Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

James Forsyth

The Union needs balance

Today’s Guardian long-read on the Scottish referendum is a great piece of journalism. Both Alistair Darling and Danny Alexander argue in it that when David Cameron stepped out of Downing Street and announced his support for English votes for English laws he allowed the SNP to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, to argue that Scottish voters had been hoodwinked.   Now, to be sure, Alex Salmond make much of Cameron’s announcement. In his Spectator interview he says that it showed that Cameron thinks Scots ‘heads zipped up the back’ and that he didn’t get the enormity of what had just happened. But the idea that Cameron’s announcement alone,

Damian Thompson

Memo to the Scottish Catholic bishops: stop sucking up to the SNP

The Most Rev Philip Tartaglia, Catholic Archbishop of Glasgow, is at it again: There is a feeling around that we are in a special moment when we can shape a new Scotland. Our new First Minister, who is happily with us here this afternoon, has proposed a more consensual form of government, less partisan, less party-political, and less adversarial. I think everyone would welcome that … We are all equal in Scotland … all free to express our views and follow our consciences. The Archbishop was speaking earlier this month at an ecumenical service attended by Nicola Sturgeon. By all accounts she was pink with pleasure at his lavish tribute. But

Alex Massie

Who cares that Liz Lochhead has joined the SNP?

Is it acceptable for writers to sport their political allegiances publicly? In more sensible times you’d hardly need to consider the question since its answer would ordinarily be so bleedin’ obvious. These, of course, are neither sensible nor ordinary times. So it is with the fauxtroversy over whether or not it is acceptable – or, worse, appropriate – for Liz Lochhead to have joined the SNP.  This is a real thing, it seems and yet another example of how politics corrupts most things it touches. Lochhead, you see, is not just a poet she is Scotland’s Makar (or poet laureate) and therefore, god help us, it’s all very different. For some reason. People are

James Forsyth

The politician who can fill a venue quicker than Kylie

What’s the most significant political story of the week, Ukip winning Rochester or Emily Thornberry’s resignation? Well, I suspect, it might be neither of them and that the really big event this week happened north of the border, Nicola Sturgeon being sworn in as First Minister. For the new SNP leader is riding a quite remarkable wave of popularity. Right now, she’s addressing a rally at the Glasgow Hydro, a 12,000 seat venue that she sold out faster than Kylie Minogue—what other politician in Britain could hope to do that?   As I say in the column this week, what makes Sturgeon’s popularity all the more remarkable is that she

Alex Massie

Farewell Alex Salmond, hello Nicola Sturgeon

And so the Age of Nicola dawns. Elected First Minister by the Scottish Parliament yesterday; sworn in this morning. Taking First Minister’s Questions this afternoon. Alex Salmond’s departure was a long drawn-out affair but it will not take Nicola Sturgeon anything like as long to leave her own distinct impression on Scottish politics. I am not sure why folk at Westminster thought the referendum defeat would plunge the SNP into crisis. That might have been the case if the result had been 65-35 but that, despite what some thought, was never, ever, a likely outcome. Senior SNP strategists knew winning might be difficult but they also reckoned that anything above

Alex Massie

Scotland’s Neverendum begins and there’s nothing Unionists can do to stop it

Oh look, it’s a Neverendum. Who could have predicted that the SNP (and the wider Yes movement) would treat defeat in the independence referendum as just a temporary set-back? Well, some people did. Here’s a thing from April: 55-45 will now be reckoned a decent result [for Unionists] but it’s not an outcome that will settle the matter. Not even for a generation. Of course, during the campaign itself the Nationalists had to pretend that a No vote would put the question of independence to bed for a generation. They were kidding and anyone who chose to believe assurances that the SNP had no desire for a Neverendum is guilty

Alex Massie

Alex Salmond’s School of Denial

Alex Salmond is on his way out. The First Minister gives every impression of enjoying – or at least making the most of – his farewell tour. And why not? Far from weakening the SNP, defeat in September’s referendum has – at least for now – strengthened the party. Its supremacy is unchallenged and while recent polls putting the Nationalists on 50 percent of the vote are unlikely – surely! – to last forever this is the kind of problem worth having. Nevertheless, the First Minister’s final days in office have also reminded us that policy and, indeed, philosophy are not necessarily Salmond’s strengths. Unusually, First Minister’s Questions proved a

Alex Massie

Educational apartheid is Scotland’s greatest national disgrace

A while back I was speaking at one of those How did it all go so wrong? post-referendum discussions and, as expected, the air was thick with recrimination. The good people of Glasgow – rebranded as Yes City – were unhappy and indignant. Eventually, however, talk turned to what might be done next. I made the suggestion that, just perhaps, Scotland’s political and blethering classes might pay some attention to the powers the Scottish parliament currently enjoys. I mean, I said, it is not as though there are no big arguments to be had within the confines of Holyrood’s truncated responsibilities. Not as though there are no large problems that

