All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
A freewheeling, shirt-sleeve kind of speech from Cameron in Kennington this morning. But not one that was without substance. His main purpose was, as he put it, to “redouble the positive” – which meant more about the Big Society. Cameron has fashioned a persuasive narrative out of this, but question marks still remain over whether
It’s been a busy weekend at Spectator Live. We have the complete video footage of the leaders’ debate and you can read Will Straw analysis on the event here. Also, we’re conducting a readers’ poll: do you think that the Lib Dems will finish second? And here are some articles from the rest of the
If the Lib Dem surge shows anything, then it’s the growing power of personality politics in this country. A few days ago, they’re languishing in third place with around 20 percent of the vote. One dose of TV razzmatazz later, and they’re topping the polls on over 30 percent. Yes, even though I admire much
Earlier in the camapign, a two point lead in the YouGov tracker poll caused panic in Tory ranks. But tonight, there’s a certain sense of relief that the Tories are back ahead by this margin with You Gov. The numbers are Tories up one to 33, Lib Dems down two to 31 and Labour up
A quite bizarre report from the IPPR which attempts to prove that it is not immigration which tempts people to vote BNP, but a lack of “resilience”. This fatuous word, resilience, is used more and more by government and quangos and local councils, usually to transfer blame to ordinary people for the crimes of those
In the book a World Without the West, the authors invite the reader to imagine the non-Western world where South-to-South grow so strong that they bypass the traditional Euro-Atlantic powers. Stuck in southern Europe because of Eyjafjallajokull’s eruption, I have begun thinking about life without airplane travel. The last 15 years have not only
Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – providing your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no
As Sunder Katwala tweeted* this evening, years from now children will ask: Daddy what were you doing the weekend the Liberal Democrats were winning the election? Tonight’s Yougov poll reports that the Liberals are in the lead on 33%, a point ahead of the Conservatives with Labour languishing on 26%. If the election actually produced
Tonight’s YouGov tracker has the Lib Dems on 33 percent (up 4), the Tories on 32 percent (down 1) and Labour on 26 percent (down 4). So the topsy-turviness continues – but for how long?
As the Conservatives start looking at areas where the Liberal Democrats are weak, or where differences can be drawn between the parties, they are honing in on international development. In the Independent on Sunday, David Cameron and anti-poverty star Jeffrey Sachs lay out the party’s plans if they win power. It includes a commitment to
The Charlie Whelan problem is intensifying for Labour, with more revelations in the Mail on Sunday today taking on from our cover story in this week’s magazine. Whelan’s behaviour may be no worse than that of Ed Balls and Gordon Brown – but he is more careless. Like McBride, he was actually caught: and his
If the Tories are to beat back this Lib Dem surge, there are three things they need to do. First, they need to establish Cameron as the insurgent, anti-establishment candidate. It might seem odd to urge the leader of the Conservative party to be the anti-establishment cadidate, but the establishment in this country is now
They’re no Obama Girl that’s for sure. In fact this is probably a new Youtube low. So bad in fact that it must be deliberate…
Cameron has not, alas, broken free of the never-ending opinion poll bungee jump which is the story of his leadership of the Conservative Party. Cleggmania is a bubble – but the thing about bubbles is that one can never quite tell when they will burst. The Tories, who have lost the most votes due to this bubble,
Is the Mail on Sunday’s back-bench trying to persuade voters to think about endorsing the Liberal Democrats? I assume so, otherwise you’d have to wonder what they meant by writing this headline for the dead tree edition of this story: “His wife is Spanish, his mother Dutch, his father half-Russian and his spin doctor German.
