Theresa may

Tuesday

Nick Hilton

Labour’s decimation would be a disaster for Britain

Today’s polls suggest that Theresa May could be on track to secure a Commons majority of 150, reversing – in just 20 years – the landslide that was inflicted on the Tories in 1997. These figures, from the Daily Telegraph, reveal no fresh agony for Labour: already the worst case scenario being floated in Labour circles would involve a catastrophic loss of about 100 MPs. This is an apocalyptic vision, mainly propagated by centre-leaning folk who have seen their influence wane over the past two years, and is something of a long-shot (the bookies currently favour a Labour seat band of 150-199, but only price 100-149 at 5/2). But let’s say

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What does Emmanuel Macron mean for Brexit?

It was a badly kept secret in Westminster that very senior figures in the UK government wanted Francois Fillon to win the French presidential election. He was regarded as being the best candidate for Britain, and the one most likely to be pragmatic on Brexit. But with Fillon out, attention switches to Macron—the overwhelming favourite. Macron is emotionally and ideologically pro-EU. He has been clear that he doesn’t want a sweetheart deal for Britain. On his campaign visit to London, he talked aggressively about luring businesses to France post-Brexit. However, as Oliver Wright points out in a typically insightful piece in the Times this morning, one of Macron’s closest advisers

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Tories don’t need Zac back in Richmond. They need Luke Parker

Are the Conservatives sharp enough to be able to beat the Liberal Democrats in battleground Remain-voting seats? We hear today that they might put forward Zac Goldsmith as their candidate for Richmond Park – the same Zac Goldsmith who quit the party in protest at the Heathrow decision, then triggered a by-election and ran as an independent. But he lost to a Lib Dem. So now he has decided to rejoin the party and run again – and oddly, they’ve let him. He’s in the final three. To select him would be a huge tactical own goal for the Tories: as Neil Kinnock found out, when voters turn something down, they don’t like to be

Monday

Nick Boles

Why Matthew Parris is wrong about a Tory lurch to the right

Exaggeration is the political pundits’ stock in trade: nobody built a loyal readership on equivocation. But Matthew Parris’ recent commentary about the Conservative Party’s direction under Theresa May borders on the hysterical. A few weeks ago he used his Times column to hyperventilate about a Conservative Party ‘paralysed in the headlights of a dangerous surge of reckless populism and in thrall to its own right wing’. Last Saturday, he returned to the theme and wrote of a ‘deep, deep shift under way in our party…leaving anyone once attracted to the strong strand of tolerance and moderation we found powerful in the Conservative tradition feeling cowed, discouraged’. You would have thought

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Tony Blair is the messianic Remainer here to save us from ourselves

Here they come, Tony Blair and his tragic chattering-class army. The former PM, whose rictus grin and glottal stops still haunt the nation’s dreams (well, mine anyway), is on the march with his pleb-allergic mates in business and the media. Blair and the Twitterati, linking arms, united in their horror at the incalculable stupidity of northerners and Welsh people and Essex men and women and other Brexiteers, their aim as clear as it is foul. They’re here to save us from ourselves. ‘Tony Blair is trying to save Britain from itself’, as one report put it. Excuse me while I pop an anti-nausea pill. Yes, Blair, the political version of

Sunday

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s election gamble is paying off

Everything you need to know about the current state of the polls is summed up by the fact that one which puts the Tories at 40 per cent, a level that they haven’t hit in a general election for a quarter of a century, and 11 points clear is presented as a blow to them. Now, the reason that the Mail on Sunday has done this is because other polls have the Tories so far ahead that a mere 11 point lead looks rather anaemic. ComRes has the Tories at a jaw-dropping 50 per cent, with Labour on 25 per cent. YouGov puts the Tories on 48 per cent, and

