2015 general election

Wednesday

Steerpike

Revolt on the Right: Award-winning Ukip authors bicker about party’s election chances

At the Political Book Awards earlier this year, Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford took home the £10,000 top prize for their book on the rise of Ukip, Revolt on the Right. However, word reaches Steerpike that despite their success the literary duo have rather diverging views when it comes to their subject. In fact, the pair’s bickering on social media caused one user to liken it to ‘the Twitter version of seeing parents having a row’. Ford, who lectures at the University of Manchester, took to Twitter to assert that he is the co-author of the book after Goodwin failed to name check him in a tweet: .@GoodwinMJ @DPJHodges I co-authored that and I think this

Tuesday

Hugo Rifkind

Like it or not, Russell Brand is the future of media (Ed Miliband seems to like it)

I write at a difficult time. The balls are in the air, but we know not where they will land. Perhaps, by the time you get to read this, more will be clear. Right now, however, we know only that Ed Miliband has been interviewed by Russell Brand. We do not yet know what he said. Or what Brand said. Probably he said more. ‘That was interesting enough, but Russell Brand was a bit restrained’ is something that nobody has said, after any conversation, ever. Most likely he’ll have quite liked Ed Miliband. They’ll have friends in common. Probably even girlfriends, what with them both having such voracious sexual appetites.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Fallon refuses to back Labour on Trident as he plays politics with defence

Things have come to a pretty pass when the two party spokespeople who experience the worst drubbing in a debate are the current Defence Secretary and the Green party representative. In today’s Daily Politics defence debate Rebecca Johnson ended up, after some considerable flapping and obfuscation, disowning a section of the Green party’s website which said membership of a jihadi organisation shouldn’t be illegal. And Michael Fallon repeatedly refused to say that the Tories would support Labour in a vote on Trident renewal, then struggled under tough questions about the Tory failure to commit to spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence. Vernon Coaker also dodged questions on Labour’s

Philip Cowley

Numbers, not arguments about legitimacy, will decide who enters No.10 after May 7

Lyndon Johnson’s first lesson of politics was to be able to count. It’s something that many of those commenting on the various post-election scenarios could do with remembering. Let’s start with those who think that there is some overriding importance in being the largest single party and that this gives you the right to form a government, even if you lack a majority. It is never clear what people expect the other parties to do in such a scenario. Assume, for example, that after the election the Conservatives are the largest party but without a majority, and there is an anti-Conservative block that is larger. Do we really expect the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Trident has become a political weapon in certain constituencies

One constituency where the Tory attacks about a possible deal between Labour and the SNP work very well is Barrow and Furness, where Labour’s John Woodcock is standing for re-election. The seat includes shipyards where the new Trident submarines would be built, and so any suggestion that Labour might scale back its commitment to Trident is hugely potent for the local campaign. A couple of days after Michael Fallon launched his poorly-received attack on Ed Miliband, in which the Defence Secretary warned that the Labour leader had stabbed his brother in the back and could therefore quite easily stab the UK in the back by forging a deal with the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Why slow GDP figures could be good for the Tories

Are today’s GDP figures really a blow to George Osborne as some of his critics are claiming? The Office for National Statistics said today that GDP grew by just 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year, which is half what it was in the last three months of 2014. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/oNkRJ/index.html”] What’s holding growth back is weak output in the construction, industrial and services sectors. Ed Balls managed to resist launching into his Ed Balls Day celebrations too early and said ‘these figures show they have not fixed the economy for working families’. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/FUzL6/index.html”] The figures do suggest that the economy isn’t going gangbusters. But politically,

Sebastian Payne

Election podcast special: nine days to go

In today’s election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss David Cameron’s ramped up rhetoric on the SNP threat to the Union, the Tories’ promise to create 50,000 new apprenticeships from Libor fines and Labour’s latest attempts to talk about controlling immigration. We also briefly look at the Liberal Democrats ‘red lines’ for future coalition negotiations and Ukip’s attempts to woo voters in the north. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Will Cameron’s ‘10 days to save the Union’ message work?

David Cameron continues his anti-SNP campaign today, launching what the Times calls his ‘strongest attack so far’ on a Labour-SNP government. The Prime Minister tells the paper that there are ‘ten days to save the United Kingdom’, which is an echo of Tony Blair’s ‘24 hours to save the NHS’ and William Hague’s less successful ‘last chance to save the pound’. The Conservatives are increasingly talking about the SNP and spending money on billboards featuring a thieving Alex Salmond because they say this message is cutting through in marginal constituencies. But the SNP’s retort is that even if people are bringing the SNP up on the doorstep, it may make

Steerpike Steerpike

Why would Ed Miliband even want to woo Russell Brand?

The Sun reports this morning that Ed Miliband recently made a late-night visit to Russell Brand’s £2 million home. Details on what was discussed remain unknown, although Labour has now confirmed that rather than Miliband’s own François Hollande moment, or a pre-emptive mansion tax inspection, it was in fact an interview. A friend of mine lives opposite Russell Brand and snapped this picture of Ed Milliband leaving his house…urm pic.twitter.com/kHGVWFbpVZ — Elisa Misu Solaris (@ElisaMisu) April 27, 2015 However, if Miliband is to appear in an episode of Brand’s online show The Trews, it’s unclear what the Labour leader hopes to gain from it. Is this really an endorsement any serious potential Prime Minister would want?

