Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Apart from independence, the SNP stands for nothing

The deposed Scottish Nationalist MP for East Lothian, George Kerevan, found solace this week in the words of a distinguished former editor of The Spectator. Kerevan tweeted: ‘I believe every Scotsman should be a Scottish nationalist’, John Buchan, House of Commons, 24 November, 1932.’ Hundreds of disconsolate Nationalists took to their keyboards to embrace Buchan’s validation of their core belief. A retweet by my own MP, Angus MacNeil, whose devotion to Twitter greatly outweighs his capacity for research, caught my attention. The obvious conclusion was that none of them had actually read what Buchan said in his contribution to the debate on the Queen’s Speech, all those years ago. Anyone

Stephen Daisley

By loving independence so much, the SNP may have killed it

When Alex Salmond lost the Scottish independence referendum, he sought to console himself and the ranks of the vanquished by declaring ‘the dream shall never die’. It was the salve that soothed the disappointment of a nationalist movement. But today that dream appears to lie in ruins. Two years ago, the SNP swept all before it, claiming 56 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies at Westminster; on last night, they lost almost 40 per cent of those same seats. The reversal cannot be overstated. Salmond, the SNP’s former leader, lost in Gordon. Angus Robertson, their leader in the Commons, lost in Moray. The party was thrown out in East Dunbartonshire after a

Andrew Neil interviews Nicola Sturgeon: Full transcript

AN: Nicola Sturgeon the SNP has governed Scotland for ten years, so can we start by agreeing that the performance of Scottish public services is the responsibility of you and the SNP government? NS: I take responsibility for the performance of our public services, although Scotland’s overall budget of course is determined by decisions taken at Westminster and our budget has been reduced over the years since the Conservatives have been in office. AN: Let’s start then with Alex Salmond’s former head of policy Alex Bell, this is what he’s had to say. ‘The evidence shows that we, the SNP, haven’t closed the poverty gap, redistributed wealth, improved education of

Alex Massie

The SNP’s muddled education policy is failing Scottish kids

I am afraid that whenever a politician asks to be judged on their record, it is sensible to assume this reflects a confidence they won’t be. At the very least such promises are hostages to future headlines. Take, for instance, Nicola Sturgeon’s boast that education  – and specifically closing the gap between the best and worst schools in Scotland – is her top priority. Judge me on this, she said. Well, OK.  Today the SNP government published the results of the latest Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy and, as has become annually predictable, they make for depressing reading. While standards of reading have remained relatively constant amongst both primary and

Alex Massie

The Tory revival in Scotland belongs to the Unionists

Well, then. It turns out that the revival of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party is a real thing. Last year, the party won 31 seats at the Scottish parliament elections, supplanting Labour as the second force in Scottish politics. This week, it became the second largest party in local government across Scotland. The Tories are a party reborn, the beneficiaries of an increasingly polarised political landscape. It may be ironic that Ruth Davidson’s party benefits from the SNP’s dominance but there you have it. Caveats apply, of course. The voting system used in Scottish council elections helps the Tories. The single transferable vote is a very different beast to

How to vote to save the Union

When launching the Scottish National Party’s election campaign, Nicola Sturgeon said the word ‘Tory’ 20 times in 20 minutes. For much of her political lifetime, it has been used by the SNP as the dirtiest word in Scottish politics. Nationalists have long liked to portray the Conservatives as the successors to Edward Longshanks: an occupying army with little affinity for the people they were trying to govern. But things are changing fast in Scotland. Amid the other political dramas of the past few months, the revival of Tory support north of the border has gone relatively unnoticed. They had only one MP after the last election, but a poll this

James Forsyth

Can Labour become a truly national party again?

