Bank of england

Economists called Brexit wrong, but so did the Bank of England

As confessions go, it was hardly the most revelatory. Cheryl Fernandez-Versini admits she has problems with relationships. Sir Philip Green accepts he made a bit of a hash of BHS. Ed Miliband owns up to struggling with bacon sandwiches. They would have all come as more of a surprise than the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, finally admitting that when it came to forecasting the impact of Brexit they were a couple of alphas short of a full algorithm. Well, thanks Andy. Who knew? The problem is that Haldane, and more importantly the Bank, is still deflecting the blame. Haldane argues there is a general problem

The Bank of England needs to pay more mind to the hard-pressed

When the Bank of England is not indulging employees with the kind of taxpayer-funded hospitality that would make a bailed-out banker blush, its lofty and unelected officials might like to consider how they could help us ordinary mortals in the new year.  It has emerged that the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street spent nearly £100,000 of our money on its annual summer party, just weeks after the Brexit vote tossed the country into economic and political turmoil.  Following a Freedom of Information request, the central bank admitted that it lavished more than £94,500 (excluding VAT) on food, entertainment and the venue for the Governors’ Day event, with nearly another £4,500

Don’t panic, Jacob Rees-Mogg will never replace Mark Carney

For Mark Carney to have returned to-Canada after five years as Governor, as he originally planned, rather than serving until 2021, might by now have looked like a win for his critics — so adding an extra year, up to the end of Brexit talks in 2019, is a sidestep worthy of Strictly. Meanwhile, I was delighted to find ‘Might it be worth a flutter on Governor Rees-Mogg?’, the punchline of my last item on this subject (22 October), bouncing around the global media. Bloomberg reported ‘serious political magazines’ speculating that backbench Tory MP and Carney critic Jacob Rees-Mogg might be the Canadian’s replacement; the Daily Mail cited-Bloomberg likewise; and

The Bank of England made a mistake. It should have admitted it

The currency has been devalued by more than 30 per cent. Interest rates have been pushed all the way up to 20 per cent. The IMF is standing by with an emergency package, and capital controls and dollar rationing have been maintained. It has been a heck of a morning for the pound – although, fortunately enough for most us, the Egyptian rather than British one. Over here, it has all been rather quieter. The Bank of England, as most people expected, has stuck with its decision over the summer to take rates all the way down to the 0.25 per cent. It now looks inevitable that it will hold

Martin Vander Weyer

It’s time for Hammond to send a ruthless hit squad into RBS

The new series of The Missing is surely the gloomiest television of the year. But it has nothing on the endless saga of RBS, which seems to use the same disturbing time-shift device: whenever there’s a horrible new plot twist, you have to spot whether we’re in 2008, 2011 or today. The crippled bank, still 73 per cent state-owned, has lost £2.5 billion in the first three quarters of this year, having just paid out another £425 million in ‘litigation and conduct’ costs chiefly relating to mortgage-backed securities hanky-panky in the US. Since its bailout eight years ago, it has lost considerably more than the £46 billion of taxpayers’ money

What the papers say: The ‘posturing governor’ stays put

Mark Carney’s decision to stay on as Bank of England Governor until 2019 has been widely welcomed. But not everyone is happy about the news. The Daily Mail accuses Carney of being a ‘posturing governor’ and says the staging of his announcement yesterday was in line with much of his conduct: ‘designed to generate maximum publicity’. The paper says that while some were concerned at the possibility of uncertainty in the markets if he’d walked away, would it be any worse than ‘his relentless doom-mongering’? The Mail suggests Carney will be forever tainted by his conduct during the referendum, which it says was at its worst when he joined in with George Osborne’s

