2015 general election

Thursday

30 Apr 2015

A (partial) defence of the spin room

Tonight’s ‘Question Time’-style TV debates will be followed by what has become probably the most hated aspect of this rather uninspiring general election campaign: the spin room. This spectacle of journalists interviewing journalists as they listen to frontbenchers from all the parties parroting lines about how their leader was the best (or, in the Tory case, how well Nicola Sturgeon has been doing) is odd enough inside the room, let alone for those watching at home. The way the politicians spinning talk is even less natural than usual: it’s like a Westminster version of Made In Chelsea, stuffed with people acting at being actors. And yet there is a reason

Carola Binney

Young people want a future, not freebies

Ed Miliband wants the youth vote enough to have spent an evening with Russell Brand earlier this week. My generation could decide the election next Thursday, and politicians seem to think there are two ways to win young voters’ hearts: celebrity endorsement and self-interest. The battle for the youth vote has hinged around promising to save us money. Now they’re done bickering about tuition fees, the party leaders are busy telling students how we would personally benefit from their governments: Labour would ban unpaid internships, the Tories would help us buy our first homes and the Lib Dems would cut our bus fares by two-thirds. But when it comes to

James Forsyth

Cameron needs to keep the momentum going in tonight’s Question Time

Tonight’s Question Time is, probably, the most important TV event of the campaign. The fact that it is on BBC1 in prime time means that it is likely to attract a bigger audience than the previous debates. That it is on the BBC also means that any newsworthy moments will be pumped out across the BBC’s entire network from local radio to the world wide web. But what really makes tonight so important is how many undecided voters there still are. Today’s Mail poll has 40% of those going to vote saying that they are either undecided or might yet change their mind. The parties seem to agree that around

Sean Kemp

Westminster’s obsession with US politics is both embarrassing and foolish

Can you sense it? That thrill in the air? The feeling that suddenly the Labour campaign is just somehow more exciting? Yes, that’s right, David Axelrod is back in the country. Try to control yourselves. The Guardian recently revealed that 26 April was the date that The Axe was landing back in the UK. And not a moment too soon, as some in the Labour party have started to question what Obama’s former adviser has been doing for his reported £300,000 apart from the odd conference call. The idea that the election was a fight between the American and Lynton Crosby – who, whatever you think about him, clearly eats, breathes and

Steerpike

Camilla Long’s Have I Got News For You appearance causes problems for Ukip

After Camilla Long claimed on last Friday’s Have I Got News for You that she had spent more time in South Thanet than Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader failed to see the funny side. In fact such offence was taken by party members that one of his team took the unusual step of calling in Kent Police. The police have since rejected the complaint and word now reaches Steerpike that fractions are forming in the party over whether it was wise to report the incident in the first place. ‘We didn’t report her,’ insists a source close to the leader. Instead they say that they merely ‘reported the incident, which is

Isabel Hardman

Douglas Carswell interview: Stop using my father to make cheap political points

Douglas Carswell seems rather excited about the Spectator following him around as he campaigns in Clacton, but it’s not clear whether that’s just because our interview starts in McDonald’s. Tucking into a quarter pounder with cheese, the Ukip candidate seems on good form, expounding at length on the failure of mainstream politicians to connect with the electorate, and enthusing about his vision for the party in the future. But a little later, as we plod around the streets of the constituency, his mood changes. He’s getting a lot of messages and calls about a BBC foreign affairs debate that he has pulled out of at the last minute. With each

Sebastian Payne

Podcast: the election where everybody loses and Boris’s vision for conservatism

With one week to go, are the Conservatives back on track to being the biggest party? In this week’s View from 22 podcast, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss the state of the election campaign with one week till polling day and which party has the momentum. Fraser and James have also interviewed Boris Johnson in the magazine this week, who reveals his concerns about inequality — is this the opening salvo for his leadership campaign? Based on Boris’s comments, Tim Montgomerie and Ryan Bourne also debate the future of conservatism and what ideas the next Tory leader might embrace in his or her manifesto. Is finding a different role for the state a core part of this? And how much does the legacy

