and security in New York, Washington and London, the only attempted terror plot on the anniversary of 9/11 appears to have been foiled outside an arts centre in Gothenburg. The Swedish press says that the four people arrested on Saturday night are believed to belong to a cell linked to al-Qaeda. There are no more details yet, but it’s a reminder that the al-Qaeda threat has not gone away. Its Arabian Peninsular division is still active, responsible for the underpants bomber and the bomb bound for Detroit, intercepted in London. This is also a reminder of how chillingly random its attacks are. This matters because there
Today marks the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. Here is the article Matthew Bishop wrote for The Spectator in response: Spirit of the Blitz, Matthew Bishop, 15 September 2001 New York People walk a lot in Manhattan. Its streets are always crowded. But never before like this. An hour after the attack on the World Trade Center, thousands of New Yorkers – refugees in business attire – trudged north as downtown evacuated. Many were covered from head to toe in white ash. Most walked in silence, contemplating the fact that somebody they know is probably dead, and that in the next 24 hours they will
New York There’s an eerie mood in New York right now, as the city prepares to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Al-Qaeda, or what’s left of it, likes anniversaries. The police have been on overdrive ever since a “credible” tip-off about an attempted truck bomb. Officers are everywhere. Armed guards patrol landmarks and cars from bridges and tunnels are being pulled over and checked. All this reinforces the sense of something alien to New Yorkers (and almost all Americans) until ten years ago: the threat of attack. A common threat has solicited a rather wonderful common response. Shop windows have displays of commemoration; companies take adverts
A telling admission from Janet Napolitano, heid-bummer at the ludicrous (though founded for obvious, understandable reasons) Department of Homeland Security: “We are moving towards an intelligence and risk-based approach to how we screen [people at airports],” Napolitano told Mike Allen during a morning forum at the Newseum. “I think one of the first things you will see over time is the ability to keep your shoes on. One of the last things you will [see] is the reduction or limitation on liquids.” In other words, current policy has nothing to do with intelligence or risk and is, by the US government’s own admission, stupid. And, this being government it is
This Sunday marks the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. Here is the article Stephen Glover wrote for The Spectator in response: “The terrorists want us to believe the world has ended. We must not fall into their trap.”, Stephen Glover, 15 September 2001 As those who are old enough remember what they were doing when President Kennedy was shot, so we will all recall what we were doing when we heard about the attack on New York. I was reading the controversial new book about Tina Brown and Harry Evans, which I had planned to write about for this column. Then my elder son rang
“They’ll like us when we win,” the West Wing’s Toby Ziegler said of the Arab world. David Cameron might have said the same when public opinion was turning against the intervention in Libya. And, judging by today’s YouGov poll, he’d have been right. Public support for military intervention has mirrored the public’s view of how well the action is going. In the first two weeks, when optimism prevailed, the public were largely in favour. However, as that optimism wore off and people increasingly doubted that the rebels could succeed, more and more began to oppose our involvement. Before the weekend, just 26 per cent thought the intervention was going well,
The escalating crisis in Gaza and Sinai is worrying. Egypt is to recall its ambassador to Israel after 3 security personnel were killed in confused scuffles after an Israeli bus was bombed near the Sinai border; the Israeli embassy in Cairo has also been the scene of ill-tempered demonstrations and vandalism. Israel denies responsibility for the three deaths. Meanwhile, the Egyptian army is also conducting operations against Islamist militants in the increasingly lawless Sinai desert. Finally, the Arab League has called an emergency meeting after Israel retaliated to 30 rocket attacks by launching stiff operations in Gaza. This latest smattering of violence will be of great concern to friends of
Even after 10 years, Afghanistan still has the capacity to shock. Details of the attack on Kabul are vague, but it seems that a posse of Taliban fighters dressed in “military garb” walked into the offices of the British Council and the United Nations; three people were killed in the ensuing explosions and fire-fights between security forces and insurgents. As I write, reports suggest that one Islamist is still alive and shooting in the British Council, while other explosions have been heard across the capital this morning. Taliban spokesmen have confirmed that they had carried out the attack to mark the 92nd anniversary of Afghanistan’s independence from Britain. But they
Israeli politicians have been worrying that the Palestinians would join the protests sweeping the Middle East. So far, this has not happened. But now the Israeli leadership is facing something it probably never expected: an Israeli Spring. Tens of thousands of Israelis took to the streets last weekend to protest against the high cost of living and demand that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conduct extensive economic reforms. Over 150,000 people are thought to have demonstrated in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, Beersheba and six other cities in left-wing protests against housing policy, but which seem to be morphing into a broader political movement. The dissent began a few weeks ago when
There’s plenty to sate your thirst for politics in this week’s issue of The Spectator (out today, you can buy it here, etc.), not least Tim Montgomerie’s forceful cover article on how the Tory leadership has become detached from the wisdom of ordinary Conservatives. Here, though, is Douglas Murray’s essay on the psychosis of Anders Behring Breivik, and whether the right has a case to answer for his crimes: Anders Behring Breivik believed himself a Knight Templar and awarded himself various military ranks accordingly. He also believed that he and other self-described racists had common cause with jihadis and that the USA has a Jewish problem. So even before he
