Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

James Forsyth

Final polls put No ahead

The last YouGov poll of the campaign, which has a far larger than usual sample size, has No ahead 52-48. The last phone poll of the campaign, a Survation effort, has No up 53-47. So, the No campaign is ahead by a clear but small margin. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/3gFhn/index.html”] The Sun’s political editor Tom Newton Dunn reports that YouGov finds that men in Scotland favour independence 54 to 46 but women back the Union 57 to 43. Its numbers show that only 4 per cent of voters remain undecided. Interestingly, those from the rest of the UK who have moved to Scotland—those living the Union—are voting No by a 72 to 28 landslide.

Fraser Nelson

The Scottish jobs miracle is an argument for Union, not independence

One of the more bizarre aspects of the Scottish independence debate is the idea that UK welfare reform somehow doesn’t fit Scotland. On the contrary, it was designed for Glasgow – the Easterhouse housing scheme, to be specific, after a visit which changed Iain Duncan Smith’s whole career. And the other point about these reforms is that they’re actually working. Today’s figures show that the number of Scots in employment is rising by almost 500 a day. A grand total of 2.62 million are now at work in Scotland – never in the country’s history has it had so many in work. And why? It’s the same phenomenon that you see

James Forsyth

Salmond’s biggest myth

When I asked one leading SNP figure right at the start of this process how they would try and win this referendum, he told me that by the end of the campaign you’d barely be able to tell the difference between, what he called, independence-lite and devo max. This is why Salmond has put such emphasis on keeping the Queen as head of state, still using the pound and the idea that there won’t be any borders controls or customs posts.   Now, with the exception of the Queen remaining head of state these are distinctly dubious propositions. Scotland might choose to use the pound but, given that there isn’t

Isabel Hardman

Two campaign styles: one from the head, one from the heart

Aside from the odd angry moment, campaigning with ‘Yes’ in Kelvin this morning was very pleasant. It was also rather different from yesterday’s ‘No’ door knocking, and not just because the two areas are not at all similar. ‘Yes’ bussed their supporters from a campaign base out to their target streets. Then they split off in pairs to canvass different streets. This was entirely different to the ‘board’ set up that ‘No’ used yesterday in Rutherglen. The aim was to get leaflets through the door and chat to anyone who answered. There was no collection of data on voting intention or what time the person who answered the door intended

Martin Vander Weyer

Scotland could never prosper under the SNP, because they don’t understand business

No-nonsense businesspeople will be very much what’s needed in the aftermath of the Scottish Catastrophe, as it will surely come to be known whichever way the vote has fallen. No nation, independent or semi-autonomous, can hope to prosper on the basis of the wild welfare promises of the SNP, unsupported by any plan to attract investment and stimulate growth. Only a resurgent private sector can drag Scotland out of the tax-and-spend peat bog into which this referendum has driven it deeper than ever — and that will take quite some grit on the part of entrepreneurs, given the fundamental hostility of both the SNP and Scottish Labour. But grit —even

Hugo Rifkind

The public voices for Scotland’s no? Expats. Tory. Establishment. Posh. Why?

Journalistically speaking, it’s been a good year to be Scottish and Jewish. Had I been a Welsh Zoroastrian, say, I doubt I’d have had nearly so much to say. In recent months, obviously, it’s been the Scottish thing that has really taken off. I used to be marginally Scottish, irrelevantly Scottish; never realising that a period of being helpfully Scottish was just around the corner. I suppose it’s a bit like the presumptions that some bilingual people have, that other people must, must be able to speak other languages really. I think I just assumed that the rest of London’s media knew plenty about Scotland, but tended not to talk

David Cameron’s draft resignation letter in the event of a Yes vote

As told to Jonathan Foreman… To my fellow citizens I would like to apologise for the role I have played in the dismantling of the United Kingdom. I am sure there is little need for me to tell you that I never dreamed that my Prime Ministership would be the Union’s last, or that I would be the person ultimately responsible for the needless destruction of one of the most successful polities in the history of Europe and indeed the world. However, I must take responsibility for what has happened. First of all, the blame is mine for allowing the referendum question to be worded in a way that inevitably

James Forsyth

A 90-day patriot

One question before the independence vote on Thursday is where is the SNP’s most famous celebrity supporter? You might expect Sean Connery to be out rousing the faithful but so far there has been no sign of him. But is he planning a James Bond-style dramatic late entry into the campaign? Well, the Edinburgh Evening News tracked down his brother to ask and this is the reply they got: ‘There’s only a certain amount of days Sean can be in the country for tax reasons, so I know that he intends to use them wisely.’ It is good to know what Sir Sean thinks is a wise use of his

Alex Massie

Is Scotland confident enough to vote No?

