Coalition

Monday

James Forsyth

Credit where it’s due

One of the worries of Tory modernisers about the coalition back in May last year was that the Tories would end up being seen as being responsible for all the tough but necessary stuff, eg deficit reduction, while the Lib Dems would claim the cuddly stuff, for example the pupil premium — a policy that was in both the Tory and Lib Dem manifestos.   David Willetts in a piece in the Telegraph today, taken from a speech he’s giving tonight, makes this point anew in the context of the new, frostier coalition relations: “This agenda is shared, so it would be a mistake to get into a game of

Daniel Korski

Can Lansley stay?

The Prime Minister, it seems, is now finally accepting what everyone else has been saying for a long time: that the NHS reforms were dangerous and would hurt the government. If Nick Clegg forced a re-think — even one that is supported by many Tories — then he may, in the end, play a greater part in delivering the next election for Cameron’s party than many triumphalist right-wingers now realise. For CameronCare was badly-timed, poorly-delivered and strikes at the heart of the PM’s message that the Conservative Party can be trusted. Large-scale reforms need time. Time for people to accept a problem. Time for people to accept the solution.  Where

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Lib Dems’ hostage situation

Norman Lamb’s comment on the Daily Politics about the Lib Dems having become a “human shield” for the government sums up the mood on the Liberal Democrat benches. Lamb went onto wonder whether this was inevitable: “Whether that’s inevitably the case for the junior partner I don’t know… But we are in this for the long term.” The bad news for the Liberal Democrats is, I fear, that it is. On Friday I was having a discussion with a senior Labour figure who was explaining how the party was now going to concentrate its fire on Cameron not Clegg. But within two minutes, we were back to discussing the Liberal

Peter Hoskin

It’s all in the cost

I’ve just caught up with Tim Montgomerie’s exhaustive and tremendously insightful account of the successful No to AV campaign. For those CoffeeHousers who haven’t yet had their fill of last week’s referendum and its implications, I’d heartily recommend it. Numerous points stand out, of which Paul Waugh has already highlighted one of the most vivid. But here is another: “Lesser individuals would have crumbled before Fleet Street’s pens but the battle-tested Labour figures in the No campaign and Cameron’s Political Secretary, Stephen Gilbert, gave [Matthew] Elliott the reassurance he needed to stay on course. They were right to do so. The cost arguments against AV moved voters more than any

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The gulf between public opinion and Westminster opinion on Europe

It’s Europe Day today, where the flag of the EU will be flown by 26 of its 27 member states. David Cameron is refusing to join in* — and rightly. Why celebrate an institution to which the British public is hostile? I’ve always found it strange that Euroscepticism is caricatured as a fringe, minority position when the polling evidence is so overwhelming. The European Commission anxiously monitors this, conducting identical polling in all member states — the largest poll in the world. The results are never publicised in Britain because they make clear the depth of public hostility. We have dug a few out, from the Eurobarometer data archives, and

Peter Hoskin

Another European mess for the coalition to deal with

Financial meltdown. As Ben Brogan says this morning, it tends to concentrate the mind. And so it is with the coalition, after days of infighting and spiteful diversion. The meltdown is not our own, of course, but that of the Greeks. And although much will be said by Conservative and Liberal Democrat politicians about how “there, but for the grace of George Osborne,” etc., the real issue for them is simply this: how much are we in for? If Greece requires another bail-out, how much British money might be involved? Osborne himself – speaking across the news channels yesterday – has set out out a firm line. “We certainly don’t

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

The Tories’ intellectual dishonesty over the NHS

Why should Cameron ditch the Lib Dems? Coalition has made his party more radical, more electorally successful – and the worst ideas in the Cabinet come from men with blue lapels. Take Andrew Lansley. His press release today would have been shocking had it come from a Lib Dem, and denounced as dangerous leftist nonsense that renders the government’s overall message incoherent. Ed Balls’ arguments against cuts have routinely been challenged in Coffee House. So we can hardly be expected to applaud when his arguments are plagiarised by a Tory. The hapless Lansley, whose needless and complex heath reform bill has stalled, is today trying to win back the initiative

