Skip to main content

Follow it all for just $5 for 3 months.

No commitment. Cancel any time.

SUBSCRIBE

Sign In

UNLOCK ACCESS $5 for 3 months

Home
Podcasts
Writers
Newsletters
Events
Club
Briefings

- Coffee House
- Politics
- Economy
- World
- Culture
- Life
- Magazine
- Home
- Podcasts
- Writers
- Newsletters
- Events
- Club
- Briefings
Coffee House
- Politics
- Society
- World
- Data
- Economy
- Scotland
Culture
- Arts
- Books
- Exhibitions
- Film
- Music
- Radio & podcasts
- Television
- Stage
Life
- Culture
- What to watch
- Wine & food
- Travel
- Property
- Sport
- Style
- Health
Magazine
- The Week
- Features
- Columnists
- Books
- Arts
- Life
- Cartoons
- Puzzles & games
This week's issue

09 Nov 2024

Coffee House
Politics
Economy
World
Culture
Life
Magazine

Sign In

UNLOCK ACCESS $5 for 3 months

Sign In

- Coffee House
- Politics
- Economy
- World
- Culture
- Life
- Magazine
- Home
- Podcasts
- Writers
- Newsletters
- Events
- Club
- Briefings
Coffee House
- Politics
- Society
- World
- Data
- Economy
- Scotland
Culture
- Arts
- Books
- Exhibitions
- Film
- Music
- Radio & podcasts
- Television
- Stage
Life
- Culture
- What to watch
- Wine & food
- Travel
- Property
- Sport
- Style
- Health
Magazine
- The Week
- Features
- Columnists
- Books
- Arts
- Life
- Cartoons
- Puzzles & games
This week's issue

09 Nov 2024

Cartoons
Magazine: 08 July 2017

Ref

The Spectator

From magazine issue: 8 July 2017

Share
Share

The Spectator

Ref
Linkedin

Messenger

Email

Not even close: how Trump confounded the pundits

From the magazine

It was supposed to be close. On the eve of election day, Donald Trump was up just 0.1 per cent in the RealClearPolitics polling average. FiveThirtyEight projected a tiny Trump advantage. PredictIt had Kamala Harris ahead. A celebrated pollster ran 80,000 simulations, and Harris won 50.015 per cent of them, versus 49.985 per cent for