Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

James Forsyth

Counter-terrorism means stopping dealings with extremists

The coalition’s counter-terrorism strategy will be published tomorrow. This rather delayed review has been the subject of some semi-public wrangling, Cameron and Clegg have given speeches setting out very different visions for it. But one thing to remember is that the test of the review’s robustness isn’t just whether it stops government money going to extremists groups. It also has to lead to government, at all levels, stopping dealings with these groups, denying them the oxygen of recognition. Today’s Telegraph notes that 20 groups will lose their funding because the views they espouse are antithetical to British values. This is to be welcomed. But it won’t have much of an

Trouble in Golan

In a clear move to distract attention from his own problems, Syrian president Bashir Assad has allowed people to march from the Syrian border toward the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, in the hope it will lead to a violent reaction from the Israelis. It did. Israeli forces opened fire on the people, wounding several. There are reports of at least four people killed and 13 wounded but these have not been verified. There can be no doubt that the incursion is part of a Syrian plan. The protests coincide with the 44th anniversary of the Six-Day War, when Israel captured the Golan from Syria, as well as the West Bank and

So long, Saleh?

The Middle Eastern merry-go-round takes another turn with the news that President Ali Abdullah Saleh has fled to Saudi Arabia. He has been promising to depart his role, if not his country, for some time now — but the wounds he allegedly sustained after an attack on his compound may have forced the issue. There’s always the possibility that he could return to Yemen after his treatment across the border, although it’s an unlikely prospect. The Saudis have already gone out of their way by granting this brutal dicatator some degree of clemency, without foisting him back upon his country. And Saleh will already have lost power and influence by

James Forsyth

Obama re-affirms the special relationship

The speech was not a classic but Barack Obama’s address to both Houses of Parliament covered the bases today. He started with a winning line, remarking that the previous three speakers in Westminster Hall had been the Pope, the Queen and Nelson Mandela which is either “a very high bar or the beginning of a very funny joke.”   As is traditional in these kinds of speeches, Obama paid tribute to the special relationship, lauding it as the embodiment of the values and beliefs of the English-speaking tradition. He went on to say that both the British and the Americans knew that the “longing for human dignity is universal.” Indeed,

From the archives: The Good Friday Agreement

On Sunday, it will be thirteen years to the day since the people of Northern Ireland voted in a referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. The result was one of overwhelming support: 71 per cent to 29. Here is Bruce Anderson’s take on the Agreement from his Politics column at the time:   Mr Blair was rough on Mr Ahern (and while Unionists were there), Bruce Anderson, The Spectator, 18 April 1998   Occasionally, one is glad to be wrong. In this column last week, I wrote about the imminent collapse of the Ulster peace process. It seemed then as if everything was unravelling; the gaps between the various sides

When Dublin trembled

On 17 May 1974 — 37 years ago today — I was a 19-year-old student at Trinity College Dublin, celebrating the end of term in the Pavilion Bar near the sports fields. The summer exams were still to come, but we were carefree; the main subject of conversation was whether we could organise a disco party later on. Then, a little after 5.30 p.m., everything changed. First, all about us seemed to shiver, as if there were an earth tremor. Then, just as it occurred to me that Dublin did not generally suffer tectonic stress, there was a deafening bang that seemed to go on for an age. Somebody shouted:

An historic moment

There is something incredibly resonant about the images of the Queen arriving in the Republic of Ireland this afternoon. You have probably heard the facts by now — that she is the first British monarch to do so for 100 years, and the first since Irish independence — but they are no less striking. Against a backdrop of terror threats and of Britain’s participation in the country’s bailout, Queen Elizabeth II is making some kind of history today. It is also, as Ed West says in a thoughtful post over at the Telegraph, a time for remembrance. He suggests that we remember the 300,000 Irishmen who fought in the Great