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why Clegg will get his way on NHS reform

On Andrew Marr this morning, Nick Clegg made clear that changes to the NHS bill are his new priority. He said that there would be ‘substantial’ changes to it and declared that ‘no bill is better than a bad bill.’ I suspect that Clegg will get what he wants on the NHS bill. When I spoke to one senior Clegg ally after the AV vote, I was told that Number 10 is ‘conceding everything to us in that area.’ My source went on to say that because of the Tories’ traditional weakness on the the NHS, the Tories ‘are mortally afraid of a row over the NHS with us on

Peter Hoskin

Huhne on the rack

It may not be reflected in the popular vote, but politics is still mostly about the Liberal Democrats this morning. We have Ed Miliband’s latest sally for their affections. We have the usual veiled threats and dread innuendo from Vince Cable. And then there’s the weird, but piercing, accusation on the cover of the Mail on Sunday: Chris Huhne pressurised others – and, specifically, a constituency aide – to take speeding points on his behalf, as he didn’t want to lose his driving licence. The accusation, it is said, is inspired by rumours spread across Westminster – and now by testimony from Huhne’s former wife. While, for his part, the

Saturday

George Trefgarne

An election before 2015 could soon be illegal

Amazingly, the forces of conservatism derided by Tony Blair, are in the ascendant, their enemies scattering and in retreat. Bin Laden is dead, the oil price tumbling, the Royal Wedding was a triumph and now Labour and the Lib Dems beaten at the ballot box. Surely, we tell ourselves, this is an alignment of the stars, a Conservative moment. David Cameron must seize the day, or at least the year, by abandoning the Coalition and calling a general election soon. Landslide, here we go! Hold your horses. Britain’s electoral machinery is off the road, its parts all over the workshop floor. Thanks to the constitutional tinkering of the Coalition, the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The winners and losers from Thursday’s elections

After every election, the political stock exchange goes into a frenzy trying to work out who is a buy and who is a sell. Thirty-six hours after the polls closed, it is a little clearer who the winners and losers of this election season have been. Here are our selections: Winners Alex Salmond, the biggest winner of Thursday night. Salmond has achieved what the Scottish electoral system was meant to prevent, an overall SNP majority in the Scottish parliament. Salmond now has the votes he needs for a referendum on independence. Even better for him because any referendum ordered by the Scottish parliament would be legally dubious — not that

Peter Hoskin

Weapons-grade Cable

Which Lib Dem can be rudest about the Tories? Chris Huhne, you must admit, gave it a decent shot yesterday, describing his parties’ “extraordinary anger” with their coalition stablemates. Even Nick Clegg had a go, with a little swipe at Thatcherism. But I reckon Vince Cable’s remarks this morning will take some beating. The Tories – on his utterly unscheming, non-partisan account – are “ruthless, calculating and very tribal”. Although he did add that, “that doesn’t mean to say we can’t work with them.” How very broadminded of him. The trick of the next few days will be sifting out the Lib-Con separations that have Downing Street’s blessing from those

Friday

James Forsyth

Lessons for the Lib Dems

Chris Huhne’s behaviour still has everyone at Westminster talking. Earlier in the week, senior Liberal Democrats were saying that once the voting had happened, Paddy Ashdown and the party president Tim Farron would communicate the party’s anger at the behaviour of the No campaign, while the party’s Cabinet ministers began to rebuild relations with their coalition colleagues. Vince Cable, for example, has been far more restrained today than he was during the campaign, blaming AV’s defeat on the failings of the Yes campaign not the No campaign’s tactics. But Huhne either didn’t get these instructions or has chosen to ignore them. He’s just turned in an extremely aggressive performance on

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Three points from a remarkable night