A reportedly enormous bomb blast has shaken the PM’s office and the oil ministry in Oslo, the Norwegian police confirm. Reports have confirmed that the Norwegian Prime Minister is safe, but it’s not clear if he’s un-injured. Early reports suggested that this might be a gas explosion, but those were discounted because there is no mains gas supply in Oslo. Norway’s state broadcaster has confirmed that one person has died, with more than 8 injured. Fortunately, it is the height of Norway’s holiday season and there were few people about. The Norwegian police, however, warn that there are other casualties being treated. Details remain vague. There also appears to have been at least one
The phone hacking saga is now moving at such pace it threatens to engulf the political establishment (whether it is a sufficiently serious story to do so is another matter). After Sir Paul Stephenson’s theatrical resignation, timed to upset newspaper deadlines and plotted to embarrass the Prime Minister, attention has now turned to John Yates. Boris Johnson has said that Yates has ‘questions to answer’; and Brian Paddick argues that Yates should fall on his sword too. The Metropolitan Police Standards Committee meets this morning, and, as Laura Kuenssberg notes, it may discuss John Yates’ conduct. Yates’ defence (that he was overseeing 20 terror cases at the same time as
Yesterday, Andrew Mitchell was the toast of the broadcasters. They have turned on him to an extent today. The news that portions of the £52.25 million given in emergency aid to the starving masses in the Horn of Africa will be distributed in areas controlled by al-Shabaab has forced Mitchell onto the defensive. “We shall have no dealings with al-Shabaab,” he said, and then added that the aid will reach its intended recipients by means other than collusion with the jihadists. This is an embarrassing moment for Mitchell and, of course, it is vital that money and supplies do not fall into the hands of well-fed fighters. However, it is
The reputation of the police may be as black as mud at the moment, but the Met has a chance to atone during the Olympics. Security forces have been making their preparations as the Olympic construction site nears completion. In May, police officers, counter-intelligence officials and the emergency services conducted their first major security exercise. Further stress tests are being undertaken on local transport routes and waterways. And permanent surveillance of Olympic venues is being established; in future, visitors to these sites will be subject to airport-style security and a number of armed officers will patrol the area. Nothing, it seems, is being left to chance. These operations are being
The US-Pakistani relationship is fast deteriorating. In May, I argued that unless President Asif Ali Zardari took decisive action against the ISI, the country’s military would continue to undermine relations with the West. Last week, the New York Times reached the same conclusion, calling for the removal of Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha. As President Zardari did nothing — probably fearing a military coup if he did act — the situation has merely been aggravated. What’s more, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that the US could suspend military aid to Pakistan unless it took unspecified steps to help find and fight terrorists. And the White House has since confirmed
In a post over at the Staggers, defence and security expert Matt Cavanagh has compared and contrasted Barack Obama’s review of US counter-terrorism policy and the coalition’s recent update of the Prevent strategy, together with David Cameron’s professed ‘muscular liberalism’. Here are his insights: ‘The new (American) strategy contains a fairly detailed discussion of the Arab Spring, arguing for applying “targeted force on Al Qaida at a time when its ideology is under extreme pressure” from events in North Africa and the Middle East. By contrast, Britain’s revised Prevent strategy published three weeks ago, mentions these events only once – in a footnote, saying with characteristic bureaucratic obtuseness that it’s
The PSNI is clear that last night’s riots on Castlereagh Street, East Belfast, were not linked to sectarian paramilitary activity. Rather, this was a ‘spontaneous demonstration’ against the police. As I wrote last week, gangs on both sides of the Ulster divide have been targeting the police in recent months; and they rely on exploiting current economic hardship and ancient sectarian divisions to further their criminal ends. The continued violence is a test of Stormont’s ability to govern without the close supervision from Westminster. It’ll be interesting to see how the authorities, and Peter Robinson and Martin McGuiness in particular, respond in the coming weeks, recognising that this violence does
On Monday, James drew attention to Dexter Filkins’ stark assessment of the situation in Afghanstan and of the strength of the Taliban. Today, the attack on a hotel in Kabul gives that assessment a fresh and tragic resonance. What we seem to be witnessing is the Taliban, or at least elements of them, flaunting their murderous intent as the West prepares to leave the country. From the assassination of General Daud to this Mumbai-style raid, their methods are becoming more ambitious, more headline-grabbing. Around ten innocents are said to have been killed this time around, along with six to seven of the Islamist militiamen. Every death, of course, raises doubts
Dexter Filkins is one of the great war correspondents of the post 9/11 world. So it is particularly sobering to read his assessment of the Afghan situation as the West prepares to drawdown. Filkins reports that: “According to American officers, the level of violence in Afghanistan this year is fifteen per cent higher than it was at this time last year. The insurgents, far from being degraded, appear to be as resilient as ever. And their sanctuaries in Pakistan, where the Taliban leadership resides mostly unmolested, remain more or less intact.” Compounding this problem is that the levels of corruption in the Afghan government are continuing to alienate the population.
