Theresa may

Sunday

Freddy Gray

Spread your bets on Theresa May’s majority

Where’s all the unpredictability in politics gone? After the hubbub about a ‘crisis of liberalism’ and the thrills of punting on Trump and Brexit, election betting in 2017 is beginning to look almost boring. Everybody who wasn’t crazy — or excessively paranoid about the return of fascism — knew that Emmanuel Macron would beat Marine le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election. He did. That funny-looking anti-Islamist Geert Wilders did not triumph in Holland. And now it looks as if Angela Merkel will win re-election in Germany in September. Closer to home, Theresa May looks all but certain to win a majority on 8 June —

Saturday

Katy Balls

Revealed: Conservatives revise down their internal election projections

The news that the Tory lead has dropped to just five points, according to a Times/YouGov poll yesterday, has been dismissed in some quarters as an exception to the polls, rather than the rule. However, even if you don’t buy that the Tory lead over Labour is now at its lowest since Theresa May came to power, it can’t be denied that the Conservative campaign has hit a wobble. I understand projections for the election result have shifted dramatically. The internal ‘ceiling’ (the best case scenario) has gone from a majority of near 200 in week one, to a majority around the 80 mark. The ‘floor’ is now a hung Parliament — which

The Spectator

A proper discussion about terrorism is the best way to honour Manchester’s dead

Until last week, it was thought that the jihadi threat was subsiding and the security services were increasingly able to disrupt any serious plot. The recent attacks involved knives or rented cars – deadly in the wrong hands but a far cry from the 7/7 attacks, or the seven-aircraft Heathrow aircraft bomb plot thwarted in 2006. Yet now, for the second time in our history, a suicide bomb attack has been perpetrated against the public. And this might show that things are getting worse. That as Isis is forced into retreat in Iraq and Syria, the jihadists are preparing to return to Britain with deadlier skills and tactics. While al-Qaeda focused

Friday

Ross Clark

Jeremy Corbyn’s speech is a trap for the Tories

The most dangerous thing about Jeremy Corbyn’s speech today, blaming terror attacks in Britain on wars we have fought abroad, is that it is partly true. The temptation for the Conservatives will be to show outrage at the words: ‘Many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services, have pointed to the connections between wars our government has supported or fought in other countries and terrorism here at home’ and to accuse Corbyn of exploiting the Manchester bombing for his own political gain. But they would be extremely foolish to do so because they will be unable to argue away the assertion that British military involvement in the Middle

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Could Theresa May blow this general election?

Until recently, the prospect of Theresa May flopping in this general election would have been absurd – but today’s YouGov poll shows her lead cut to just five points, less than a quarter of its peak. Converted into seats, that would mean a majority of just two MPs, down from the 17-strong majority achieved by David Cameron against Ed Miliband. At a time when the extraordinary is happening all the time, it is impossible to dismiss this opinion poll. The public like her style, but her shambolic U-turn over the so-called ‘dementia tax’ has given everyone cause to doubt whether she is as ‘strong and stable’ as she says she

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Is Corbyn really closing in on May?

Corbyn is closing in on May, the Times reports this morning, as a poll from YouGov shows the gap between the two parties is down to just five points with less than two weeks to go until election day. The latest numbers show the Conservatives have, once again, seen their support drop: this time by one point, down to 43 per cent. Labour meanwhile have enjoyed a three point bump, up to 38 per cent. If this were replicated come June 8th, it would be bad news for Theresa May: she would be a Prime Minister under pressure, with her party’s majority slimmed down to just two. Talk of a

Thursday

The Spectator

Portrait of the week | 25 May 2017

Home  Twenty-two people were killed and 59 wounded by a man who blew himself up, with a bomb containing metal fragments, in the foyer of Manchester Arena as crowds were leaving a concert by the American singer Ariana Grande, aged 23, who has a strong following among young girls. Of the wounded, 12 were children. Police named the suspected murderer as Salman Ramadan Abedi, aged 22, a Mancunian whose family come from Libya, which he had recently visited. Isis said it was behind the attack. A 23-year-old man was arrested the next day. The official threat level was raised to ‘critical’, meaning that an attack was expected imminently. Soldiers were

Toby Young Toby Young

Fraternity, solidarity and the spirit of 1945

My father worked as a fire warden during the Blitz, trying to contain the damage done by the Luftwaffe, and he witnessed more death and devastation than most soldiers saw on the frontline. Over a million houses in London were destroyed and nearly 20,000 civilians killed. But the horrors of the night were made more endurable by the atmosphere in the capital as day broke. All the petty distinctions that normally characterise life in a large city had fallen away. Strangers would stop and talk to each other. If anyone looked lost or confused, people would offer to help. Most adults had been up all night in makeshift air-raid shelters,

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

Will Corbyn’s supporters blame their election defeat on the Manchester attack?

The Manchester murders have given British politics its first conspiracy theory with a grain of truth in it. It may sound ghoulish to discuss the political consequences of an atrocity. But terrorism is a political crime, and we are in a general election campaign. Everyone is thinking that the Manchester attack passes the advantage to Theresa May. Soon they will be saying it too. It is easy to predict how the killings will be knitted into the left’s explanation for the defeat of 2017. Against the odds, Labour was doing well in the polls, Corbyn’s supporters will say. Why one survey had the opposition a mere nine points behind the

Nick Hilton Nick Hilton

The Spectator Podcast: The Islamist worldview

On this week’s episode, we reflect on the tragic events in Manchester and what can be done to prevent similar attacks in the future. We also look at the emergence of political courts in America, Russia, France and beyond, and tip which constituencies to have a flutter on in next month’s election. First, we took a moment to consider the terrorist attack that struck Manchester on Monday evening. With scores dead and injured, including children as young as 8, what can be done to stop another atrocity like this taking place? Douglas Murray says, in this week’s Spectator cover piece, that we have long understood the Islamist worldview, but failed to tackle its ideology.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will Theresa May ever resist a backlash?

