Treasury

Some advice for Osborne

In the latest issue of the magazine, a flock of politicians, commentators and economists offers George Osborne some advice for growing the economy. There are ten contributions in total, but here are three for CoffeeHousers’ consideration: Arthur Laffer Chairman, Laffer Associates Cut the 50p tax Reducing the burden which government places on the economy, through tax cuts, is the surest way to promote growth. I have never heard of a country that taxed itself into prosperity. Yet Britain last year raised the top rate of income tax from 40 per cent to 50 per cent. For more economic growth, and more tax revenue, this rate should be lowered immediately. This

Osborne sells off the Rock

‘Sir Richard Branson set to buy Northern Rock.’ So read the headlines in November 2007 — and now they’re finally true. It has been announced this morning that Virgin Money is going stump up £747 million to return the bank to the private sector. This, says George Osborne, ‘is an important first step in getting the British taxpayer out of the business of owning banks.’ By the looks of it, Virgin will be paying less than they would have done four years ago, but they have also had to make various assurances about how they will handle the Rock. When Branson’s bid failed in 2007, and the bank was nationalised,

Halfon seeks to cool the inflationary fires

Don’t whip out the cava just yet, CoffeeHousers. Inflation, in both its CPI and RPI incarnations, may be down on last month’s figures, but the latest numbers are hardly cause for jubilation. At 5.0 per cent in October, CPI is still over double the Bank of England’s target figure, and it’s far outpacing the average growth in people’s wages. The truth is that living costs remain constrictive, and at a time when the economy could teeter back into cataclysm at any moment.      Hence Robert Halfon’s motion on fuel prices, which will be debated in the Commons today. It’s another one of those motions triggered by an e-petition (112,189 signatures

Son of Brownies

How generous of Ed Balls to publish a transcript of his interview on the Politics Show earlier, so that we can amble through it on a Sunday evening. It contains, as you’d expect, more disagreeable parts than agreeable, and nothing more so than his comments about the national debt, deficit and all that. Two of his arguments, in particular, are worth alighting on because they’re Brownies in the classic mould, and will probably be served up again and again: 1) ‘After the Second World War we took a number of years to repay our much higher level of debt. The government and Vince Cable have tried to get this done

Where does Cameron stand on 50p now?

One letter, that’s all it takes. After 38 City types wrote a letter to the Daily Telegraph this morning, urging George Osborne to drop the 50p rate of income tax, Westminster types have been chirruping on about it ever since. All three party leaders have had their say, except, so far as I can tell, Ed Miliband — although Ed Balls stood in for him anyway. Of all the responses, it is David Cameron’s that is the most noteworthy and perhaps even surprising. Speaking about deficit reduction on the Jeremy Vine Show earlier, the PM was unequivocal: ‘We have to try and do this in a way that is fair

Fraser Nelson

Britain: a safe haven?

The Bond Bubble is growing even larger over Britain, pushing 10-year yields down to 2.1 per cent. The FT splashes on it this morning, and uses the “safe haven” line, which is also being advocated by the Conservatives. Understandably. If I were George Osborne, I’d spin this as a standing ovation from the markets for my deficit reduction plan. In fact, it’s just a grim reflection of the fact that Britain’s low-growth, high-debt economy is less unattractive than Italy’s. But it does have another side effect, that people won’t quite admit to. Osborne’s cost of borrowing is going down (partly due to expectations of more QE) and since the Budget,

Osborne gets frank with Europe

George Osborne’s attack on the European Commission and his fellow finance ministers, for wasting time talking about a financial transactions tax when it is not going to happen, is quite a significant moment. It marks an attempt by Britain to knock this idea, which would hit this country far harder than anywhere else in Europe, off the agenda.   The Treasury, the Foreign Office and Number 10 have become increasingly exasperated about how this issue keeps coming up again and again. This feeling has been intensified by the fact that this issue is being discussed even as the crisis in the Eurozone is worsening by the hour.   Osborne’s remarks

The pensions battle rages on

An “enhanced offer” is how Treasury types are describing the revised pensions package that will be put before union bosses today — and so it is. As far as we can tell, concessions have been made in three areas: i) the changes to public sector pensions will be spread across seven years, rather than five; ii) the accrual rate, which determines how much of a workers’ salary is notionally set aside for their pension each year, will be made more generous; and iii) the “cost ceiling,” which sets a cap on long-term taxpayer contributions, will be raised for various schemes. There could be more on offer, too. But all that,

Growth hits 0.5% in Q3 — a nation shrugs

The growth number for the third quarter of this year is out, and it’s a little bit better than expected: 0.5 per cent. Many economists were saying that we’d have to hit around 0.4 per cent to recoup the growth lost to the Royal Wedding and Japanese Tsunami in Q2, so we’ve managed that. But, that aside, this is not the time for party poppers and champagne corks. It may not be Econopocalypse, but it’s not Mega Growth either. We are still living in a bleak, borderline stagflationary environment. Besides, I still reckon that we oughtn’t get especially worked up about these quarterly figures anyway. For starters, the obsession over

Breaking: Ed Balls has a point

The games have started a day early, folks. The latest quarterly growth figures are set to be released tomorrow morning, but already Ed Balls is waxing insistent about what they have to be: “Simply to stay on track for the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most recent forecast, already downgraded three times, we will need to see growth in the third quarter of 1.3 per cent. And to reach the OECD’s latest and more pessimistic forecast, we will need to see a figure next week of 0.9 per cent.” To be fair — and this is not something you’ll read often on Coffee House — the Shadow Chancellor has a point,

