All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
How will history judge George Osborne’s second Budget? Once the headline writers have moved on to the next story and the longer-term consequences of the measures become apparent, will this budget be seen as doing the right thing? Unfortunately the answer is, at best, “not really.” By sticking to the target of eliminating the
“We understand how difficult it is for so many people across our country right now.” If you weren’t sure which direction George Osborne’s Budget was going to head in, then he clarified it right from the start of his speech. This was one to tackle the rising cost of living. And much of it —
There are a few big Lib Dem policy wins in this Budget, most notably the rise in the personal allowance and the introduction of land auctions. But there are also a few bits of rather unseemly pork barrel politics. Nick Clegg’s Sheffield gets an enterprise zone, which is probably fair enough. But we are also
George Osborne beat the expectations game today. His abolition of the fuel duty escalator for this parliament should — Elizabeth Taylor and Libya permitting — get him the front pages he wants. Aside from the headline measures, I think there are three stories that will run on from this Budget. First, the government is
George Osborne has today done some massive juggling. It wasn’t a Budget for jobs after all, but a Budget to help people cope with the soaring cost of living. North Sea oil companies and banks were stung for various income, fuel and corporation tax cuts. The Chancellor spotted — immediately — that cost of living
There’s no successor to Elizabeth Taylor. No contemporary actress possesses anything like her fame. That’s a consequence of the changing nature of celebrity and the fragmentation of popular culture. The movies got small and so did the stars. But the sensational aspects of the Taylor-Burton saga makes it easy to forget that their celebrity was
Friskier than a spaniel. That’s how Cameron seemed at today’s PMQs. The Gadaffi debacle has given him a Falklands bounce – prematurely one senses – and he was glowing like freshly made toast from the praise lavished on his performance on Monday. He seemed to want to share the good cheer with everyone else, even
1348, PH: And Ed Miliband comes to a close, still sounding the same note: that the growth downgrades prove the coalition is bad for the nation’s health. We’ll come to a close there, too. Thanks for tuning in. More Budget coverage on Coffee House all afternoon, starting with these graphs. 1244, PH: Ed Miliband is
MPs are pretty out of touch, of course, clueless about the way “ordinary people” live. That’s what we’re supposed to think of course. We’re not supposed to remember that MPs probably regularly encounter a much broader range of public opinion and circumstance than highly paid columnists and political editors. Here, for instance, is Ben Brogan
1232: And that’s it. And here’s my quick verdict: a solid performance from Cameron is what was, on the whole, a sedate session. The Main Event starts now, follow our live blog here. 1228: More fire from Cameron on the NHS. “Do you want to save … lives,” he quivers,” or do you want to
We can expect at least one rabbit out of the hat in George Osborne’s Budget speech. The Chancellor is a canny enough operator to have held at least one big announcement back. Already this morning, we have had news that all councils will freeze or reduce their council tax next year. But I expect there
Great news for the nuclear industry and indeed for the world: George Monbiot has “altered” his stance on nuclear power and is now in favour of it, rather than being non-committal. In a magnificently self-regarding piece for the Grauniad yesterday he pointed out what most of the rest of us have been arguing for years
Cutting taxes for the low-paid is the most useful thing Osborne can do in what will, I suspect, be a distinctly unmemorable budget. The Mail and The Sun both have competing figures — £205 and £320 — for the annual rebate. Given that the average Brit is paying £310 more due to Osborne’s VAT rise
George Osborne couldn’t really have expected a much better set of newspaper covers than the one before him this morning. Despite the dreary background picture – war, confusion, higher inflation, lower growth, the ruinous state of the public finances, etc – a handful of papers are leading on the goodies in his Budget, and specifically
Not from Libya, obviously, since the situation there plainly has the potential to damage the American President but from a source closer to home. Dick Morris says Obama is finished: Will Obama get reelected? No way! In the teeth of the economic catastrophe that is shaping up, his chances are doomed. True, even Dick Morris
In stark contrast to 2003, when Gordon Brown delivered his Budget on the same day that Baghdad fell, the Treasury is phlegmatic about the Budget being overshadowed by Britain’s involvement in a conflict overseas. But the signs are that this will be, within the obvious fiscal constraints, an ambitious Budget. Tonight, we have had confirmation
Cairo The Facebook and Twitter revolutionaries are taking a beating at the hands of the Brothers. The results of Saturday’s referendum are now out and they point to a simple truth: the internet was fine as a tool for gathering a few hundred thousand youths in Tahrir Square; but it is largely irrelevant as a