We hold this truth to be self-evident: we are not an oppressed people. We have some liberty to chart our own course. We are, after all, choosing our path this week. We do not crave self-determination because we have always had that power. And many others besides that significant liberty. We are a free people. This is obvious yet also something worth recalling in these final hours. I have my own reasons for voting No on Thursday and, in truth, they have little to do with very much that has been said by the official Better Together campaign. But this kind of choice, this kind of referendum, inevitably prods one

Nick Cohen

Scottish nationalism: turning neighbours into foreigners

Nationalists build walls to keep their people in and the rest out. They create ‘us’ and ‘them’. Friends and enemies. If you disagree, if you say they have no right to speak for you because not all Scots/Serbs/Germans/Russians/Israelis think the same or recognise their lines of the map, you become a traitor to the collective. The fashionable phrase ‘the other’ is one of the few pieces of sociological jargon that enriches thought. All enforcers of political, religious and nationalist taboos need an ‘other’ to define themselves against, and keep the tribe in line. The process of separation and vilification is depressing to watch but familiar enough. Scottish nationalists are preparing

Isabel Hardman

Yes Scotland are running a sneaky campaign

Here’s a clever poster from the ‘Yes’ campaign. It was handed to me by an activist outside Glasgow Central Station who was asking people if they wanted ‘more information for the referendum’. She wasn’t wearing any Yes badges, and the outside of the leaflet doesn’t give the game away either: And inside there is still no ‘Yes’ branding, but it’s quite obvious from the design what sort of conclusion you’re being led to: Which then leads to the centre of this leaflet, which folds out to make an A1 poster: It’s a clever way of killing two birds with one stone: you hook someone in who might not pick up

Isabel Hardman

Why bias and bullying matters to both sides in the independence debate

Why, in the final few days of campaigning, are both sides in the Scottish independence referendum becoming obsessed with bullying and media bias? Shouldn’t they use their valuable airtime making the case for the Union, or for independence, or rebutting claims by the other side about the NHS? Today Alistair Darling said that ‘Scotland will not be bullied’, while Alistair Carmichael alleged that the pushing and jostling was directed at ‘No’ campaigners rather than ‘Yes, saying: ‘If there is bullying here – and clearly there is – and now quite a serious atmosphere where people who are supporting a ‘no’ vote don’t feel comfortable in saying so publicly…’ Alex Salmond

Fraser Nelson

It’s on! Come for tea at The Spectator before the 6pm #unity2014 rally in Trafalgar Square

Okay, so it’s going ahead: The Unity rally in Trafalgar Square, where people will come together to say how much the United Kingdom means to them, will take place 6pm Monday 15h September – Battle of Britain day, an appropriate time for the battle for Britain. And Spectator readers are welcome to come by for a cup of tea in the garden of our office at 22 Old Queen St, before we walk up together. Our garden isn’t massive (as anyone who has survived the crush at our summer party will attest) but if you’d like to come along, email editor@spectator.co.uk.  I know not everyone can get away at that time, and many

James Forsyth

The case for Britain is being made in Scotland, now it must be made in England too

At times in the last few months, it has seemed that if no one was making the case for Britain in Scotland. Too often it seemed that Better Together knew the price of separation but not the value of Britishness. But that is changing. Yes closing the gap, and taking the lead in a couple of polls, has prompting an outpouring of emotion about the United Kingdom from those on the No side. At a pro-Union event in Edinburgh on Friday night, I was struck by how speakers from Gordon Brown to Danny Alexander to George Galloway all talked about Britishness in raw, emotional terms. This focus on Britishness is

James Forsyth

Who will revive Scottish Labour?

George Galloway announced his support for Gordon Brown as First Minister of Scotland last night. Galloway’s endorsement came as Brown turned up at an event at Usher Hall in Edinburgh that Galloway was compering. The endorsement was met with a broad grin by Brown. But behind the humour, there is a serious point, Scottish Labour knows that it has given Salmond and the SNP far too easy a ride at Holyrood. As the former Labour Minister Brian Wilson acknowledged at last night’s event, this referendum is happening because the SNP managed to win a majority in the Scottish Parliament and Labour must take some of the blame for that. That

Freddy Gray

Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through the Constitutional Crisis

We all know the referendum is a big deal, but what can we actually say? None of us has much of an idea how the constitution might change after Thursday’s vote. Yet all of us want to talk knowledgeably about it and sound as if we really care. Here, then, is a primer for the uninitiated. Follow it closely and you should be able to skate your way through any discussion about the future of ‘our union’, at least until September 18. ‘Yes or No, Britain will never be the same again’ This remark sets you up as someone who comprehends the magnitude of what is happening and has the advantage