The latest polling marmalade dropper comes from Wales. Labour have won a majority of Welsh seats in every general election for the past eighty-odd years. But the latest Welsh Political Barometer, the most respected poll there, has the Tories on 40 per cent and on course to win 21 seats to Labour’s 15. This poll combined with the fact that Labour is now down to one MP in Scotland shows how difficult it will be for the party to win a UK-wide majority again. They will have to do it without the inbuilt advantage that their Celtic strength used to provide them with. If May can succeed in realigning British

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s election gamble is paying off

Everything you need to know about the current state of the polls is summed up by the fact that one which puts the Tories at 40 per cent, a level that they haven’t hit in a general election for a quarter of a century, and 11 points clear is presented as a blow to them. Now, the reason that the Mail on Sunday has done this is because other polls have the Tories so far ahead that a mere 11 point lead looks rather anaemic. ComRes has the Tories at a jaw-dropping 50 per cent, with Labour on 25 per cent. YouGov puts the Tories on 48 per cent, and

Fraser Nelson

The strange rebirth of Scottish Conservatism

At the time of their 1997 wipeout, the Scottish Tories were at least hated. When I was reporting from the Scottish Parliament some 14 years later, things were even worse: there was curiosity, even pity, for Tory supporters. One Tory MSP told me the party should rename itself “the effing Tories” because that’s what they had become known as. Voting Conservative was no longer seen as a giant evil, more a harmless perversion – like cross-dressing (or cricket). Then Ruth Davidson came along, then Jeremy Corbyn, then the SNP with its obsession with referenda – and now, everything has changed. The above graph shows the latest voting intention in Scotland, with the Tories soaring

Alex Massie

There is something grubby about Theresa May’s snap election

Since I suggested last July that Theresa May, newly anointed as leader of the Conservative and Unionist party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, should call an election to both establish her own legitimacy and allow the country an argument over the kind of Brexit it preferred, it would be unseemly to now deplore her belated decision to go to the country.  Happily, there remain many other things that may be deplored. Far from the least of these is the manner in which the Prime Minister has made her case for an election. It’s not her fault, you see, that she has (correctly, in

Alex Massie

The general election will be a vote on Scottish independence

‘Now is not the time’ except, apparently, when now is the time. The reasons for engineering a general election are many and obvious. The current government is tolerated, not welcomed. Theresa May needs a mandate of her own. A thumping Tory majority – the only conceivable outcome of any dash to the country – will not hugely strengthen her position with Britain’s erstwhile european friends and partners, but it will secure her position on the domestic front. For Labour, too, this is an opportunity to lance a boil: it will, or should at any rate, end the Jeremy Corbyn era. For their part, the Liberal Democrats should welcome the opportunity

Katy Balls

Scotland Office to the Scottish Government: get on with the day job

Although a government statement on the labour market statistics for Scotland doesn’t on the surface sound like the juiciest news release of the day, today’s has proved rather revealing. With unemployment in Scotland down by 15,000 in the period December 2016 to February 2017, the Scottish unemployment rate has fallen to 4.5 per cent — below the rate of 4.7 per cent for the whole of the UK. You might expect the Scotland Office press release to trumpet this good news but instead it turns its guns on the SNP — pointing to the fact that the Scots employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points over the quarter to 73.4 per cent. The

James Forsyth

Scottish parliament votes for a second referendum – but Theresa May is unlikely to sway

The Scottish Parliament has voted 69-59 for a second Scottish independence referendum. This is no surprise. But it does lend more force to Nicola Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum. She can now say that she has her parliament behind her when she presents the UK government with her request for a Section 30 order. Don’t expect Theresa May to move position though: she’ll stick to her line that ‘now is not the time’ for a second vote on independence. The UK government has been, privately, delighted at how May’s position has gone down in Scotland. They feel that there is no groundswell of support for another referendum, something that

Theresa May’s Brexit speech in Scotland, full transcript

It is very good to be with you here with you today, and particularly to be able to thank you all for the work you do on behalf of the Government and on behalf of the British people. Vital work that helps millions around the world and speaks strongly to the values that we share as a country. And it is vital work. Not just because the things you do here have a material impact on the lives of some of the poorest and most vulnerable people around the world. But also because the work you do here – in conjunction with your colleagues at the Department for International Development in