Mark Carney reveals his personal Brexit plan

After days of speculation – and months of simmering tensions – over the Governor of the Bank of England’s future, Mark Carney has finally revealed his exit plan. Following a meeting with the Prime Minister, Carney announced that he will stay on as Governor of the Bank of England only until June 2019 – three months after the UK is expected to leave the European Union. In a letter to the Chancellor, Carney expressed his wish to extend his current five-year term by one year in order to ‘help contribute to securing an orderly transition to the UK’s new relationship with Europe’. While some Brexiteers will no doubt be cheering

The markets couldn’t care less whether Mark Carney stays or goes – and neither should we

A crash in the pound, with sterling trading down at $1.15, and heading to parity. A spike in gilts, and a flight by bond investors in a panic over the state of the British economy. As the headlines are dominated by reports that the Governor of the Bank of England might decide to pack his bags and return to his native Canada as early as next year, there has been lots of speculation about the havoc that might inflict on our already jittery post-Brexit economy. Right now, no one seems to know whether Mark Carney is likely to stay on as Governor beyond his initial five-year term or not. But

It’s time for Mark Carney to go

Oh dear. Mark Carney is irritated. His proud independence has been challenged. The Prime Minister had the temerity to admit that she was not altogether thrilled with his ‘super-low’ interest rates and quantitative easing. These policies meant that people with assets got richer, she pointed out. ‘People without them suffered… People with savings have found themselves poorer.’ Mr Carney found this intolerable and haughtily rebuffed her, saying, ‘The policies are done by technocrats. We are not going to take instruction on our policies from the political side.’ Back in your box, Mrs May. Carney’s in charge! As they clash, it is increasingly hard to remember what a bright day it

Have our thin-skinned times killed off satire for good?

Is satire dying? Zoe Williams asks in the Guardian whether the shrinking of permissible speech is killing comedy. To make her point, she wonders if the mid-1990s satire The Day Today would be tolerated in 2016 and whether ‘its surrealism belongs to another age’. The spoof news show, which in some ways seems slightly prophetic 20 years later, was sometimes edgy, and often surreal, and Williams recalls one scene in which a presenter announces in a dead pan manner that the Bank of England had issued ‘an emergency currency based on the Queen’s eggs, several thousand of which were removed from her ovaries in 1953 and held in reserve’. But, as she says: ‘If you told

Martin Vander Weyer

The Nissan test: can we really negotiate Brexit sector by sector?

I wrote last month that a key test of Brexit success will be whether Nissan is still making cars here in ten years’ time. A few days later, Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn issued a warning that ‘If I need to make an investment in the next few months and I can’t wait until the end of Brexit, then I have to make a deal with the UK government.’ The investment decision he referred to — expected by Christmas, which means before Brexit talks even begin — is whether to build the next Qashqai model at Sunderland or in France, to avoid tariffs on exports when we leave the single market.

Carney must go

Oh dear. Mark Carney is irritated. His proud independence has been challenged. The Prime Minister had the temerity to admit that she was not altogether thrilled with his ‘super-low’ interest rates and quantitative easing. These policies meant that people with assets got richer, she pointed out. ‘People without them suffered… People with savings have found themselves poorer.’ Mr Carney found this intolerable and haughtily rebuffed her, saying, ‘The policies are done by technocrats. We are not going to take instruction on our policies from the political side.’ Back in your box, Mrs May. Carney’s in charge! As they clash, it is increasingly hard to remember what a bright day it

Don’t listen to the doom-mongers: A rise in inflation isn’t some kind of crisis

It takes quite a determined Cassandra to see the rise in Consumer Prices Index (CPI) from 0.6 per cent in August to one per cent in September as some kind of crisis, not that that will stop the holdouts of the Remain campaign from trying to do so. When CPI fell below one per cent at the end of 2014, you might remember, there were dark warnings about the threat of deflation – with the horrors that would imply for borrowers, who would see the real value of their debts increase. Now, some are trying to present a rise to one per cent as bad news, with former Monetary Policy