Elections matter. They are fundamental to our way of life. So, while it is appropriate that the campaigns stopped on Tuesday to mourn the victims of the heinous terrorist attack in Manchester, democracy demands that they resume as quickly as possible. The terrorists must know that they will never change how our society functions. This is an odd election. Everyone assumes they know what the result will be and the real psephological debate is over just how big the Tory majority will be. On Monday, even the most panicked Tory was only concerned about what Theresa May’s U-turn would mean for the party’s margin of victory, not the actual result.

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

This is the worst Tory campaign ever

I am trying to remember if there was ever a worse Conservative election campaign than this current dog’s breakfast — and failing. Certainly 2001 was pretty awful, with Oliver Letwin going rogue and Thatcher sniping nastily from behind the arras. It is often said that 1987 was a little lacklustre and Ted Heath had effectively thrown in the towel in October 1974. But I don’t think anything quite matches up to this combination of prize gaffes and the robotic incantation of platitudinous idiocies. To have suggested that the hunting with dogs legislation might be subject to a free vote in the House of Commons was, whether you are pro hunting

James Tooley

First class

On the Today programme a month ago, Education Secretary Justine Greening was asked whether she could name any ‘respected figure or institution’ in favour of more grammar schools. She declined to answer, which was taken to mean that she couldn’t, and that there wasn’t. I’ve been travelling a lot this year, so wasn’t around to offer my support. I’m back now. Assuming that a professor of education at a Russell Group university is respectable enough, let me wade into the debate: yes, I’m in favour of more grammar schools. Educational experts against more grammar schools — of which there are plenty — point to the current evidence from England and

Wednesday

Will Heaven

Should there be troops on the streets?

In the wake of terrorist outrages such as Monday’s bombing, the British public tends to keep calm and carry on. We saw it in London after the Westminster attack in March; we saw it yesterday on the streets of Manchester – a stirring sight. That calmness in the face of evil is an attitude that has almost always been reflected by those who govern and lead us. Think of Margaret Thatcher’s steely response to the Brighton bombing. It’s the British way. But it has, until now, also been the British way not to put troops on the streets unless absolutely necessary. It’s a delicate balance: a prime minister has a

Tuesday

Katy Balls

UK terror threat level raised to ‘critical’, soldiers deployed to the streets

In her second statement of the day, Theresa May has announced that the national terror threat level has been raised from “severe” to the highest level,”critical”. She added that she has also deployed the military to help armed police by triggering Operation Temperer,  a protocol that sends troops to help police with security at airports, rail networks, harbours etc. This is the first time that the level has been at critical since the foiled 2006 Heathrow plot – defined as the prospect of a terrorist attack moving from being “highly likely” to being “imminent”. This has been done before, and both times it lasted for just a few days. But what we haven’t seen before is the mass deployment of up

The Spectator

Theresa May condemns ‘callous’ Manchester attack, full statement

I have just chaired a meeting of the government’s emergency committee COBR, where we discussed the details of – and the response to – the appalling events in Manchester last night. Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and the families and friends of all those affected. It is now beyond doubt that the people of Manchester and of this country have fallen victim to a callous terrorist attack. An attack that targeted some of the youngest people in our society, with cold calculation. This was among the worst terrorist incidents we have ever experienced in the United Kingdom, and although it is not the first time Manchester has

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Theresa May offers a defiant message after Manchester terror attack

Theresa May has just spoken from Downing Street about the terrorist attack in Manchester. She said that the police and the security services believed they know the identity of the suicide bomber, but do not wish to reveal it for now. She said that the bomber had blown themselves up by one of the exits from the arena at the end of the concert, which would mean that the attacker did not have to go through security. The police and the security services are, she said, currently trying to establish whether the attacker was operating alone or not.  This is the second statement responding to a terrorist attack that Theresa

Monday

James Forsyth

Theresa May forced to defend U-turn in her most difficult interview yet

Today was not a day that Theresa May will want to repeat anytime soon. In the morning, she had to U-turn on one of the centrepieces of her election manifesto and in the afternoon, she faced the most difficult interview she has had as Prime Minister. Theresa May never really got onto the front foot in her half-hour interview with Andrew Neil. She spent the first ten minutes of the interview claiming that the principles behind the Tories’ social care policy hadn’t changed, while Andrew Neil hammered the point that something has: there is now a cap whereas the manifesto had explicitly rejected one. May was also uncomfortable on the

James Kirkup James Kirkup

U-turns matter less than journalists think, especially if voters like the result

This is the latest in a series of posts that could be entitled ‘things I could never say when I was a political journalist but now I can.’  Today’s topic: U-turns. The bottom line: they don’t matter, or at least, they don’t matter anywhere near as much as most of the coverage of them suggests. Theresa May has changed her mind on social care. Political Twitter is still, as I type, in the sort of excited spasm that suggests that this is an event that will change EVERYTHING.  To some, Mrs May has shattered forever her image as a strong, steady leader. A slightly more sophisticated take suggests that she’s shattered

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why the ‘dementia tax’ U-turn is such a blow to Theresa May

U-turning on a manifesto commitment just days after it was announced would be embarrassing for any politician. But it is particularly humiliating when your whole campaign is based around the idea that you offer competent, ‘strong and stable’ leadership. But even leaving aside the immediate political repercussions, this U-turn is a deep blow to Theresa May and her team. For the social care policy was totemic of the way she is trying to change the party. She and her team want to make the Tories more concerned about the just managing than the better off and less deferential to property wealth. As the manifesto said, they considered their original proposals,