Europe

Friday

Daniel Korski

Will Britain leave the EU in 2025?

Britain is going to stay in the EU for the next ten years at least. Of that I’m sure. But after that, when David Cameron’s retired, William Hague has taken to writing books, George Osborne’s had his chance and the 2010 intake run the party, the Tories are going to be more openly hostile to the EU. Labour will too; it has a larger reservoir of pro-EU sentiment among its ranks, but one that is shallower than it was. Focusing on the Tories, it is worth noting that nearly all of the names being bandied about as future Tory leaders have a visceral dislike of the EU. By and large

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

DSK resigns from IMF

The IMF has issued three press releases on Dominique Strauss-Kahn since his arrest last week, but none more resonant than the latest. It contains this statement from their now former-Managing Director: Ladies and Gentlemen of the Board, It is with infinite sadness that I feel compelled today to present to the Executive Board my resignation from my post of Managing Director of the IMF. I think at this time first of my wife—whom I love more than anything—of my children, of my family, of my friends. I think also of my colleagues at the Fund; together we have accomplished such great things over the last three years and more. To

Wednesday

Daniel Korski

Keeping the States interested

David Cameron has a good relationship with Barack Obama, which will be on display when the US president visits Britain shortly. They speak regularly and frankly and their senior advisers are in near-constant contact. The idea that the Lib Dems would foist a more “Love Actually” policy onto the coalition has come to naught. Yet Britain’s influence in Washington has waned. This is no fault of the Prime Minister. In fact, his personal diplomacy has probably slowed-down the process. Instead it has to do with structural changes in the US: the coming to power of a “pacific” President, the importance of US-China ties, the emergence of the Tea Party. As

Alex Massie Alex Massie

This Social Union, This Commonwealth

On reflection, perhaps I’ve been a little too quick to discount the historical significance of the Queen’s visit to Ireland this week. Like so much else, it’s a question of perspective. If you’re 80 years old and a citizen of the Irish Republic, perhaps the sight of the Irish President greeting and welcoming the British monarch on equal terms would seem quietly moving and even a cause of some pride. I might think that this was what it was all about and I might see the visit as another confirmation that the Irish state has taken its rightful place in the community of nations. That’s been true for many years,

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The battle over the 4th carbon budget

At the weekend, it appeared that Chris Huhne had won his battle with Vince Cable and George Osborne over whether or not the government should sign up to the 4th carbon budget. This budget covers 2023 to 2027 and is all part of a plan to cut carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050 compared to the level in 1990; they have currently been reduced by 26.5 percent from the 1990 level. But it now appears that the greens in government might have been premature in declaring victory. First, the next set of cuts in UK carbon emissions is dependent on the European Union agreeing to embark on an equally

Daniel Korski

Could a Briton run the IMF?

With Dominique Strauss-Kahn, known as DSK, undertaking scientific and forensic tests to determine if he sexually assaulted a hotel maid, the International Monetary Fund will be run by its No. 2 official, John Lipsky. A former banker, Lipsky was appointed “first” deputy managing director in 2006, and was expected to step down later in the year. But the change at the top will bring the former Permanent Secretary of the Department for International Development, Minouche Shafik, into the limelight. She recently left London to take up a post as deputy managing director at the IMF; she will now take Strauss-Kahn’s place at a meeting with Europe’s finance ministers in Brussels

Saturday

Daniel Korski

The Arab Spring stalls in Syria

With more than 800 people thought to have died in Syria, the situation is getting more and more serious. President Bashar al-Assad has clearly decided he cannot allow any challenge to his regime and has rejected even the advice of friends like Turkey and Qatar to step back from the brink. The military — principally the loyalist 4th and 5th divisions — has now perfected their anti-protest tactics. People in Hama and Homs are fearing that what was visited upon Deera — where the regime cut off water, electricity and telephones before assaulting the city — will happen to them. Yet, for all this, it would be wrong to think

Friday

David Blackburn

Another European squabble looms

There is much excitement in Westminster at the moment about Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall’s campaign to end ‘discards’ under the Common Fisheries Policy. DEFRA and non-governmental organisations estimate that perhaps as much as 60 per cent of a catch will be returned dead to the sea because the CFP’s controversial quota system is based on the amount of fish caught. DEFRA has been pressing the European Commission to reform the quota system for years. At last, they seem to have succeeded. The commission is due to announce in July that the quota system will now be based on the amount of fish landed in port. With that apparently comes a concession to

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Mixed news from the Eurozone

France and Germany’s better than expected growth numbers are making news today. But the divergence within the Eurozone — Estonia grew at 2.1 percent in the first quarter, Portugal shrank by 0.7 per cent — highlights one of the single currency’s biggest problems: how can one interest rate fit all? Economists expect Germany, whose GDP is now larger than before the financial crisis, to continue to outperform the rest of the Eurozone. Given that Germany and France together make up half of the Eurozone economy, interest rates will have to be set with this in mind. But, on the other hand, the Iberian countries and Greece are struggling with austerity

Monday

Fraser Nelson

The gulf between public opinion and Westminster opinion on Europe

It’s Europe Day today, where the flag of the EU will be flown by 26 of its 27 member states. David Cameron is refusing to join in* — and rightly. Why celebrate an institution to which the British public is hostile? I’ve always found it strange that Euroscepticism is caricatured as a fringe, minority position when the polling evidence is so overwhelming. The European Commission anxiously monitors this, conducting identical polling in all member states — the largest poll in the world. The results are never publicised in Britain because they make clear the depth of public hostility. We have dug a few out, from the Eurobarometer data archives, and

