Treasury

Barometer | 21 April 2016

European bogeymen Michael Gove said ‘remain’ campaigners were spreading tales of bogeymen. But what is a bogeyman? Appropriately enough, the concept of an imagined monster is a pan-European concept which has exercised the right to free movement for centuries. — The boggel-mann has been terrifying children in Germanic cultures since the Middle Ages, as has the bussemand in Scandinavian countries. In Dutch, he became the boeman. — Middle English had its bugge-man and Scotland its boggarts — the latter suggesting a possible connection with marshy ground. But possibly the earliest bogeyman was bugibu, a monster in a French poem written in the 1140s. Reversed forecasts A Treasury report claimed that

The Treasury’s prophecies

The Treasury has announced that an EU exit ‘could leave households £4,300 a year worse off’. Since that only ‘could’ be the case, it could also not be the case, and given the accuracy of the Treasury’s prophecies for one year ahead, let alone 14, one wonders what odds the Treasury would offer on that outcome. The ancients had far better prophets. One was the augur: he took the auspices to determine whether a course of action was wise or not (auis ‘bird’ + spicio ‘I observe’). Marking out an area of the sky, he watched for birds that flew into it. Those flying left to right were propitious, right to

Cut the claptrap

So far the campaign for the EU referendum has resembled a contest as to which side can spin the most lurid and least plausible horror stories. On the one hand, the ‘in’ campaign claims that we’ll be £4,300 worse off if we leave; that budget airlines will stop serving Britain and that we will become more prone to terror attacks. Not to be outdone, the ‘out’ side warns that we will be crushed by a fresh avalanche of regulation and immigration, and more prone to terror attacks. The tone of the debate was summed up by Michael Gove this week when he accused the ‘in’ campaign of treating the public

Leave.EU hit back at Osborne over Brexit comments: ‘if this is our economic team, we are in deep s–t’

George Osborne’s claim that the Treasury thinks Brexit would make you £4,300 worse off has gone down like a cup of cold sick with the Leave camp. While many Brexiteers have hit back in less than polite terms, it’s Leave.EU who win the award for ‘most blunt response’. In light of the claims, Arron Bank’s Brexit group have added a new picture to their Facebook group. The banner reads: ‘If this is our key economic team we are in deep s–t’. It seems that now Leave.EU are out of the race in terms of winning the official designation, they are able to speak freely.

Tom Goodenough

The Coffee House podcast: George Osborne’s Brexit warning

George Osborne has warned today that Brexit will cost each household in the UK around £4,500. The Chancellor also said leaving the EU would make Britain ‘permanently poorer’. But is there any truth in Osborne’s claims? In this Spectator Coffee House podcast, Fraser Nelson joins Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth to discuss the figures and whether the numbers add up. Speaking on the podcast, Isabel Hardman says the Treasury report shows a change in argument by the Government in making the case for staying in the EU: ‘The really interesting thing about this is that George Osborne is doing this at all. He and his Tory colleagues at the start

Fraser Nelson

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report

Sometimes, George Osborne’s dishonesty is simply breathtaking. Let’s set aside the way he has positioned himself over the years (if he believed that leaving the European Union ‘would be the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound’ he might have told us – and his constituents – earlier, rather than proceeding with the farce of renegotiation). But it’s his maths, today, which shames his office – and his use of this maths to make the entirely false suggestion that the Treasury thinks Brexit would make you £4,300 worse off. For anyone who cares about honesty in politics, and the abuse (and reporting) of statistics, this is an interesting case study. His chosen date is 2030. By then,

Watch: John McDonnell heckled in Commons debate – ‘shut up your face’

Punch and Judy politics is clearly the mood of the moment in the House of Commons. Last week, David Cameron offered Corbyn some motherly advice on his dress sense, while a Tory MP heckled Jeremy Corbyn by yelling ‘who are you?’ during an EU debate. This morning, it was Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s turn to be on the receiving end of some Chamber abuse. After trying to get the Government to withdraw its proposals over regulatory regimes for senior bankers, he sat back down but didn’t quite get the answer he expected. Before Chief Secretary to the Treasury Greg Hands stepped up to reply, a Tory MP on the other side