William Cook

This election will be won or lost on the suburban battleground

In Westminster, all the general election chatter is about Brexit. Will Tory Remainers turn Lib Dem? Will Labour leavers desert Jeremy Corbyn? As polling day draws near, however, the Europe obsession must recede. Politicians may not be able to look past last year’s referendum, but voters will have moved on. MPs will find that, as before, the great issue of our time will be just one of many on the doorsteps. This summer’s battleground won’t be Brussels. It will be suburbia. Domestic matters will decide whether Theresa May returns to Downing Street with a fat majority, and no one is more domesticated than the average suburbanite. We are intensely local.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Theresa May’s great gamble

Theresa May has long been clear about what sets her apart from other politicians: she doesn’t play political games. When she launched her bid for the top job last year, she was clear that — unlike her rivals — she hadn’t succumbed to the temptations of Westminster. She told us that she didn’t drink in the bars or gossip over lunch. She invited the TV cameras into her first Cabinet meeting as Prime Minister to record her telling ministers that ‘politics is not a game’. The danger for May in calling an election three years ahead of schedule is that it looks a lot like game-playing. Has a 20-point poll

Saturday

Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson

Why foreign aid fails – and how to really help Africa | 22 April 2017

The British government is strikingly generous in foreign aid donation But if money alone were the solution we would be along the road not just to ameliorating the lives of poor people today but ending poverty for ever. The idea that large donations can remedy poverty has dominated the theory of economic development — and the thinking in many international aid agencies and governments — since the 1950s. And how have the results been? Not so good, actually. Millions have moved out of abject poverty around the world over the past six decades, but that has had little to do with foreign aid. Rather, it is due to economic growth

Katy Balls Katy Balls

What will be in May’s manifesto?

On Tuesday, Theresa May stood outside Downing Street and said that she was calling an early election so that she could get the ‘job done’ and take Britain out of the European Union. The Prime Minister claimed that without a snap vote, opposition parties would try to change Britain’s course because ‘the Government’s majority is so small’. But this doesn’t mean the Tories will stick with the 2015 Conservative manifesto. Both May and Philip Hammond have offered a glimpse of what old election promises they may bin in the 2017 manifesto. In an appearance in Maidenhead, May said that the government’s commitment to spending 0.7pc of national income on foreign

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Those who want a clear Brexit will need to make sure it is in the manifesto

Mrs May’s decision to call a snap general election is not very welcome, and I had thought she would think it too risky, but it makes sense — obviously because of Jeremy Corbyn and, a bit less obviously, because of public attitudes to her. She has brilliantly convinced people that she is a straightforward, unpolitical person who doesn’t descend to political games. This is untrue. She is, however, a person without childish vanity, celebrity hunger or media obsession. She benefits from a big cultural change, which descends from Mrs Thatcher, via all sorts of others — Angela Merkel, Ruth Davidson, Nicola Sturgeon. Women are now seen as stronger, more real

Toby Young Toby Young

The real victims of this snap election? The bankers’ wives

The people I feel most sorry for in the wake of Theresa May’s shock announcement are not moderate Labour MPs, nor even the pollsters, who really will be in trouble if they get another election wrong. No, it’s the bankers’ wives of west London. If the EU is going to be the No.1 issue in the campaign, and the Tories are standing on a pro-Brexit platform, how will the poor dears vote? On the one hand, they were very, very angry about the outcome of the EU referendum and, even today, they’re not above buttonholing leavers at cocktail parties and giving them the hairdryer treatment. They regard David Cameron as

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Expect the unexpected in Theresa May’s pointless poll

A general election is called and in a matter of hours a neutral and unbiased BBC presenter has likened our Prime Minister to Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Governments rise and governments fall, but some things stay just as they always were. It was Eddie Mair on Radio 4’s PM programme who made the comparison, while interviewing the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd. In fairness to Mair, he had been alluding to Theresa May’s apparent wish to create ‘unity’ within Westminster, a truly stupid statement within an address which sometimes made no semantic sense and sounded, to my ears, petulant and arrogant. Then along came the opinion pollsters to tell us exactly what

