Conservative party

Now Lord Ashcroft has withdrawn his funding (£) from the Tory party, what implications does the move have for David Cameron? Much like losing Britain’s AAA rating this week, it’s less about the actual impact for his government but the message it sends out about where they are going. As the Sunday Times reports today, the Tory peer has lost all faith in Conservatives’ ability to win the next election: ‘It comes amid mounting pessimism among Tory supporters about the prospects of victory. Although Ashcroft has not publicly expressed doubts over the party’s ability to win, privately he is said to fear Labour is likely to secure more seats. A source close to Ashcroft said:

By-elections are notoriously hard to call. But everyone who comes back from Eastleigh says the same thing, UKIP are the party with forward momentum. This morning’s Populus poll bears that out. They are in third place with 21 per cent, with the Tories second on 28 and the Lib Dems ahead with 33. But, as the indispensable UK Polling Report points out, if you don’t reallocate some of the undecides to the party they voted for last time, UKIP are doing even better. The numbers then are UKIP 25%, Tories 26% and Lib Dems 31%. As I said in the magazine this week, UKIP are picking up support from all

The United Kingdom’s triple A rating is now lost with one credit rating agency, Moody’s. This is a politically difficult moment for George Osborne. Back in February 2010, he set keeping the triple A rating as one of the key tests of a Conservative government’s economic policy. His opponents will delight in pointing out that he has failed the test he has set himself, while nervousness on the Tory benches about the coalition’s economic strategy will be heightened by this news. Economically, though, I doubt that this will have much impact. In recent weeks, Britain’s debt has been trading more like that of France, which has lost its triple A

The good news for Nick Clegg—and the bad news for David Cameron—is that the Liberal Democrats are racing certainties to hold Eastleigh in the by-election next Thursday. As I say in the magazine this week, the Liberal Democrats’ base in the constituency – they hold every ward in the seat – has given them an insuperable advantage. This victory means that Clegg will be spared the Spring conference crisis that would have followed a defeat there; for if the Lib Dems could lose Eastleigh where they are so well dug in, they could lose anywhere. Cameron, by contrast, will have to deal with an intensely restless party. The Tories’ failure

Andrew Mitchell’s piece in the FT today marks his return to normal politics post-Plebgate. Up to now, Mitchell has confined his post-resignation comments either to his old stomping ground of development or to the sequence of events that led to his premature departure from government. By contrast, today’s piece sees Mitchell getting involved in a frontline political issue, Britain’s relationship with Europe. The article is full of suggestions, joint-sittings of the UK-Polish parliament and meetings of the UK-Dutch Cabinets. But Mitchell is clearly determined to work within the framework set out by Cameron’s Europe speech. No one could say that the articles rocks the boat. But what makes it significant

One of the key strands of the Conservative campaign in Eastleigh is trust: not just because campaigners can remind voters about Chris Huhne, but thanks to a contrast they can draw between Maria Hutchings and Lib Dem candidate Mike Thornton. The party’s latest poster underlines this: it accuses the Lib Dems of ‘facing both ways on development’ and contrasts quotes from Thornton on protecting green spaces and his voting record. The bottom of the poster says: ‘Maria Hutchings has consistently campaigned with local residents against these developments.’ I’ve already grumbled about how silly it is for the two Coalition parties to be scrapping not just over agreed Coalition policy but

So far, MPs have only been able to raise concerns about the effects of the end of transitional controls for Bulgarian and Romanian migrants in departmental questions in the Commons. But one Tory is calling for a full backbench debate on the issue after recess. I understand that Mark Pritchard wants the government to extend transitional controls beyond 2013. He has applied for a debate, and tells me: ‘I am pleased that the government is looking at the pull factors that will draw thousands of Bulgarian and Romanian migrants to the UK. However, time is running out and action rather than words are required. There also needs to be a

John Major knows a thing or two about naughty Tory MPs and Europe. So David Cameron would do well to listen to his Chatham House speech today in which he advised the PM to give up on the ‘irreconcilables who are prepared to bring own any government or any Prime Minister in support of their opposition to the European Union’. He made two particularly strong points: 1. The Prime Minister should start preparing for the negotiation now. Major doesn’t want the UK to leave the European Union, and neither does Cameron. So the former Tory Prime Minister gave a detailed briefing on how Cameron can avoid this. A referendum would

Adam Afriyie’s team have been on the hunt for a press officer, I understand. Even though the backbencher has tried to play down claims that he’s taking aim at the Tory leadership, a source in the communications community says that Afriyie’s camp have been asking individuals to join them as a press spokesman and strategist. The Sunday Times reported at the weekend that Afriyie recently approached Portland Communications asking for advice, but it appears that his team have also been looking to take on someone to represent them and help with their plotting strategy. In this case, I hear the individual they approached turned their offer down.

David Cameron could barely contain himself when he addressed MPs on his victory in last week’s EU budget talks. ‘I didn’t quite get a thank you!’ he jeered at Ed Miliband once the Labour leader had finished his response. ‘But I will give him a thank you for the non-thank you.’ He also mocked Ed Balls for saying ‘hear, hear’ when the PM mentioned the need for spending constraint in the EU as so many of its member states struggled with austerity measures. Obligingly, Balls then cheered ‘hear, hear’ as often as he could, and continued to do so when his own leader started talking. For Ed Miliband, this was

The Conservatives have just published their poster for the Eastleigh by-election. Like most campaigns, they’re capitalising on the fact that the Tory candidate, Maria Hutchings, is local. But in their slogan they’ve also told voters that she’s the one constituents can trust. This shows that, even though Nick Clegg argued in the Q&A after his speech yesterday that the contest shouldn’t be about Chris Huhne, the party wants to make as much of the former Energy Secretary’s exit as they possibly can in this bloody battle. UPDATE, 17.40pm: A rather sardonic Lib Dem source tells me: ‘I have to say, campaigning against Chris Huhne when he’s not a candidate is

Joe Murphy has a rather amusing story in the Standard this afternoon about Tory malcontents’ latest manoeuvres against the Prime Minister. He reports several MPs saying Cameron will need to meet five key tests in order to secure his position as leader. How very democratic of them, measuring the Prime Minister’s performance against a set of targets, rather than just saying they don’t like him, or comparing him to a chambermaid. But when you read what those targets are, you see the problem that the Prime Minister has with his backbenches. This is what Joe’s story says: Several MPs said Mr Cameron needs to pass five “key tests” over the