James Forsyth

A new poll shows the Scots referendum is going right to the wire

ICM’s poll has ‘no’ ahead, but only just– it’s 51-49. The ICM poll is a telephone one so both phone and internet polls are now showing ‘no’ narrowly ahead but the race too close to call. Adding to the unpredictably of the contest is that ICM found that 17 per cent of voters remain undecided – ‘no’ is on 42 per cent when they are included. Also no one is quite sure of what effect the far higher turnout (87 per cent of respondents said they are absolutely certain to vote) will have. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/SxP3I/index.html”] Being up here in Edinburgh you can’t help but notice how engaged people are with this referendum. There are far more posters

James Forsyth

Unionists must prepare for a second vote on Scottish independence

Tonight will bring another YouGov poll on the Scottish referendum and this may change the mood again. But right now, the pro-Union side is in far better cheer than it was. It feels that it has not only held the line in the last few days but begun to turn the tables on Salmond. There is a sense in the No camp that they have disrupted Alex Salmond’s momentum and prevented him from turning the final week of the campaign into a procession towards independence. They feel that the economic warnings from various business mean that the consequences of the choice are becoming more apparent. While the promise of a

Podcast: Stay with us, Scotland!

With only seven days to go until the referendum, urgent action is needed to help save the Union. In this week’s issue, we asked Spectator readers to write to Scottish voters, saying why they are hoping for a ‘No’ vote. The response was extraordinary. You can read some of the letters here. Fraser Nelson is joined by Tom Holland and Leah McLaren to discuss what else can be done to save the Union at this late stage. They also take a look at Canada and Quebec, and how their union managed to survive not one but two referendums. It’s safe to say that Westminster has gone into full panic mode.

James Forsyth

New poll puts No ahead in the Scottish referendum campaign

Tonight brings the first morale boost for the No campaign in a wee while, a Daily Record poll has them 53-47 ahead. Including don’t knows, the numbers are No 47.6%, Yes 42.4% and don’t know 9.9%. A while back, a 53-47 poll would have been regarded as alarming by the No camp. But a week is a long time in politics and tonight’s numbers will be seen as a reassuring sign that a Salmond victory is not inevitable and that independence doesn’t have unstoppable momentum. Particularly reassuring for the No side is that the number of Labour voters backing independence has fallen, which suggests that the bleeding on that front

Steerpike

Missing: One Secretary of State for Scotland

Don’t they know there’s a war on? Given that the government has finally woken up to the very real threat of a ‘yes’ victory, Mr S was rather surprised to hear where the Secretary of State for Scotland has been. Spies report that Alistair Carmichael spent the day in London yesterday. Presumably someone had to be in charge of handing out the Saltires. Witnesses reported him ‘loafing’ around Portcullis House, and he was even papped popping out for a casual coffee: I’m not quite sure what Alistair Carmichael Scotlands Sec found so funny this morning maybe Cameron losing the Union! pic.twitter.com/MezuUcXeqB — Political Pictures (@PoliticalPics) September 9, 2014 The Scotland

Alex Massie

Why I am voting No

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_11_Sept_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Fraser Nelson, Tom Holland and Leah McLaren discuss how we can still save the Union” startat=50] Listen [/audioplayer]Once upon a time, a long while ago, I lived in Dublin. It was a time when everything seemed possible and not just because I was younger then. The country was stirring too. When I arrived it was still the case that a visa to work in the United States was just about the most valuable possession any young Irishman or woman could own; within a fistful of years that was no longer the case. Ireland was changing. These were the years in which the Celtic Tiger was born. They were

James Forsyth

Cameron, Clegg and Miliband head to Scotland to make the case for the Union

David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband are combining forces and heading to Scotland tomorrow to make the case for the UK. Here’s their joint statement: ‘There is a lot that divides us – but there’s one thing on which we agree passionately: the United Kingdom is better together. That’s why all of us are agreed the right place for us to be tomorrow is in Scotland, not at Prime Minister’s Questions in Westminster. We want to be listening and talking to voters about the huge choice they face. Our message to the Scottish people will be simple: “We want you to stay.”‘ The presence of the three party leaders

Fraser Nelson

Devolution has given power to politicians, not people. Independence won’t change that

Gordon Brown has spoken, and the unionist parties are in agreement: if there’s a ‘no’ vote then more powers will be given – we’re told – ‘to Scotland’. There’ll be another commission and another Scotland Act. This so-called Devo Max should have been offered six months ago; to offer it in the last few days of the campaign smacks of panic. By moving more towards Salmond’s territory, the unionists conceded the premise: that more powers to the Edinburgh political elite is somehow the same as more powers to ‘Scotland’. And who could be against more power to Scotland? Not a single party, it seems, is questioning the premise: that the

