George osborne

The good news story that Osborne wants you to hear

  There was much sly amusement earlier this week when George Osborne, responding to the latest growth figures, described Britain as “a safe haven in the storm”. The idea that our high inflation, low growth economy might be a “safe” anything seemed, to many, a grotesque idea. But, in truth, the Chancellor may have had a point — and it’s a point that he’ll want to make again and again as the recovery stumbles on, and as other indicators fluctuate against him. What the Chancellor was referring to, I’m sure CoffeeHousers know, is the interest rates set by the markets on the UK bonds that fund our borrowing. Broadly speaking,

Boris to the fore

Politics has a big, blond hair-do today, with Boris wiff-waffing all across the airwaves. The Mayor of London has already, this morning, called on George Osborne to do more to cut taxes, specifically the 50p rate and national insurance. And he will be leading a series of events, throughout the day, to mark the fact that the Olympic Games are exactly one year away. The Aquatic Centre will be baptised, the medal designs revealed, and general celebration staged across the city. It’s difficult not to see all this as part of Boris’s re-election bid, and perhaps as a marker for his wider ambitions. Although London’s Olympics have not been an

Rengotiating the loan with Ireland

All eyes were on Greece at last week’s crisis summit in Brussels, but other indebted countries took advantage of Angela Merkel’s generous mood. In line with concessions made to Greece, the Irish secured a substantial cut in interest repayments on its bailout loan: the rate has fallen from 6 per cent to somewhere between 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent, and the loan period has been extended from seven to 15 years. This was a long-term goal of Enda Kenny’s government and the renegotiations are being heralded as a major victory. But the matter does not end there. When Kenny first tried to renegotiate the terms of its Eurozone loan in

GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in Q2

Growth in the 2nd quarter was an anaemic 0.2 per cent, in line with recent predictions. Another headline is that manufacturing fell by 0.4 per cent, in line with global slowdown in the sector. Also, the ONS says that growth would have been 0.7 per cent if it weren’t for the Bank Holidays, the fine weather and external economic factors. Now the political fun starts.

The Game of Growth

The release of the Q2 growth figures is still half-an-hour away, but Westminster is already on the boil. Much of the fuss and froth is because it’s expected that the economy barely grew at all between April and June, or perhaps even shrank. But some of it is down to this Telegraph story, which suggests not just that “Downing Street aides [have] become increasingly impatient with a lack of growth,” but that David Cameron’s permanent secretary, Jeremy Heywood, recently held a meeting with Treasury and Business officials, and “read them them Riot Act”. So is the longstanding friendship between Dave and George fraying at the edges? Benedict Brogan says not,

How to get from Plan A to Plan A+

Terrible events in Norway and the ongoing phone hacking scandal have kept the economy out of the media in the last couple of weeks. Coverage of the latest bail-out of Greece last week was comparatively muted, especially considering how important it is for the eurozone and, by implication, the UK. However, if the soothsayers are correct, it is unlikely that the release of the Q2 GDP figures tomorrow will fail to hit the headlines. When the Office for Budget Responsibility published their forecast for the UK economy in April they had forecast growth of 1.7 per cent this year, but signs are that tomorrow’s Q2 data will raise stark questions

Fraser Nelson

What you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s growth figures

By now, George Osborne will have seen tomorrow’s GDP figures and I suspect will be having a mid-afternoon whisky. Ed Balls will be warming up for his demands for a Plan B. “Austerity isn’t working,” he’ll say — and will doubtless tour TV studios with his usual bunch of dodgy assumptions which he hopes broadcasters won’t challenge. Here, as a counterweight, are a few facts and figures about austerity, how harsh it is, etc. — and the case for a Plan A+. 1. Where are the “deep, harsh” cuts? The Q2 GDP data will complete the economic picture for the first year of George Osborne’s time in the Treasury. But

Osborne’s summer of pain starts here

It has mostly been a weekend of terrible and grisly news, especially with the details emerging from Norway about Anders Behring Breivik and his murderous brand of politics. But there was also, behind it all, a slight rebalancing of the British political debate. After weeks of grandmaster-like focus on the phone hacking scandal, our politicians have started talking about the economy again. With the GDP growth figures for the second quarter of this year due out tomorrow, they’re all trying to get their spin in early. There were a number of intriguing interventions, not least George Osborne’s hint that he will cut “very high tax rates” in his Pre-Budget Report

Getting a grip of the crisis

“I’m very worried, this building [the Treasury] is very worried and this government is very worried,” said George Osborne of the unfolding crisis in the Eurozone. In an interview with the FT, the chancellor goes on to say that he is in constant contact with his continental counterparts and urges them once again to “get a grip”. Eurozone leaders are meeting today to discuss further loans to Greece. Three options are being considered: first, an extension of the European Financial Stability Facility; second, private sector creditors re-lend money for a longer period and at a lower rate; third, impose a tax on banks to secure revenue for Greece. Despite a

Brooks comes to Cameron’s aid, perhaps unintentionally

Rebekah Brooks’s  appearance before the Culture Media and Sport Committee was largely uneventful. Most of the questions addressed her editorship of the News of the World, a period about which she cannot openly speak at present because of the criminal proceedings brought against her. However, Brooks was very keen to distance herself from David Cameron. Towards the end of the session, Tory MP Philip Davies asked of the stories circulating about her relationship with Cameron. She took the opportunity to deny them and set the record straight. “I have not visited David Cameron at Downing Street since he has become Prime Minister,” she said and then added that she had visited Tony Blair and

Might Gaddafi shunt Murdoch from the front pages?