Wednesday

29 Apr 2015

Fraser Nelson

Economic confidence comes flooding back, just in time for the election

If there is any link between economic optimism and politics than David Cameron should easily win the general election next week. Today’s figures show consumer confidence around 30-year highs. The number who think now’s a good time to by a house (above) is surging. Not since 1987 have we had so many saying that the UK’s general economic situation has improved over the last 12 months. As Michael Saunders of Citi puts it (pdf):- With strong job growth (especially full-time employment), record level of vacancies and rising real wages, the “feel-good” factor is clearly back. It’s odd to think that, even with all of this going on, the election still hangs

Steerpike

Nigel Lawson criticises the Tories’ election campaign

Given that Nigel Lawson served as chancellor of the exchequer in Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet, Mr S suspects that the Conservatives will have hoped that they could rely on Lawson for a vote of confidence as polling day approaches. Alas, Lawson says that he has been disappointed by the manner in which the Conservatives have conducted their election campaign. Writing in the latest issue of The Spectator, Lawson says that on a recent trip to New York, Americans voiced surprise that the Tories were yet to achieve a significant lead in the polls given the strong state of the British economy: ‘During my round of New York engagements, there was, inevitably, a fair amount of US interest

Sebastian Payne

Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg still locked in tight battles to win their seats

Will there be a Portillo moment on election night with any of the party leaders? Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are two most likely leaders to lose and Lord Ashcroft has polled Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet to find out how safe the Lib Dem and Ukip leaders are. As the chart above shows, Farage and Clegg are still in very tight races. In Sheffield Hallam, Labour is now just one point ahead of the Lib Dems — compared to a three point lead in November last year. In South Thanet, Ashcroft puts Ukip two points behind the Tories, compared to a one point lead in November 2014. Although the

Isabel Hardman

Can pavement politics save some Scottish Labour MPs?

If some polls are to be believed, Labour won’t exist in Scotland after next week. All suggest it will be a considerably pruned branch of the party. Whatever happens, the campaign Scottish Labour has had to fight since the referendum shows a party coming to terms with the shocking realisation that safe seats cannot stay safe if you don’t bother to talk to voters in them. One Labour MP is notorious among colleagues for boasting in the years before this election that his canvassing involved walking around in the high street of his constituency and marking down people who greeted him as Labour voters. What a shock this election, where

James Forsyth

Andy Burnham still can’t answer questions on Mid Staffs

Today’s health election debate on the BBC just now was one of the feistiest we have seen in this campaign. Andy Burnham, Jeremy Hunt and Norman Lamb clashed repeatedly — and passionately — over Mid Staffs and the appropriate role for the private sector in the NHS. Burnham was on hectoring form throughout the debate. But he struggled so badly to answer Andrew Neil’s questions about Mid Staffs that one was left feeling he’ll never be able to win a Labour leadership contest until he has a proper answer to these questions. listen to ‘Andy Burnham and Jeremy Hunt clash on Mid Staffs’ on audioBoom

The Spectator

Heathrow Hub’s case for London airport expansion

Britain’s airport wars are still ongoing. After the election, the Davies Commission is expected to announce how to expand capacity. The main options are new runway at Heathrow, at Gatwick, or ‘Heathrow Hub’ (extending Heathrow’s runway). Each of them is keen to get their case across to Spectator readers – so much so that they have each asked The Spectator to examine their proposals. Heathrow Hub has invited Isabel Hardman, the Spectator‘s assistant editor, to make a short film on its case, and its challengers. Here it is.