The coalition is now in danger of coming unstuck — not because of failure, but because of its success. It needs to urgently decide how to run itself and what its aims are. Before it runs out of targets. Neither is easy to do. The US may want to handover control of the mission but
It’s a point that I’ve made before, but here it is again: Budgets don’t tend to shift opinion polls, at least not the headline numbers. But opinion polls can give some insight into how Budgetary decisions will go down with the public. So by way of a catch-up with some recent polls, and ahead of
As I see it, there should be three simple principles underpinning George Osborne’s Budget tomorrow. Let’s take them one by one: 1) Variations in household wealth mean that policies aimed at affecting the wider economy will often have unpredictable political effects. Economists have a tendency to imply that changes in GDP affect everyone uniformly, but
Inflation has now reached its highest level for 20 years, today’s figures reveal. But we will suffer not just because of the increased cost of living, but also because the government will penalise us by taxing our illusory gains. The Adam Smith Institute has calculated that about half of the £3.3 billion that the government
The February inflation figures spell more bad news for living standards in the UK. With average weekly earnings growth standing at just 2.2 per cent, millions of workers continue to get poorer in real terms. However, differences in the make-up of typical “shopping baskets” mean that the spending implications of inflation vary by income group.
What is a “Budget for Growth,” and how can one be delivered? These questions have been preoccupying civil servants across Whitehall, policy folk in think tanks, and the press since the coalition announced in November that it would be reporting back on its “Growth Review” in the 2011 Budget. While foreign events rightly moved discussion
The above Japanese video – explaining the nuclear accident to children — makes a lot more sense than many of the hysterical reports we have been reading in the last few days. The figures are not out yet, but it’s likely that tens of thousands were killed by the tsunami. Yet the newspapers were all
Fair play to George Monbiot: You will not be surprised to hear that the events in Japan have changed my view of nuclear power. You will be surprised to hear how they have changed it. As a result of the disaster at Fukushima, I am no longer nuclear-neutral. I now support the technology. A crappy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMnAmRa4NYw If we are going to avoid a clash of civilisations, we are going to need many more like the Pakistani actress Veena Malik. Watch her take on a mullah, who is trying to accuse her of immoral behaviour. This is no small accusation in Pakistan where Islamist death squads and their collaborators in the
From rescue to recovery — that’s how George Osborne is selling his Budget ahead of its release tomorrow. But what might we see beyond the rhetoric? Here’s a five-point guide for CoffeeHousers: 1) Growth. It almost feels like a tradition now: a new Budget, and a new set of forecasts from the Office for
The question of whether Gaddafi should be targeted and what the exit strategy should be in Libya are intimately linked. In truth, there is no exit strategy that does not involve Gaddafi’s fall from power. As long as he is there, the threat to those that the international community is now pledged to protect will
Unwelcome news for George Osborne: he will tomorrow present his Budget against a backdrop of the highest inflation for 20 years. The RPI index — what the nation called “inflation” until Brown changed the definition — is 5.5 per cent. It hasn’t been this bad since the aftermath of the ERM crisis, an unhappy comparison
A few days into the no-fly zone and the initial aim of the intervention has been achieved: Colonel Ghaddafi no longer controls his own airspace and cannot use airpower for close-air support, intimidation or murder. But success has bred a new problem – what now? Should the coalition turn itself into the airborne wing of
The House of Commons has just voted by 557 to 13 to support Britain’s participation in the enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1973. This came at the end of six and a half hours of respectful debate rounded off by a speech from the Foreign Secretary that reminded us why he was for so
Some commentators have argued that the right way to reduce the deficit is to take on large scale tax avoidance rather than public spending. The argument goes that large companies are shirking their responsibilities, while families and small businesses carry the burden of rescuing the public finances. Yet the evidence on who is actually avoiding
Discussion of military action brings a different atmosphere to the chamber of the House of Commons: quieter, less disputatious, more consensual. In opening the debate, the Prime Minister took a huge number of interventions including a large number from those MPs who are most sceptical of this intervention. All were heard respectfully and answered respectfully.