Liberal democrats

The Lib Dems’ hostage situation

Norman Lamb’s comment on the Daily Politics about the Lib Dems having become a “human shield” for the government sums up the mood on the Liberal Democrat benches. Lamb went onto wonder whether this was inevitable: “Whether that’s inevitably the case for the junior partner I don’t know… But we are in this for the long term.” The bad news for the Liberal Democrats is, I fear, that it is. On Friday I was having a discussion with a senior Labour figure who was explaining how the party was now going to concentrate its fire on Cameron not Clegg. But within two minutes, we were back to discussing the Liberal

Salmond sees out his rivals

Two down and one to go: that’s the score among the opposition leaders in the Scottish Parliament as the parties continue to sift through the wreckage left by the SNP tsunami last week. Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, didn’t wait long. He announced he was quitting on Friday afternoon, even before the full extent of Alex Salmond’s landslide victory was officially declared. Mr Gray will stay on until the autumn but will go then to allow someone else to start the unenviable task of picking Scottish Labour up from its disastrous performance last week. Yesterday Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, told his parliamentary party that he was

James Forsyth

Why Clegg will get his way on NHS reform

On Andrew Marr this morning, Nick Clegg made clear that changes to the NHS bill are his new priority. He said that there would be ‘substantial’ changes to it and declared that ‘no bill is better than a bad bill.’ I suspect that Clegg will get what he wants on the NHS bill. When I spoke to one senior Clegg ally after the AV vote, I was told that Number 10 is ‘conceding everything to us in that area.’ My source went on to say that because of the Tories’ traditional weakness on the the NHS, the Tories ‘are mortally afraid of a row over the NHS with us on

Huhne on the rack

It may not be reflected in the popular vote, but politics is still mostly about the Liberal Democrats this morning. We have Ed Miliband’s latest sally for their affections. We have the usual veiled threats and dread innuendo from Vince Cable. And then there’s the weird, but piercing, accusation on the cover of the Mail on Sunday: Chris Huhne pressurised others – and, specifically, a constituency aide – to take speeding points on his behalf, as he didn’t want to lose his driving licence. The accusation, it is said, is inspired by rumours spread across Westminster – and now by testimony from Huhne’s former wife. While, for his part, the

An election before 2015 could soon be illegal

Amazingly, the forces of conservatism derided by Tony Blair, are in the ascendant, their enemies scattering and in retreat. Bin Laden is dead, the oil price tumbling, the Royal Wedding was a triumph and now Labour and the Lib Dems beaten at the ballot box. Surely, we tell ourselves, this is an alignment of the stars, a Conservative moment. David Cameron must seize the day, or at least the year, by abandoning the Coalition and calling a general election soon. Landslide, here we go! Hold your horses. Britain’s electoral machinery is off the road, its parts all over the workshop floor. Thanks to the constitutional tinkering of the Coalition, the

James Forsyth

The winners and losers from Thursday’s elections

After every election, the political stock exchange goes into a frenzy trying to work out who is a buy and who is a sell. Thirty-six hours after the polls closed, it is a little clearer who the winners and losers of this election season have been. Here are our selections: Winners Alex Salmond, the biggest winner of Thursday night. Salmond has achieved what the Scottish electoral system was meant to prevent, an overall SNP majority in the Scottish parliament. Salmond now has the votes he needs for a referendum on independence. Even better for him because any referendum ordered by the Scottish parliament would be legally dubious — not that

Weapons-grade Cable

Which Lib Dem can be rudest about the Tories? Chris Huhne, you must admit, gave it a decent shot yesterday, describing his parties’ “extraordinary anger” with their coalition stablemates. Even Nick Clegg had a go, with a little swipe at Thatcherism. But I reckon Vince Cable’s remarks this morning will take some beating. The Tories – on his utterly unscheming, non-partisan account – are “ruthless, calculating and very tribal”. Although he did add that, “that doesn’t mean to say we can’t work with them.” How very broadminded of him. The trick of the next few days will be sifting out the Lib-Con separations that have Downing Street’s blessing from those

It’s official: Britain says NO to AV

The count hasn’t quite finished yet, but the Noes already have it – having crossed the threshold for victory only a few minutes ago. The official Electoral Commission website is lagging a bit behind, but it captures just how comfortable this win has been for the defenders of FPTP. So comfortable, in fact, that you imagine we’re done with major voting reform for at least a generation. And for the Lib Dems, Ed Miliband and the Yes campaign, the recriminations that were simmering away earlier can now come to a boil. What joy. We will update this post as soon as the final tallies are available. UPDATE: Final results shown

Alex Massie

Team A Thumps Team B

What a year! First Fianna Fail in Ireland, now Labour in Scotland. If only all elections were this entertaining and satisfying. At long last the anti-Labour vote was organised properly. Indeed, the SNP have won a lop-sided victory of the type Labour have been accustomed to winning in Scotland, taking more than 70% of the constituency seats on 45% of the vote. This included a victory in Edinburgh South achieved with fewer than 30% of the votes. First Past the Post for the win, eh? Labour spent much of the night complaining that there was a ball and the Liberal Democrats ran away with it and gave it to the