Ed West

An independent London would be a Thatcherite dystopia

Tottenham MP David Lammy has been writing in the Evening Standard about how it makes sense now for London to become a ‘city-state’, following Brexit: Over the course of the next two years as the reality of Brexit begins to bite, the economic, social and political cleavages between London and other parts of the country will become more pronounced. London’s status as a de facto city-state will become clearer and the arguments for a London city-state to forge a more independent path will become stronger. I’ve argued before that there is an increasingly strong case for London leaving the union because the aspirations of Londoners and the people of England

Steerpike

Andrew ‘Calamity’ Cooper – the man who blew Remain – in talks to take on Scotland project

Scottish nationalists may want to get the champagne at the ready. Word reaches Steerpike that Andrew ‘Calamity’ Cooper – the serial bungler whose last project was the EU Remain campaign – is being sounded out to lend his expertise to Scots trying to save the union. The SNP want a referendum within two years; Theresa May has said ‘not yet’ but plans are being made by unionists. Unsurprisingly, Cooper has been at a bit of a loose end since the EU campaign. A campaign is currently being set up in preparation of a second independence referendum — with the working title ‘New Direction’. It’s thought that Populus, Cooper’s firm, is the frontrunner to be

Alex Massie

Why is the UK government so happy to give the SNP what they want?

‘Now is not the time’ is not an answer to anything, not least since no one has actually suggested a second referendum on Scottish independence take place ‘now’. In that respect, the Prime Minister’s line today answers precisely nothing and cannot be sustained inevitably. I should have thought this sufficiently obvious enough that even people in Downing Street could have discerned this. But evidently not. The SNP are past-masters when it comes to mining grievance. That being so, however, you wonder at a strategy that hands them a gold-plated grievance and does not even seek to charge them a fair price for it. Theresa May might as well have said:

James Forsyth

‘Now is not the time’ – Theresa May plays hardball with Nicola Sturgeon

Theresa May has just declared that ‘now is not the time’ for a Scottish independence referendum. Given that no referendum can take place without the UK government’s consent. May is effectively ruling it out whatever the Scottish Parliament decides next week.  Now, it is not a surprise that the UK government won’t let an independence referendum take place during the Brexit negotiations. Scottish voters can’t possibly make an informed decision until they know both the terms of the Brexit deal and what kind of relationship with the EU or the single market an independent Scotland could have. But what is new in May’s statement is her refusal to suggest when

Charles Moore

Sturgeon’s great trick has been to convince us the SNP represent all Scots

The great achievement of the Scottish Nationalists is to persuade people outside the borders of their own nation — including the London-based media — to equate them with the Scottish people. Obviously, they are their chief elected representatives just now, but the result of the referendum on Scottish independence quite clearly showed that the equation is false. So when Nicola Sturgeon says there has to be another referendum because of Brexit, the equation should be much more firmly challenged. There is no moral reason why the result of a declaredly UK-wide referendum should require another vote in part of the kingdom (next, UDI for London?). Nor is there a constitutional

Lloyd Evans

Scottish MPs don’t want to lead Britain. They want to sabotage it

Corbyn flunked it. Yet again. And his failure to skewer the government left the field open to the SNP. Speaker Bercow seemed to collude with this arrangement and he gave the Nats six opportunities to quiz the prime minister. Angus Robertson appeared to relish the battle. His great grey face was already brimming with fury as he demanded that Mrs May reach ‘an agreement’ with Holyrood before triggering Article 50. By ‘agreement’ he meant that Scotland must stay within the single market while the rest of Britain gets out. Which is hardly sensible. Like putting a zebra-crossing on a runway. But the SNP isn’t interested in good sense or compromise.