Fraser Nelson

Join The Spectator’s campaign to save Britain (and write our next cover story)

We’ve had an extraordinary response to our request for emails saying why you hope that Scotland votes to stay, and to keep our country united. So many that we’ll put this on the cover – it will be the first cover piece written by readers, not journalists. And we need more! So please, email me at editor@spectator.co.uk with why you’d like Scots to stay. People power can save the union. Alex Salmond is very good at defining England as an elite, and making out as if the rest of the UK is indifferent to the survival of Britain. He’s very good at portraying his opponent as being one, big, posh

James Forsyth

People power can save the Union

If Scotland does vote for separation—as the latest YouGov poll suggests it will, we’ll enter the most unpredictable political period in living memory. But before we start contemplating the consequences of a Yes vote, it is worth thinking about what is giving independence momentum in Scotland. It is not just being driven by nationalist fervour but by the same anti-politics sentiment that is riling politics right across the United Kingdom. Voters who are fed up with Westminster and disappointed by politics are seeing voting Yes as a chance to rip up the whole system and start again. Breaking up the United Kingdom is, perhaps, the ultimate expression of anti-politics. This

Alex Massie

Come in Britain, your time is up

How do you kill an idea? That is the Unionist quandary this weekend. For a long time now the Better Together campaign has based its hostility to Scottish independence on the risks and uncertainties that, unavoidably, come with independence. This, they say, is what tests well with their focus groups. No-one gives a stuff about all that identity crap, they say, so there’s no need to talk about it. Instead, hype the unknowns – of both the known and unknown variety – and bang on and on about all that risk and all that uncertainty. Which, like, is fine. Until the point it ceases to be fine. Until the point

James Forsyth

The irresponsibility of Andy Burnham

Nothing matters more in British politics right now than keeping the country together. The polls in Scotland show that no one can be complacent about the result on the 18th of September. One thing that has helped the Nationalists to close the gap in Scotland is a serious of alarmist predictions about the NHS. They have seized on some of Andy Burnham’s overblown rhetoric to claim that the NHS south of the border is about to be privatised and that this will have a knock-on effect on Scotland. Given this, a period of silence on Mr Burnham’s part until after the referendum would be most welcome. But this morning, Burnham

Fraser Nelson

Spectator appeal: tell Scots why they should stay, and why Britain is worth saving

It’s extraordinary to think that we could be 12 days away from the destruction of our country. The union of Scotland and England, perhaps the most successful and consequential alliance in history, could be ended – and for the worst of reasons. The Scottish National Party has been campaigning hard, and campaigning well. Alex Salmond has excelled in depicting his enemy as a cold-hearted England whose values are so irreconcilable with those of Scotland that the only answer is the partition of (and, ergo, the end of) Britain As a Scot with three English children, I loathe this agenda more than I can say. But it has been a mistake, in

Ed West

Scotland won’t become a foreign country just because of a vote

Hugo Rifkind had an interesting piece in the Times yesterday on the Scottish referendum arguing that the No campaign, by focussing on economics and pragmatism (where they obviously have the edge), had totally conceded the realm of emotion and attachment. Yet Rifkind, coming south in his twenties to settle in London, had found that England was his home, too, and ends his article explaining why Britain is indeed one country. The whole No campaign seems devoid of any idea of British patriotism, indeed barely mentions the B-word in its literature, instead approaching the thing like an unhappy spouse weighing up the costs of sticking with it or leaving to end

Paul McCartney telling me to vote No makes me want to vote Yes

‘Scotland, stay with us!’ David Bowie declared back in February. And what Bowie says (or doesn’t, quite – attentive readers will remember that he got Kate Moss to say it for him) others parrot. A few days ago, Sir Paul ‘Macca’ McCartney added his name to an open letter urging the people of Scotland to join the Bowie bandwagon. He was late to the party – the other signatories make up a bizarre (and almost entirely English) cross-section of the British entertainment establishment, from Simon Cowell to David Starkey to Cliff Richard. An impressive love-in, then. But it begs the question: will it actually swing any votes? As a young-ish

Alex Massie

Alex Salmond is within sight of his promised land: Scottish independence is more than just a dream.

I don’t want to appear too immodest but, you know, I told you so. Back in February I wrote an article for this paper warning that Scotland’s independence referendum would be a damn close run thing. That was true then and it remains true now. Today’s YouGov poll reports that, once undecided voters have been removed from consideration, 47 percent of Scots intend to vote for independence while 53 percent will back the Unionist cause. If the odds remain against Alex Salmond it’s also the case that the price on independence is shortening. Paddy Power’s over/under calculation of a Yes vote now stands at 46.5 percent. A few weeks ago it was