Sending shockwaves around the world’s currency markets with Mark Carney

If only all my stories had as much impact. My interview with Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, sent shockwaves around the world’s currency markets. The Canadian was just three months into his new role as Britain’s most powerful unelected official when he visited Leeds to explain the central bank’s then new policy of forward guidance to a group of business leaders at the offices of one of the city’s Big Six law firms. In person, Carney was smooth, confident and assured, just as you would expect from someone who spent his formative years at Goldman Sachs. I had 10 minutes with the Governor, who was accompanied

The new world of work is a jungle but don’t call workers ‘animals’

The TUC general secretaryFrances O’Grady doesn’t get a lot of airtime. Compared with predecessors a generation ago, such as Vic Feather and Len Murray, she is all but invisible. But in her Congress speech at Brighton on Monday, she struck a note that must have resonated with many of the public who have no idea who she is when she spoke of ‘greedy businesses that treat workers like animals’. She was referring to zero-hours contracts, below-minimum-wage rates such as those effectively paid at Sports Direct’s Shirebrook warehouse, and rock-bottom fees per delivery offered to self-employed Hermes parcel-van drivers and Deliveroo fast-food couriers. And of course anyone not fundamentally opposed to

Mark Carney has a shot at redemption tomorrow. Will he take it?

There are not many predictions that are safe to make in the financial markets. M&S’s results will always be disappointing is perhaps one. Sir Philip Green will never apologise for anything is another. And there is one more that can now be added to the list. The Bank of England won’t raise interest rates when it meets this week. But it should. Why? Because the ‘emergency’ post-Brexit cut is already looking like an over-reaction. In truth, the Bank’s Governor Mark Carney is already looking dangerously over-committed to Project Remain. The best thing the Bank could do now would be to admit that it had a made a mistake – and

From paper to the £5 polymer: the origins of the banknote

Kublai Khan, said Marco Polo, had ‘a more extensive command of treasure than any other sovereign in the universe’. There were no jangling pockets of coins in Kanbalu. Bark had been stripped from the mulberry trees and beaten into paper notes. The notes carried delicate little pictures of earlier currency — long, frayed ropes weighed down with coins. It was as though they were mocking the old ways. Paper money had been produced in China from as early as the 7th century, but that did not stop Marco Polo from gushing that the Great Khan had discovered ‘the secret of the alchemists’. Back home, there was much curiosity but apparently

The Brexit bounce

Next time it comes to redesigning the PPE course at Oxford, I suggest a module beginning with a quotation from George Osborne. It’s something he said to the Treasury Select Committee in May, back when he was still Chancellor: ‘If you look at the sheer weight of opinion, it is overwhelmingly the case that people who look at the case for leaving the EU come to the conclusion it would make the country poorer, and it would make the individuals in the country poorer, too.’ There might be advantages to Brexit, he said, ‘but let’s not pretend we’d be economically better off’. In other words: it wasn’t just George Osborne’s

‘Serene’ Mark Carney tries to take credit for Brexit bounceback

How does Mark Carney feel about his ‘Project Fear’ warnings in the run-up to the referendum? His mild-mannered nemesis Jacob Rees-Mogg probably wouldn’t have been prepared for the Bank of England Governor’s choice of words to describe his mood. Carney was ‘serene’ about how he handled himself before Brexit, he told the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon. But Carney didn’t stop there: he also did his best to bait Rees-Mogg, who has clashed with Carney several times before at these hearings, suggesting the session was being wasted ‘going through counterfactuals’. He then went on to slap down any suggestion from the Tory MP that his warnings had been ‘dire’. Yet

The Bank of Wonderland

What should we think about negative interest rates? What kind of Alice in Wonderland world are we living in when companies and households are paid to borrow and charged if they save? Seemingly crazy, negative interest rates are spreading nonetheless. Implemented by central banks in Europe, Japan and elsewhere, they now apply in countries accounting for a quarter of the global economy. Should we be worried? Could we see negative rates in Britain? Earlier this month, the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time in seven years, from 0.5 per cent to a new record low of 0.25 per cent. Quantitative easing was also restarted, with the