Another Scottish independence referendum? The Union can win it

Fraser Nelson is joined by Alex Massie and James Forsyth to discuss IndyRef2: When will the politics ever end? Now Nicola Sturgeon says she wants a second Scottish independence referendum, and so we plunge ourselves – wearily but no less determined – into yet another fight to save our country. The nationalists operate on the principle of being a persistent irritant. Demand independence so often and so annoyingly that eventually the country just says: ‘Have it, if it will shut you up.’ But no. We proud Unionists cannot submit to the SNP’s logic that independence is ‘only a matter of time’. We have to fight this. And we can win.

James Forsyth

How Theresa May can avoid IndyRef2

Fraser Nelson is joined by Alex Massie and James Forsyth to discuss IndyRef2: Nicola Sturgeon has thrown down the gauntlet to Theresa May with her speech today. When the Scottish parliament backs a second independence referendum, as it will in the next few weeks, the UK government will have to decide how to respond. After all, there can be no referendum without Westminster’s consent. A Madrid-style outright refusal to allow a referendum is unlikely. But the real fight will be over the timing. Sturgeon says she wants a referendum in either Autumn 2018 or Spring 2019. But the UK government has privately made clear that any referendum would have to

Nicola Sturgeon announces a second Scottish referendum: full speech

Before the end of this month – and very possibly as early as tomorrow – the Prime Minister will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, setting the UK on course to leave the EU in March 2019. It is important, therefore, for me to report now on the Scottish Government’s attempts to find compromise with the UK government and set out our plan to protect Scotland’s interests. Right now, Scotland stands at a hugely important crossroads. We didn’t choose to be in this position. In common with most people across the country, I wish that we weren’t in this position. But we are and the stakes are high –

Alex Massie

Scottish nationalists will now use a simple slogan: ‘Take back control’

Fraser Nelson is joined by Alex Massie and James Forsyth to discuss IndyRef2: You were warned, you know. You were told this would happen. And you voted for Brexit anyway. Because you privileged leaving the European Union over not giving the Scottish government an excuse to put the future integrity of the United Kingdom back at the heart of our politics. And then you did it anyway. That was your right. Of course it was. But you were told what would happen next and, lo, it has. So do not feign surprise today. Choices have consequences and some of them were not hard to foresee. This morning, Nicola Sturgeon made

Alex Massie

The SNP’s rosy-tartaned independence vision comes unstuck

In 2013, the Scottish National Party claimed an independent Scotland would be the sixth richest country on earth. Like many extravagant suggestions, this contained the essence of its own downfall. It would be lovely if it were true but didn’t it seem just a tiny bit too good to be true? At the same time, and for the next 18 months or so, SNP politicians assured the Scottish people that there was no need to worry about the economic case for independence. They had the numbers to prove it. Granted, no one was ever encouraged to ask awkward questions about the assumptions made to generate this rosy-tartaned vision. For instance,

Ed West

The hypocrisy of pro-Union Brexiteers

There’s something quite romantic about the idea of a real border between Scotland and England, which a government minister warns will be the result of Scottish independence. Maybe we could have an India-Pakistan style daily face-off, but with soldiers dressed as The Jocks and the Geordies. Or an old-fashioned war over the ‘debatable lands’, which hasn’t been seen since the Rough Wooing. As Alex Massie warns in this week’s cover story, voters in parts of Britain may soon have to endure yet another referendum, with a considerably weaker unionist case this time around: Neither May nor Sturgeon would choose to make their stands on this kind of terrain. But politics

Nicola Sturgeon’s ‘neverendum’ is hammering the Scottish economy

Its economy will be destroyed by leaving the single market. Losing access to European sales will destroy swathes of industry, and without free movement, employers will be crucified by skill shortages. Nicola Sturgeon is no doubt already preparing her lines for a vote on Scottish independence once the UK leaves the EU. Right now, that looks as if it could come a lot sooner than anyone imagined. It is reported that as soon as the Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50 and starts the process of leaving the European Union, Scotland’s First Minister will announce plans for a second referendum on independence – a demand that May could find

The SNP now want a ‘semi-detached’ Scotland. Could it work?