This has been a remarkable election night. To my mind, there are three big stories out of the polls. First, the George Osborne masterminded campaign for a new Conservative majority is on track. AV, barring some shock, has been defeated and the Conservative vote has held up remarkably well in the English local elections. Indeed, right now the Tories have actually gained councilors in England. Add to this that the next election, if the coalition lasts to 2013, will be fought on new constituency boundaries that are more favourable to the Tories and things are looking promising for the party.    The coalition looks secure. Even after last night’s drubbing,

Peter Hoskin

Surprise, surprise … the Lib Dems are taking a battering

If you fell asleep expecting heavy losses for the Lib Dems, then you will not have been disappointed upon waking up. At time of writing, around 100 English councils, comprising roughly 2,400 councillors, have declared their results – and the yellow brigade have already lost four of them, along with 270 councillors. There’s some way to go yet, so the picture could alter, but Labour appear to making sweeping gains, while the Tory vote is holding unexpectedly firm. As it stands, the local wing of Cameron’s party has actually gained a council, along with 22 councillors in the process. Stir in the likely result of the AV referendum, and the

Thursday

James Forsyth

It’s all over bar the counting

The polls have now closed tonight. But there’s no exit poll and no results are expected for a few hours yet. Indeed, I’m almost tempted to say we could do with some of those much talked about electronic counting machines. We are, though, already seeing recriminations over the AV vote. Paddy Ashdown, who is in very fiery form on Question Time, has already told The Guardian that ‘So far the coalition has been lubricrated by a large element of goodwill and trust. It is not any longer.’ In an attempt to bring the temperature down, a no gloating order has come down from Tory high command. Expect to hear an

David Blackburn

Will there be TV debates at the next election?

One might have thought that the TV debates would become an immovable fixture in British general elections. But apparently not. Speaking at the launch of a new study of the 2010 election a couple of nights ago, Adam Boulton said that it was far from certain that they will feature at the next election. Will Straw tweeted the news at the time, but it seems to have slipped through the cracks as attention has been diverted elsewhere. Apparently, broadcasters and the parties have reached an impasse at this early stage in the electoral cycle. The Conservatives are reluctant to recommit themselves to something that they believe contributed to their failure

Peter Hoskin

Boris takes on Dave over London’s strikes

The Telegraph’s James Kirkup has already highlighted Boris’s suggestion, yesterday, that the coalition is being “lily-livered” over strike laws. But, as there has been no let up in the Mayor’s rhetoric today, we really ought to mention it here too. “The government needs to get a move on,” is how he put it this morning, in reference to the sort of legislation that might hinder the RMT and their persistent Tube strikes. Boris’s latest broadsides against the coalition are all the more notable because he and Cameron were united, arm in arm, against the unions only a few months ago. In a joint piece for the Sun in January, they

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Calamity may lead to concessions for Clegg

If the expected happens today, the political debate will rapidly move to whether Cameron should offer some concessions to Clegg to bolster his position. I hear there are two camps in Downing Street on this question with Steve Hilton a particularly ardent advocate of the no more concessions line.   Hilton’s position may surprise some but makes sense when you consider how his public service reform programme has, as Ben Brogan writes today, already been diluted for political reasons.    My current expectation is that there won’t be many concessions to Clegg. One well placed Tory told me last night that “Clegg picked the question and the date. He can

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Your guide to tomorrow’s elections

In light of ICM’s latest poll, Lib Dems might be relieved to hear that tomorrow isn’t all about the AV referendum. But it’s a meagre sort of relief: they’re facing a drubbing in the local elections too. We’ve put together a quick guide to those elections, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, so that CoffeeHousers know what to look out for, and Lib Dems know what to fear. Here it is: England The main question hovering over England’s local elections is: how big will Labour’s gains be? There are around 9,400 seats up for contention, of which the Conservatives currently hold about 5,000; Labour, 1,600; and the Lib