There are, as the old adage goes, “lies, damned lies and statistics”. I’m beginning to think the same about polls. Take the polls that Britons are not as keen on overseas aid as the Prime Minister. Some of the headlines attached to them are prone to exaggeration. For example, on the back of the poll, the Mail claimed that “one in four people say they will no longer give money to charities such as Oxfam and Save the Children.” People may say that but they don’t seem to mean it. For it turns out that the British public has actually increased its giving to Save the Children by nearly 10 per
I live three miles away from where the rioting was happening in East Belfast last night, and heard the helicopters whirring overhead. It was the kind of sound that anyone living in the city hoped never to hear again. As a child, I’d lie in bed and hear bombs and sirens and helicopters — and we had all hoped that dark chapter had been closed. A tipping point of violence has now been reached. A press photographer has been shot, another given a fractured skull after a second night of riots. And in the aftermath, the blame game cacophony begins: Who started it? It was them. No it was them
It is as Matt Cavanagh predicted in his article for Coffee House, a few weeks ago. Barack Obama has decided to pull 10,000 of the 30,000 American “surge” troops out of Afghanistan this year. The remaining 20,000 will be outtathere by next summer. “Drawdown,” is the word that the US President used in his address last night, and it is happening at quite a pace. He presented this approach as a victory, suggesting that America has already achieved most of its goals in the country, and that “the tide of war is receding”. But there were one or two revealing notes of concession. “We will not try to make Afghanistan
Andrew Mitchell was recently informed that the public is split 50:50 for and against increasing the international aid budget to £12 billion in 2013. A YouGov@Cambridge poll for Politics Home suggests that he should get some better advice. The poll shows that while the public is indeed split fairly evenly on the general principle of aid (41 per cent in favour, 38 per cent against), when it comes to the government’s promise to increase the aid budget by a third, those against outnumber those for by more than 2 to 1. The policy is by no means a Cameroon brainchild. In 1970 the United Nations set the target for government
Just as any major employer would, al-Qaeda released a statement earlier to confirm the identity of its new boss. “Sheikh Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, may God guide him,” it read, “assumed responsibility as the group’s amir.” And just in case you were wondering whether the organisation’s attitude would change with its leadership, it added: “We ask God for this to be a new era for al-Qaeda under the leadership of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an era that will purify Muslim land of every tyrant and infidel.” Which is to say: new leader, same danger. The appointment of Zawahiri comes as little surprise, even if there has been talk of divide and dissent within
Since last week’s attack on Yemen’s President Saleh and his subsequent flight, Sana’a has been on the cusp of anarchy. Perhaps as many 400 people were killed in riots last week and the killing continues. Western diplomatic services fear for the safety of their citizens in Yemen. The MoD has been preparing contingencies. Forces and materiel deployed in the Libya are moving east. Two fleet auxiliary ships, equipped with helicopters and landing craft, and 80 Royal Marines have been stationed off the Yemeni coast. Should the 800 or so British nationals in Yemen need to be evacuated, the marines will secure a bridgehead. A further detachment, currently on exercises in
If the counter-terrorism strategy the government is announcing today is to succeed, it will have to overcome bureaucratic opposition and institutional inertia. As Dean Godson writes in The Times today (£), senior civil servants in the Office of Security and Counter-Terrorism are highly reluctant to accept the government’s new, more muscular approach to this issue and will go back to the old, failed way of doing things if given the chance. If the Prime Minister’s writ is going to run across government on this issue, he is going to need someone working from the centre with Cameron’s explicit backing whose sole role is to supervise the implementation of the policy
The Libya intervention has been in operation for a few months and the rebels have been making gains, most recently in Yafran. But progress remains slow and perhaps it is time to look again at how the lessons of Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan might have a bearing on Libya. The first lesson is simple: assume the worst. If you think that a regime will collapse quickly, plan for it to last a long time. If you expect a peaceful transition, plan for a violent one. And if you hope that unarmed monitors will be enough once hostilities are over, prepare for a well-armed peacekeeping force to be deployed. Optimistic predictions