James Forsyth

Lessons for the Lib Dems

Chris Huhne’s behaviour still has everyone at Westminster talking. Earlier in the week, senior Liberal Democrats were saying that once the voting had happened, Paddy Ashdown and the party president Tim Farron would communicate the party’s anger at the behaviour of the No campaign, while the party’s Cabinet ministers began to rebuild relations with their coalition colleagues. Vince Cable, for example, has been far more restrained today than he was during the campaign, blaming AV’s defeat on the failings of the Yes campaign not the No campaign’s tactics. But Huhne either didn’t get these instructions or has chosen to ignore them. He’s just turned in an extremely aggressive performance on

Clegg versus Huhne, at a local level

While the Lib Dems lost control of Nick Clegg’s city of Sheffield to Labour, losing 9 councillors, they won every seat up for election Chris Huhne’s constituency of Eastleigh. They even took Labour’s only council seat in the borough. It is worth remembering that the Lib Dems are waging very different types of battle in these two areas: against Labour in Sheffield and mainly the Tories in Eastleigh. Of all the Cabinet members, Huhne ran probably the most anti-Tory campaign in 2010, and many predicted a strong backlash against the Lib Dems in Eastleigh for going into coalition with them, perhaps with Labour supporters refusing to back them tactically over

James Forsyth

Three points from a remarkable night

This has been a remarkable election night. To my mind, there are three big stories out of the polls. First, the George Osborne masterminded campaign for a new Conservative majority is on track. AV, barring some shock, has been defeated and the Conservative vote has held up remarkably well in the English local elections. Indeed, right now the Tories have actually gained councilors in England. Add to this that the next election, if the coalition lasts to 2013, will be fought on new constituency boundaries that are more favourable to the Tories and things are looking promising for the party.    The coalition looks secure. Even after last night’s drubbing,

Surprise, surprise … the Lib Dems are taking a battering

If you fell asleep expecting heavy losses for the Lib Dems, then you will not have been disappointed upon waking up. At time of writing, around 100 English councils, comprising roughly 2,400 councillors, have declared their results – and the yellow brigade have already lost four of them, along with 270 councillors. There’s some way to go yet, so the picture could alter, but Labour appear to making sweeping gains, while the Tory vote is holding unexpectedly firm. As it stands, the local wing of Cameron’s party has actually gained a council, along with 22 councillors in the process. Stir in the likely result of the AV referendum, and the

Will there be TV debates at the next election?

One might have thought that the TV debates would become an immovable fixture in British general elections. But apparently not. Speaking at the launch of a new study of the 2010 election a couple of nights ago, Adam Boulton said that it was far from certain that they will feature at the next election. Will Straw tweeted the news at the time, but it seems to have slipped through the cracks as attention has been diverted elsewhere. Apparently, broadcasters and the parties have reached an impasse at this early stage in the electoral cycle. The Conservatives are reluctant to recommit themselves to something that they believe contributed to their failure

Boris takes on Dave over London’s strikes

The Telegraph’s James Kirkup has already highlighted Boris’s suggestion, yesterday, that the coalition is being “lily-livered” over strike laws. But, as there has been no let up in the Mayor’s rhetoric today, we really ought to mention it here too. “The government needs to get a move on,” is how he put it this morning, in reference to the sort of legislation that might hinder the RMT and their persistent Tube strikes. Boris’s latest broadsides against the coalition are all the more notable because he and Cameron were united, arm in arm, against the unions only a few months ago. In a joint piece for the Sun in January, they

James Forsyth

Calamity may lead to concessions for Clegg

If the expected happens today, the political debate will rapidly move to whether Cameron should offer some concessions to Clegg to bolster his position. I hear there are two camps in Downing Street on this question with Steve Hilton a particularly ardent advocate of the no more concessions line.   Hilton’s position may surprise some but makes sense when you consider how his public service reform programme has, as Ben Brogan writes today, already been diluted for political reasons.    My current expectation is that there won’t be many concessions to Clegg. One well placed Tory told me last night that “Clegg picked the question and the date. He can

Election day is here at last

The usual form, on mornings such as these, is to put up a post setting the scene for the elections ahead – although, really, there’s not much more to add than was said yesterday. Apart from a readers’ survey in the Metro this morning, the only poll to hit after yesterday’s ICM bombshell is a YouGov one for the Sun, and it gives No a 20-point lead. Even given the complications of turnout and geography, it looks as though Team No are heading for a straightforward victory. As if to underline his increased personal involvement in the campaign, and perhaps tie himself that little bit closer to the eventual result,

Your guide to tomorrow’s elections

In light of ICM’s latest poll, Lib Dems might be relieved to hear that tomorrow isn’t all about the AV referendum. But it’s a meagre sort of relief: they’re facing a drubbing in the local elections too. We’ve put together a quick guide to those elections, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, so that CoffeeHousers know what to look out for, and Lib Dems know what to fear. Here it is: England The main question hovering over England’s local elections is: how big will Labour’s gains be? There are around 9,400 seats up for contention, of which the Conservatives currently hold about 5,000; Labour, 1,600; and the Lib

James Forsyth

New ICM poll has No 36 — thirty six — points ahead

Tonight’s ICM poll is even worse for the Yes campaign than last night’s ComRes poll. The poll, in tomorrow’s Guardian, has Yes heading for defeat by a margin of more than two-to-one and in every single region of the country. The turnout adjusted numbers are No 68, Yes 32. If these last two polls are accurate, and it is difficult to estimate what the turnout will be tomorrow, it will be a monumental humiliation for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Defeat on this scale would take Lib Dem nervousness about what the coalition is doing to the party’s brand to a whole new level. Indeed, its effect would be