James Forsyth

The threat of Republican terror

The Metropolitan Police has released a statement saying that they have received a bomb threat for central London today from dissident Irish Republicans. There’s no information on where in the capital or what time today the warning relates to.   The threat, for which the spurious attempt at justification is presumably related to the Queen’s visit to Ireland tomorrow, may well be a hoax. But if it is real, it would attest to the growing reach of dissident Republicans whose previous operations have been confined to Northern Ireland itself. (The best book on dissident Republicanism is Legion of the Rearguard by occasional Coffee House contributor Martyn Frampton).   If a

The ISI chief must be sacked

The US-Pakistani relationship has always been fraught, but it is particularly fractious right now. It is highly likely that the US will conduct more Abbottabad-type raids following the killing of Osama Bin Laden. According to sources in the US government, several locations were under surveillance alongside Bin Laden’s compound. And that was before the CIA snatched the “motherlode” of information from the Bin Laden raid, which will give hundreds of new leads. People like Ayman al Zawahiri, Abu Yahya al Libi, and Saif al Adel will be sleeping a little less soundly these days. Regrettably, the Pakistani government has done little to prepare its population for the likelihood of new

Bin Laden strikes from beyond the grave

And so it starts. The news that suicide bombers have attacked the military base at Shabqadar, northern Pakistan, sounds a chilling note. The Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attacks, committed in retaliation for the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Security experts and politicians warned that it would be so. It is, we are told, inevitable that similar atrocities will be attempted closer to home. There will also be concern that this may aggravate the already strained relations between the US and Pakistan, which would only strengthen the terrorists. Perhaps Bin Laden has become a more potent force since his death. The sight of a squalid man sitting in

Osama bin Laden at home

They may be mostly silent, and their content is rather mundane, but the five Osama bin Laden “home videos” released by the Pentagon today are still some of the most astonishing documents to emerge during the past week. The deceased al-Qaeda leader is shown watching himself on television; preparing his ranting-head diatribes against America and the West; and even with his greying beard dyed black all over. You can watch the full selection, with Al Jazeera commentary, above.

Alex Massie

Osama bin Laden Was Not America’s Useful Enemy

The Guardian is a great newspaper but, lord, does it ever print some claptrap. Via Messrs Geras and Worstall comes this dreadful piece by Adam Curtis. The headline, for which Mr Curtis is not responsible, is a warning of the nonsense to come: For 10 years, Osama bin Laden filled a gap left by the Soviet Union. Who will be the baddie now? From the off we’re supposed to appreciate, I think, that bad as bin Laden certainly was, he was never as bad as you were led to believe and, gosh, certainly not as bad as the people for whom he was a useful, even necessary, enemy. The world,

Fraser Nelson

After bin Laden

In this week’s Spectator, on sale today, we have an outstanding lineup on bin Laden’s death and its aftermath. I thought CoffeeHousers may be interested a preview of what’s in this week’s mag. Our lead feature is written by Christina Lamb of the Sunday Times: she has been writing about Pakistan for 24 years and is now based in Washington — so is ideally qualified to write about the changing relationship between the two countries. Bin Laden’s urban lair fits a trend, she says: other jihadis have been found in similar urban compounds near the Pakistan military. The country is playing a double game, she says. Dana Rohrbacher, a Republican

Alex Massie

Stray Thoughts on the Execution of Osama bin Laden

Just as it’s difficult for death penalty opponents to be too upset by the verdicts of the Nuremberg tribunal, so it is hard to be upset by the assassination (let us not be coy) of Osama bin Laden. Nevertheless, it seems increasingly probable that al-Qaeda’s titular leader was executed “after” a firefight not, rather tellingly, “during” a firefight. Capturing him was never an option. It’s easy to understand why this “clean” end was preferable to capturing bin Laden with all the awkward questions about interrogation and trials and due process and torture and everything else that would have followed. Too much trouble. For everyone. That too is part of George