Peter Hoskin

Another European mess for the coalition to deal with

Financial meltdown. As Ben Brogan says this morning, it tends to concentrate the mind. And so it is with the coalition, after days of infighting and spiteful diversion. The meltdown is not our own, of course, but that of the Greeks. And although much will be said by Conservative and Liberal Democrat politicians about how “there, but for the grace of George Osborne,” etc., the real issue for them is simply this: how much are we in for? If Greece requires another bail-out, how much British money might be involved? Osborne himself – speaking across the news channels yesterday – has set out out a firm line. “We certainly don’t

Sunday

Daniel Korski

A model for the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge

With the newspapers still full of Royal Wedding pictures, I thought I’d draw CoffeeHousers’ attention to something remarkable: a visit by Queen Margrethe II of Denmark (pictured, left, at Westminster Abbey last Friday) to Helmand Province. That’s right, the 71-year old Danish monarch visited the her country’s troops in late March this year, accompanied by the defence minister. Crown Prince Fredrik persuaded her mother to visit the troops after his own previous trip to the region. In this YouTube clip recorded in Helmand, Queen Margrethe talks to the camera (sorry, it is in Danish) about her experiences in the war-torn province. She pays tribute to the two British soldiers who

Thursday

David Blackburn

The government has a problem with lawyers

The government’s strained relationship with the Civil Service is a recurring story at the moment. Much of the disquiet seems to be the normal tit for tat exchanges immortalised in Yes Minister. In the main, ministers and their advisors express high regard for their officials. But there are some resilient bones of contention between the government and its lawyers. Again, this is not unusual. When Gordon Brown was Chancellor, parliamentary counsel were exasperated by his inability to take decisions. Brown’s budgetary machinations were finalised in a predictably mad rush, which incensed those who had to amend the bill hours before it was put to parliament. However, the growing volume of

Wednesday

James Forsyth

What the GDP figures mean politically

The coalition can breathe a little easier today. The economy returned to growth in the first quarter of this year, avoiding a double-dip recession. It expanded by 0.5 percent which is in the middle of City economists’ forecasts but below the OBR’s prediction of 0.8 percent. Recoveries are generally choppy and particularly so when coming out of a debt-induced recession.  Labour, though, will see these numbers as a further chance to claim that cuts have sucked the confidence out of the economy and that Britain is just bumping along the bottom. This, obviously, isn’t the whole picture. The deficit reduction plan has, crucially, kept the cost of borrowing low and

Friday

Daniel Korski

Reasons for optimism in the Middle East | 22 April 2011

As the Libya crisis drags out, and Bashar al-Assad orders a crackdown in Syria, many have begun to doubt whether the changes seen in Tunisia and Egypt will actually spread to the rest of the Middle East. One former British ambassador recently suggested that perhaps the peoples of the Middle East preferred a mixture of authoritarianism and democracy — and that Britain should accept this; not impose its values and views.   But there is plenty of reason for optimism. The first is to look at the countries that have transformed themselves over the course of the last fifty years. Powerhouses like India and Brazil, but also smaller countries such

Thursday

David Blackburn

Much ado about Brussels, bailouts and budgets

The news that the European Union has decreed that its Budget be increased by 4.9 percent in 2012 ties a knot in the stomach, as I ponder an Easter weekend spent in Margate rather than Majorca due to austerity. As Tim Montgomerie notes, the government is taking this opportunity to assert its euroscepticism. Stern communiqués are being worded; stark warnings are being issued. Behind the scenes, the government has joined with the Dutch, its closest ally on the Continent, to confront the avaricious Commission. Patrick Wintour reports that the French will also oppose the proposed Budget, and the Austrians, Danes, Swedes, Finns and Belgians are expected to lend their weight

Wednesday

James Forsyth

How the Finns might rock the European boat

Normally, the results of the Finnish elections don’t merit much discussion. But the success of the True Finns, the only party to put on seats in the elections there last week, could have a major impact on this country.   The True Finns ran almost as a single issue party during the final week of the campaign. Their message: we’ll say no to bailing out other Eurozone countries. Seeing as they are almost certainly going to be part of the next Finnish government, this rather throws a spanner in the works of Brussels’ plan to bail out Portugal.   Now, as Dan Hannan notes, if the Finns were to veto

Thursday

David Blackburn

Cameron can make common cause to solve Europe’s immigration concerns

Vince, it seems, is Vince. But Britain is not alone in struggling to arrest immigration. A mass of displaced North Africans is descending on Malta and Italy. The United Nations estimate that more than 20,000 people have already landed this year and many more expected. Neither Malta nor Italy can cope alone. On Monday, Malta called for the EU to invoke a 2001 directive that grants migrants temporary protection in cases of ‘mass influx’. Italy also petitioned Brussels to spread the physical burden. The EU did not acquiesce in either case, which especially outraged the Italian government: both Berlusconi and immigration minister Maroni said that the European Union stands and

Wednesday

Daniel Korski

Hague’s return

William Hague has had a good war. He began poorly, as the FCO struggled to evacuate Britons from Libya. But since then, the Foreign Secretary has showed deft diplomatic skill and leadership. The FCO has been focused on Libya and every able-bodied person has been drafted into duty, with diplomats now running the operation in No 10, and the Cabinet Office. On the Today programme, the Foreign Secretary batted away the idea, much loved by realists and pessimists, that because Britain did not know, with forensic detail, how exactly the intervention would end, it should not have become involved. There are many mountains still to climb. European governments need to