Brexit

For all the leadership positioning, one of the striking things about Tory conference in Manchester was the level of agreement about what the party’s strategy should be. There was almost no one calling for the party to move right. Instead, the emphasis was on how the party could expand its electoral coalition. Boris Johnson and George Osborne may have very different styles, but the argument of their speeches was essentially the same: the Tories have to show that they are the party for low paid workers. This determination to look for new converts, which was the defining feature of David Cameron’s speech too, is a product of the election campaign.

Nigel Farage held another event in Westminster this morning to announce the dates of his ‘Say No – Believe in Britain’ tour, through which he hopes to drum up support for a Brexit. While the venue and message were identical to his press conference in July, the Ukip leader did reveal some details: twelve regional co-ordinators have been chosen, 300 events are planned over the next few months and six million leaflets will be delivered by Christmas. In light of the British Future polling on the toxicity of Ukip’s immigration message, Farage was keen point out he will work with anyone to achieve a Brexit — even Jeremy Corbyn. He said that a Corbyn victory

Nigel Farage emerged from his summer break today to kickstart his party’s No campaign. The Ukip leader hit out at Eurosceptic Conservatives who he believes are lazy and ‘there is no No campaign’ at present. But he won’t be putting himself forward as a candidate to lead the official No campaign —  instead focusing on his grassroots efforts with a tour of the country in September. I caught up with Farage, who appeared refreshed after ‘trying to keep away from people like you’. He denied that by attacking Tories, he is beginning Ukip’s No campaign on a negative footing: ‘You will have seen in national newspaper columns this week a

Barack Obama has given his perennial reminder that Britain should stay in the European Union. In an interview with the BBC, the President of the United States has said it is important for both Britain’s prosperity and influence around the world to remain ‘In’: ‘Having the United Kingdom in the European Union gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union and is part of the cornerstone of institution built after World War II that has made the world safer and more prosperous. ‘And we want to make sure that United Kingdom continues to have that influence. Because we believe that the values that we share are the

Ever since Margaret Thatcher U-turned in the dying days of her premiership, there has been a kind of agreement between Left and Right on what the European Union is. Most Conservatives followed the late-vintage Thatcher. They stopped regarding the EU as a free market that British business must be a part of, and started to see it as an unaccountable socialist menace that could impose left-wing labour and environmental policies on a right-wing government. As many critics have said, the Tory version of British nationalism that followed had many hypocrisies. It did not want foreigners infringing national sovereignty when they were bureaucrats in Brussels but did not seem to mind

People write about ‘Grexit’ and ‘Brexit’ as if they were the same, but they need not be. Grexit is about leaving the euro. Brexit is about leaving the EU. It seems, however, that the Greeks fear that leaving the euro would mean leaving the EU, and so feel paralysed. It simply is not clear what the true situation is. Although Britain has a specific opt-out (as does Denmark), for the other member states, euro-membership is, after a preparatory period is completed, an obligation. Does this mean that, once in the euro, an EU member state cannot leave it? If so, then William Hague’s famous phrase likening it to ‘being in

Dominic Cummings is the man drafted in to put together the putative No campaign for the EU referendum. Cummings has a tendency to surprise and he has done that today with a piece that pushes the idea that the No campaign should say that there would be a second referendum if Britain votes Out. This second vote would be on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. Cummings’ thinking is that this would de-risk voting No. People would be simply rejecting the deal that David Cameron had negotiated rather than voting to leave outright. Cummings sums up the advantages of a second referendum for No thus: This approach might allow NO to

The EU ‘out’ campaigners have two troublesome image problems to contend with: the message of ‘No’ is intrinsically negative and will scare off voters, plus they are looking to change the status quo. Business for Britain, which is expected by many in Westminster to be one of the groups forming the ‘No’ campaign, is attempting to remedy the negativity of a Brexit with its new publication ‘Change or Go’. In the 1000-page report, BfB outlines in detail the changes British businesses want to the UK’s relationship with the EU. It argues that if these changes can’t be won, then it’s time to leave. The report counters the idea put about by ‘In’ campaigners that Britain would

Boris Johnson is back to his old tricks, causing headaches for David Cameron. After the Prime Minister’s confused position on whether ministers should be allowed to take part in the ‘Out’ campaign, the Mayor of London thrown a grenade at the idea that collective responsibility will hold. On his LBC phone-in this morning, Johnson said it would be ‘safer and more harmonious’ to allow ministers to campaign with their conscience: ‘I think in 1975, from memory, I think cabinet ministers were allowed to campaign against staying in and to keep their positions. It seemed to work last time … ‘Just thinking about it out loud, on the spur, of the moment, let

