Theresa may

Friday

James Forsyth

Confident May tells audience, I had the balls to call this election

Theresa May turned in what, I think, was her best TV performance of the election tonight. May engaged with the questions more than she has in previous TV events, and was more confident and fluent than she had been on Monday night. After a prolonged Tory wobble, her performance will have steadied jangling Tory nerves. May pitched hard for the Brexit vote. She said that she had called the election ‘for Brexit’ and that if you voted Leave, you needed to make sure you got it. When she was accused of calling the election for political gain, she hit back saying that she had had the balls to call an

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Theresa May has become the Tories’ Gordon Brown

At the outset of this general election campaign one thing seemed clear: Labour would get everything they deserved but, alas, the Tories would not. That is, Jeremy Corbyn would lead Labour to a thoroughly-merited disaster and Theresa May would gain an ill-deserved, but whopping, victory. Well that was then and this is now as it looks, at least for the moment, as though this scenario could be reversed. The Tories, enduring a stinker of a campaign, may be punished just as thoroughly as they deserve to be but, if that is the judgement of the British people, it also requires voters to treat Labour with a gentle indulgence the party

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Corbyn bursts through 40 per cent in latest Ipsos Mori poll

Only a few weeks ago, the polls brought nothing but joy for the Tories. With just six days to go until election day, that’s no longer the case. An Ipsos MORI survey out today cuts the Conservative lead down to just five points. Labour’s support has burst through the 40 per cent mark – rising by six points since Ipsos MORI’s last poll on May 18th. The poll comes off the back of this week’s shock YouGov estimate, which suggested we could be heading for a hung Parliament. And YouGov’s updated election model for today doesn’t bring any better news for the Tories: it suggests that Theresa May will now fall

Steerpike Steerpike

Theresa May performs yet another U-turn

Given that Theresa May hasn’t performed one of her customary ‘strong and steady’ U-turns for over a week, it was about time she changed her mind on something. So, Mr S was relieved to read her interview with City AM editor Christian May. While the Prime Minister promises to defend the City in EU negotiations, it was the quick fire round that caught Steerpike’s attention. May is asked to pick which restaurant out of Coq D’Argent or Simpson’s Tavern she prefers: CM: Coq D’Argent or Simpson’s Tavern? TM: Simpson’s Tavern. When May plumps for Simpson’s Tavern, the editor lets her know this is also Nigel Farage’s favourite: CM: When I point out this is Nigel

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Are we heading for a coalition of chaos?

Theresa May’s warnings about a ‘coalition of chaos’ used to sound like empty threats. Not any longer. Since the publication of this week’s YouGov poll which suggested we could be heading for a hung Parliament, the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn making it to No.10 suddenly seems less unbelievable than before. But if May does lose her majority, Corbyn would not be able to govern alone. Make no mistake, says the Sun: ‘Labour could not govern without a coalition with the SNP’. So whatever Jeremy Corbyn might say about his plan for governing – and Brexit-  there’s little doubt that it would be the Scots who ‘would call the shots’. The

Thursday

The Spectator

May’s mistakes

On the eve of the US presidential election, experts at Princeton university decided that Donald Trump had a 1 per cent chance of being elected. Before the last general election, Populus, the opinion poll firm, gave David Cameron a 0.5 per cent chance of winning a majority. Much is made of the need to look at ‘the data’ when considering political arguments, but so often it is a wildly inaccurate guess with a decimal point at the end to give an aura of scientific specificity. So when we read that Jeremy Corbyn has just a 17 per cent chance of becoming prime minister, this does not mean that the election is in

Nick Hilton Nick Hilton

The Spectator Podcast: General shambles

On this week’s episode we look ahead to the General Election, now just days away, and ask whether Theresa May might conceivably have blown her chances, or if Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is still as unlikely as ever. And, for some light relief, we also be consider the role that handwriting plays in our digital society. First, the British public will be heading to the polls in just a week’s time, so we took a moment to reflect on the campaign so far. In his cover piece this week, James Forsyth decries the state of this election, saying that it has left Theresa May, particularly, in a weakened state. James joins