Labour high command will be very satisfied with Brown’s performance on Marr this morning. There was far less of the tetchiness that we usually see from Brown in interviews and by being invited to talk about the ash cloud and the government’s response to it at the beginning, Brown was able to assume some of
So far as the Tories are concerned, Peter Mandelson is the political equivalent of an itch that you can’t scratch: irritating, elusive and impossible to ignore. And he’s at it again today, with an article in the Independent on Sunday chiding the Tories’ over their Big Society agenda. It’s not the “agenda of abandoment”
Tonight’s YouGov poll is another reminder, if oner were needed, that the Tories have to burst the Nick Clegg bubble. But any direct attacks on Clegg are dangerous as they present him with an opportunity to attack the same old politics. What the Tories need to do is to deflate it with humour. They should
Gordon Brown should have done it at the beginning of the recession. He and David Cameron should be thinking very seriously about it now. Perhaps national government is an idea whose time has come. Again. With the prospect of a very close election, in which people are clearly sick of the conventional two-party system, there
As James says, we’re going to need to wait a few days before we can be sure if the Lib Dem surge has legs but, yes, right now something is happening. The headline figures for the three polls we’ve seen since Clegg’s coming-out party are: ComRes: Con: 31 (-4) Lab: 27 (-2) Lib: 29 (+8)
Certainly, the Lib Dems’ current joy will prove transient; but for the first time since 1983 this is a three party race. As Pete notes, Labour see Nick Clegg as the surest means to keep the Tories out of office. Even before the debate, the normally cerebral Andrew Adonis was penning passionate articles appealing to
Nick Clegg has always said that if no party can command a majority in parliament, he will support the party voters have been seen to support. It was assumed that if the Tories were the biggest party – but a few members short of an outright majority – he would back them. But if the
Anyone seen any political posters up in windows and gardens etc? I’ve been around a few constituencies and have seen one placard – for the Tory candidate for Redditch – in a field on the edge of her territory, and that’s it. The general lack of enthusiasm for this election at least in part explains
We’ve had the insta-polls and that eyectaching YouGov poll, and now we get the political reaction to Thursday’s TV debate. Interviewed in the Times, Alan Johnson plays up what Labour and the Lib Dems have “in common,” and opens the door on a potential coalition. While, in the Telegraph, David Cameron sets about Lib Dems
A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday has the Lib Dems in the lead. The poll, which uses a similar methodology to YouGov, puts the Lib Dems up 12 on 32, the Tories down 7 to 31 and Labour down three to 28. Time will tell if this is a bubble that will burst
There’s another poll putting the Lib Dems in second place now, Com Res has them up eight to 29, the Tories down four to 31 and Labour down two to 27. An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has the Lib Dems up 7 to 27. The Tories are on 34, down 3, and Labour are down two to 29.
The more I think about David Cameron’s debate performance the more I think that the problem with it was that it was too one-note. He said little that would make voters think of him as a different kind of Conservative. As with his 2008 conference speech, there was too much health and safety and not
I am sitting in a busy café in Athens’s fancy Kolonaki district, watching the city’s elite stroll by in their well-fitting couture jeans, as the afternoon sun shimmers off the dusty streets. The women are weighed down by that most delightful of burdens — shopping bags from the local FENDI shop — and the latte
The consensus is that David Cameron made a mess of last night’s TV debate. And whilst he wasn’t bad, he certainly wasn’t good, especially to watch. In a post over at Cappuccino Culture, I make the point that Cameron was the most static and soulless feature of a static and soulless piece of television. Undoubtedly
Keep up to date with the election on Spectator Live, where Gaby Hinsliff urges the need for police reform. Here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the past week: The Leaders’ Debate: Fraser Nelson believes that the novelty of Nick Clegg won it for him. James Forsyth celebrates a good night for
We’re lucky to have the Spectator’s very own Notting Hill Nobody, and infamous Tory insider, Tamzin Lightwater, as a member of the Spectator’s special election panel. You can read her dispatches, over at Spectator Live.
I must say I had a chuckle at Alastair Campbell’s tweet during the leaders’ debate: “Clegg done well on style, Cameron clear winner on shallowness, GB winner on substance”. I had another chuckle when Alan Johnson used the line in the post-debate analysis and now I see David Miliband congratulating Alan Johnson for using it and
How do you know that Cameron lost the debate last night? Well, normally sensible people such as Iain Dale start making excuses for his poor performance and arguing that losing was actually part of a cunning plot to win. Seriously: There were several moments last night when David Cameron could have gone in for the
More concrete information will emerge over the next few days, and it may be sensible to reserve judgement until then. But the polling data we have so far is unanimous: Nick Clegg walked it. Here are some of the polls: YouGov: Who performed best in the TV debates? Clegg: 51 percent Cameron: 29 percent Brown: