All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
As I see it, there should be three simple principles underpinning George Osborne’s Budget tomorrow. Let’s take them one by one: 1) Variations in household wealth mean that policies aimed at affecting the wider economy will often have unpredictable political effects. Economists have a tendency to imply that changes in GDP affect everyone uniformly, but
Inflation has now reached its highest level for 20 years, today’s figures reveal. But we will suffer not just because of the increased cost of living, but also because the government will penalise us by taxing our illusory gains. The Adam Smith Institute has calculated that about half of the £3.3 billion that the government
The February inflation figures spell more bad news for living standards in the UK. With average weekly earnings growth standing at just 2.2 per cent, millions of workers continue to get poorer in real terms. However, differences in the make-up of typical “shopping baskets” mean that the spending implications of inflation vary by income group.
What is a “Budget for Growth,” and how can one be delivered? These questions have been preoccupying civil servants across Whitehall, policy folk in think tanks, and the press since the coalition announced in November that it would be reporting back on its “Growth Review” in the 2011 Budget. While foreign events rightly moved discussion
The above Japanese video – explaining the nuclear accident to children — makes a lot more sense than many of the hysterical reports we have been reading in the last few days. The figures are not out yet, but it’s likely that tens of thousands were killed by the tsunami. Yet the newspapers were all
Fair play to George Monbiot: You will not be surprised to hear that the events in Japan have changed my view of nuclear power. You will be surprised to hear how they have changed it. As a result of the disaster at Fukushima, I am no longer nuclear-neutral. I now support the technology. A crappy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMnAmRa4NYw If we are going to avoid a clash of civilisations, we are going to need many more like the Pakistani actress Veena Malik. Watch her take on a mullah, who is trying to accuse her of immoral behaviour. This is no small accusation in Pakistan where Islamist death squads and their collaborators in the
From rescue to recovery — that’s how George Osborne is selling his Budget ahead of its release tomorrow. But what might we see beyond the rhetoric? Here’s a five-point guide for CoffeeHousers: 1) Growth. It almost feels like a tradition now: a new Budget, and a new set of forecasts from the Office for
The question of whether Gaddafi should be targeted and what the exit strategy should be in Libya are intimately linked. In truth, there is no exit strategy that does not involve Gaddafi’s fall from power. As long as he is there, the threat to those that the international community is now pledged to protect will
Unwelcome news for George Osborne: he will tomorrow present his Budget against a backdrop of the highest inflation for 20 years. The RPI index — what the nation called “inflation” until Brown changed the definition — is 5.5 per cent. It hasn’t been this bad since the aftermath of the ERM crisis, an unhappy comparison
A few days into the no-fly zone and the initial aim of the intervention has been achieved: Colonel Ghaddafi no longer controls his own airspace and cannot use airpower for close-air support, intimidation or murder. But success has bred a new problem – what now? Should the coalition turn itself into the airborne wing of
The House of Commons has just voted by 557 to 13 to support Britain’s participation in the enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1973. This came at the end of six and a half hours of respectful debate rounded off by a speech from the Foreign Secretary that reminded us why he was for so
Some commentators have argued that the right way to reduce the deficit is to take on large scale tax avoidance rather than public spending. The argument goes that large companies are shirking their responsibilities, while families and small businesses carry the burden of rescuing the public finances. Yet the evidence on who is actually avoiding
Discussion of military action brings a different atmosphere to the chamber of the House of Commons: quieter, less disputatious, more consensual. In opening the debate, the Prime Minister took a huge number of interventions including a large number from those MPs who are most sceptical of this intervention. All were heard respectfully and answered respectfully.
A gold star for Vladimir Putin, for providing us with one of the most extraordinary interventions of the day. While we knew that the Russian Prime Minister is opposed to military action in Libya — and also that he is no natural friend of the West — it is still striking to hear him talk
The press is currently making great play of an apparent difference between General Richard and Liam Fox on whether or not Gaddafi can be targeted. The whole debate flags up one of the absurdities of international legal convention. If it is legitimate to hit a Libyan tank crew moving on Benghazi, why it is not
Come the revolution, you’re supposed to hang the lawyers first. Which is fine. But it might be better to start with the judges. Specifically those that are happy to grant injunctions that prevent members of the public from raising matters of concern with their local MP. I ken that commonsense need not be compatible with
Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – providing your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no
Call it the domino effect, if you like. After Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, Yemen is the latest country to drag its rulers to the precipice — and it could push them over, too. The latest news is that several Yemeni generals have joined the protesters in calling on President Saleh to stand down. One source
Just as the world thought the Arab League had entered adulthood its Secretary-General, Amr Moussa, threw a teenage tantrum, voicing concern that the coalition bombing of Libya went beyond a no-fly zone. He had wanted the protection of civilians, he said, not the bombardment of more civilians. But it is hard to see what Moussa
I thought it would take at least three days for these new allies – France, UK, US – to lose the support of the Arab League, upon whose agreement this latest fatuous adventure was predicated. But it took rather less than that; about five minutes after the first Tomahawk had been fired, in fact. Tomorrow,
…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson makes some Budget predictions, and describes a threat to British liberty. James Forsyth explains why Osborne is so keen to unite National Insurance and Income Tax, and analyses the weekend’s events in Libya. David Blackburn notes that Sarkozy is being lauded
Gingerly, gingerly — that’s how the Americans are approaching the presentational battle over Libya, if not the actual campaign itself. There is no bombast in the official broadcasts from Washington, nor categorical intent. Instead we have Robert Gates emphasising, as he did yesterday evening, that the US will soon handover “primary responsibility” for the mission
Whatever you think of Prince William and Kate Middleton – good luck to ’em says I – and the coverage of their wedding, console yourself witht the thought that it’s unlikely the British coverage, extensive and often absurd as it may be, can be anything like as ghastly or over-the-top as that provided by American
Tonight’s news of major explosions in Tripoli shows that the allies are putting little store in the Gaddafi regime’s unsubstantiated claims of a ceasefire. Some of the targets appear, from reports, to have been in the same area of the city as Gaddafi’s barracks and residence. The US military, though, says the allies are not
Sky News has footage of officials of the Gaddafi regime (if that’s not too grand a phrase) saying that the Colonel has called his armed forces to a ceasefire. This announcement has come after a day of intense air attacks on targets across Libya, including in Tripoli, where anti-aircraft guns have been called into action.
I know it’s tedious to bang on and on about this but it does seem quite important that we have some idea of what we’re actually trying to achieve in Libya. Until we have a goal it seems most unlikely that we can have a coherent strategy. At present no-one seems to know what the
You may have heard of UK Uncut? They’re certainly good at attracting attention: forcing their way into Barclay’s bank the other week and managing to close a branch of TopShop temporarily. But what they have in noise they lack in substance. New research by the Institute of Economic Affairs exposes how the ‘grassroots movement’ want
According to Sky’s Tim Marshall, the Arab League is to meet in emergency session to discuss events in Libya. It seems that some of its members are opposed to the action being taken by the French, which it believes exceeds the remit of the UN Resolution for a no-fly zone. The bombing of tanks in
When trying to understand George Osborne Budgets, you need to bear in mind the mantra that he and his team live by: in opposition you move to the centre, in government you move the centre. It is this desire to move the centre ground that lies behind Osborne’s keenness to merge income tax and national
Here let us sweep The boundless landscape; not the raptur’d eye, Exulting swift, to huge Augusta send, Now to the sister-hills that skirt her plain To lofty Harrow now, and then to where Majestic Windsor lifts his princely brow. In lovely contrast to this glorious view, Calmly magnificent. James Thomson, ‘Summer’ from The Seasons, 1727
I’m hearing more reports about the rather peculiar behaviour of Nicholas Sarkozy, and how he is playing the Libya campaign thus far. Obama wants to hand over leadership of this mission quick. He was never really into it, but the US Navy was overwhelmingly the best placed to do the first phase of the mission
George Osborne appeared on the Andrew Marr show this morning to introduce the Pledge of his Budget magic trick. But Marr and his viewers wanted talk about the show of military strength over Libya. Osborne reiterated that the government is committed to enforcing the UN Resolution and had no plans to deploy ground troops at
Spare a thought for George Osborne and Danny Alexander. They had their own budgetary magic show planned for Wednesday, and were yet again planning to be the Paul Daniels and Debbie McGhee of British politics. Now, it looks like they’re going to be competing with exploding Libyan MiGs for the national attention. This Budget was, as