Loyal Tories and government types are hoping that the media will soon move on from Murdoch. And the unusually heavy briefings emanating from George Osborne’s office last night were perhaps an attempt to shift the spotlight. But it will take a very gripping story to displace the phone hacking saga, especially if yet more has-been politicians shuffle back into public life to settle old scores with Murdoch. With the British press immersed in this tempestuous revenge drama and the whirl of hypocrisy that surrounds it, you wouldn’t guess that the euro has embarked on a 72 hour ordeal that may decide its future.   But, Rupert Murdoch’s mugshots could yet

Osborne warns Eurozone that decisive action must be taken now

The UK government is becoming increasingly concerned about the situation in the eurozone and the fact that there does not appear to be the political will to address it. One government source complained to me earlier today that “unless they get their act together the eurozone are in danger of fiddling while Rome burns.” Tonight, in a major departure from Britain’s previous softly-softly approach to the issue, George Osborne is issuing a statement calling on the eurozone countries to take “decisive action” to “prevent market uncertainty doing real damage to the world economy.” The Chancellor calls on eurozone countries to: “…now set out in detail how they plan to expand

James Forsyth

The government urges Murdoch to drop the bid

The news that the government is to support Labour’s motion tomorrow calling on Rupert Murdoch and News Corporation to withdraw their bid for BSkyB is a victory for Ed Miliband — and a sign of how all political parties are rushing to distance themselves from Murdoch. George Osborne likes to say that the ‘first thing you have to do in politics is learn to count’ and the truth was that the government didn’t have the votes to block this motion even if it wanted to. Tory MPs had no desire to be seen to be voting for Murdoch in the present climate. But it is still remarkable that the Tories

The story sticks to No.10

Big and bold, the contraction “No.10” appears on most of this morning’s front pages. Or, failing that, the words “former Cameron aide”. After the arrest of Andy Coulson yesterday, it was ever going to be thus. But it’s still a sign of how closely Downing Street is being bound into the phone hacking scandal. Cameron’s call, yesterday, for a judge-led inquiry into the whole, stinking affair — which was, you suspect, intended to deflect some of the heat away from his prime ministerial pulpit — is treated almost as a footnote. It’s all Cameron, Coulson, Cameron, Brooks. There’s more emphasis on Downing Street inside the papers, too. Continuing his recent

The list of alleged victims grows longer as News International’s problems mount

The emotive list of alleged victims of phone hacking has grown again tonight. To Milly Dowler, the parents of the Soham victims, and survivors of 7/7 can now be added the families of British soldiers killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. It should be stressed that nothing has yet been proved in any of these cases. But this story is just getting bigger and bigger and more and more problematic for News International. Among tomorrow’s front pages, the FT’s will — I expect — cause particular concern at the top of the company. It declares ‘Murdoch investors take fright’. This along with the growing international interest in the story, threaten to

The trouble with today’s social care report

Uncertainty reigns. Or at least when it comes to today’s Dilnot Report into social care it does. We largely know what measures will be contained within its pages: a higher threshhold for council-funded care, but a cap (of around £35,000) on how much individuals ought to be liable for. What’s less clear is how the government will respond. Far from welcoming the report wholeheartedly – as has been the recent form with these things – there are signs that the government is set to resist some of its recommendations. Andrew Lansley spoke cagily of it yesterday, hinting that the cap was proving particularly difficult in Coalition Land. George Osborne is

Osborne’s voteless recovery?

This is a strange old recovery. The News of the World has an interesting ICM poll today, showing that 66 per cent think the economy is getting worse. It’s not: GDP is growing and we have the second-highest job creation in the G7. Rather than losing jobs to China, we’re flogging Coventry-made Jaguars to Beijing billionaires (one of the random gems uncovered by our new Twitter feed @LocalInterest). So why is everyone so glum? And why do 52 per cent think that David Cameron and George Osborne are doing “a bad job” with the economy?   In theory, Osborne’s recovery is coming on well. His “cuts” agenda is simply a

Treasury notes reveal Osborne’s position on euro bailouts

There has been much talk about what George Osborne told Alistair Darling about the EU bailout mechanism during those days in May between the election and the coalition being formed. But notes of a conversation between Osborne and Darling released today show that Osborne did urge Darling not to commit to anything that would have a lasting effect on the public finances. Osborne also suggested that the UK government might abstain due to the fact that the country was between governments. To which Darling’s reply was that the Cabinet Secretary’s advice was that the government was the government until a new one actually took office. It remains to be seen

Lagarde’s appointment is a win for Osborne

The appointment of Christine Lagarde as head of the IMF is a diplomatic victory for George Osborne. The Chancellor was one of her earliest supporters, was the first to nominate her and hit the phones hard on her behalf. She will be a useful ally for Osborne in this position especially given how choppy the global economic waters remain. But the UK government also used the IMF nomination process to do some diplomatic horse-trading. The government made it clear that UK support for Lagarde was contingent on Paris agreeing that Britain should have to play no part in the coming bailout of Greece. There will be those who argue that

Poll round-up | 23 June 2011

We haven’t dwelt on the polls very much on Coffee House recently, although we have flagged up some nuggets on Twitter. Here are some of the measures of public opinion that provide an interesting backdrop to Westminster’s machinations: Labour in trouble despite poll leads Two weeks ago I reported on a poll that showed the extent of Ed Miliband’s unpopularity. There have since been a few more polls to compound his unease. ICM found that he had worse approval ratings even than Nick Clegg: YouGov find that 58 per cent of the public think he’s doing a bad job, but perhaps more worrying for “Red Ed” is that he even