Friday

Isabel Hardman

The Tories don’t need silly pledges to scare off Labour in this election

We are coming to the end of the first week of an election campaign that few were expecting when this week began. The parties are drawing their battle lines: the Tories are warning of a happy Vladimir Putin and a ‘coalition of chaos’ involving the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems, while Labour is making this an anti-establishment election (though what precisely the Establishment is up to and which naughty coffee chains it involves remains vague, even for the party’s MPs promoting that message on the airwaves). The Lib Dems, meanwhile, had long worked out their pitch as the anti-Brexit party. Of course, not all Labour MPs are talking about

Jack May

Crosbyism is back, ready to bore us into voting Tory

Forget the phrases ‘long-term economic plan’ and ‘propped up by the SNP’, which came to define the 2015 election. Lynton Crosby, political mastermind and Conservative campaign director extraordinaire, has a new approach. It’s called ‘strong and stable leadership’ and its poster-girl is Theresa May. After having triggered the starting gun of the election earlier this week, the Prime Minister began her campaign with a speech in Bolton. It was pretty short, but it set the tone for the campaign over the next 50 days. ‘Strong and stable leadership,’ she said, over and over again. Expect to hear the same speech churned out throughout the campaign, with the odd news element sprinkled in for flavour, or

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Nigel Farage will always have more power outside Parliament

It’s easy to mock Nigel Farage over his decision to turn down an ‘easy win’ in Clacton or some other Westminster constituency in preference for the hard graft of the European Parliament and its excruciating regime of expenses and allowances. Easy, but quite likely wrong.  Whether or not he ever sets foot in Parliament, Farage can already claim to have changed British history. His role in the Brexit referendum result is debateable; his role in bringing about that referendum isn’t.   Just in case the story needs retelling, Farage did it by forming a connection between two issues: Europe and immigration. Until that linkage was made, Ukip was an ignorable

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Theresa May doesn’t trust enough people for a power ‘circle’. A triangle, maybe

The fact that nothing leaked about Mrs May’s snap election tells you much of what you need to know about her. It shows how iron is her discipline and how close her inner circle (so close, in fact, that it is a triangle rather than a circle). It suggests that she takes neither her cabinet nor her party into her confidence. It shows that if she wins the general election, her control of her administration will be much tighter than that of Margaret Thatcher (which was surprisingly loose) and even than that of David Cameron (which was surprisingly tight). Finally, it shows that if she loses, or gets a result

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Jeremy Corbyn does pose a threat to the Tories

Theresa May is riding high in the polls and there’s much talk of a Tory landslide – but that doesn’t mean the Government should rest on its laurels, says the Daily Telegraph. It’s vital, the paper says, that the PM does her best to ‘create a sense of urgency among the voters’; ‘They have to understand the dangers of not coming out to support her,’ the paper adds. Of course, some might laugh at the prospect of Corbyn making it to Number 10 – yet it’s just that sense of ‘impossibility’ that the Labour leader ‘hopes to exploit’. After all, a Corbyn government ‘would make the country poorer’ – something

Thursday

Andrew Marr

Diary – 20 April 2017

We are all drama queens, really, we political hacks; and so we were all thoroughly delighted by Theresa May’s Tuesday coup. I have long been arguing that we would have an election this year, and I had been beginning to feel lonely. But one big thing I got wrong: it had seemed to me in January that a Brexit election would shatter much party discipline, since the voters would be principally interested in where candidates stood on the Great Issue and both Tories and Labour were deeply divided about it. However, by framing the current contest in the way she has, May has deftly but brutally carved away the long

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The Spectator’s notes | 20 April 2017

The fact that nothing leaked about Mrs May’s snap election tells you much of what you need to know about her. It shows how iron is her discipline and how close her inner circle (so close, in fact, that it is a triangle rather than a circle). It suggests that she takes neither her cabinet nor her party into her confidence. It shows that if she wins the general election, her control of her administration will be much tighter than that of Margaret Thatcher (which was surprisingly loose) and even than that of David Cameron (which was surprisingly tight). Finally, it shows that if she loses, or gets a result