CIA director blasts Pakistan’s intelligence service

“It was decided that any effort to work with the Pakistanis could jeopardise the mission. They might alert the targets.” There have been few blunter, nor more high-profile, condemnations of Pakistan’s intelligence operation than that made by Leon Panetta, the CIA chief, in interview with Time magazine today. And there are plenty of other noteworthy nuggets in the article as well: among them, Panetta’s claim that the US has seized an “impressive amount” of raw intel from Bin Laden’s compound. And how about this: “Intelligence reporting suggests that one of bin Laden’s wives who survived the attack has said the family had been living at the compound since 2005, a

Pakistan responds

The covers of our newspapers are emblazoned with Bin Laden this morning — but it is an article in a US newspaper that really catches the eye. Pakistan’s President, Asif Ali Zardari, has written an op-ed for the Washington Post that defends his country’s role in the struggle against Al-Qaeda. It’s a defence that has four components. 1) Sympathy: “Pakistan … joins the other targets of al-Qaeda in our satisfaction that the source of the greatest evil of the new millennium has been silenced.” 2) Credit-sharing: “We in Pakistan take some satisfaction that our early assistance in identifying an al-Qaeda courier ultimately led to this day.” 3) Defiance: “Pakistan has

Bin Laden died in Cairo<br />

The world’s most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden, was shot Sunday morning in Pakistan by US special forces. But in reality he had died months ago. On the 25 of January 2011 to be exact. Or that is at least when Bin Laden’s power ended. For on that day millions of protesters — predominantly young Muslims — took to the streets of Cairo and demanded the overthrow of the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and succeeded. With this act, they gave, for the first time since 9/1 and arguably for three decades, the Muslim world a more easily-understood and persuasive narrative than the one of anti-US resistance Al Qaeda

James Forsyth

How the US pulled it off

The veil is being pulled back on how the United States tracked down and killed Osama Bin Laden. The New York Times reveals that the intelligence trail started with information obtained from a Guantanamo Bay detainee about the courier that Bin Laden used to pass and receive messages to the outside world. This is proof that the public debate about the utility of Guantanamo is far too glib. This courier was then tracked down last August to the compound, in Abbottabad which was so secure and grand that the Americans realised that it could well be Bin Laden’s hide-out. These suspicions were reinforced when it became clear that this million

Goldstone recants

Judge Richard Goldstone has changed his mind. Writing in the Washington Post, he admits that his “fact-finding mission had no evidence” for key allegations made in the UN report into the Gaza war that bears his name, including the claim that Israel intentionally targeted civilians “as a matter of policy.” Wow! That’s the only possible reaction. The Goldstone report, released on September 15, 2009, concluded that both Israel and Hamas had committed war crimes by intentionally targeting civilians. The committee did not receive information from Israel that would have contradicted these conclusions because the Israeli government refused to cooperate with members of the fact-finding mission. Now the South African jurist

Burying the dead

Lockerbie is back in vogue. The Telegraph reports that Mi5 has ‘conclusive evidence’ that Moussa Koussa was ‘directing operational and intelligence gathering activities against Libyan dissidents’ and organising support for terror groups. Koussa is expected to meet with Scottish prosecutors later this week to discuss the Lockerbie bombing. Also, the Libyan rebels have pledged to assist British security services investigate Gaddafi’s sponsorship of terrorism, particularly the IRA. Anything that brings Gaddafi and his most murderous henchmen to justice will give solace to victims. But no amount of water can wash away the grubby circumstances of al-Megrahi’s release. The subtle influence of the government on the Scottish authorities has been covered

Alex Massie

Obama’s Guantanamo Failure

The decision, announced yesterday, that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will not stand trial in New York or any other corner of the United States hardly came as a surprise. He will be tried before a military tribunal at Guantanamo Bay instead. The Obama administration gave up fighting for its own policy a long time ago. Sometimes retreats are sensible. Sometimes it’s necessary to acknowledge blunders or superior firepower. But even allowing for those considerations – and a Congress* more than happy to demagogue the issue – there’s a tinge of shame to this retreat. Power need not corrupt but it always changes those who hold it. Obama’s approach to terrorism and

Is al Qaeda in Libya?