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Ignore all the bluster, the Tories will still win

This is the first general election since 1997 where I have not primarily been employed as a journalist, covering the story of the campaign and its participants. Of course, I’ve still been writing about it, but from a certain distance. I miss some of the peculiar entertainments of the political circus, and some of the freaks and wild animals that provide those entertainments. But by and large, it’s rather nice to be watching things from a little way off. Especially because that distance allows me to say things like this: a lot of journalists, and a lot of politicians (especially Conservative ones) have gone stark raving mad and are talking

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Should the Tories be panicking?

A YouGov poll suggesting we could be heading for a hung parliament caused a furore in Westminster yesterday – but should we believe it? The Times defends the estimate in its leader this morning, saying that while it’s right to treat the poll with ‘scepticism’, it says ‘the figures are based on interviews with many thousands of people and (uses) sophisticated statistical techniques’. The results might be ‘surprising’, the paper concedes, but that’s ‘precisely why they need to be scrutinised’. Admittedly, there are a few ‘caveats’: ‘the model takes only a snapshot’ – and voters ‘can still change their minds’. But one thing is clear: ‘the direction of travel’. The

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Weak and wobbly

When Theresa May decided to go for an early election, she transformed the nature of her premiership. Up to that point she had been the steady hand on the tiller, righting a ship of state buffeted by the Brexit referendum. By going to the country to win her own mandate, she sought to become more than that. She wanted her own sizeable majority and, in so doing, invited comparison with the two prime ministers who have done the most to shape modern Britain: Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair. She was asking to be judged against their electoral triumphs. At the start of this campaign, May looked comfortable in this company.

Hugo Rifkind Hugo Rifkind

Jeremy Corbyn’s one true virtue

Enough of all these vital, apocalyptic, existential elections. They don’t half wear you out. The Scottish referendum was vital and apocalyptic, so they said, because the wrong decision would have seen Britain crack like a plate, and Scotland spiral off into insane debt, and residual Britain fade in geopolitical importance. Or, on other side, Tory rule for a millennium, which no Scot could ever want. Hmmm. Then the 2015 election was vital and apocalyptic, too, because Ed Miliband… Ed Miliband… Hang on. What was the big problem with Ed Miliband? There definitely was one. Ah yes, his dad hated Britain. Also he was incompetent. Didn’t even know how many kitchens

Wednesday

The Spectator

After Theresa May’s missteps, a Corbyn victory is no longer inconceivable

On the eve of the US presidential election, experts at Princeton university decided that Donald Trump had a 1 per cent chance of being elected. Before the last general election, Populus, the opinion poll firm, gave David Cameron a 0.5 per cent chance of winning a majority. Much is made of the need to look at ‘the data’ when considering political arguments, but so often it is a wildly inaccurate guess with a decimal point at the end to give an aura of scientific specificity. So when we read that Jeremy Corbyn has just a 17 per cent chance of becoming prime minister, this does not mean that the election

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Listen: YouGov’s Joe Twyman defends shock election poll

Can we trust the pollsters? Bruised by Brexit and caught out by Trump, the psephologists claim they’ve finally learnt their lesson. If so, that’s a big problem for the Tories: today’s YouGov poll predicts that the party is on course for an electoral upset which could see them lose their majority. YouGov have been busy defending the numbers behind the headline this morning, and the company’s Joe Twyman has been doing just that on the Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast. So, given YouGov failed to get it right in 2015, why should we believe them this time? And will the pollsters end up tweaking their assumptions? Here’s Joe Twyman: ‘We are

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

YouGov poll suggests Tories could fall 16 seats short of overall majority

There’s a nasty shock for the Tories in the Times this morning, with the paper publishing a YouGov poll suggesting the party could lose 20 seats at next week’s election. The estimate says that we could be heading for a hung parliament and that the Conservatives might fall 16 seats short of an overall majority. Even more remarkably, YouGov’s numbers indicate Labour could up their tally of seats by almost 30. It’s difficult to overestimate just what a disaster such an outcome would be for Theresa May. The Prime Minister made the decision to call this election herself with only the guidance of her tightly-knit Downing Street team; if she fails