How to untie the tax knot

Yet another HMRC scandal this week, as a new HMRC computer discovered millions who have paid too much or too little in tax. A letter from the tax man will land on their doorstep in the next few months. Some will enjoy the dubious pleasure of getting money back that should never have been taken in the first place. Others face the painful task of finding the money to catch-up on tax they didn’t pay before.   As Pete said in his post on Wednesday, this isn’t the first time. When the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee looked at similar problems last year, they said that the Department had

Trust in bricks and mortar

If George Osborne is serious about growth, a relatively easy decision awaits him: to stimulate the economy by spending more on housebuilding. David Cameron knows there’s a problem, and during Tory conference announced a “Tory Housing Revolution” to tackle the failing housing market, and plans to boost Right to Buy and release more land for house building that will deliver 200,000 new homes and create 400,000 jobs. All welcome, suggesting the government has recognised the role that housing can play in creating growth. But if the Treasury is looking to stimulate demand in the short term, there’s still much more that could be done. Investment in housing can happen fast.

The full story on NHS spending

I make no apologies for returning to government spending on health. The Tory promise in the election to ring-fence health spending and increase it in real terms every year even during a period of public spending cuts was distinctive and much-touted during the 2010 election campaign. A quick recap: during my extended interview with Health Secretary Andrew Lansley which went out live on the BBC News Channel on Sunday evening, I suggested that higher inflation than anticipated when the health spending promise was given would make it more difficult to meet the Tory promise of real annual rises. Indeed I put to him a projection for real health spending which

Osborne’s big step

As George Osborne was addressing Tory conference, Standard and Poor reaffirmed Britain’s triple A rating. For the Osborne team, it sent out the perfect message — their deficit strategy is keeping the nation creditworthy. It was their piece of conference theatre for this year. The Chancellor’s address was a sombre affair. But, in some ways, it was his most impressive conference performance. It was a classic Osborne blend of politics and economics, but distinguished by a clear and precise analysis of why the economy was not recovering. Osborne’s big policy announcement was that the Treasury was now exploring credit easing. I’ll have more on this soon, but essentially the idea

Tyrie’s blast spices up pre-conference

Treasury Committee Chairman, Andrew Tyrie, has shaken the nascent Tory conference with a coruscating statement about the government’s growth plan and general legislative programme. He writes, in a detailed policy document for the Centre for Policy Studies that is political in its emphasis as much as it is economic: ‘There is much to do, and it is not just a question of gaps in policy. A coherent and credible plan for the long-term economic growth rate of the UK economy is needed. The Big Society; localism; the green strategy — whether right or wrong; these and other initiatives have seemed at best irrelevant to the task in hand, if not

Cameron’s energy price headache

The list of things that will be Big Politics when Parliament returns from its summer break is growing all the time: growth, the post-riot clean-up, the undeserving rich, multiple squeezes, and so on. But few will have has much everyday resonance as another item on the list: rising energy prices. This has been a problem for some time, of course, thanks to a toxic combination of trickle-down green measures, oil price spikes, and financial effrontery from the energy companies. But it looks only to get worse. This morning’s Telegraph reports on an internal Downing Street document — entitled “Impact of our energy and climate policies on consumer energy bills” —

Untangling the 50p knot

The 50p tax rate is seen by some as a way of tackling the “undeserving rich” discussed in this week’s Spectator. For others, it is a counterproductive imposition driven by envy. The primary practical justification for allowing wealthy people to retain their earnings is that it empowers them to invest in productive enterprises. Over 80 per cent of the funding for business start-ups comes from personal savings or loans from family and friends. And just now we need to give the maximum encouragement to people with the determination to start new businesses. Opponents of a tax cut will no doubt say that wealthy people will not invest in enterprise but

The quiet man barks

Almost exactly a year ago, Tony Blair’s memoirs wafted into bookshops to cause a stir ahead of conference season. Now it it seems that Alistair Darling’s, due out next Wednesday, will do exactly the same. Judging by the extracts published over at Labour Uncut, the quiet man of the last Labour government will splash his simmering frustrations and enmities right across the page. Gordon Brown, he will say, became increasingly “brutal and volcanic”. Mervyn King was “amazingly stubborn and exasperating”. And Ed Balls and Shriti Vadhera will be accused of “running what amounted to a shadow treasury operation within government”. But the most eyecatching revelation, and perhaps the one with

Treasury agrees Swiss bank tax

First came the Germans and then came the Brits. The UK Treasury has secured an agreement with authorities in Zurich to tax the assets of UK citizens held in Swiss banks to reduce on tax avoidance and stamp out evasion. The deal will follow the lines of that which Switzerland made with Germany last month. The FT has details: ‘Taxes on future income will be withheld at a rate of 48 per cent, corresponding to the top 50 per cent rate that now applies to Britain’s highest earners. A one-off levy of between 19 and 34 per cent will be applied to all Swiss accounts held by UK residents, with the

Government expected to renew growth strategy

The word flying around Westminster this evening is that the government is going to announce a fresh package to stimulate growth tomorrow. In line with recent reports, the expectation is that new enterprise zones will be unveiled. Enterprise zones are, of course, the linchpin of the chancellor’s current strategy, offering generous tax breaks for start-up industries, relaxed planning regulations and investment in state-of-the-art broadband, so this would not be a novel move. But an announcement would be timely nonetheless. Lamentable inflation figures released today are set to be joined by poor employment figures tomorrow, suggesting that economic and business confidence may be becoming even more tentative, especially in deprived areas. The grim continental situation is also a matter of grave