This has been a remarkable election night. To my mind, there are three big stories out
of the polls.
First, the George Osborne masterminded campaign for a new Conservative majority is on track. AV, barring some shock, has been defeated and the Conservative vote has held up remarkably well in the English local elections. Indeed, right now the Tories have actually gained councilors in England. Add to this that the next election, if the coalition lasts to 2013, will be fought on new constituency boundaries that are more favourable to the Tories and things are looking promising for the party.
The coalition looks secure. Even after last night’s drubbing, the Lib Dem leadership is not considering leaving government. Speaking on the Today programme, Paddy Ashdown tuned down his language of recent days and stressed why the party is in coalition in the first place. He and other senior Lib Dems have also been trying to pin the blame for AV’s defeat on Labour, which suggests that they have no desire to bed-hop.
The second story of the past 24 hours is the return of Scottish politics to the national stage. Since devolution the London press has pretty much ignored Scottish politics. But with the SNP heading for an overall majority and with that the chance to hold a referendum on independence this will change.
It’ll be fascinating to see how Cameron handles the prospect of a referendum on independence. Will he argue, as some constitutional scholars argue, that the Scottish parliament doesn’t have the power to hold a vote on independence?
Then, there is the Liberal Democrats. They have had an awful night. They’ve already lost seven seats in the Scottish Parliament and four councils in England.
In the north of England, all the Lib Dem inroads of recent years have been wiped away. The party has done better in the south but the danger for the Liberal Democrats is that they will get squeezed there too if the country is perceived to have returned to two party politics. But the biggest blow to them will come this evening when AV is rejected. Without AV, it is hard to see how the Libs do not lose a very large chunk of their MPs at the next election.
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