The SNP appears to be on the verge of changing one of its core beliefs – full membership of the European Union. Senior party figures have revealed, in a piece in the Times today, that there is a desire in the higher echelons of the SNP to ditch this long-standing tenet of party policy. Instead, they want the party to adopt a Norway-style model. This would see an independent Scotland outside the EU but inside the single market, after Brexit. Scotland could then join the EU at a later date, if it wished to do so but it would not immediately join the back of the queue for EU membership,

Fraser Nelson

Nicola Sturgeon’s Brexit charade continues

With the predictability of an atomic clock, Nicola Sturgeon has come out today condemning the Supreme Court which has reminded her that foreign affairs are not devolved, so Brexit is handled by the UK government on behalf of everyone in the UK. She concludes that ‘Scotland’s voice is not being heard and not being listened to within the UK’. She started wanting to find a compromise about Brexit, she said, trying to be reasonable. But she – or, rather Scotland because they are of course the same thing – faces ‘hard-right Brexit opinion’. Nicola Sturgeon on the UK Government not having to consult the Scottish Government before triggering Article 50. https://t.co/pfqV2e3r2F pic.twitter.com/JX6OFPyxfX —

May just made another Scottish referendum ‘more likely’, says Sturgeon

Nicola Sturgeon inched Scotland closer to a re-run of its independence referendum today by reacting angrily to Theresa May’s Brexit speech. Having already put indyref2 ‘on the table’ – but not for this year – Scotland’s First Minister said the Prime Minister’s speech today had made another independence vote ‘more likely’. ‘The UK Government cannot be allowed to take us out of the EU and the single market regardless of the impact on our economy, jobs, living standards and our reputation as an open, tolerant country, without Scotland having the ability to choose between that and a different future,’ the First Minister said. And she added: ‘With her comments today, the Prime Minister has

Alex Massie

The SNP’s dominance in Scotland is complete

Like the past, Scotland is a different country. Things are done differently here. What might be thought eyebrow-raisingly inappropriate in a larger polity is considered normal here. Consider these three examples: In 2015, Scottish Television decided it was a good idea to make Nicola Sturgeon, together with her sister and her mother, the star of its Hogmanay broadcast. New Year with the Sturgeon’s was in turn hosted by Elaine C Smith, the comedienne who was, conveniently, also a member of Yes Scotland’s advisory board during the 2014 independence referendum. Earlier this month, the SNP rolled-out the first ‘baby boxes’ that will be delivered to every new-born infant in Scotland. The

Alex Massie

Nicola Sturgeon’s Baldrick moment

Yesterday, the Scottish government published its ‘plan’ for life after Brexit. It was, at 60 or so pages, more detailed than anything we have yet seen from Theresa May’s ministry. But then it would be, given that Nicola Sturgeon will not be leading the UK’s negotiations as and when they begin. Still, plenty of nationalists crowed that, whatever else might be said of the Scottish government’s document, at least Sturgeon has a plan. But so did Baldrick.  That a plan exists does not make it a good plan. Or even an achievable one. And since we are still in the early stages of the Brexit waiting game the Scottish government’s proposals

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Thin-skinned Theresa May and the merits of Sturgeon’s Brexit plan

If any one still doubts the merits of Britain controlling its own borders, look to Germany, says the Daily Telegraph. While it’s true that we still don’t know who was responsible for this week’s devastating attack on a Berlin Christmas market, ‘Germany has already suffered fatal terrorism facilitated by the EU’s failure to control its borders,’ the paper says. The Telegraph goes on to say that, after Brexit, Britain will be able to renew its commitment to the ‘first duty of a state’ – ensuring ‘people’s security’. And all the signs of Theresa May’s leadership so far suggests the country is in good hands. In its editorial, the Telegraph says that the