This is one of the key questions about the Libya intervention. The Libyan Fighting Islamic Group was once one of the largest jihadist groups in the world and many Libyans fought in Iraq. So the fear of al Qaeda’s presence in Libya is well-founded. The terrorist network certainly appears to be trying to associate itself with the rebellion, much as the Muslim Brotherhood tried to exploit events at Tahrir Square. But there is very little evidence to fuel concern about Al Qaeda, except for a quote from Admiral James Stavridis, who said that there had been “flickers in the intelligence of potential al Qaeda” and “Hizbollah” involvement. Notice the word

Northern Ireland unites, sort of

A man hunt is underway for the perpetrators of yesterday’s murder in Omagh, and the administration at Stormont and the PSNI have presented a united front against antediluvian dissidence. Meanwhile, Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister, is accused by groups associated with the DUP and the Traditional Unionist Voice of having attended an illegal march commemorating the IRA last October. Sectarianism is still rife.

Desperate rearguard

The murder of a police officer in Northern Ireland once again proves that the threat from dissident republican terrorism remains only too real. This latest attack comes against a background of various attempted bombings and hoax alerts that have disrupted life in the province. Back in January, a sophisticated “double-tap” bomb attack on a police patrol in north Belfast was only narrowly averted. Since then a series of incidents have occurred in Derry, Belfast and Fermanagh. Going back further, the last two years (since the triple murder of March 2009) have seen the bombing of banks, courthouses, police stations and even MI5’s regional headquarters in Northern Ireland. Just over fourteen

BREAKING: Car bomb explodes in Omagh, County Tyrone

Not clear as yet if there have been any casaulties. More to follow. Reports are sketchy, but it seems that the blast took place in a residential road, away from the crowded central shopping areas that were the scene of the bloody atrocity committed 13 years ago.  The bomb was planted underneath the car of a local Catholic PSNI officer .The officer is critically wounded.  This act is very likely to have been perpetrated by extreme Republican dissidents; and it follows a trend of Republican/gang violence against police in the province, a battle for which London and Stormont allocated more than £240 million last month. UPDATE: DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson reports that the

The government should acknowledge Israeli restraint

With NATO planes circling above Libya, Saudi troops quashing protests in Bahrain, and troops killing civilians in Syria and Yemen, there has been little attention paid to Israel. But Israel has recently been the victim of a series of violent attacks. More than 30 people were injured in a bombing in Jerusalem, and Islamic Jihad’s military wing, the Al-Quds Brigade, has fired mortars and rockets into Israel for days on end. The attacks suggest that Hamas is, once again, struggling to rein in other terrorist groups like Islamic Jihad. Some IDF commanders fear a descent into chaos in Gaza. In the face of the onslaught, however, the Israeli government has

The Yemeni domino totters

Call it the domino effect, if you like. After Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, Yemen is the latest country to drag its rulers to the precipice — and it could push them over, too. The latest news is that several Yemeni generals have joined the protesters in calling on President Saleh to stand down. One source tells al-Jazeera that 90 per cent of the army could do likewise by this evening. The broad consensus is that the current regime is wheezing to a close. So what next? From this vantage point, Yemen is certainly one of those countries where change should be greeted warily. It’s not so much the emerging prospect

Gaddafi defiant as the international coalition prepares his noose

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJl8s8DSYvQ The fog of war lies thick in Benghazi this morning. There are reported explosions and gunfire and Sky News is showing footage of a Soviet-era fighter jet combusting in mid-air over the city; it is not clear if the aircraft was the victim of anti-aircraft fire, air-to-air combat or technical malfunction. Equally, it is unclear if the international coalition’s campaign has begun – leaders will meet in Paris today to finalise diplomatic agreements before mobilisation, but defence analysts say that French and Italian aircraft could already be patrolling Libyan skies.      The Gaddafi regime has been typically deranged in response. Some ministers insist that the ceasefire is real; Gaddafi on the