Katy Balls

Treasury questions: knives out for George Osborne over Brexit

As expected, there was one topic which dominated Treasury Questions today and that was the EU. The Chancellor did his best to hold his nerve as he faced strong opposition — in the shape of MPs in his own party. It’s a rare occasion when George Osborne is able to find more support in the Labour benches than his own but that’s what happened today as Tory MP after Tory MP went into attack mode over the government’s handling of the EU referendum. Andrew Tyrie, the chair of the Treasury Committee, gave the criticisms an air of authority as he kicked things off by calling Osborne out on the use of Article 50

David Cameron is going to have to give the SNP what it wants

All Westminster might be agog with the latest shenanigans vis-a-vis the got-to-happen-at-some-point EU referendum but most sentient folk in this blessed land are magnificently uninterested in the matter. Not even this morning’s Telegraph splash – ‘Attorney General may back Brexit’  – can stir them from their slumber. At best the majors will have asked, over their E&B this morning, ‘Who is the Attorney General these days?’ North of the border, matters are just as quiet even though another great question remains unsettled. As yet, you see, there is no agreement on the terms of a ‘fiscal framework’ which will underpin the relationship between the finances of the devolved parliament in Edinburgh and the

More Google woes at the Treasury

Oh dear. It’s not turning out to be a great week for staff at the Treasury. After George Osborne declared that a £130m tax settlement they had reached with Google was a ‘major success’, he faced a cross-party backlash as it was pointed out that the internet giant had only paid a tax rate of three per cent. As anger grows over the arrangement, both Google and the Treasury have been attracting negative publicity on a daily basis. Now Treasury staffers have been dealt another blow. Mr S hears that internet at the Treasury cut out on Thursday morning for a number of hours — meaning staff couldn’t even use Google.

John McDonnell vs. George Osborne on tax credits: a surprisingly calm and serious affair

George Osborne and John McDonnell went head-to-head at Treasury Questions today and one topic predictably dominated: tax credits. There was a charged atmosphere in the Commons as the shadow chancellor explained ‘the Chancellor has a choice before him’ and outlined his proposal for reversing the planned cuts to tax credits. The plan differs somewhat from Osborne’s: ‘He can push on with the tax giveaways to multinational corporations. He can press on with tax cuts to the wealthiest few in inheritance tax that he announced in his summer budgets. Or he can reverse those tax breaks for the few and instead go for a less excessive surplus target in 2019-20 and be in

George Osborne hires Economist journalist to chair Council of Economic Advisers

George Osborne has recruited Richard Davies, The Economist’s economics editor, to replace Rupert Harrison as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Coffee House understands. This position is essentially the Chancellor’s top economic adviser, although Thea Rogers has taken on Harrison’s chief of staff role. Harrison was one of the most influential figures in the last government and was responsible for creating and implementing much of the government’s economic policy — so much so that the Chancellor joked at his leaving party ‘it has been an honour to play a role in the Harrison chancellorship’. He left the Treasury after the general election and has since gone to work in the City. His replacement has plenty of experience

Revealed: Top secret Treasury plan

Budget day may have been and gone, but that doesn’t mean the Treasury team have been taking it easy. Mr S has got wind of a very important top secret Treasury email sent by an official to lobby journalists this afternoon: Good to know they’re hard at work. Update: So it turns out that the Treasury did not actually mean to reveal this intel to the lobby. Since Mr S’s disclosure, a new email has done the rounds trying to do some damage limitation.