Steerpike

Caption Ed Miliband and see Alex Salmond’s face in the Halloween pumpkins

Even the po-faced Associated Press (video above) couldn’t but describe as ‘toe-curling’ Ed Miliband’s encounter with a homeless hijabi. Pundits agree that Ed appeared ‘terrified’ of the beggar in Manchester. Mr S was there, however – on unrelated business, of course – and can confirm that the opposition leader really did only have 2p in his pocket at the time. (Why on earth would he carry more?) Your correspondent was otherwise engaged, however (in discussion with my equine consultant) in the moment this photo was snapped: What could have been on his mind? Or that of shadow transport secretery Mary Creagh, for that matter, as they headed into the Manchester town hall? The new Scottish

James Forsyth

Alex Salmond shows how the SNP will fight Labour in 2015

Talk to senior Labour figures about the polls that show them losing 30 or more seats in Scotland, and they say two things. The first is that these polls have been taken at the worst possible moment for them, just after the bitter resignation of the Scottish Labour leader. The second is that when it comes to a UK general election, Scottish voters will—however reluctantly—accept that it is a choice between Labour and the Tories.   But the aftermath of the referendum means that this second point will not apply as strongly as usual. Having campaigned together against independence, Labour and the Tories do not look as dramatically different as

Steerpike

Jim Murphy – is Scottish Labour dyeing?

While watching Scottish Labour leader frontrunner Jim Murphy launch his campaign today, you might be forgiven for thinking the teetotaller has been hitting the bottle. The bottle of hair dye, that is. There is a noticeable change in tone from when Murphy was a minister in the last Labour government. Mr S doubts that will be the only thing the former right-wing Blairite will be lightening in the coming weeks too.

James Forsyth

Scottish Labour is in crisis; is Jim Murphy the solution?

I suspect that the Scottish Labour gala dinner in Glasgow tonight won’t feel like much of a gala. The Scottish Labour party is in crisis: its leader has quit attacking the UK Labour party for treating it like a ‘branch office’ and now an Ipsos-Mori Westminster voting intention poll has the SNP on 52 per cent to Labour’s 23 per cent. This poll is a reminder of the scale of the challenge facing whoever is the new leader of the Scottish Labour party. I argue in the magazine this week  that Jim Murphy is, by a distance, the best candidate for the job. He has what Scottish Labour so desperately

Alex Massie

Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland

Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today’s Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time. It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don’t believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don’t believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don’t actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters. Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour’s support (amongst decided voters) at

Isabel Hardman

Meltdown! Shock poll puts Scottish Labour on 4 MPs and the SNP on 54

Just to make Scottish Labour’s misery complete – and underline the case for a bold leader who likes winning things – STV have published a poll by Ipsos Mori putting Ed Miliband’s party on just 23 per cent, which would see them losing all but four of their Scottish MPs, against 52 per cent support for the SNP, which would get 54 Westminster seats. The question was how would those surveyed vote if there were a general election tomorrow. The Scottish Conservatives would lose their one seat, with 10 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems would retain one with 6 per cent, while the Greens polled 6 per cent,

James Forsyth

Jim Murphy has what Scottish Labour needs: energy, fearlessness and the ability to win

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_30_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss Jim Murphy” startat=1010] Listen [/audioplayer]There should, by rights, have been a stampede of candidates to replace Johann Lamont as the leader of the Scottish Labour party. With the new powers promised to Holyrood, the Scottish First Minister promises to be a more powerful figure than most of the Cabinet. Only the holders of the great offices of state will be more influential than the occupant of Bute House. Labour might well trail the SNP by a large margin in the Holyrood polls, but their position is by no means hopeless. But since she decided to step down, there was silence. After days

Alex Massie

Jim Murphy is Scottish Labour’s only hope

At the risk of intruding into someone else’s calamity, if you can’t enjoy this what can you enjoy? By this I mean, of course, Scottish Labour’s meltdown. (Suggestions the party is not actually an iced lollipop should not be taken too seriously.) The thing to remember about Labour in Scotland is they’ve never been as popular as they like to think. They’ve only ever been the largest minority. A large and zombified minority, to be sure, but a minority nonetheless. They never – ever – spoke for a majority of Scots. They only claimed to. They still do. That’s the astonishing thing. They are the people’s army, the political will

Alex Massie

Alas, poor Johann Lamont: a symptom, not the cause, of Labour’s decline in Scotland