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: nine days to go

David Cameron is upping the ante on the SNP today, warning voters there’s just ‘ten days to save the United Kingdom’ — despite the fact the election is now nine days away. Or maybe he is counting until the coalition negotiations begin? Ed Miliband on the other hand will add some meat to his promise that Labour will put ‘controls on immigration’. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The Battle for Britain, cont. David Cameron is staunchly defending the Union today, warning in an interview with the Times that the SNP is ‘not like another party that

Louis Reynolds

Rural people have been let down by both Labour and the Conservatives

In 1997, Labour could assert with a straight face that it was ‘the party of the countryside’, because it genuinely competed with the Tories for rural votes. Today, an electoral map of England is a sea of blue rural constituencies dotted with clusters of urban red. Looking forward to May, the latest polls have the two main parties neck and neck, with the Tories on 34 per cent and Labour one point behind. This reflects an unhealthy urban-rural political divide that has rarely been more extreme. Labour is as unlikely to make in-roads into rural Conservative heartlands as the Tories are to win large numbers of seats in northern urban seats, making a clear victory

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Ukip struggling in key target seats

Ukip is expected to do well in a handful of seats, but where? Lord Ashcroft has polled four marginal seats where he’s previously found the people’s army doing well. Two of the seats are top targets for Ukip — Castle Point and Great Yarmouth — but the Tory peer has found that the party has failed to move into first place with under two weeks to go. In Castle Point, where Ukip launched its election campaign earlier this year, Ashcroft has found the Tories are now ahead by five points. There has been a 17 per cent swing to Ukip but it’s not enough to put them into first place. Use the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

PM pumps up the passion after porridge and panic

David Cameron is known as the ‘essay crisis’ Prime Minister, and today he did little to dispel that impression. With just 10 days to go until the election, Cameron produced a passionate, excited speech in which he insisted that he was ‘pumped’ about the election and about fighting Labour. Afterwards, when asked what he’d had for breakfast, he roared ‘PORRIDGE!’ with alarming fervour. This is the second furiously enthusiastic speech the Prime Minister has given in as many days, and it represents a significant shift in his tone after accusations of a boring and lacklustre campaign. Boring is, of course, the way Lynton Crosby would rather have it. In 1992,

Robert Smith

Teflon Theresa and outraged Yvette battle over immigration and police cuts

For the longest serving Home Secretary in 50 years, Theresa May’s record in government is not without its blemishes. On this afternoon’s Daily Politics home affairs debate she made a clear recognition of the government’s failure to meet the Conservative manifesto promise to reduce immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’. May said: ‘We’ve accepted that we have failed to meet that particular target… [But] if you say to me, Andrew, that there’s nothing we have done on immigration, then you’re wrong. What we have done is not met that particular target. ‘Net migration from outside the EU is lower than it was in 2010, but one of the reasons is

Steerpike Steerpike

Did David Cameron take a dig at the BBC’s Robert Peston?

After Mr S’s colleague Camilla Swift revealed how the BBC misquoted David Cameron as saying he loved foxhunting when he appeared on the Andrew Marr Show, they were accused by some of showing ‘left-wing bias’. Now a new row is brewing between the Tories and the BBC. Perhaps still angry about the BBC’s behaviour two weeks ago when Marr interrogated Cameron about his ‘favourite’ sport, this morning the Prime Minister appeared to take a dig at the corporation’s economics editor. Speaking at the Conservatives’ small business launch, Cameron told small business owners: ‘You are responsible for turn around. Small businesses, entrepreneurs, the grafters. A really big thank you for what you’ve done. 5,000 businesses wrote in to

Ross Clark Ross Clark

The planning system distorts the housing market more than anything Miliband could dream up

How foolish of Ed Miliband to try to pervert the free market in housing with his rent controls. There is a slight problem with this analysis, which we have heard ad nauseam from the Conservatives and from the right in general over the past 24 hours. We don’t have a free market in housing and we haven’t had for at least 65 years, when the planning system came into being. Yes, rent controls would come with the risk of reducing the supply of rental property, pushing up rents and creating a black market in properties sublet at lower than the officially-approved price. But the effect of Miliband’s reforms (which in

Steerpike Steerpike

David Cameron admits he cries at the Sound of Music

This morning the PM turned on the passion in a shouty performance in front of a room full of accountants. Complaints from the lower orders about a lack of zing to the campaign have clearly reached the top of the Tory tree as the new emotional Prime Minister was not done there. Cameron went on to admit in an interview with Classic FM that he cries when he watches the Sound of Music, when those brave Austrian patriots declare their love for their national flower: ‘I do cry in films, The Sound Of Music. As soon as we get on to Edelweiss I’m reaching for the Kleenex.’ With the songs lyrics including the line ‘Bless

Sebastian Payne

Tories six points ahead in new Ashcroft poll and three points ahead according to ICM

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft’s latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It’s worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the

Sebastian Payne

Election podcast special: 10 days to go

The general election campaign has entered the final stretch and each day between now and polling day, we’ll be producing a short lunchtime podcast looking at the day’s campaign developments. Today, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss Labour’s new housing pledges, the 5,000 small businesses backing the Tories, the hysterical talk of the SNP threat — as well as the unfathomable state of the opinion polls. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Steerpike Steerpike

Tristram Hunt: I am hugely in favour of yummy mummies

After Gordon Brown was famously forced by Mumsnet members to reveal his favourite biscuit, Mr S was intrigued to see that Tristram Hunt had agreed to a Mumsnet chat of his own this lunchtime. Brown was so thrown by the chat back in 2009 that he had to take a 24-hour break after he was asked 12 times to name his favourite biscuit. Hunt seems to have held his nerve better. The chat began above board, with parents asking Hunt what he would do to ensure teachers stay in the profession. He promised to ‘cut down on the bureaucracy getting in the way of teaching’ in order to guarantee that teachers ‘regain their love of the job’.