The wrong man

For the final three years of his 18-year career at Goldman Sachs, Jim O’Neill, the Treasury’s new commercial secretary with responsibility for developing the Northern Powerhouse, served as chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the company’s least-regarded and most bothersome unit. While two younger executives ran the business, O’Neill was dispatched to faraway conferences to bore audiences of docile suits with his views on whether Nigeria or Malaysia offered a better investment opportunity. When finally in early 2013 he resigned his sinecure, he was not replaced and his title was mothballed. Since then, he has been all but marching up and down Whitehall wearing a sandwich board pleading for a

Danny Alexander’s diary: Trying to put an undercover reporter at ease, and the unicorn poop question

It’s dangerous, in my line of work, to promise you’ll be anywhere by 8 p.m. I made this mistake recently, saying I’d turn up to a dinner after a Budget discussion — a ‘quad’ meeting, where I sit with the Prime Minister, George Osborne and Nick Clegg. We’ve been doing this for five years, so have come to know each other pretty well. Not that we all agree; on the night in question, Nick was angry about something (I won’t say what) and our meeting ran on. I headed back with him to Dover House, a magnificent building where I was based during my tenure as Scottish Secretary. A great

Why is the NHS ring-fenced but the justice system isn’t?

Earlier this week, Sadiq Khan MP ‘admitted Labour could not reinstate £600m of legal aid cuts imposed by the government’. These are cuts which continue to have a very real impact on our society. They’ve left parents unrepresented when family judges are considering the future care of their children. They have deterred workers who are racially or sexually discriminated against in the workplace from bringing actions in the employment tribunals and priced out those who have suffered loss from bringing claims in the civil courts. The cuts have also driven the best lawyers away from publicly-funded civil work into private practice, and they have dried up the recruitment of junior barristers. We

Labour fails to turn up to work for Treasury questions

The Commons is pretty quiet at the moment, draining of energy earlier and earlier in the week as MPs head out to their constituencies. So quiet, in fact, that Labour seems to have given up on using departmental question times as a forum for making government ministers uncomfortable or piling any political pressure on their opposite numbers. Yesterday’s Work and Pensions Questions were pretty lacklustre from an opposition attack point of view, but today’s Treasury questions were far worse. Tory MPs had turned up with piles of sickly sweet loyal questions to ask, most running along the lines of ‘is the Chancellor aware that he’s doing a fantastic job?’ The

Jeremy Vine and the truth about government spending

Those who complain about the BBC (myself included) usually only refer to a small part of a massive and divergent operation. Nicky Campbell on Radio 5 is just superb – not a hint of bias in any of his breakfast show. Jeremy Vine, too, is pretty fair and balanced. He has just ran a report on the truth about public spending, asking if we are being deceived about debt. I was invited on to talk about it, as was Sir Simon Jenkins (who wrote about spending in the Guardian here). Our exchange, and the BBC package, can be heard here. listen to ‘Fraser Nelson and Simon Jenkins discuss the deficit’ on

How Brussels’ sanctions could bleed Britain dry

London is at risk of another blow from Brussels. Currently, the UK Supreme Court is hearing a sanctions case involving the Iranian Bank Mellat, which could prove pivotal in the on-going controversy surrounding the many Russian companies and individuals subject to financial restrictions. Acting at Brussels’ behest and under the Counter Terrorism Act of 2008, the Treasury blacklisted the Iranians for their alleged role in furthering Teheran’s nuclear ambitions. As a direct result, UK financial institutions were prohibited from doing business with the lender. Irked by this development, Bank Mellat challenged the decision both with the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice (ECJ) and Britain’s Supreme Court – and won. In

Ed Balls outflanked by Tory backbenchers at Treasury questions

Ed Balls had two great lines of attack today at Treasury questions, but didn’t really manage to get any traction with either. He started his stint in the Chamber by trying once again to push the Chancellor on when the Treasury knew about the ‘surprise’ £1.7 billion EU bill, then moved on to the Conservatives’ failure to meet their net migration target. The first attack simply led to George Osborne saying this: ‘First of all, may I say that it is very good to see the shadow Chancellor in his place? We had heard disturbing rumours that there was going to be a shadow Cabinet reshuffle. We waited nervously by