Sebastian Payne

The ‘Milibrand’ interview does nothing but trash Labour’s standing

Ed Miliband’s interview with Russell Brand has been released and it’s rather depressing. Not that Miliband messed up — in fact, he is very on message and sticks to Labour’s party lines. It’s simply not very enlightening. Brand comes across as the mad man cornering the boring person in a pub because he thinks he might agree with him. It’s business as usual from Brand, who ranted about the ‘unelected powerful elites that really control things behind the scenes’, the ‘geopolitical influences’ and ‘transnational corporations’. Miliband told Brand he is ‘totally wrong’ on people who pull the strings, pointing out that equal pay, women’s rights and gay rights came about thanks

Sebastian Payne

Election podcast special: eight days to go

In today’s election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss David Cameron’s ‘tax lock’ pledge, Ed Miliband’s promise on tax credits and why his interview with Russell Brand was such a bad idea. We also look at the latest opinion polls which suggest Scottish Labour is set to be wiped out next week, and discuss why there might be some good news in store for the Scottish Tories. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Ross Clark

Politicians seem to fetishise laws that bind their own hands

What is the point of government passing a law to stop it doing something when it can just as easily repeal it? If George Osborne were still to find himself Chancellor after the election I can’t see that we would feel any more bound to abide by a law fixing the rates of income tax, National Insurance and VAT than he would by a pledge to the same effect. If he ever fancied notching up VAT in a future budget all it would take is a clause in the finance bill excusing himself from such a law. In any case, we haven’t yet seen the text of the tax-fixing bill

Steerpike

Yvette Cooper: Ed Balls Day has become too commercial

After Tristram Hunt subjected himself to an array of questions from Mumsnet users on Monday, today was Yvette Cooper’s turn in the hot seat. Although the Labour MP had managed to organise the Q&A so as not to clash with her husband’s Ed Balls Day, she could not escape the topic. One user – by the name of ‘rubbishdeskhoover’ – was unimpressed by yesterday’s celebrations which saw the shadow chancellor tweet his name for the fourth year, while Pizza Hut even joined the fun by creating a special pizza to mark the occasion: Good morning, @EdBallsMP. Your pizza is ready. Many happy returns… #EdBallsDay pic.twitter.com/wTDKY682tb — Pizza Hut UK (@pizzahutuk) April 28, 2015 Taking to the

Isabel Hardman

Labour’s ‘secret plan’ attack exploits Tory silence on welfare cuts

A common technique in gothic horror novels is to avoid describing whatever monster the author is trying to scare readers with. The imagination is even more powerful than the pen, and silence on the details of the beast means those reading will concoct their own personal nightmare as they read on. This was always the risk with the Tory refusal to set out the detail of the £12 billion of welfare cuts they plan to make in the next Parliament. Ed Miliband is trying to exploit that lack of detail today by launching a ‘dossier’ that sets out the ‘secret plan’ the Tories have on welfare cuts. In his speech this

Sebastian Payne

New poll suggests SNP will win all 59 seats in Scotland

Just when Scottish Labour didn’t think it could get any worse, a new poll suggests they are now facing total wipe out next Thursday. According to Ipsos MORI/STV News, the SNP is now up to 54 per cent of the vote share — up two points since their last poll in January. Punching these numbers into Electoral Calculus suggests the Nats will win all 59 seats and wipe out the other parties. Another prediction website, ScotlandVotes, suggests that this vote share would leave one Liberal Democrat MP after polling day. Unlike Lord Ashcroft’s recent polls north of the border, this survey was conducted across the whole of Scotland — not just

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: eight days to go

There will be more promises from the party leaders today — plus a comedic twist. David Cameron will pledge a five year ‘tax lock’ that will be enshrined in law, while Ed Miliband will attack the proposed £12 billion welfare cuts and promise to raise working-age tax credits in line with inflation. And then we have Russell Brand. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The taxman banished David Cameron doesn’t appear to feel confident that the electorate believes his promises. Pledging to freeze taxes is something new for the Tories, but the Prime Minister is

A blooming good offer

Thursday

Wednesday