Tuesday

Steerpike

George Osborne finds that revenge is a dish best served daily

With Theresa May currently experiencing a rough patch in her election campaign, the Prime Minister is discovering fast who her friends really are. Unfortunately for May, her old Cabinet colleague George Osborne doesn’t appear to be on that list. Now that the former Chancellor is the editor of the London Evening Standard, the paper’s editorials have become a constant source of criticism for the government. Today’s was no exception. On the state of the Conservative campaign, the paper says the ‘campaign has meandered from an abortive attempt to launch a personality cult around Mrs May’. The editorial also described the 2017 Tory manifesto as the ‘most disastrous’ in recent history: ‘The

The Spectator

Theresa May attacks Jeremy Corbyn on Brexit, full transcript

Did you see the TV debate last night?  I have to say I thought Jeremy was an impressive performer and a tough adversary.  Well-prepared.  On top of his brief.  Knew the policy inside out.  Persistent to the last, he never gave up.  Yes, Jeremy Paxman definitely still has it. The strange thing about general election campaigns is that you don’t often get to see your opponent close up.  But last night, I did.  I saw Jeremy Corbyn close up on television and what I saw was revealing. Despite being a Member of Parliament for 34 years, despite being the Leader of the Labour Party for the last two years, he’s simply

Charlotte Henry

Theresa May’s willingness to change her mind is a good thing

‘When the facts change, I change my mind,’ John Maynard Keynes is (wrongly) claimed to have said. Whatever the origin of the quote, Theresa May seems to be taking it to heart – and, as a floating voter, I’m delighted. But it seems there aren’t many who share that view, given that May’s shifting stance on certain issues became such a major focus of her interview with Jeremy Paxman last night. I used to be a Lib Dem so I am fully aware of the kind of horror that a U-turn on major policy can bring. However, sometimes it can also show a quite sensible approach. After all, we all regularly change our

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Jeremy Paxman has become a national bore

So who came off worse in The Battle for Number 10, last night’s Channel 4 / Sky stand-off between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn? It was Jeremy Paxman. May and Corbyn were paragons of patience and sense in contrast with this oafish, boorish barker of rude and even pointless questions. Watching Paxo was squirm-inducing. He’s the angry drunk uncle who ruins every barbecue by yelling ‘BALLS’ at anyone who disagrees with him. I’m convinced Corbyn or May would have instantly won tens of thousands of new voters if they had told him to bugger off. It’s amazing how knackered Paxman’s schtick felt. Did we really lap this guff up in

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Jeremy Corbyn now finds the IRA question easy to answer

A week ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Manchester bombing, it would have been impossible to imagine that Jeremy Corbyn, rather than Theresa May, might benefit most from the interruption in the campaign. Corbyn is supposed to be weak on security and vulnerable to his terrorist-supporting past. Meanwhile, May stood to gain from the switch off the subject of social care, where she was fumbling badly. Yet after last night’s Channel 4 debate it is beginning to look a little different. The concentration on security and terrorism is beginning to play into Corbyn’s hands. He has been challenged so many times on the subject that he has worked out

Monday

Katy Balls

Theresa May gets her election campaign back on track

Tonight there will be sighs of relief in CCHQ after Theresa May put in a solid – if imperfect – performance in the Sky / Channel 4 ‘Battle for Number 10’ programme. After a difficult week which saw the Tory lead drop to five points, the Prime Minister navigated her way through a range of tricky topics from her dementia tax U-turn to cuts to school funding. Answering questions from the audience, May had the dubious honour of receiving the first heckle of the night for her claim that Labour’s manifesto was un-costed. However, despite some initial audience hostility, May managed to keep her cool. When an audience member asked her about the ‘so-called dementia tax’, May struck a