I suppose David Cameron had little choice but to offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. How else could he have held his party together? Indeed, it is possible that he owes some part of his small majority to that promise.
Nevertheless, it will all end badly. I think there is no plausible scenario in which it can end well for Cameron. Indeed, it is entirely possible that having begun this parliament with a majority he – or, rather, his successor – will end it leading a minority administration.
The most important thing to remember is that perhaps a quarter of his backbenchers actually want the Prime Minister to fail. They have no interest in his cockamamie renegotation strategy. Indeed, from their perspective, the feebler the “deal” Cameron strikes the better. There are no conceivable circumstances in which they can be persuaded to endorse the Prime Minister’s line. The renegotiation is, as far as they are concerned, a pointless piece of posturing.
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