It was the wee things that did it. Things like vision, inspiration, confidence and all the other details that coalesce into that strange something called leadership. There are many types of leader and leadership is another of those things easier to see than define but all successful leaders share one essential quality: they can choose a hill and persuade their followers that’s the place they must die. Johann Lamont never had a hill. By the end she didn’t have much of an army either. Scottish Labour is a party suffering from some kind of political dementia right now. It kind of remembers being a contender and it still stands before

James Forsyth

A double strength headache for Miliband

Johann Lamont and Tony Blair don’t have much in common. But they are both causing Ed Miliband trouble this morning.   I suspect that those close to Miliband are relieved that Lamont has quit as the leader of the Scottish Labour party; his statement on her resignation last night was barely lukewarm. Certainly, the Miliband circle didn’t hold her in high regard and became despairing of her abilities during the referendum campaign. But what they won’t like is how she has taken a swing at them on the way out. She has lambasted Miliband’s office for treating Scottish Labour as ‘a branch office of a party based in London.’ These words will

Alex Massie

A federal UK? Home Rule all round? We have been here before.

There are fewer truly new things in politics than you think. The present constitutional uncertainty – which, it should be said, could scarcely have been avoided – is no exception. We have been here before, all of us, even if we choose to forget our previous gallops around this track. A century ago – on September 18th, to be precise – a bill for Irish Home Rule was finally passed. It had taken three attempts and nearly 30 years but it was passed at last. There would, once again, be an Irish parliament. Or there would have been had it not been for the Kaiser’s War. The guns of August

Keep calm and address Ebola: a brief history of pandemics at The Spectator

Ebola clinics in many parts of West Africa are full, so more and more people are being told to stay at home and take Paracetamol and fluids if they become infected. It means if someone in your family gets Ebola, you all have to stay in the house, which is effectively a death sentence. At the moment, the disease is killing 70 per cent of the people it infects, but that’s likely to go up. People who need other medical treatment can’t get it, and in Sierra Leone 40 per cent of farmland has been abandoned. Western governments are building secure military encampments for health workers, fearing civil unrest and

Alex Massie

I vow to thee, my Scotland, a small number of earthly things

Politics is a funny old game. I could have sworn the Yes campaign lost the Battle for Scotland in pretty decisive fashion last month. Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. It did not vote for something that might be reckoned some kind of Independence Within the United Kingdom for the very good reason that was not the question asked. The country may not have rejected independence – and endorsed the Union – overwhelmingly but it did do so decisively. But to hear SNP and Yes supporters speak these days you’d think nothing of the sort had happened at all. They lost the war but think they have a

Add to Miliband’s worries: Can Ukip go after Labour in Scotland?

Scottish Ukip MEP David Coburn has been shouting off, as his way, about his party’s prospects north of the border in 2015. Mr Coburn is a curious character – and there is a certainly an element of bluster here: ‘We’re looking at the Scottish rust belt. Seats where there were serious industries that were ­allowed to run down, with no replacement. These are seats that Labour has treated like a feudal system. It’s the Central Belt of Scotland, where people have just been abandoned or given sops to keep them happy.’ Whilst it should not be forgotten that Ukip gained 10 per cent of the Scottish vote in European elections

Damian Thompson

Ukip is a disaster for Labour. And then there’s Scotland…

Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I’m interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here’s something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum. The SNP won’t take safe Labour seats: they’re hugely behind – we’re talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner

Alex Massie

The Yes movement slowly moves through the Kubler-Ross stages of grief

No-one has died. No-one has been stabbed. Someone, I suppose, may have been punched. So let’s retain some sense of perspective as we consider and try to make sense of the last few days in Scotland. It is only day five. People deal with grief at different speeds. So, pace Ms Kubler-Ross, it shouldn’t be a surprise that many Yes voters are still in Denial. Many others have made it to Anger. Some have got as far as Bargaining. Most are certainly still in Depression. Only a few have reached Acceptance. True acceptance, I mean. There’s a lot of Yes we lost but if you look at it differently we

The Scottish Church showed little statesmanship or common sense during the referendum

A few hours after the final result of the Scottish referendum was announced, I visited the cemetery at Cille Bharra on the Outer Hebridean island of Barra. It’s the burial place of Sir Compton Mackenzie (1883-1972). I wondered what this versatile character, World War I British spymaster, novelist, and Catholic convert whom the students at Glasgow university elected as their rector in 1931, would have made of the result. He believed that the Catholic faith had greatly influenced the nations’s long-term personality and felt that its soul had shrivelled with the retreat of that faith to remote outposts such as Barra, where he had his home in the 1930s. An

James Forsyth

Have the Scottish Tories been detoxified?