Ukip continues to talk up a big role for itself in the Out campaign. As Britain’s most Eurosceptic party, it is eager to dive into a referendum it has been waiting almost a quarter of a century for, but the extent of its involvement is not clear.The kippers believe that their ground operation will be vital to the Out campaign — one Ukip source points out that all of Ukip’s 45,000-odd members are gearing up for the fight of their lifetime and it’ll be hard for Conservatives to match this. Therefore, if the Brexit campaign has any hope of success, Ukip would argue it has to play a prominent role. And

Ten years ago France was in meltdown shock as the country that prided itself on being the most European and communitaire of all had said a decisive Non to European integration. Jack Straw, then the foreign secretary, phoned Tony Blair with the result in some jubilation. Jack, one of the nicest senior ministers ever, was never much of a Europhile and the French No meant Britain avoided a plebiscite that would also have said No to Europe. What the French said no was called the EU constitution but in reality was just another treaty agreed between member states after arduous negotiations. Curiously the proposed text excluded the words ‘ever-closer union

David Cameron is in Holland and France today trying to pave the way for the renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s EU membership. Number 10 believe that now the referendum is definitely happening, the bill for it was published today, they can get other countries to engage with Cameron’s concerns. As I say in the column this week, Cameron’s renegotiation strategy has become clearer in recent weeks. Rather than trying to address every concern about EU membership, he is – as one Cabinet Minister told me – going to ‘focus on three or four big things and make a really big push on them.’ The fact that Iain Duncan Smith

Exhilarating, isn’t it? A referendum on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union is at hand. For the first time in a generation, there’s a real possibility that Britain might leave. With that prospect so tantalisingly close, it’s tempting to want to rush ahead. ‘Bring it on!’ many regular readers will say. Hold on. Let’s make sure we maximise our chances of winning. Like it, or not, a great many voters – despite all that Brussels red tape and all those ghastly EU commissioners – have yet to be convinced that we should leave. If you think that winning over fifty percent of the votes is easy, just cast your

Before today’s awful events in Paris, the meeting between David Cameron and Angela Merkel was going to be the big news of the day. The German Chancellor does not always observe the usual rules of neutrality when it comes to foreign elections. In 2012, she endorsed Nicolas Sarkozy in a joint TV interview, declaring that it was ‘natural’ to back a fellow Conservative. Now, there was no indication that Merkel was going to offer Cameron similar backing today. But senior Tories were keen to talk up what they were calling ‘das snub’, the fact that Merkel is not meeting with Miliband. (It is also worth remembering that in 2012, Miliband

By rights, Jean-Claude Juncker should be in dire political trouble this morning, not lecturing Britain about paying an extra £1.7 billion to the European Commission. Documents obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists suggest that while Juncker was Prime Minister of Luxembourg, 548 comfort letters were issued to various international businesses about their tax arrangements. These letters allowed multinational companies to get away with paying minimal amounts of tax anywhere but Luxembourg despite the majority of their business being done elsewhere, the ICIJ alleges. The ICIJ claims that more than 340 companies secured secret tax deals with Luxembourg. The ICIJ alleges that the deal with FedEx left 99.75 per

Was that a pop at Hattie? Ed Miliband began PMQs by evoking the centenary of the Great War. ‘We will all be wearing our poppies with particular pride this year,’ he said. And every eye ran along Labour’s front bench to count off the crimson blooms. Balls, poppy. Miliband poppy. Harman, poppy. No, wait. As you were. Harman, no poppy! Her chic, double-breasted grey jacket bore no tribute to the fallen. But I expect it’s a CND thing. All the same, Miliband should send her out to buy one. Tuppence ought to do it. The Labour leader needed a win today. Badly. His poll ratings have dipped to the same

I know some readers have tired of Scotland’s independence debate. That is understandable, even forgivable. It has, after all, been rumbling along for 40 years. There may only be six weeks of campaigning left but these arguments won’t go away. You’ll be hearing them again and again for the next few years at least. This is true even if Scotland does vote Yes next month. Because the argument about Scotland’s place within the Union is really not very different from the argument about Britain’s place within the European Union. Of course the similarities are not absolute but they are significant enough to be striking. And just as Scottish nationalists have