If we don’t help the Libyan rebels, then the extremists might

The West’s indifference towards Libya may create the very conditions for extremism that we normally seek to avoid. In today’s Times, the war correspondent Anthony Loyd writes (£) from Benghazi about the dangers of an extremist backlash as the pro-democracy forces become disillusioned with the West: “The growing suspicion and anger towards the West offers an unsettling glimpse of the direction that the country’s revolution may take.” This has several potential implications inside and outside Libya. Outside the country, it could provide an opportunity for Osama bin Laden — who has been otherwise marginalised, following the protests in Tunisia and Egypt — to argue that the West’s inaction, and even

James Forsyth

Cameron’s call to the White House

David Cameron’s statement on Libya today reflected his growing frustration at the pace at which the wheels of diplomacy are moving on this issue. In his statement, Cameron warned that ‘time is of essence’ and that Gaddafi staying in power, something Cameron had previously called ‘unthinkable’, would send a ‘dreadful signal’. Time, really, is of the essence. If we don’t see movement in the next few days, it seems almost inevitable that Gaddafi will crush the revolt. One of the things that Cameron stressed is that Gaddafi continuing in power would be more than a moral and humanitarian disaster. As he warned, ‘a pariah state on Europe’s southern border’ would

The coming war with Libya

If the West is not ready to intervene decisively against Colonel Ghadaffi, it needs to get ready for a post-revolutionary Libya, where the dictator and his bloodthirsty family seek revenge on pro-democracy activists and countries like Britain. Think of Ghadaffi’s previous record: the Lockerbie bombing, targeted assassinations like in the 1970s, and attacks on US soldiers in Germany. Libya could in future represent a threat to Britain akin to al Qaeda. So, the British government needs to think how it will deal with Ghadaffi MK II. Its policy should draw on past examples of containment and isolation. Libya’s neighbours will have to be incentivised to bolster European – and especially Italian

James Forsyth

A reminder that the Iranian threat hasn’t gone away

Today’s news that Nato has intercepted an Iranian weapons shipment to the Taliban shows the threat Iran poses to international order and just how dangerous it would be for this regime to develop a nuclear capability. The shipment means that the regime, or at least part of it, wishes to assist those who want to kill Western troops and will back the forces of instability in the world. William Hague has released a statement calling Iran’s behaviour ‘completely unacceptable.’ But it is not clear what options Nato has beyond complaining about Iran’s actions. Any attempts to disrupt these supply routes on the other side of the border would be extremely

A landmark judgment for the security services on torture

The Court of Appeal made a momentous judgment this afternoon. It was hearing the appeal of Rangzieb Ahmed, the first man to be convicted on terror-related charges in this country, for which he is serving 10 years. Ahmed’s appeal was based on the allegation that British security services had been complicit in his torture and that the evidence for his conviction, gained by Pakistan’s ISI, was obtained by a series of extreme measures culminating in the slow removal of his finger nails. The appeal judges rejected Ahmed’s suit, saying that there was no evidence that his nails had been pulled out or that British officers ordered beatings. Ahmed’s claims had

Alex Massie

Gerry Adams Redefines Terrorism

Gerry Adams, appearing on the Irish radio station Newstalk this afternoon, denounced the proposed Universal Social Charge (ie, tax) as being little more or less than “an act of gross terrorism”. He also complained that Micheal Martin’s suggestion that Adams’s past membership of the IRA might prove a problem for some voters was a “slur”. I suppose this is true since a slur is an insinuation or allegation that is likely to insult someone or damage their reputation. It does not, you will note, mean that the insinuation or allegation is untrue.