The referendum campaign was a mixed experience for the Scottish Tories. On the one hand, it was a reminder of how much they are still hated in Scotland: End Tory rule forever, was one of the more frequently heard Nationalist battle cries. On the other, they had one of the campaign’s most effective advocates, Ruth Davidson and were accepted in as part of the cross party campaign. Indeed, it was telling that the Better Together campaign together rather than hiding Davidson away used her more and more as the campaign went on. In his Scotsman column today, the former Labour spin doctor John McTernan declares that ‘Ruth Davidson’s campaign has

Alex Massie

With malice toward none and with charity towards all, now the real work begins

Relief, actually. Not joy. A battle won is better than a battle lost but still an exhausting, bloody, business. There is no need to bayonet the wounded. It would, in any case, be grotesque to do so. Scotland voted and made, in my view, the right choice. The prudent choice. The bigger-hearted choice. But 45 per cent of my countrymen disagree. That’s something to be respected too. Moreover a good number of No voters did so reluctantly and not because they were necessarily persuaded by the case for Union but because they felt the Yes campaign had not proved its own argument beyond a reasonable doubt. That’s an important qualification. A reminder

David Cameron’s statement to the nation on devolution

Here’s the full text of the Prime Minister’s speech this morning in reaction to the ‘No’ vote in the Scottish independence referendum.  listen to ‘David Cameron’s statement on devolution’ on Audioboo The people of Scotland have spoken. It is a clear result. They have kept our country of four nations together. Like millions of other people, I am delighted. As I said during the campaign, it would have broken my heart to see our United Kingdom come to an end. And I know that sentiment was shared by people, not just across our country, but also around the world….because of what we’ve achieved together in the past and what we

Scotland rejects independence – as it happened

No has won the referendum. Scotland won’t become independent, but it will get new devolved powers, David Cameron promised this morning. Follow the developments on the PM’s plans to change the constitution here. 08:13 The final result is in. Highland. Yes: 78,069 No: 87,739. That’s 47.1% to 52.9% on a turnout of 87.0% 07.10 am: What are these ‘further powers’ that Scotland – and indeed the rest of the UK – might be given? If we’re getting more powers I want telekinesis #indyref — Craig Rothney (@rothneychild) September 19, 2014 07.05 am: What happens next for the rest of the UK? Here’s what Isabel has to say: The Prime Minister will give his response to

Even if it’s a No vote, the fall out will be very complicated

The most startling development over the past few days has not only been the narrowing of the polls but the consequential commitment of the three UK party leaders to Gordon Brown’s accelerated timetable for agreeing more devolution. Whether or not it convinces voters, this promise will have far-reaching effects not just for Scotland but also for the rest of the UK. The Brown plan envisages the setting out of options by the end of October, a month-long consultation before a White Paper on a plan by the end of November, and draft legislation in January. Leaving aside all the practical difficulties of meeting that timetable, there is no agreement on

Fraser Nelson

Whoever wins Scotland’s referendum, the ‘yes’ side has emphatically won the campaign

As I left Edinburgh this morning, en route to Inverness, I passed about four ‘yes’ activists cheerily wishing me good morning, asking if I have voted and would I like a ‘yes’ sticker if I had. It worked: on the way to Waverley, people were wearing the ‘yes’ stickers with nary a ‘no’ to be seen. If I were a ‘no’ voter heading for the polling station, I may wonder if I was actually on the wrong side of history. That a party was happening in one room, and I was heading to another – but that there was still time to change my mind. You have to hand it

Podcast: Campaign errors, Scotland turns its back and Anglican wars over women bishops

Scotland goes to the polls today, but whichever way the vote goes, it’s clear who lost the campaign: ‘No’ was outsmarted at every stage of the referendum battle. But how was this allowed to happen? In this week’s podcast, James Forsyth discusses what went wrong with Hugo Rifkind and Alex Massie. If Scotland does become independent, does the rest of Britain owe them anything? And if they stay, should we be forever grateful? In his column this week, Matthew Parris suggests the Spectator’s cover story last week – in which we asked our readers to write to Scots to ask them to stay – was unnecessary. He hopes that there

A No vote will create a schism between the voters of Scotland and its artists and writers

With the Scottish independence referendum drawing closer, two Newsweek Europe magazine correspondents and friends – Finlay Young (Scotsman), and Simon Akam (Englishman) – travelled the length of the United Kingdom together. They tried to get to the bottom of the independence debate, interviewing politicians, writers, artists, activists, and ‘ordinary’ citizens en route. In this excerpt from their unique dual-narrative 20,000 word account Scotsman Englishman, they meet two well-known Glasgow artists in favour of Yes, author Alasdair Gray and Belle & Sebastian songwriter Stuart Murdoch. Finlay Young (FY) – On this almighty Glasgow Wednesday, on the Yes side we will meet arguably Scotland’s greatest living writer, arguably Scotland’s finest living songwriter, arguably Scotland’s